olafminesaw

Comparison of GFS, UKMET and Euro (0z)

Compari

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

GFS-FV3 goes south a bit, now hits the NC/SC border.

Bad news for Wilmington. It's quite plausible that Wilmington could get the RFQ, and at a trajectory perpendicular to the coast. It's too early to speculate on exact landfall of course, but earlier I really thought Wilmington had dodged a bullet.

Are there any mechanisms which might cause the precip shield to eventually get displaced from the center like what happened with Mathew? I remember that not being modeled well at all, but it kept shifting more inland.

There's swath of 20-30" of rain near the coast on the GFS. The Euro and UKMET had totals over 40" . The freshwater flooding alone is going to be worse than Mathew somewhere.

Great analysis here (It continues in the comments below the tweet):

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039404118052237312

The visible loop shows the eye just about cleared out apart from some Cirrus.

To kick off the 0z models, the ICON takes a pretty decent shift to the left with a landfall around Cape Lookout.

Just now, hlcater said:

Gotta agree with leroy though. Same 5 or 6 people continuously ruining the threads with stupidity.

Well, part of the problem has to be that no one discusses tropical unless it poses a threat to the US. So if the unwritten rules haven't been written before things get crazy, there are basically no rules

Just for funzies, I made an ugly landfall probability map

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The HWRF is an absolute outlier. Takes PTC 7 from a wave to an 80kt hurricane by hour 51. I have to take this with a grain of salt, but I think it's worth mentioning that PTC 7 is small, and in a space that has a lot of uncertainty (intensity forecasting) there is even more with a small circulation that can ramp up quickly. 

And an unpleasant track for New Orleans to boot.

The EPac has surpassed its average annual ACE of 132, with Lane up to 34. It may even approach Hector's total if it can keep itself together for a while.

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Probably up to 155MPH. Didn’t ever think a few days ago this had any chance of reaching cat 5.

I bet they won't upgrade simply as to not cause undue panic for Hawaii.

6 hours ago, Chinook said:

This is the best GOES-W IR satellite image of Hurricane Hector I can find on any NOAA web page. The NOAA tropical cyclone floaters web page has now become defunct for GOES-E and GOES-W as there are no floaters. I am wondering if maybe these floaters for GOES-W exist but it's just not obvious how to view them. Clearly, Hurricane Hector is best viewed from GOES-W.

here is web site I am complaining about:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

I couldn't find much either. This site has some very nice imagery, but it doesn't update frequently 

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/fnmoc/tropical.html

From the WPC heavy rainfall discussion, flash flooding a concern again today:

 PWs near 2 inches (2.5
standard deviations above normal) and modest deep-layer
instability should support organized convection along and ahead of
the boundary. Lift will be enhanced by a pre-frontal mid-level
shear axis and broadly diffluent flow between the retrograding
upper ridge and trough moving across east-central Canada.
Meanwhile, the uptick in sw-wsw low level flow ahead of the
surface front (25-30 kts) will foster backbuilding convection and
cell training, especially over the Slight risk region later this
afternoon and evening when the low-level inflow exceeds and
becomes more parallel to the 850-300 mb mean wind (Corfidi vectors
in opposite direction of the low-level inflow, thus bolstering
upwind propagation). In addition, much of the Slight risk area
(especially western PA and eastern OH) has lower FFG given the wet
antecedent soils. In fact, the latest (00Z) HREF 40 km
neighborhood probabilities of 3 hourly QPF exceeding the FFG peak
between 50-60% across far eastern OH and western PA between 21-00Z
this afternoon and evening.

It's no surprise there's flash flooding in texas with moisture being pulled from the pacific, the Caribbean, and right off the extra warm gulf

Yet another Arabian peninsula landfall, it's looking rather impressive on satellite and radar.

3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

If it starts in earnest after sun goes down Sat...

It comes down to timing and rates. Without both I'm not optimistic. But the high end potential of 6-10" would be epic. I love low probability events when they work out.

Light non-accumulating snow is going to ruin my love of snow I swear. It may as well be drizzle.

It's good to see some decent snow with the deform band on the HRRR. Hours and hours of +/- 40 degree rain has been thoroughly depressing. If this storm were in January we would have probably had an epic sleet storm.

3 minutes ago, snowlover91 said:

I wouldn't use that map, I'm not sure what it uses to determine what is "snow" but soundings indicate rain for a large portion of those areas. The Kuchera ratio will give you a much better idea of where areas might see snow.

Just a little different, lol 

1 minute ago, shahroz98 said:

NAM ?

Yes

A warm nose is showing up this run. Verbatim would be pretty epic, but I don't like the look in general.

My concern is that there is less cold air aloft than previously modeled. IMBY the column doesn't get colder than 27-28 on the Euro. So I could see flipping back to rain in the lighter precip. (assuming we even get heavy enough precip. to get snow.

It's back (would be a special kind of brutal verbatim IMBY)

Let's get this party started