olafminesaw

2 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I don't know, I'd certainly think about including the Charlotte metro up through the Triad. People here have done absolutely nothing to prepare in any way. Should be interesting tomorrow.

It's funny to me how much hype there was surrounding Florence, even after we knew for sure it wasn't going to be a big deal apart from some flooding. This should be equivalent or worse, and I've hardly heard a thing about it. Blame the media I guess.

Most are weak, but wow, what a lot of couplets.

Quiet around here, but perhaps what will in many ways be the worst part of the storm, still to come.

Just now, pugsgirl13 said:

I'm in Greensboro N.C. Its really windy here. How bad do you think it will be? Should I worry?

Winds should remain more or less where they are right now for a long while. Flooding rains may be a concern, but totals over 6" should stay to our south and the higher terrain.

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Last couple of frames on radar almost seemed as if she was starting to move wnw a bit. Just my eyes, or anyone else notice it? Might just be a wobble. 

Seems like land interaction forced it south, and now it's readjusting back to the expecting heading.

Full landfall loop

https://i.imgur.com/x5kwJJm.gifv

3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Jeff Piotrowski just had a gas station overhead blow away, pretty sure he's in Jacksonville

 

Not the highest quality construction on that one

8 minutes ago, AlaskaETC said:

Why are so many people bitterly disappointed by a weakening hurricane?

Probably Autism. Mostly. Speaking as someone who can't help but be a little disappointed, and wishes I wasn't, but is drawn to extreme weather like a fly to a light.

Mesmerizing 

3 minutes ago, rclab said:

For the politicians it was C.Y.A., with, of course, the best intentions.

IMHO it's better to risk having traffic jams two days before a category 4 makes landfall in VA beach, than to have people disregard evacuations next time around.

14 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yay NAM discussion!

And here's what I learned:

It may partly be a function of a different part of the eye being exposed, but it appears that Flo has taken a big step to the West over the past few hours.

The whole NE half of the storm looks quite healthy, especially in the last few frames. if shear lets up somewhat, I don't see why it wouldn't restrengthen somewhat to a legit cat 3.

33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

everyone show me your location on a map and i'll tell you if you're going to die or not

Jacksonville would be decimated if the GFS is how it played out.

There's no dry air to speak of that may be ingested on landfall, which is rather remarkable.

3 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

It sure does. It’s dead center of the 50” contour and there’s nothing higher after that so I guess that’s as high as the product will show in terms of the contours but that’s def 93”. There’s no way that can happen, can it?

It has 30 straight hours of 1.5" per hour or higher rates.  I can't imagine that can happen...

Does. Does that say 93"?

I saw a, blow Florence away with fans, campaign on Facebook. I guess it's working, because models are trying their best to keep it offshore. 

Convection is starting to fire west of the core where it's been sheared, in addition to the impressive convection on the western side of the eyewall

24 hour precipitation forecast:

The Euro run would be terrifying for people who decide to stay in Wilmington. Hours upon hours of the eyewall wobbling towards or away from the city, eventually making it onshore. Wilmington gets about 48 hours of hurricane strength gusts. Not to mention the surge and over two feet of rain.

Headed for Savannah at 120

Doesn't appear to make landfall this run, but drift just offshore