olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Yeah, I almost feel like the surface low being further south initially, hurts the potential for a good initial thump for those of us north of 40
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Apologies if already posted, but he's one of the best snow forecasters out there IMO
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Nasty sounding fro Raleigh. Good to finally get some clarity on precip type, with the 3km NAM coming into range
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2 days ago we would have been celebrating the placement of the ULL on that map. What went wrong? Just look at the decrease in heights. Not too shocked to see blocking fail to materialize in a La Nina year
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Actually seems like a pretty easy forecast for the most part with the convergence of the models. With the caveat of figuring out how much ip vs zr
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Seems like regardless of track, the trend had been to reduce the size of the snow thump area at the leading edge. Why is that?
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Pretty torchy in the mid levels though
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GSP is bullish
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Haha, yeah, it's drunk. There's a reason it's called happy hour, and as per usual the 18z NAM is the main offender
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Live by the NAM, die by the NAM
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Gives some sense of where the freezing line may end up at it's warmest, although I suspect you could shift it *East* about 50 miles
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Also I think sometimes convection along the coast can reduce precip totals for the Piedmont. Something to watch.
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No surprise that when eastern Kentucky gets heavy snow, there's significant mixing issues
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Accuweather's "Wintercast" feature is actually decent. Gives probabilities for accumulation ranges. Calling for the most likely scenario of 1-3" of snow and .5"-1" of ice, which is a little gung-ho on ice for the triad.
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With the complexity of the low transfer, ensembles become less of a factor from here on out I think
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6z blend of models
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Sleet drifts! Sounds kinda epic
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Winds ripping at 70 kts out of the SE at 850 mb
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I was looking at 6z by accident, but my point still stands (even more so)
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There's some good looking panels, but posting the hr 84 NAM is hazerdous to the health of weenies. Main takeaway is a good shift south. Hopefully the rest of 12z guidance follows the NAM's lead (we all know it rarely happens that way)
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A piece of our energy is coming ashore in the Pac NW, we wait and watch for development over the Canadian plains later today
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P-type maps show freezing rain, but mostly sleet, only freezing rain on the fringes (also, those dynamics, wowzers!)
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