olafminesaw

The 03UTC forecast this morning had it max out at 70mph. I think the models were even less enthusiastic. One of the biggest forecast errors in a while, for a landfilling hurricane anyway.

Greensboro averages 6 days with lows in the 30s or lower going back to 1903. Despite this, Greensboro has not had an above average number of days since 2008 (which had 9). We have had two days so far this month, but will almost certainly remain at 4 or less days through the end of the month with the upcoming warm up

Where's the creek photo taken?

These are great! Tis the season for oversaturated foliage photos on social media, it's refreshing to see photos with minimal editing. The colors speak for themselves!

In between those cold periods, a warmup.

Winter is coming. We're about a month away from when according to climo, we might conceivably see some flakes.

It briefly popped up to 59 today at the airport, but looks like it will not reach 60 for the first time since April 8. That's pretty much right on average. Seems like normally this occurs on a rainy day, but I don't have any data to back that up.

8 out of 11 typhoons in the WPAC this year have reached category 3+ intensity. 6 out of 8 on the EPAC have achieved the same.

AccuWeather is calling for wintry mix on Christmas Eve and Christmas in the Triad. Lock it in folks.

There's a parade of recurving typhoons in the Pacific. I'd have to believe that will reinforce blocking heading into late October (or at least that's the correlation that's been mentioned in the past)

Quite possibly the prettiest storm of the year. Also a contender for strongest of the year. https://x.com/135knots/status/1712038686479761797?s=20

Josh morgerman is trying to make it to the landfall point seems like a pretty risky proposition. The eye has filled in right before landfall. Likely weakened back to cat 3, but too little too late of course

There have only been 9 major hurricane landfalls in the EPAC in Mexico since 1983. Or one every 4-5 years

The wind shear over the SE US is incredible. Not sure I've seen values over 100 before.

I'm jealous! About the snow yes. But mostly the hiking. By all accounts stunning scenery around every corner out that way. Going to miss you're posts, but I know you will pop in for the big blizzard we get right after your move

Pretty unusual to see as dramatic a drop in dewpoints in October. Going to bottom out in the upper 20s after being at 62 this morning. A drop of 35 in a 24 hour period would be just outside the top 10 for the month of October

The cone vs ensemble spread is kinda wild

Is our upcoming cold(ish) snap a direct result of the spike in PNA?

A hot mess indeed. CNN is currently running a story with the headline "an unusually hot Atlantic Ocean is neutralizing El Nino. That could be bad news for the rest of hurricane season." Right on cue, the Atlantic seems to have flipped a switch to it's usual hostile El Nino state. Shear all over the place and little signs of development.

Nom nom

Absolutely! The best way to measure such a streak I can think of is to count consecutive days between 40 and 80 degrees, as these temps roughly delineate summer from fall from winter. More than about ten straight days is somewhat rare which is a bit surprising. In data going back to 1980, 2003 was the grandaddy of all falls with not one, but two streaks of 10 days plus. Also, between Sept 20 and Oct 20 is the typical time range for "true fall" (if you will) is to occur. This year could have had a good streak going, but a couple warm days interrupted it. Even so, it has been consistently fall-like and should remain so for the foreseeable future, and should make a run at an impressive streak!

Really hard to predict track with the system behind it having some influence and possibly Fujiwara effect. A weaker system should come more south though and they are leaning hard on the Euro

A slow ramp up but probably starting sometime between 3 and 5 am

Area of highest winds seems to be expanding rather than increasing. Consistent with most models in this regard.