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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Yeah, would be wild if after this it ends up threading the needle and developing after staying weak through the Bahamas and ends up impacting the East Coast. Ensembles show the weaker solutions heading that direction
  2. olafminesaw
    If it becomes a hurricane, it would be one of the furthest north forming hurricanes on record. The only other one I could find in the NOAA database is Lisa (1998)
  3. olafminesaw
    Mighty impressive. Surely upwelling will hold back intensity for the next couple days though? Or does the subtropical structure negate this?
  4. olafminesaw
    Looks like 1997
  5. olafminesaw
    Yeah, the GFS is broken. Wake me up when the Euro shows development within 84 hours.
  6. olafminesaw
    Camille is the one except that comes to mind. Pretty much held strength from the time it entered the gulf all the way to landfall
  7. olafminesaw
    I'd be curious to what degree the shut-off of the EPAC about two weeks ago has an downstream impact right about now. I know the two basins are inversely correlated (at least with respect to a typical la Nina), but not sure what kind of causation is there
  8. olafminesaw
    I can't help bet have a gut feeling that while we won't get big numbers this year, we'll get a Hugo/Isabel type track at some point
  9. olafminesaw
  10. olafminesaw
    Of course, as soon as it cools down we end up with cloudy/drizzly weather for a week straight. My elderly HVAC unit is loving it though (and I'm not complaining
  11. olafminesaw
    You love to see it...
  12. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile, the 6z GFS had 4 hurricanes develop in the EPAC over the next 10 days
  13. olafminesaw
    All the little towns that don't get much coverage when this happens https://twitter.com/walkyourcamera/status/1552708976134995969?s=20&t=IRDWn31TY4ZBjmpQrp1MAg
  14. olafminesaw
    Kinda surprised we didn't get a FFW here. 2"+ in an hour. Also winds gusting steadily in the 40-50 mph range for a while and constant thunder. Top shelf storm in my book. Fun without being too wild.
  15. olafminesaw
    The 12 hr 1000 year flood threshold is 9.5" and 24 hr is 11.1". Many locations are at or approaching those values.
  16. olafminesaw
    This morning's 12z sounding was quite toasty aloft. GSO recorded a daily record of 15,600 ft freezing level (previous record 15,460)
  17. olafminesaw
    Let's go!
  18. olafminesaw
    I wonder if urban heat island is a significant contributing factor. The Triangle has had significant growth even in the past few years, since the last major heat wave.
  19. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile, GSO only reached 93 yesterday with similar dewpoints. A combination of elevation and cloud debris coming off the mountains has consistently kept high temps much more reasonable (and also at times set up a boundary for storm development) The data backs up my theory. The average high temp in June was 3.2 degrees higher at Raleigh than at GSO (90.0 & 86.8), compared to the historical average having a gap of 1 degree (86.1 & 85.1)
  20. olafminesaw
    It seems the drought regions of Eastern NC should finally get soaked. When it rains it pours: 3-5" for the coastal plain over the next 5 days
  21. olafminesaw
    The HWRF has Bonnie making landfall in Costa Rica as a TS. A TS or stronger has never made landfall in Costa Rica in the satellite era, looking at the NOAA database
  22. olafminesaw
    Yeah, thankfully the triad has been somewhat more fortunate in regards to rainfall this month, but it seems that a flash drought is perhaps underway. High temps and remarkably low RH, will dry out the soil quick, even here.
  23. olafminesaw
    It seems showers/cloud cover should keep temperatures in check today for the western Piedmont. I wouldn't be shocked if we struggled to reach 90. Friday may end up as the hottest day of the week.
  24. olafminesaw
    Seems like the type of storm that could tighten/strengthen over land
  25. olafminesaw
    Someone is going to get pummeled (3"+) but more likely the western Piedmont/mountains and drought regions may be much more modest in the rain department.
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