olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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That really is the norm for landfalling gulf storms. Particularly in October
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Tropical Storm Gaston
olafminesaw replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Fish storms have unrealistic beauty standards -
Fair. The meltdowns will be glorious when the core falls apart over Cuba and makes landfall over the swamps of Florida as an anemic cat 2. Or something like that
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Yeah, it's wild how much the hype train has ramped up being 10+ days from a US landfall. I have a feeling the latest Euro won't help either...
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Thanks for sharing, I was just researching the island this morning, noticed the speck on the NHC map. There actually is a webcam on the island: https://www.windy.com/en/-Webcams/Canada/Nova Scotia/Sable Island/Sable Island Station/webcams/1408056380?43.930,-59.985,5
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One thing I'm noticing is just how massive the models are making this by the time it enters the gulf. Evokes A certain K storm
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Also, I believe this is the first recorded case of a major hurricane making landfall on grand turk
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The NHC's five day forecast up to this point was near perfect for track
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940 mb is the Canadian LP record
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A bit lopsided on microwave and ragged on satellite this morning. Seems like it keeps trying to do an EWRC, but is slow to do so
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Structure perhaps degrading a bit over the past few hrs fwiw.
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Seems like a situation where land interaction actually helps to push out dry air and tighten the circulation. It may or may not be over land long enough to impede strengthening
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HAFS, which seems to be performing well so far, brings Fiona through the middle of the Bahamas
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Overnight models seem to be converging on a recurve/surf-maker. Still, wouldn't rule anything out until it's made it through the islands.
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12 ensembles comparison
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Yes but the members that keep it weak also are the ones threatening the coast. I honestly think at this point a slow death in the Caribbean is more likely than a recurve. But if it can survive past the islands who knows, as conditions are likely to improve
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The Euro is crawling. makes landfall in West Palm Beach in 9 days as a moderate TS
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In the upper levels the Euro seems to have taken a step towards the Canadian with the ridging shifting east and closing the escape route. Keeps it really weak though and seems to make a broad messy system that may have a hard time organizing
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Bye bye LLC
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GFS is further south. Also, curious how that feature over Florida will end up coming into play
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Yeah, his does make it clearer the tracks they end up taking. I just thought it was funny how even though the mean would be over the island, all the individual members appeared to miss in yours
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Island forcefield, lol
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Quite a convective burst in the last hour or so. Impressive for nearing Dmin. Doesn't really look like it's occurring over or near the center, but I don't have that expertise
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With a track like that, a weak system is almost more likely to hold together over terrain than a hurricane.
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I believe it has been 5 full days since the NHC gave this a 70% chance of development through day 5. I feel like this has to be approaching longest lived cherry and it may never develope
