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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Much less likely now it will stay offshore after making landfall in FL
  2. olafminesaw
    At hour 141 987 mb taking a hook towards the SC coast
  3. olafminesaw
    FWIW the UKMET stalls out inland as well. Seems to be a trend west at 12z. Still on the table that the storm won't really make it back out over water (at least for very long).
  4. olafminesaw
    I know the Canadian is not to be used for tropical systems, but it does pull the system really far west. Could be an indicator of the overall steering pattern needing an adjustment West perhaps...but I know it may as well be tossed entirely
  5. olafminesaw
    Not even much of what you could call a circulation yet. So no reason to believe that land interaction is an inhibiting factor other reducing the chances of development somewhat in the short term.
  6. olafminesaw
    The outer Banks is due for a scraper. Seems like the would get 2-3 hurricanes/near misses every year but not so much the past few years.
  7. olafminesaw
    Reminiscent of Florence with the crawl inland crushing Wilmington (although it seems most model outputs are pretty low impact once you get away from the coast )
  8. olafminesaw
    The 12z spaghetti plots will be epic
  9. olafminesaw
    Lots of models have this meandering aimlessly near land. Could lead to some significant flooding somewhere
  10. olafminesaw
    Going back to April has been defined by feast or famine
  11. olafminesaw
    We went from the 3rd wettest May to the 7th driest June to already the 11th wettest July. With today's rain we may climb into the top 5 for July as well. Talk about weather whiplash!
  12. olafminesaw
    Was woken last night by heavy rain. Nearest rain gauge is picked up .74 in 40 minutes. Not a single 90 degree day on the 7 day forecast!
  13. olafminesaw
    I mean TBF, a lot of the county did get the split. But I feel your pain
  14. olafminesaw
    Storms just firing just south of the VA border along the outflow boundary formed by the morning MCS. Will be interesting to watch and see if that boundary continues to develop and move south.
  15. olafminesaw
    This would be what happens
  16. olafminesaw
    Meanwhile GSO has hit 97 already tying yesterday's high which was the hottest day since 2015. We have a legitimate chance of hitting 100 for the first time since 2012 (although more likely temps will stall out at 98/99). With much more reasonable dew points, our heat index is also 97.
  17. olafminesaw
    Seems like dew points have been running a good bit higher than yesterday's forecast, especially from the triangle East. Temps meanwhile are if anything a little ahead of schedule.
  18. olafminesaw
    The precip distribution actually ended up being fairly uniform surprisingly enough, but the precip cutoff was just a bit further East than modeled (we were living on the edge anyhow). Thankfully we got the heavy rain last Sunday that put a dent in the drought
  19. olafminesaw
    Seems to be a big of low level subsidence that is inhibiting the development of heavier precip across the triad. We may end up underperforming unless we can get some better lift.
  20. olafminesaw
    Already the 2nd most tornado warnings in a single day for the state at 22 per IEM. 5/31 1998 was the highest single day record with 41
  21. olafminesaw
    YTD heat index values confirm that this has been an unusually warm start to summer.
  22. olafminesaw
    I would not be surprised to see several hurricanes in the second half of October/November. The highly anomalous SST's should extend the window of opportunity by at least a couple weeks.
  23. olafminesaw
    Geography dictates that almost any system coming into the Gulf is going to have question marks, such as whether a core can rebuild after being shredded by land, limited time over warm water to strengthen before landfall, shear and dry air from troughs coming off the mainland. There's a reason major hurricane landfalls in the Gulf are relatively rare despite the consistently favorable SSTs
  24. olafminesaw
    Big eye. Might take longer to tighten up/ deepen.
  25. olafminesaw
    This happens a lot, where the only way for the core to tighten after becoming disorganized is frictional effect in the few hours before landfall
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