Euro drops up to 10" of rain in a 6 hr period. Considering globals tend to under estimate both localized higher totals as well as terrain enhancement, could definitely be some serious flooding/ mudslides. A big mitigating factor is the very quick forward motion. Most of the rain falls in 6-8 hours.
I would think the hurricane would funnel water into the Kingston harbor, but I'm not seeing much historically to support this possibility. Dean took a similar track/ intensity and I'm not seeing any record of significant surge. It may be protected by coral reefs and is sheltered by a barrier island so that may be why. And as you say a storm track parallel to the coast is going to push less water than more of a 90 degree angle (not sure if I have that right, someone more knowledgeable can correct me)
I know we normally say an ERC means higher impact, but with increasing shear it could be a saving grace for Jamaica. Sometimes hurricanes can unravel mighty quick if an ERC occurs in a sheared environment
I agree, especially since there doesn't seem to be any reporting stations on the small islands that got hit the hardest. FWIW The latest METAR on windy.com says gusts to 67kts 2 hrs ago and 59kts 1 hr ago. Makes way more sense.
Structures seem pretty solid concrete. All the roofs will likely be gone though. Even in Irma many well built buildings faired well, and that was a much stronger hurricane
Highest winds likely on union Island. Even Canouan got a bit of the core with the larger eye. Surge up into Clifton harbor. Obviously near peak winds on Carricou as well.
I bet she already is high end cat 4. The satellite loop showing on the CNN home page is a terrifying sight. Really shows the rapid recovery and symmetry of the eye
Per the NHC track, the worst may miss Canouan to the south as well. Which puts a few very tiny islands in it's path, the largest of which has about 3,000 inhabitants
Of the June/July TDs that formed in the general region the NHC has highlighted going back to 1990 max strength as follows:
TD 8
TS 9
CAT 1: 6
CAT 3 : 3
CAT 4 : 1
CAT 5 : 1
39% Reached hurricane strength
I don't have data to back it up, but I feel like May is one of our more feast or famine months, not quite in daily storm potential season, but any synoptic systems that we get could drop a bunch over a fairly wide area.
Most of the western Piedmont had now received 200-400% of the average rainfall month to date. GSO is now at 8.27", only needing 2.61" to surpass the all time May record set in 1905. The 6z GEFS has 2.3" through the end of the month, so very possible!