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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    I think it's the LP over the great lakes ruining the thermals. Need that to be a stout HP instead!
  2. olafminesaw
    Euro says perhaps a little light snow Monday night
  3. olafminesaw
    I think with the 6z Euro AI it's picking up on more of a miller A, so the thermals warm with the transfer to the coast. I think we want the dynamic system because thermals will be better on the north side of the system, even with the inevitable warm nose coming into play. Wouldn't sweat the details, because it seems less granular than other models Edit: of course for you, a miller A is never going to work out, I apologize, this is not just the Carolina's subforum!
  4. olafminesaw
    A little nuance (although this is old)
  5. olafminesaw
    Model swings be like
  6. olafminesaw
    I think probably North of the VA border outside of the mountains, could be a big ice storm for Roanoke
  7. olafminesaw
    The Euro AI had a big storm at 18z and a moderate storm 0z. My sense is it's a good model to use to see which direction model consensus is wrong (it was way North with the 6th system all along). 6z GFS goes back to much more suppressed. Hopefully not the start of a trend
  8. olafminesaw
    12z vs 0z EPS
  9. olafminesaw
    Can you show what you're seeing on the H5 between 0z and 12z. Seemed relatively similar to me, but I struggle when I get away from surface maps
  10. olafminesaw
    When I said I wanted a southern slider for Christmas this is not what I meant...
  11. olafminesaw
    12z GFS, CMC and ICON all take baby steps in the right direction. UKMET remains super suppressed.
  12. olafminesaw
    Yep, good trend
  13. olafminesaw
    I agree, although it always feels like a good look a week out always fizzles, but when we lose the threat a week out it never seems to swing back the other way. Super frustrating, although generally speaking a reflection of climo more than anything
  14. olafminesaw
    Not the worst
  15. olafminesaw
    At least our friends in New England aren't getting it instead
  16. olafminesaw
  17. olafminesaw
  18. olafminesaw
    High shifted West this run. Actually better confluence but it's not enough
  19. olafminesaw
    For 90% of us it's all about the dopamine hit of the big model run, not the snow itself (insert change my mind meme format here)
  20. olafminesaw
    I agree. If one of us had been in a coma since November and woke up and checked the models, I think they'd be thrilled at what they saw. I do think models backing off from the 8th-12th a bit should give us some pause, but overall the pieces are there to make something happen and that's all we can ask for in a Nina (or near Nina) winter
  21. olafminesaw
    I know the cold had backed off a little on some runs but the GFS is back to something nearly as impressive
  22. olafminesaw
    On the one hand -NAO should continue to kick south. On the other hand, the last minute North trend is real. I think this map represents kinda the expected outcome with lots of uncertainty north or south. Of course plenty of opportunity for sleet or ZR south of that snow map
  23. olafminesaw
    That axis of WAA snow is going to mean business wherever it sets up.
  24. olafminesaw
    For sure, should still be wintry though. 12z was the outlier even for the GFS anyway
  25. olafminesaw
    .
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