olafminesaw
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Everything posted by olafminesaw
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Trough orientation looks better than the prior run
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The AI version tilts neutral just in time, while OP Euro stays positive. I am guessing it is related to the Baja energy
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Comparing the Euro this morning to the GFS 36 hours ago, totally different look at H5. We need the trough to tilt more neutral, which is why the system is so weak / sheared on the Euro (positively tilted trough = weak system)
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At this range the Euro AI was much further north than the rest of guidance with today's storm. The correct solution was between the Euro AI and the consensus. So hopefully it will prove a useful tool to see which direction model consensus is wrong at least
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Happens all the time in March!
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The biggest surprise isn't the burst of snow, it's the sub-freezing temps. The magic of low dewpoints!
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I mean, the models last night all supported a happy medium to some degree, aside from the Euro. Not a blockbuster storm, but 2-6" across the region is certainly still on the table, and the model average supports that idea for now. Certainly we can fail on one side or the other,but last night's runs were solid
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To prove your point, the 6 z Euro is missed the phase entirely
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That's a good look. Best case scenario would be overrunning much like tommorow's system, just much further south
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The 6z Euro is super amped. We need to figure out a way to get some cold air ASAP
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What's with everyone reporting mudslides?
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Euro still looking good for back end snow
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Y'all that is the world's smallest snow squall warning
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The absurdity of using the CFS for precip type has me tickled
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My weenie take is the Monday system ended up speeding up significantly on models, so maybe the same will hold for the next system
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It does have a colder/further south track, but it doesn't seem to be handling the thermals correctly. That 12"+ strip should be mostly sleet/ZR based on other models depictions of the mid level temps
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I think it's the LP over the great lakes ruining the thermals. Need that to be a stout HP instead!
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Euro says perhaps a little light snow Monday night
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I think with the 6z Euro AI it's picking up on more of a miller A, so the thermals warm with the transfer to the coast. I think we want the dynamic system because thermals will be better on the north side of the system, even with the inevitable warm nose coming into play. Wouldn't sweat the details, because it seems less granular than other models Edit: of course for you, a miller A is never going to work out, I apologize, this is not just the Carolina's subforum!
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A little nuance (although this is old)
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Model swings be like
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I think probably North of the VA border outside of the mountains, could be a big ice storm for Roanoke
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The Euro AI had a big storm at 18z and a moderate storm 0z. My sense is it's a good model to use to see which direction model consensus is wrong (it was way North with the 6th system all along). 6z GFS goes back to much more suppressed. Hopefully not the start of a trend
