Typhoon Tip

There’s likely some kind of pattern change after that GHD system …

tell them while this is happening, no less -

18z GFS signaling Groundhog Day again ... Only 11 days away, too, so very high confidence - Like all other systems this winter, this is modeled exactly the same - it's like we've been in the same pattern for 90 straight days. Very unusual... pattern gestation is typically 4 to 6 weeks. We've doubled that, marked just by the behavior of N/stream failing captures, and models still showing the same damn shit. It's basically because the ridge is too far west, so the flow east over the continent ends up too flat. in other words, needle thread as the southern piece out-paces.

Good thing we're finally losing the mashed up flow compression in the extended -

A remarkable adaptation of evolution ... only equaled by the advent of human deviance that happens upon the scene and decides to pack those preciously precarious protruding snout holes full of dog shit.

Low chance that Euro idea/bomb in GOM succeeds. That's a polar branch of the westerlies; one aspect that we cannot seem to shed is that whenever the polar branch flexes this season, the jet becomes overwhelmingly strong, and this stretches the wave lengths which then means the embedded wave spaces are moving fast. In principle, that thing's correction vector is thus pointed too late and speeding up. The only way to get that 'in time' would be retrograde the entire wave numbering...which I guess is plausible- just not likely. I'm more interested in the following aspect that is, for the time being, a Lakes cutter... but the antecedent environment is so cold ( and the GFS is very similar to this) both options end up snow to mix to drizzle with implications for triple point/dammed up the hilt. This follow-up wave is more born of a quasi-subtropical jet field. In fact, this has been bugging me ... I've been suspecting for a long while actually that there's a broad sweeping misconception going on out amid the ambit of Meteorology/planetary observing. There's a lot of notion out there that subtropical jets haven't been very well observed... I've been seeing them as just being displaced N of what previous generations were used to observing. If one looks beneath the curled up system out there over the 2nd (Euro), beneath that jet the only thing separating it from the Equator are 590 dm ridge nodal medium of general 582 heights. That strikes me as a laitude advance HC expression... I've read that the expanding HC was theorized as more of summer season aspect ( relative to hemisphere), but I don't think that's as true any more. The other aspect is, if we convert the geographic expanse into mechanics, the loss of HC expansion in the winter - I hypothesis - can be physically shown to be conserved in/as the observed faster hemispheres. SO, a trade off: we either have expanded HC, or ... if the HC isn't allowed to be expanded, the hemisphere speeds up as a conversion. But I'm sure most stopped reading this paragraph long ago... ha

Here's the heat burst just coming into the outer range of the guidance -

12z oper. GFS and to some non-zero degree, so does the CMC, trying to activate matters during that 28th-2nd time period. It's not a robust signal, but there is a modest +d(PNA) heading into the period, while still non-exhaustive cold lingers. Something for winter enthusiasts to keep and eye on. I mentioned a couple few days ago that was our next 'suggestion' for an active period. The signal hasn't really improved or decayed - 'tie goes to the runner'

This has been a robust -EPO winter up to this point. Unfortunately .. there's also been a persistent idiosyncratic layout of the PNA in the means/verification; one that has been problem for better cyclone production. Namely, the western N/A ridge component of the total +PNA has largely biased too far west. When we think of or visualize the positive phase of PNA, there's a ridge axis aligned more typically eastern MT or the Dakotas. This winter, said ridge has in fact most of the time verified over the far E Pac ... only occasionally overlapping the far western continent. In a sentence, this is too far west. We've referred to the NAOs in the same way. "West based," "east based" ..etc. It's really the same concern. Skewing these mass field W-E-N-S of their "proper" field orientation, can seem minor if even invisible to the charts ( in this case however, +PNA biased west has been pretty damn coherent tho - ) but it distorts/interferes with expectations we associate to their different positive and negative phases.

I was kinda hoping they'd still have snow piles in the foreground of photos while tornadoes are in the background of the same image. But then I figure... no one owns and plows or shovels so -

At least through the first 10 days of Feb ... the spatial representation ( ens chart mean ) over the hemisphere, doesn't lend to bombastic heat. But these means go to 360 beyond, whence the flow looks annular more so than the previous canonical NE ridge with NW flow through Canada - those same ones that were formerly leading to fantastic expectations now poorly realized On the other hand, the numerical teleconnectors have been pretty persistently in a neutral EPO/ -PNA after about Feb 3 -ish. With a statically positive AO(NAO) also in the numerics. This is all presently true in he Euro weeklies, as well as the GEFs extended. So the rip and read of that is a warm tendency; then combining that with recent year's climate behaviors ... doesn't lend to protracting the cold biases/perceptions very deep into February. It's entirely within the realm of possibilities that the spatial synoptic graphics begin to present more and more of what these telecons suggest - I've noticed in the past that the former does tend to lead the latter. So those two aspects above are somewhat in conflict, at least early on. I think after Feb 10 there's potential to go either early spring and a rather unceremonious exit, or loading perhaps one last time before doing that anyway. I think being realistic about the end game this year is that there are more reasons to presume some sort of warm occurrences and general earlier exit than not. But this is supposition... There's a subtle impression that some sort of event may set up still in that 28th to 2nd though. May be a Jan thread thing heh

Why do we have to have snow on the ground. "worried about losing ..." It's a'aight. It's a psycho-babble aspect of weather hobbyists and/or formal involvement that I've always personally grappled with trying to understand. I just for me, I agree with the boredom aspect, but it's not a prerequisite for me that it be snow. I could care less if there is snow on the ground - which is odd ... because if we are getting an active pattern, the consequence of that in the winter is often going mean putting snow on the ground. LOL. However, I don't need the active pattern to be snow, per se. Kind of getting into the subjective druthers thing... I think a long duration mix event with interesting ptypes, with dramatic temperature variance across relative small distances/boundaries... Basically, 'events' for me don't need to be snow. I tailor my involvement in this social media to curry to the preferences in here...but truth be told, a wild raining nor-easter with coastal surf spectacles and flood, and/or wind potentials on the coast et al, is all just as thrilling to me.

I wonder if relative to latitude X proximity to sea-level ( 300 ft ave elevations E of the Berks/Whites or so - ) if this is among the coldest air masses on the planet. -10 F here... Judging by the layout of resulting temps and given to the calm wind/decoupling, the -10 is likely topographic/'drainage' assisted. It may seem tongue-in-cheek, but if we're going to be running the warmest 'oh my god' state of climate this that and the other, we can't really be -10 over a large area. This has to be pretty uniquely our circumstance ?

hopefully this line of questioning is for sarcastic jest -

man … that’s 30 secs I can never get back. 384 hrs of 18z gfs completely shut out the whole way.

kinda interesting this event in the south was really very ANA like

OH I'm sure it snow down there at some point in history ... before white man made america great again The only thing really distinctive is that it happen to take place for the first time ... in a modern era of deep fakes and dystopian addiction

I'm starting to wonder if the biggest impact CC will ever have in this region of ours is specifically forcing weather that everyone hates, period. Some places in the world it gets unbearably hot. Some places unbearable cold. Some get crazy floods. Others buried to roof eaves in snow... New England? just suck, within boundaries that are wholly uninteresting. "Attribution science finds the odds of the piece of shitness weather plaguing New England had only a 1::10,000 year chance of boning butts with misery and unfun without CC"

just wait 'till May when that folding mechanism repositions into Canada, and we start BDing snow flurries again while PHX starts setting early heat records ...

i'm hoping that the mounting cost of these idiocratic absurdities, to go along with the shear ludicrous specter of it all, forces a "correction" - leave it at that

The 06z GFS has DPs in the upper 60s there in 10 days ...

-4 Looks like elevation ( of course ) dependent. +5 to -5 type thing

may very well be the coldest it gets this season, and it's timing on essentially the climate nadir interesting

guess we can add this to the list "An eastward propagating Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent MJO historically favors a warm response over the central and eastern CONUS, which would be a welcome change to the frigid conditions experienced recently for much of the Lower 48."

What's the heat like south of the equator so far this djf ?