Typhoon Tip

Koe' it has to do with low-level lapse rates over water. When CAA is occurring, the warm water enhances instability and helps 'over-turn'. This restoring/convective processing mixes the environment proficiently enough such that stronger winds can come down and interact with the sea-surface and enhances wave action ...

This Day 6 Euro is a terrific ice-storm look .... .... in 2 months

This is extremely important frame-work exposure of the crisis... Species migration will/has be a Humanity issue just as is for any other life form that necessarily moves from areas of harm to areas less so .. impelled to do so by their very instilled/instinct to survive. The destablization of the Baltic region and the recent refugee flux event over the last 10 years, was not just geopolitically motivated - as some scholarly papers available to general consumption of the web-browser discuss, and are available if one bothers to go and find. They were experiencing ecological failures on a multi-year scale, already on-going, such that the fateful arrival of the aforementioned duress becomes more like 'straw that broke the camels back.' It is what it is in a vacuum but .. part of the facets of the culture anti-CC narrative is the lack of culpable evidence that it is effecting/affecting - when there are evidence of this and have been for a decade or more in actuality and needs to be presented and spotlighted.

Mm... I'd say probably should hold off until next Thursday - perhaps than we'll get a handle on how to handle convection east of the Hudson' two days ago -

It would be a win-win scenario if 50s was because we were always averaging 100 + 0, huh

The GFS with dubious boundary layer kinematic handling ....? no f way man -

Meanwhile ... all of it is semantic pass-time Earth-movingly important, too -

The Industrial Revolution caused it all... Not a single generation since... It excited profligate expenditure and entitlement attitudes to the environment which --> directly to why we're all most likely not going to make it, because we are ( most likely ) either: unwilling; unable to change. And the Mets on here ..rolling their eyes as to "why" countless die due to dwindling provisions, disease, social duress, as they tell us heat waves aren't caused by GW. People don't realize... the apocalypse is sociologically driven, as much as geo-physically responding to our presence. We can't break the million-500 thousand years of prior human evolution-instinct, which meant for all humans ( save Geoffry Dahmer) to seek cooperation bonds that were always needed in order to survive ... Catch-22: evolution advances a species into a scenario where the evolution of the species ends it's reign. We are some 8, billion and change population by 20 years, and that may as well be 8, billion and change sovereignties all vying for special proxy ... as though the afforded-individualism the Industrial Revolution conveniences provide to their arrogance and entitlements must be unstoppable and elevate them to godly provinces - .... and it won't work But, if we need to blame Millennials and Kevin ... hey, no argument here man -

How's this for a kielbasa post - if you stuck this Kleenex and tissue paper on the Benchmark in all it's multi-nodal glory, it would cold-conveyor-belt snow all the way to San Francisco - while denuding Boston, Ny and the entire Jersey shore completely off the face of the planet ... ....And Trump would blame Obama ... and rural America would toe-the-line on that accusation.

Almost ... need another 6' but real close there - all over the ski industry circuit of New England ... analogous to Homer Simpson on the donut stuffing machine in hell -

Know what'd be awesome... heh... snows so much all ski resorts are inaccessible .... talin' over 50' ...well over the top of the lodges. Lift chairs half buried with the tops of the towers sticking out...

There's unusual eddy forcing all over the place because of the modulating impact of the expanded Hadley Cell into the Ferrell latitudes ... That's a large anomaly that's greater than single-seasonal and more a reflection of the state of the planetary system. This causing anomalies compared to the previous classic systemic model, and [ likely ] obscuring the "real" state of the oceanic indices due to those stresses. Things may look IOD (-)(+) but be ephemeral ...? They are responding to local time-scale disruptions that are part of that larger modulation. They would be faux presentation of states ... or, if they are real and integrating, it may not be readily coherent if they carry the same forcing weight because they are not differentiating the same way as they did in the previous model. A ballooned(ing) Hadley repositions the gradation of heights at mid latitudes. This effects a slew aspects in the on-going, longer term eddy forcing around the Hemispheres. I just think we cannot be as ENSO reliant at relative measures/observations, to known or suspected results, when those Climatologies are based upon a different era when these macro physical states of the environment dictated a different interrelationship among these various fields - or is strongly hypothetically supported as being different via convention academia and a-priori experience as to how this shit works.

Don posted excerpts from a letter to the U.N. general several posts ago... This caught my eye immediately - this particular sentiment, which I've heard repeated in the "cost vs consequence" mantra quite often and it's irritating. "Current climate policies pointlessly, grievously undermine the economic system, putting lives at risk in countries denied access to affordable, continuous electrical power...." It's wrong for multiple reason. One, it is not pointless - the fact that the author of this sentence doesn't see the point, or has difficulty with connecting with the truth and reality of what climate crisis actually means does not mean the point does not exist. It simply means... he/she is either lacking the capacity to see it, or [ perhaps ] is/are too predisposed to other ideologies, so much so that they block the perception of truth and reality in the first place. Two, Tough shit! Related to one, this "concern" is rooted in a mentality that either doesn't understand and/or appreciate the magnitude of what the f climate "apocalypse" means, or is incapable to perceptions that take the "longer view". Clue: There is no economy in a future that cannot support an economy - thus, the author(s) question and concern is rendered void and irrelevant. I mean, this idiot cares about the economics and guess what... economics is based on a human construct. I conceit of value that is just a shared delusion - turn out the lights. It's gone. It's not, gravity or electromagnetism, or chemistry rules of nature that we all are compelled to abide by or we die. Economy, and the ways and means by which humanity stuffs meaning and value into it, is an abuse of the former natural laws - think long and hard about that. Those abuses, leading to the consequences we now face, are consequences precipitating out of bad practices before fully exploring what it would mean to do the things history has done - that will mean the demise of economy as we know it. These people among us ... it just begins suspect they are genetically lacking some make-up in the very wiring of their minds and are incapably connect the dots - ..little frustration here, admittedly. but Jesus - In a whimsy euphemism, we've ignored the gravity of our actions and went about profligate chemistry, and now... we have an electromagnetic problem. When I read this opening statement by the author, they lost all credibility in my mind and I can't abide - it actually makes it difficult to even want to endure reading further.

The "support-group" seeking tenor in here is too much today. Guys... quick reminder: it doesn't matter whatever in the f you want -

I don't think 18C is enough post Equinox solar input ... but, whatever... That should be the last of it - there's been an persistent theme among the models/blends therein for a pretty comprehensive 'thickness reset" timed shortly there after ...this going back days of guidance actually. Still appears to be the case looking over the usual suspects this morning. The pattern structure may not even change so much as once that happens, it's late and the return flows have lost the elevated thermal layout - oscillitory pattern is what we get out of those 10 days of heat hysteria in the runs. I love it. In the meantime, can you imagine if that ever situated on the Benchmark ?

Nice hot apple cider and donut pattern there in the extended GFS - ...too bad it's in the wiener schnitzel range

Mm... I think the ship's already sailed on the extended demonstrative warm anomaly idea. We're getting boobs from the north bursting around the east ends of warm boundaries like a burlesque brazier as it is... And the -EPO that's dumping cold into western Canada in the nearer term, those typically lead r-wave lengthening and that'll pretty squish the ridge/ablate what's left of it ... It'll be hot in Chattanooga I guess Not saying it won't come back later in October, but this is an outlook in flux and the correction appears pointed down for the time being.

Science is absolute and settled? I've never heard any "...International list of accredited scientists" make claims there's nothing left to science. Unfortunately though... Society won't fall into shit man. Nah ... human beings do not respond to threats they cannot directly perceive through one of the corporeal senses - global warming doesn't rumble the Earth and blare horns around the bend like that. Folks deny because they can ... and modern convenience still protects them. And the interesting thing is.. most denier don't even realize while they are flouting fact that they are being protected by conveniences they've long come to expect while they are doing it. You know, this may no be as ubiquitously known as it should be... The Earth is currently going through a mass-extinction. The other mass, "media," as well as the consumers of their product are just obsessed and utterly preoccupied with the thermometer .. tho more recently, ice caps and sea level rise are gaining some bandwidth. But, many species have gone extinct and the losses are accelerating? Paleo geologic records match the other epoch boundaries in the history of the planet to what is happening now... So shit ... if we wanna talk apocalypse, mass extinction events are a form of apocalyps... So technically, you've already lost the debate ( royal 'you') before pulling a chair up to that debate. I think part of the problem with this climate cataclysm shit is quite frankly Hollywood. It's not coming as a gray abyssal wall tipping over the horizon, or a Lucifer's Hammer comet/asteroid impact... or an X99 class solar radiation induced fire storm that subsumes the top mile of the planetary lithosphere into a magma sea ... It'll more likely come by way of crop failures and pathogen releases, and species migration habitat destablization, oxygen fixing biota break downs in the oceans ... to mention, over-population suffering from failed provision caused by the former cocktail inducing duress and probably wars... There will be adjustments along the way... but a lot of failures that aggregate in time to a forced capitulation which is philosophically losing anyway ... All the while, a select few held out their wealth in enclaves that we don't know about... all that fun stuff. muah hahaha. Just kidding enclaves but who knows -

Not sure if your bold is an accusation and belief of what's happened(ing), or a statement of how someone else is perceiving matters ... For me, I don't agree that scientists have been conditionally "fixing" numbers to fit preconceptions and/or agenda in the majority practice. Isolated malfeasance ... probably. That's concomitant with the species frankly and cannot be avoided. But, if one questionable apple slates the entire orchard for chopping and clearing, then in reality no one wanted the orchard in the first place. And I also find that whole climategate saga as really fodder for knee-jerk reactionary denialists that happened to come across turns of phrase that yeah... of course they are going to seem like a-b-c when/where taken out of context ...then of course repackaged for the nearest high-fiver. Look the ice caps are melting the atmosphere is heating up. It's over. ( not you per se, but to any one hiding in our midst that's frankly a f'ing complete nimrod and/or sociopath at this point). But ... we're probably on the verge of getting Will to a blow a gasket so we should probably not diverge this thread's purpose for being any more than we already have - haha. And I don't wanna get into politics talking points anywhere close to the anonymity and "hiding" of stellar virtuous social-media depots, either. Holy hell would I rather give head to an ice-pick!. Because one could be entirely righteous but from Lords Of The Flies to heretic ... history would paint them irrecoverably into an entirely wongeous corner purely by virtue of the douchery doctrines and iniquities of human truth and parlance - there is no god. only missed snow storms

There may be a geo-physical premise for not including ... in that the conclusions are not fully vetted. There are arguments that have to be ruled out - believe me! I am not of the denier ilk so please do not couch me in with that stat. However, objectively two aspect leap out at me - suppositional on my part ( admittedly ) but I haven't seen any seminal work in either area ( so excuse me if it exists : Firstly, tropical cyclone measuring was always an estimate art. The Dvorak technique ( including improved standards therein) have been applied for estimating cyclones for decades, but even the polished methods have deficiencies. Human error gets in the way for example... Perhaps not hugely so, but minor ... minor variations due to unavoidable, inherent subjectivity leads to inconsistencies. Additionally, standards and operator skill are also variant from one oceanic basin to the next which augments uncertainties. There is this "CNN" system developed in recent years, which is the abbreviation for "conventional convolution neural network" which sounds like something out of a dystopian AI thriller frankly but it is what it is... Anyway, these techniques were not in existence as recent as 30 years ago. Andrew 1992 was a cyclone originally maxed at Category 4. It wasn't until reanalysis confirmed what most first hand accounts suspected *( per anecdotal ) that 135 mph was insufficient to appropriately characterize. This was in part/indirectly supported when measured building/architectural science indications were then integrated in reanalysis. It is now a Category 5 posthumously. Considering today's various satellite techniques and different storm penetrating technologies, it is unlikely a present day Andrew would be assessed as Category 4. Andrew is just one example where/when solid-state physics was able to assist in exposing both the reality of that cyclone intensity, but also exposes that the old techniques of assessing storm intensity were plausibly insufficient. Therefore, it is entirely possible that some percentage of the entire 'upper strength of the strongest' assumption may in fact, in at least partial, actually be an artifact for better detection. Secondly, in a Meteorological perspectives it is not abundantly clear that a GW atmosphere should immediately connote stronger storms. That's certainly romantic but the verdict is out on that - physical mathematics. The tropical sounding ( vertical structures of temperature, humidity at sigma levels) has to have a certain thermodynamic gradients - that much is known. Gradient powers everything in nature. If you exist, you exist because something is restoring.That's how all dimensions of nature work really. In fact, you're capable of reading this sentence because of the electrolytic potential that exists in the neuro fabric of your mind. Without those electrical potentials between (-) sodium and (+) potassium, you don't have life. In atmospheric phenomenon, variations in PV=NRT across a domain space ( in three-dimensions) is the gradient that makes all weather happen. For hurricanes, those gradients produced via saturation ... where unstable pseudo-adiabatic vertical sounding results and keeps the lift going, which sucks in more torridity from the ocean surface and on and so on.. Which is why you need a steady source of hot ocean to keep the machinery going. If we follow that simplified model to its logic ends, in a warming world, if it warms at all levels evenly, these thermodynamic gradients do necessarily change - if the gradient stays the same. Hurricanes are not intrinsically stronger. In order for the GW upward intensity to be outright causally linked, the tropical cyclone model -related gradients have to increase. Thus, it's not abundantly clear the tropical delta(PV=NRT)'s is really more culpable than merely better assessment described above. Once the better part of this latter science gets underway... along the way it would also have to take into consideration the fact that Global tropical cyclone intensity/storm frequency, also has a periodicity.

Birthing rates plays a role there -

Well light dawns on marble heads ... https://phys.org/news/2019-09-convince.html In my own proclivities to lament the short-comings of the climate -crisis forefather communication's shimmering gallery of what not to do ( go about attacking the fundamental scaffold of society's make up ), I'm also quotable as mentioning concerns to that/this affect. Those mistakes of yesteryear started this chain-work, where earlier defensive posturing led inexorably to a culture of denialism, and carte-blanche to be creative in the way people go about doing it because there's no moral culpability/sense of consequence for actually submitting one to a delusion and believing it... It's as much a psychological problem ( integrating sociologically) as a geo-physical one now, set into motion decades ago by bad diplomacy and dissemination of an impending crisis. And it's consequentially very bad now, because this is a present day reality where we have to move quicker, than the time it will take to convince the world it is in trouble. The earlier warning tact ...it really created a different sort of climate crisis, one that is just as pernicious and seemingly insurmountable as the environmental one, itself ... and thus, there two wars going on: one against ignorance and enlightenment about the ways and means of profligate Humanity, and the disparate cultural design against that enlightenment - the latter of which is an ingrained cultural climate of distrust and vitriol ( to mention, morality ), one that is multi-generational too. To be fair, not all of which is the climate-frontiersmen fault, either - there seems to be an entirely separate post -Industrial Revolution - ramification that is timed exquisitely badly but I won't get into that. It's not a novel for anyone of us to have mentioned this concern at the various "water cooler depots of the social-media," less than compendium ...no. Most know ...or have suspected for some time, that this is a sociological issue. However, the problem was not going away? And over the years, we are not seeing a very sophisticated ( if at all ) gap/diplomatic control measure being adopted by disseminators - other than misinformation and misuse for a special interest group's gain, but that's another digression.. There needs to be art in research exposure to the masses.

Interesting, so you think it'll take that long - My guess, no. It could take that long. Like anything in this weather game, timing change is the last frontier of technological advancement because as is ... we're really not that good at it. How often does the ambit of tech and its constituent entangled web of interconnected methods all tell us that it'll definitely get hot(cold) in two weeks, only to have it get hot(cold) in a month? Meanwhile, forecast' or not, I've seen whole scale changes sweep through continents in a single day. Just as well ... I've seen step down alterations, where the canvas seemed to carry paint of both regimes, simultaneously, for a long while before committing. However, I don't think the latter is favored this year? Probably not favored in any year since 2000 for that matter, and most likely not so in the future. Here's why: Global Warming ... quite plausibly ( so admittedly supposition ) another in a myriad of emergent properties no one knew would happen because of GW jolting, too. How's that for necessarily terse ... One could write Flowers For Algernon quality prose to describe this shit, and in today's society it seems mice would ironically demonstrate the better comprehension. Short version, when pattern changes occur for colder or hotter, the difference before and after tend to be greater than they used to be. "Used to be" - that always meant Millennial time spans... But in this context? Single normal human live's are afflicted. And changes are empirically observable in the environment emerging at a faster rate than model(s) projected GW impacts would register. It's not just the anecdotal conjecture of the rocking chair crank extolling the glory days of when "uphill both ways" of yore, either. So, that specific behavior, the difference between warm and cool patterns, may not be a metric that's evaluated in climate models anyway. They're not really designed for that discrete level probability. But we're seeing that right now, today, in the models ( for example). 570 to nearly 580 dm thickness's pervade warm sectors, while snow falls in clumps 500 km away, and not merely caused by local topographic forcing, rather ... at synoptic scales. Systems are rich in gradients these days. And this is true at pattern boundaries, as well; which is intuitively pleasing because ding ding ding, events happen ( or tend to ) at those seams. That said ... the way Global Warming effects all this seasonal change stuff is interesting - and I have other Mets that agree with me ... even though saying that no longer caries the gravitas it used to ... Wild digression in-coming: this post Industrial Revolution has given so much proxy and power ( actually, more succinctly ...the ability to evade the consequence of bad decision making) to the individual, they no longer have to rely upon the million 500 thousand years of evolutionary cooperative instincts to survive. Thus, affording them the ability to flout advice. People deny this shit because they can. So, when it feels better to watch porn, eat Twinkies, soak in psychotropic drugs either literally or via emanation, they "get to" impugn the very sources that were always charged with the responsibility to veracity in lieu immorality. Distrust paranoia, and now this "fake truth" phenomenon has emerged along the way, and are coming to a pernicious parallax in history - and is causing a fracturing of the very institutions and "faith" in the system the Industry helped create ... Man, that's a special kind of f'ed right there. And so... bring this home, no one believes that the Hadley Cell is bloated and hot. ( see how I did that ...? ) Anyway, the polar regions ...although empirically warming at a faster rate - like dem total full-of-crap dumbass scientists report - are still mightily cold by comparison to the lower latitudes ( Hadley). The gradient between, in the interim ( ...prolly the next 10 to 50 years depending upon which climate modeled apocalypse one ascribes to...) is larger than it [ probably ] has been in the preceding ...well, epoch. It's probably time to start thinking in terms of having crossed over into a new epoch and in fact, I've heard the phrasing, holocene vs anthropocene bandied about in recent years. Makes sense to me... Humanity, for better or worse, is a geological force. Our power registers above the back ground din of other processes that have come in and out of the greater "Gaia" system - but did/do not comparatively leave/have anywhere close to size and vibrating footprint. That, imho, put us on the list, even if we are at the lower end of the significance scale. And, seeing as those totally dumbass scientist warn that long after we've completed our [ clear intent of .. ] phasing ourselves out ... the effects of us having been here will continue to rage onward for 10,000 years, hm - So for the next few decades we'll likely have autumns ( and springs for that matter ) where dividing lines are enhancing baroclinicity. Lower tropospheric temperature variances between "cold" and "hot" regions, is greater. When the sun slips below the Equator ... that gets more noticeable too, because it's ability to modulate the cold regions is obviously attenuated(ing). Comparing pre-Industrial or now... warm arieas below the 35th ( or so) latitude stay warmer later as seasonal migration inextricably encroaches from the N... As an after thought ... I guess the sting of short duration temperature change, as annoying as it may sensibly be... may not necessarily constitute a deep tissue pattern variance, either. But, we have tele support that it will change, and be sensibly noticeable, both -

The EPO has wended its way into a negative phase state ... that’ll pretty much be the ballgame for the Alaskan sector as that’s a warm signal up there, and modeled to persist for the next week ...meanwhile an early cold plume and upslope snow event becoming increasingly more likely in the lower latitude Canadian high country /interior PAC NW ... as immediate downstream of there is a typical mass balanced loading pattern - classic teleconnector correlation ... There’s been a recurring theme over the last 15 years for unusually early cold and potential’s for snow in the middle latitudes of North America…very early. I believe it’s part of the pacific heat budget and the swelling of the Hadley cell that’s been noted/papered. This is forcing the AB phase of the Pacific basin ... thus intrusion of NP/EP blocking. This resulting in organized R-wave geometries that are unusually proficient cold deliveries earlier in transition seasons.