Typhoon Tip

I joked ... and of course got zero likes ( muah haha ), forecasting the dreaded apocalyptic "nosnowmegettin' " winter - does anyone have the plumbs to forecast that? I mean, take out the 2012 Halloween storm that was a pretty frickin' close to an an apocalyptically bad winter, and should show that if we can get that close - it's kind of like deep field astronomy and this S.E.T.I stuff. The old argument, if it can happen once in a cosmos that for all intents and purposes is so vast that to attempt to conceive of it in any finite terms pretty much escapes all effective meaning and therefore ...doesn't exist, that means that it probably happened more than once. I submit that in a GW/cc world, one that's already put up a year like that one, it's just a matter of time. That person that makes that call and is is proven right? I got a hunch they go down in history as the the most buried unsung genius ever - haha

I have a hypothesis growing ... one existentially based/anecdotal, but hey, ideas gotta start somewhere. Basically, we've already lost winters to global warming along the 45th parallel/ E of ORD. Zomb! Firstly, that doesn't mean it can't snow - don't panic just yet. Though such a future is unavoidable some years to decades in the future, for now it just means that the averages are already now breaching a base-line that is too warm to support cryo months. Most run-ins with cold and concomitant snows are going to be more pattern specific...thus, ephemeral in nature. We have to remember, there are no neat and tidy boundaries in the atmosphere. Climate zones are moving N; we know this is true as it is being empirically shown, and, these emergence' fit climate models - both primitive and more recently sophisticated. Be that as it may that does not mean it won't snow and get brutally cold, if perhaps spanning ever shorter duration(s) south of the perceived climate transition "boundaries" - virtual in nature...etc, etc. That all said, my hypothesis is that a climate transition virtual boundary has already shifted north of the Mid Atlantic and New England regions from central latitudes and S. Part of that is formulated by the personal observation that more and more ... we seem to not get cryo-supportive events/air masses S of the 45th parallel across the conus and locally, *unless* there is an antecedent -EPO. It seems to be we are whittling away other teleconnectors that were always capable of doing it. The negative North Atlantic Oscillations seem less effectual in delivering cold - though they are rarefied in recent decade as a separate matter. The PNA can be positive, yet we're throwing up raining coastal storm types along the eastern seaboard, and also...as papers are publishing recently, the mean storm tracks are observed(ing) migrating N; these +PNA's are delivering more "Lakes Cutter" type tracks. Also a warmer trajectory for the TV-eastern OV/NE regions. The East Pacific Oscillation domain space is very high in latitude, up over the Alaskan sector and adjacent lower Beaufort sea and N Pac/ NW Territories of Canada, and in fact, ...overlaps the Arctic Oscillation domain space. When that field is negative ( i.e., blocking heights and or directive cold loading into N/A), it is sort of like "the last of the cold delivery teleconnectors" to go. The larger scale geological/geographical circumstance in the way N/A is situated and immediately relays off the Pacific, "encourages" the EPO to bulge, and tap cold - if we look at the last 240 months of NASA averages, we see a relative cool offset over N/A for this reason. With the PNA and NAO seemingly reducing efficacy, the EPO has become much more the primary effective cold loading Canada and point south over the continent. The PNA and NAO, both seemed to to be less proficient in doing so within their own index correlations. These ladder indices share much more domain space with mid latitudes - particularly true in the PNA. The NAO is similar to the EPO, but ...the western limb of NAO's domain space is over a region of Canada that has been experiencing elevating temperatures even in winter months - so in the means..there's plausibility for research there, that perhaps the -NAOs are not as effective as they used to be at delivering cold to 40 N ( ORD-BOS). I have noticed that we are either partial/below normal temperature distribution/anomalies therein, with -EPOs, or... we seem to go right back to a new rest state that features vastly above normal temperatures. It's like one or the other, with less "normal" days in between. Normal days in climate ...they are almost as rare as any given departure, because they are just numbers that precipitate out of arithmetic means... But, the scatter plots are showing greater departures/extremes - and that is more like the new normal. If we took the EPO's out entirely? I think we have 60 to 70 F winters.

I never really watched the show. I was probably too young to care in the early part of the decade and didn't come into my own until Star Trek TNG sort of flipped the script on the singular stud model of sitcom television. Your "Mag PI" and "Night-Rider," resonant echoes of a 1980s patriarchal dominant line-toeing conservatism ( thankfully!) started extinguishing. Shows like TNG with all their aliens and different cultural tolerance built into theme, yet still with hierarchical command structure, played homage to both cultural modes, but was a reflection of the changing times.. What the hell am I babbling about ? Oh, I was into shows in the 1990s when I wasn't drunk at college. That was usually TNG reruns by then, "Simpsons" ... and "Family Guy" eventually. And "Frazier" loved that show. In fact, I don't think I ever regulared television other than Science Channel and PBS/Nova type stuff, since Frazier concluded. Oh, sports - okay.. I like the Patriots and Red Sox, Celtics and Bruins, but that's a different thing. Never dug on the stud shows though - both too young, and even if I were older, judging who I am, I'd-a been rooting for the villain to kick the stud's ass!

Well.. I read that ( bold ) and cringe, too. Firstly, I didn't say that it 'shit the bed' necessarily? I don't wanna be couched in that sort of admonishment/castigation thing. But, as to the bold, it's still better than it used to be. I think others have discussed this, and why, recently already, so no sense in drubbing the topic back up. Let's just cool-headed say, yeah...the GFS seems to have the better idea on this one and leave it at that. We don't have to oversell the Euro's perceived bad performance, or we're just as guilty as the oversell of the model we are evaluating. I would still take the Euro over the GFS as a gambler, even in the D4-6 window, but this was a particularly tough call for all guidance really. We are in a screaming fast pattern ( wind more so than wave spacing...).

As opposed to the more accurate seasonal forecasts prior to that Not trying to be a dink but, ... I don't think there's ever really been a boon era for seasonal forecasts. Some year, some individual seems to do have done particularly well.. And there's this propensity for adulation and 'rock-starring' - which is eye-rolling in most cases. But, that same individual's dice don't roll the seven on the fire bet that next year, and tho they may have won some residual clout for having had the one stellar performance, it's usually someone else's turn to roll an eleven and score. There are some techniques that can be considered, that may improve one's vision over climatology ( or the opposite if they're bad at this shit...), but frankly, there are key systemic, global changes that are becoming increasingly coherent spanning the last couple of decades, and until I start reading in plain text that the author is including those facets ( much less ...are even aware) than it's all really just crap- shoot entertainment in my estimation.

Something else to think about ... which, no one will most likely, is that the Euro from D5 was way over selling what is going to turn out to be a nuisance front for overnight tonight, ... much more so than the GFS ever did. Not saying the GFS was right per se ? It could be 'right' for lower impact, but having gotten there for the wrong reasons, too. That sometimes happens.. So we shouldn't readily extend credit there necessarily, either. I'm looking at the individual runs 00z Monday and wow did the Euro get lost in overproduction... Even 00z Tuesday it was still selling a quick Jersey bomb deal; while the GFS trended a little more developed across those days, it was N and waited 'til NS to really deepen matters. Sorry, the GFS wins this one from middle-range. There is definitely a culture of 'wait until the Euro' and a palpable if non-disclosed sense of 'relief' or 'gaiety' comes across from the weather enthusiasm sphere when the Euro happens to align with wants and desires. But, this journey this week proved hands down and incontrovertibly that the Euro was flat f'n wrong man, and the GFS was flat the whole time so out performed it. I've noticed that the GFS is like the red-headed step child model at times. And tho at times it deserves it, there are those other times where it's just gone and done better but few seem to recognize it.

Mm, I'm not as optimistic for that. This issue of the HC actually gets more burdensome and forcing on the flow as the winter matures. Cold heights only steepens the ambient gradient in the total atmospheric space, and by the time the HC relaxes ( did this last year ) we're already into the spring at lower latitudes ( Feb ). The papers discuss this as "shifting storm tracks northward" but ... gathering one's theoretical wit about themselves, that can mean just about anything that also includes shearing and/or velocity saturation -related negative interference, too. It's all part and parcel of the HC expansion issue that is permanently part of a warming world - unfortunately. And, we are beginning to see it physically manifest on storm behavior and modeling ( I feel ); which as an aside, this tendency to "cancel" storms going from extended to mid and shorter ranges is an emergent model performance error tendency. Unsure why the models seemed to need to 'correct' heights higher in the HC at the D5 temporal boundary ...but that seems to be a repeating, albeit, subtle theme of errors in recent decade. The Euro just did it. To your point, it probably doesn't help that climatology doesn't really stem-wound very many Cape Hatteras to western NS bombs in mid November. But, that climate isn't a preventative either - it just suggests its hard to come by this early. Whether this particular system succumbs to too much heights in the south/speed saturation because of the HC or not, that could happen anyway this early when a substantive negative mid level anomaly plumbs S into the residual seasonality.

And there's a system D8-10 coming into the NP that shows promise ... And notice the heights over GA/FL/ Gulf region have large gap spacing, and 582 dm contour is abeam or S of Miami... that's all a signal of compressibility to the flow and said NP system has a shot at burrowing its way into the TV and setting up a more proficient cyclogen response along the EC... Question is, does the model wait until day 5 again to suddenly go wait, global warming... f' if I forgot! Better jack the heights in the S to atone for it and then we go thru this absorption /cyclogenesis robbing shit all over again...

larger -scaled idiosyncrasies in positioning of major trough and ridge nodes around this side of the Hemisphere certainly plays a role, but I noticed something else leap out at me from the operational Euro's 00z solution. Particularly ...the D4 thru 6 evolution. I wrote about this yesterday at length, ironically - and no sooner... school's in session. This got wacked across our faces on this Euro's run: "...I used to refer to this as the "Miami rule" back in the day, ..and it still works actually, even though I was blissfully unaware, then, that what I was observing was the early onset of the former. I did a statistical analysis of east coast storms years ago ( talking 2002 or 2003 ), and found that 72 hours prior to the storm genesis ( usually when the governing mechanics are still not yet arrived/crossed the 100 W longitude ) if/when heights were > 582 DAM over Miami, and wind speeds were > than 35 kts, the Miami rule was in effect. Then, as the S/Ws succeeded that ~ 100 W their southern aspects began to absorb wave mechanics into the preexisting balanced upward wind anomaly. The troughs tended to morph into a positive slope geometry ...and onward, this then of course mitigated cyclogen parametrics - not absolutely... Just in part. But sometimes that part might be large, and mid range storms ended up weaker. ..." Thing is ... up thru yesterday, I had been monitoring the heights between the western Gulf of Mexico to Florida and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin, and they were lower. This run last night, en masse, corrected the 500 H up about 6 DAM on average, ...but I feel that is critical/threshold breaching in terms of getting the larger-toward-smaller scaled neggie interference going, and this run reflects it. If one starts on D4 and clicks through you can see the trough getting absorbed/sloping positive... This is a factor having to do with the HC expansion, which can be ephemeral ... or, in the case of climate change, a longer term systemic change. That latter is heavily papered... That said, it doesn't mean that we can't time a period in there when it happens to relax some - I mean, it's not like an immovable slab of concrete ..it's still just air. Anyway, this interference would take place regardless of the those other synoptic observations folks made yesterday, related to nuances in ridge trough positioning. So, basically add this to this mitigators. So, long of the short, the bigger H.A. signal may not bear fruit in terms of "big" ...but, supplying a system of any kind and probably middling is the way to go, because this 13th thru the 16th is just getting banged around by any reason the Earth's atmosphere can think of to cancel out a major system. Now, in addition to your observations re those ridges and trough, we got this height surplus correcting into the S and that's going to speed up the flow and start negatively interfering.. Pig pile on Heather Archembault I guess...

It's interesting watching the models go out of their way to engineer distractions to this thing ... ha

My guess is the Euro's coming in deep and menacing - gaiety and b-polar elation make friends out of dubious allies ... until the 18z GFS. At which point the steady diet of post content immediately precipitates how the Euro isn't as good as it used to be...

So far what I'm seeing is more of a validation for the anticipated(ing) amplitude period mid month ... These individual ideas are all over the place, but that's to be expected at this range.

It was trying at 00z/06z ... I'll look over lunch. But I'm often reading statements like this than I go look and I have no idea what the user thought was so great about it. Haha, you get more faith than that tho - just a little ..

It's certainly painted that way synoptically ... with green not blue, where the grid should have blue

And I want folks to note that cool relative offset region over N/A. I've noted some 2/3rd of the months since 2000 have features a relative cool region somewhere over our continent, and more the majority of that ~ 2/3rd have had said region over SE Canada and NE conus regions. It's enabling in a way... We are still in the top 3 contributors to anthropogenic gassing off all industrial peers on the planet, and we are consummately being protected from the "edge" extremes of warming. I find that fascinating. It's almost like ( being artsy and fun here...) Gaia can't get through to us, so she/he/it is turning up the oven to "Clean" while we are safe here outside the planet incinerating.. Can't sterilize the planet if it's chief asshole constituent toxifiers are in on it, so we get protected while the mass extinction bite species' dust -

I dunno ...this looks a snow sounding over Logan 42036969052 02414 113415 39019898

True, but that's a load balancing issue with networking and inherent limitations with internet traffic doing that - one should expect that. This other phenomenon seems to invent/emerge as though on-purpose just to butt bang at precisely the sorest butt time -

Yeah that 00z GGEM was the fun solution for today's date - so far... That's a 24 hour high impact snow and wind coastal on that dreamy solution. And since the flow is happenstance marginally compressible along and < the 35th parallel down there, the slower movement overall can happen - ho man.. Problem is, ...other than this being the GGEM, is that I've seen that modeled like that and then those HC heights correct up in time and then interference kicks in ... and there's your extended modulation

Told ya

Fwiw - https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2913/2019-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-tied-for-second-lowest-on-record/

This is utterly fascinating for us nerds.. This is a real phenomenon known as "arctic ( or polar ) low" .. I've never actually seen a model try this, but boo rah for the GGEM for having the plumbs to give it a "whirl"

No ...because there's a big storm next week. We did a statistical correlation out of frustration/tongue-in-cheek back in college, and found that indeed... there was a tendency for some dipshit to kick the plug out of the wall down at NCEP whenever the pattern looked particularly interesting - ...of course, we're taking liberties there with the "cause" for the delays/outages, but, sufficed it is to say, there is an eerie 'gremlin' there.

Heh, 'cept it wouldn't be "gradient flow," in the sense that it's just circumstantial with some pattern we gotta deal with. Not that you think so...just sayn'. The problem with the heights in the south is a global one. It's vaster and longer than circumstantial to pattern(s). I can refer users/members/readers to lots of formal papers describing the Hadley Cell ballooning and encroaching into the lower Ferrel latitudes. I used to refer to this as the "Miami rule" back in the day, ..and it still works actually, even though I was blissfully unaware, then, that what I was observing was the early onset of the former. I did a statistical analysis of east coast storms years ago ( talking 2002 or 2003 ), and found that 72 hours prior to the storm genesis ( usually when the governing mechanics are still not yet arrived/crossed the 100 W longitude ) if/when heights were > 582 DAM over Miami, and wind speeds were > than 35 kts, the Miami rule was in effect. Then, as the S/Ws succeeded that ~ 100 W their southern aspects began to absorb wave mechanics into the preexisting balanced upward wind anomaly. The troughs tended to morph into a positive slope geometry ...and onward, this then of course mitigated cyclogen parametrics - not absolutely... Just in part. But sometimes that part might be large, and mid range storms ended up weaker. 2001 March being foisted above the M/A and busting a lot of forecasts was a particular operational nightmare that might have been avoided if these markers were noted ( which they were in place ) prior to the big vortex attempt by the models to plumb it through the M/A. It did, but distribution perturbed by the S-SE Hadley expression..etc..etc. It depends also on other factors. None of this precludes storms. That's not the correct read. Its about morphology and in many cases, speed of events as they caught up in a concomitantly faster flow. Although I do believe slow moving juggernauts are rarefying in lieu of middling events in succession, as increasing in tendency. There's two types of ridging over the Gulf and Florida/adjacent SW Atlantic. There is ephemeral ridging that rolls out ahead of deep troughs that are plunging toward TX. These heights may briefly rise, but don't usually have the attending > 35 kt geostrophic wind. The other type is canvased and linked/rooted in Planetary events, and is there at all times. This latter form, is the one that compresses and speeds up the flow as a rest state regardless, and is also an aspect of the swelling Hadley Cell. The other option is just have the damn HC over take our latitudes ( but I wonder if that is geo-physically even possible ..) but then winters are a thing of the past as we know them.

We've had two white thanks givings with accumulation/plowable since 2014 in northern Middlesex, fwiw - or maybe it was one .. But, I recall returning from Va Beach that weekend and there was still snow remaining, I think three years ago.

It does .. that's historic 'looking' relative to calendar. November witch's can be vicious but you don't see those features at this time of year to frequently ... ( the core of that sucker's under 522 dm pasing over 55 F SSTs, and the later delta-T is 16 C between SE of Cape Cod and Worcester.. The thickness ( funny you mentioned 12/05) is right at the packing limit. Which means, upright elevated frontal plains and very proficiently UVM under the best Q-G forcing, ... the surface low well. anyway. But the "attention" part you mention is a bit heightened for me because this thing has a loud tele signal and we discussed this three days ago, that we needed to start looking for systems to emerge in this time frame - well... here we are. It's not as easily dismissed.