Typhoon Tip

On the back bumper of your car? I'd say about 1/32 more than the actual hood - you have to remember ... even after 8 to 10 hours of non-use, the engine block is cube of iron and will continue to liberate small small quanta of therms to molecular water that is trying to free...

Yeah... if one wants to engage in this past time ... one must be aware/remember that there are all kinds of different intellectual colors and intents for other's engagement - haha...

Not over you

Sort of agree... I give that 60%, but that's mid way on a positive slope (so to speak...). It's the low N-S amplitude in how this is coming nearly due E egress off the Pacific Ocean ... it isn't doing certitude any favors here. Plus... the N/stream involvement is adding another wild-card... Not sure that's clear until the southern stream is amply sampled and resident in the flow...such that it's transitive effectiveness on modulating stream interactions can be assessed properly by the models.

The context of the time was the N/stream ... to which "lobes" certainly qualify... The entire PV never phases anyway... omg - heh... 'Magine that? 10 closed isohypsic lines S of LI... ?? Hey... Will will attest, I've been the biggest proponent of the less phased total evolution the whole way ... I'm just being forced to capitulate to more of it by the fact that the Euro is inside D5 as of 12z yesterday (I'm catching up and haven't seen the 00z ...), and both that run and the 00z had N/stream party crashing ...

we've been saying that all week... Is this new to you ? I know I get it... you want to see it in the actual model illustration ... I guess with the benefits of a classical education/experience in this game ... you and others will learn to one day trust the advice - of course...now is a good time for it tunnel it's way to Lake Superior just for saying that

That's an interesting metric ...for me anyway.. .Considering that I've mentioned that with this and other lead up scenarios in the past, that it seems the models will over due the QPF ... particularly in these open wave scenario... Still, there's enough counterpoint data to suggest this may just be a rarer phenomenon like y'all been saying -

Yeah but the Euro phased ... beginning that process at 96 hours may be that none of these models have it right yet

Just be sure to factor in any trend analysis is going to be totally useless if there's going to be a phase with the northern stream because neither of these models are showing that

Right right ... until the Euro has another snow bomb run down here.

Anyway neither one of these models was phasing like the euro did it 0Z and 12 Z If the Euros gonna be right these solutions you're seeing tonight are going to be totally different ... so far

Problem with the icon is it doesn't have any of those fancy color coding for a mixed ptypes; either rain or snow but that entire area of Southern New England is sleet and freezing rain absolutely roaring

Neither one of those models are showing anything similar to what the Euro was doing FYI

Oy the NAM

GFS can't stop there ... After a vicious backside cold gong it goes ahead and rolls out the air mass just in time (phew that was close) ...sparing any snow on the next system. That oughta get the locals in cozy brotherly lovin' feelin'

Yeah..... I'm not going with the GFS is a terrible model meme - no way... Not when this thing isn't even sampled in the physical sounding grid..... I mean I get where y'all's comin' from but ... it could still be right - even if we doubt it. You now, if a GFS low attempts ... a compromised occluded/triple point run out underneath and damaging ice after a half foot wallop would atone for that cold BL/backed by high pressure just fine... I mean, there's little imagination being supplied to compromises so... I'd hold off the ridicule...

Our storm is raising blizzard warnings in the Sierras ... and wind warnings to a lot of lower elevations to the west. Almost El Nino looking ...almost... But, often times bigger events start leaving calling cards in the west ... the old, "this system has a history of ..." Just a reflection of being very dynamic /powerful mechanically...

The Canadians should just say f-it Kevin, ... you're now in charge of parameterizing and tweaking Navier Stokes -

Know what's gonna be a fun solution is when this gets into the RGEM's bee-house... ho man..

heh... engaging in some schadenfreude are we ?

That solution almost looks too fast .. but.. been concerned about a pancaked system all along so we'll see -

Let's predict which user melts first when the 18z GFS pumps out a veiny high hard-one through Albany again ... j/k but ... maybe not -

That'll be the the ice storm

Perhaps targeting the straw-man ... I don't think anyone should be surprised... That's the one contention in this that's been the most glaring and confident; one should be leaning toward colder/BL forcing -

You gotta be f'n kidding me ...