Typhoon Tip

Well... the GFS is about 3 latitude away from blasting a 4-6"/5hr burst on exit of the 2nd wave... I'd call that a whopper correction actually... I also think personally that this whole ordeal may be a moderate icestorm with 3-6" on top, from N to S - not completely sold, but that's how I'm leaning. I don't like the tuck look on the first wave - if that synoptics is even 70 percentile of what constructs, you probably icing concerns further south than even some of these higher res guidance .... hint hint, the GFS ain't seeing that. He's two ballz and bat short of full inning in that game -

Will .. .get a load of that NAM's 18z low near the Cape. Sorry folks, that's shaving T's off guidance in that set up man -

wait... i f hate ice storms... what the hell am I doin'

That's like perfect for crushing ice! wow -

My buddy was living at 825' up just N of rt 2 back then at ground zero and said that half that QPF just came on to fast too even accrete - jeez

Course...this synopsis you've interpreted gets muddled pretty quickly with a Euro-esque meso over the Cape like that -that's a barrier jet incarnate there -

Nah... the ICON and GGEM both brought that back pretty coherently in their respective runs so it's solidly got good modeling integrity and the outlook is hugely intact -

I'm actually a little surprised by this SE adjusting stuff... This is pretty much the opposite of the seasonal trend to go the other direction, having done so in this same time range when said trend has usually playout and left every hold a big bag-o wtf -. fascinating - not sure if it's time to bite, tho. In fact, my advice would be to chalk this up as some decent modeling cinema, only ...for now, and be grateful for it, because if we didn't have this our beloved weather hobby would be about as uninspired as gay unic at lesbian convention.

OH ha...Freudian interpretation on that one -

The best imaginable solution would be to have 2" of accretion stop at his grid trunk, and it just be 32.1 liquid over the powerlines from his region S.. Oh, said trunk ends across the street. And, in the middle of battery acid in the belly envy he hasn't experienced since his soul mate went down on his greatest enemy, his boss calls him demanding he turn in that sale report at that job he hates...

Lol - don't forget the other reason, it's the GGEM

Well than that's what we're collectively targeting ... great. Consensus leader board -

Oh that's still in the cards for March Prolly be an east-baster just for the impudent implicit idea that -NAO means good for us.. but -NAO of some kind that doesn't snow but f-up the entire April-May part of MLB is a slam dunk - But beyond sarcasm and grousing, there are larger conceptual reasons to look for that. Hopefully they fail

I mean we'll find most years post ... ~ Feb 10.. the slope of season recovery starts - 2015 is about the greatest polar exception as is physically plausible, and it happened.. but by and large, Feb 10+ is about big bombs with intervening sun eating snow banks back... OR, no bombs, and the sun eating snow banks back. Either way, the pack retention curve isn't enthusiast's friend. The solar nadir ends on the 10th and streets start steaming when the snow ends prior to noon and the sun comes out. I always thought of Feb as kind of the antithesis of Augie ... same deal though. You can be in the thick of the seasonal weeds, but there are subtleties in either that betray the faltering ... It matters because June 15 won't be very different than August 15.. .but August 15 can be very different than Sept 21...particularly if we're frosting early. Feb can be powder 'cane on the 20th but be weird 80 F on March 15 like three weeks later. You're not going to get that between Dec 15 and Feb 15 Oh wait ... not supposed to anyway -

I mean look at this damming nose in the GEPs !

shit is this still like 5th period -

That's one of the better ice-storm sigs I've seen on a guidance in a long while. Even for the Euro...look at 72 hours and it has a meso low over the Cape that's buckin' for the same strength as the main circulation that is moving S of NYC ? I've never heard of a warm solution below 4K with synoptic features like that. It'll come down to dp insert and the actually thermal profile of the drain column...which if it is 33 ...it's 33... but if it's 28...it's going to be 28 is all - sorry. Unless this run is wrong with those features/evolution between 48-90 hours..

Easy to visualize a 60 hour CF type gradient cutting from maybe BED or just west of there, to NW RI ... probably even for higher res models, that's -2 correction west of that line in that interior heat sink where NNE flow gets buried ... That kind of sets up the next slug to be a problem. I think it was Will and I mentioning yesterday that this would be a now-cast nightmare for that sort of shit.

I lived in Rockport in '84/'85 ... long enough to sample the climate cuisine ... I can tell you, icing there is difficult -

Funning or not... actually when the climate is fluxing those rules fly out the door. There's dubious linear dependency at best with climate usage like that. Sides, models don't do climate in their runs -

this is angle of ascent -related duration in this run. The first wave is more than less melding into the 2nd one, to just make it a protract deal ..but because the two are like 1,200 naut miles of total ENE-WSW flow space the whole package takes 30 hours to get thru. that's an awful long time to 29.6 F moderate super cooled mist in rain drops... I can already hear the timber mortars and the sounds of distant chainsaws.

ah now that i've looked at the Euro that's big ice signal for places like Orange to Ayer to ORH triangulum with sleet probably 1.5" deep in Manchester NH

I'll tell ya ...imho what the Euro's doing here is attempting to coalesce this around more of a singular slug of S/W mechanics/open wave ... leading eventually to bomb upon exit. The problem is ..it doesn't have quite enough cold/BL forcing to make sure it's a NJ to ACK model track ... so it ends up at 72 hours with that odd looking wipe open central barograhic layout. I mean who knows if all that's right but the Euro inside of D4 is tough to knock -

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

heh..well, thx -hopefully we know that's tongue-in-cheek commiseration .. . tainted humor ftl -