Typhoon Tip

come to think about it ...that'd be a fun geek study to put up the top 20 high temperatures, ranked 1 to 20 ...with the wind direction at the time the temp was taken... Getting really tedious...the average wind in the 6-hours preceding... Then, add DPs - Do Nashua, Logan

yeah...I'm wondering if the winds can go more west in this new run... thing is, at our latitude, it's hard to move 77 legit DPs much over 95... I mean it can happen and has... rarely, but I doubt it was on a 210 wind when it did

Mm... 12z Euro comes in and I may thread that out... if that hasn't already happened.. I just went over the FOUS grid ( NAM ) and 00z Monday has +22 to +24C 850 mb temperature over Logan.... while it is 30 C in the T1 temperature at Albany at 8 f'n pm no less, 31 C at 18z Sunday afternoon... See, some previous solutions had more of a west wind and if that were to say 'correct' that way and that ALB air comes down slope... ooph The thing about that is that the wind is 210 deg at Boston, which is probably picking up some S. Coastal marine contamination... Out in Metrowest that may be west of that diffuse mixed BL and be suffering above MOS guidance given to that thermal compression ... That is a rare 850 layer there and previous NAM runs had a 240 deg wind over eastern Mass ...so maybe/maybe not we get protected... The raw adiabat from a 850 mb tall BL staring at 24 C in 100 F at 1000 sigma so it's probably 102 if maximized at Logan ... So there's got to be something limiting the realization of that potential. It looks like the wind direct because the RH's are all < 50 % ... open sky between noon at 6 pm on Sunday with 850 mb temperature pasing +24C ... 88 at the surface - okay NAM I just wonder if the wind is wrong ... it's 20 degs of dial away from Heat Warning ( probably ...)... interesting.

I was suggesting a thread for if/when the 'historic' nature became more certain? ... seemed higher confidence being inside of D5 in the Euro ...but, this was a very sensy scenario and minor perturbations having bigger impacts on the potential.. i.e., no wiggle room. ...I'm in Brian's camp this morning ... seems more 94 to 97-like ...not sure that's worth a thread. Although, the SW/W EML/thermal air layer ejection is note-worthy. But the atmosphere is fumbling around and f'ing up the hydrostatic/wind circulation medium too much to either sustain it, or purify the heat potential on Sunday now. It'll probably happen now ...watch. Anyway, the overall complexion of this has alleviated some... more of a standard heat wave, but watch for Sunday I guess. The problem is we're right on the westerlies... It's not the best climo synopsis for it - and it's weird. I mean ...590 heights and the westerlies find a way to be outside the ridge?? wtf is happening - Today is a real piece of shit work. Wow - digression in coming... this is what it means to live in this vomit hole east of the Berkshires .... I love winter, but I f'n can't stand this asshole geography in July.... SSE wind packing saturable air east of elevations, while westerly pre-warm frontal slope flow actually negatively feeds back by trying to warm it! It's a persecution complex built right in around here.. lol. Anyway, the inversion protects it from actually getting eroded out of here; so it means we rot in it like a catacomb, eternally... It's almost like San Francisco's famed month "Foggaust" on roids I've seen this many times in the summer here. We get our coldest weather about 10 minutes before the front - metaphorically speaking... but, we could surge almost 15 F overnight when the boundary finally overcomes the geology/topography and mixes down...then, ...rocket to 94 F at ASH-BED-BDL tomorrow by 4 pm for a total 24-hour change of 30 F across the the weakest boundary physically plausible but still could be defined by atmospheric physics ...all because Mt f'um Greylock protects the sludge to the east ... This is the summer version of an ice-storm as weakly analogous? This is that same shit that jams in ahead of a warm front and forces an occluded triple point S of the region in winter, then when the occluded front comes through, you actually get a temp spike in the "cold sector" behind the low... Only we're doing it 30 F warmer up the dial. Right now the WPC analysis shows the front occluded west of Alb... That has to come through ... the NAM had RH2 and RH3 dropping below 60% be 4pm even as far E as KBOS so maybe it sweeps house... my guess is it takes longer...

Everyone in here is a zealot… Dude it doesn’t matter whether in Rhode Island or Maine plus I’m only kidding.. heh

Don’t let it ... this kind of chatter starts every year shortly after the solstice ... gradually it reaches a fever pitch around mid October when winter forecast start ending society in an apocalyptic cryosphere ... ... and then of course spring rolls around with post mortem analysis over what went wrong .. gee we wonder what

00z NAM is roasting eastern mass Sat now. 95. Mixing level quite high 80 for a low brick mortar and street environments

This was a very well advertised back door air mass ... I’m actually impressed the models handled this so well

You guys are funny you can’t take 30 hours of a cool anomaly and it’s really not even that ridiculous we were 74 here for a high today 78 yesterday I can understand you guys living right down the shore within 10 miles of the coast like that because you’re getting right into the marine flow but it’s not terrible out here in majority reality

Saturday sneakily turning into one of the hot days too I know they’ve been advertising Sunday through Tuesday but you might as well throw Saturday into the kettle looking at these numbers it’s gonna be about 94 all across the metro west of Boston around Hartford Connecticut down in New York City with increasing dewpoint

That is really impressive watching the Nam raise temperatures through the 70s Friday night I mean that’s got to be hard to do it’s not like it’s rising thru the 50s into the 60s it’s rising through the 70s

actually... it may be 90/97/92 in this run cycle...

Yeah..the model run ( Euro's) owing to the precarious nature of trying to run a heat wave through here when we are literally right on the fence of the westerlies like that... In this run, we don't get the heat wave. We do get the one hot day in Sunday... That said, I'd be leary of this returning in future guidance... It's been waffling anyway and this run is almost keeping that discontinuity ...continuous - if that makes any sense.

Is that list all time ? ...as in going back hundreds of years

Fwiw .. 12z NAM is pretty hot on Saturday PHL-BOS... with T1 of 31C in PHL offering a plausible 2-meter slope to 36C down that way, and 33C Boston ... we're already as of Saturday in the 92 to 97 in F standing outside the Chamber Of Commerce/City Hall in those cities at least in the NAM But here's the thing... that's almost antecedently required for Sunday to have a shot at 100... Probably PHL to NYC makes it anyway...but we need that 93 with maturing 850 slab moving overnight into Sunday morning...such that there's a high launch Sunday morning...

Oh ...the flat 500 mb flow at our latitude makes all of this uneasy and precarious... I see/admit that right off... I want to see the 12z for continuity because ... I could see this just like not happening - zero circulation orientation latitude to play with on this thing isn't sending confidence shimmering through the event prospects...no.. But, if the Euro's allowed to verify...

wow... I was focused in the nearer terms ( through the end of the mid range...) as I should but still...that extended GFS from the 00z ( D9/10 ...) actually makes the Sonoran/W heat ejection lending to Sunday/Monday's heat look like a little brother... Wow... nearing 28 C passing over Lake Superior en route to NE on a WNW trajectory would probably be all-time absurdity territory... But, ...it's D9 so - ha

thanks! I mean to get more confidence - let's get the 12z consistency then pull that trigger? I mean shit...it's an important phenomenon .. at least to me. I've always thought that deep cold and high heat were just as ominous and threatening to civility and should be recognized in the fab four: lightning, floods, tornadoes and hurricanes [ big heat, arresting cold ] ... You know, I remember in the late 1970s through the 1980s, the early early days of mass media weather's real meteoric rise...they used to have this "Stockman's Advisory" ...it was available everywhere, but more frequently and notably it was implemented where ( duh ...) there was livestock and farming concerns... But, in Chicago, ...1995, that became one of the more deadly attributable weather events in history, with many people dying from heat exposure - why the f is this not a thing? But...hell...it's probably not so much an issue in either sense, heat or cold, given to modern environmental controls and ability to see it coming ...etc... so whatever. It's still a notable thing if it's worthy yeah.

Extraordinarily hot week for Boston is plausible if not likely in that operational Euro synoptic evolution... The only thing preventing a daily high of 91 to 99 every day from Saturday through Thursday (and bias the higher end...) would be impossible to pin down swaths of cloud perturbation/ convection debris ... which as per that run, most days are > 70% uninterrupted insolation. Otherwise, that is one of the cleanest big heat looks I've seen along and N of the 40th latitudes from Chicago to Boston... With four out of those six days mentioned having 850 mb temperatures exceeding 19C ... Sunday in particular has a shot at 100 degrees in my estimation. If those parametrics verify ... climo rotisseries from around HFD to Metrowest of Boston cook. Period. Particularly if that BL wind can avergae > 240 degrees ...Logan itself will bathe in Boston city proper's dumpster fire smoke... 22.5 C at 850mb compressing down slope out of the Capital District? I guarantee you, those posting machine numbers of 94 to 96, unwittingly ( or wittingly..) spinning this as merely having HIs of 100 this weekend would be doing this set up a disservice... I could see that making 101 or 102 ..DP depending.. I mean if we pig's bum our way to 75 DP ...we probably cap at proper human core temps The GGEM is lot, lot colder however ... with synoptics clocking in with a 100.9 and 101.9 respectively... The GFS is, as expected, the cooler of all three... But even it has a nice SW/W heat release signal at 850mbs... All three models have an expulsion of BL to 800 mb EML/kinetically charged air layer coming across at perfect timing...12z Sunday -00z Monday time frame,... with the GFS showing a NE CONUS regionally engulfing 850 mb maximum right at 8pm Sunday evening from Ohio to Maine and along the coastal plane down to D.C.... That means that the mixing level penetrated through that level, so... even with it's max T's looking more 20C-ish at 850, it's probably getting hotter than that adiabat because the BL is taller than 850 - not uncommon to stretch things in higher heating potential and this is one of those set ups... Caveat emptor: clouds as mentioned... This is a bit of a different look in transport... The 500 mb deep layer hydrostatic layout is rather flat-ish looking ... It's flat, but stable nonetheless, with even the GFS finally stopping its antics with introducing permutations in the flow that rasps the heat from ever getting NE of Pittsburgh. *BUT* that west middle tropospheric flow with SW winds transporting heat/DPs up underneath does offer a subtle MCS instability look so... that'll be lingering. This should almost be extracted and used as a thread ... I'd like to see the 12z suite... because if this looks to repeat, this could be memorable hot day in terms of regional envelopment...Where PHL-LGA-BOS-PWD all have chances simultaneously at 100 F on Sunday ...oh 4pm ... and it's somewhat rare to see that. It would be pretty historic and may in fact be anyway if all these sites 98.9 anyway... What is interesting, also ... is that this is back to the original signal from six or seven days ago, when the Euro put up this sort of thing. It's been pretty stubborn... the other models have really invented more reasons not to get hot... The 500 mb height layout has slowly modulated flatter, but the 850s and other lower tropospheric parameters/synoptics seemed to have returned... Maybe the flattening of the 500 mb sent the GFS/GGEM looking for cooler kernels...

I meant normal as in not terribly unusual yeah colder than normal duh Maybe one standard deviation below normal which is like what we call “normal colder than normal” if that makes sense

We've been inside the box of this air mass for 18 hours and the tenor is awe at our autumnal plight or something... Talk to me 2:45 Sunday afternoon ... days like today are normal

in any case... might be a fun nerd spreadsheet to put up the ranks of T/TD spread ... I'd do it with my shimmering life and all but heh, I don't have the data to begin with - it's an hunch that as the DPs rise... the tops start to lop but I wonder what the greatest combo was. Probably hot saturday in '75? but wasn't there a pig bum's air mass in the 1940s

Yeah..I think that might be right at the edge - those events perhaps... Even over those Iowa cornfields in 2011 with that overcooked ham air mass and those 84 F DPs they were only putting up 98 ...'course that's a HI of 120 million but... The juggernaut heat events tend to be lower DPs.. but not always.. If the day dawns 80 at Logan with a west drift and 22 or 23C at 850 and nothing on satellite denser than llv bio mist clear to Chicago, you might make 101 over 73 by accident of a commercial air liner's jet plume wafting past the tarmac..ha

mm..maybe yeah. The Euro's inside of 5 ...and even 4 with Saturday being 72 -84 hours at max heat, and that model's rep/verification is pretty typically harder to beat. That said, it has taken some hits in the last year... Again, again again...it's an outlier with the Canadian and GFS more pedestrian ... Hot either way, ...a matter of how much so. Even in these lesser models it may be 93

You didn't ask me ..buut.. it's hard to set a 98 over a 75 at our latitude ... We kinda need it to be June 15 to July 1... otherwise we aren't getting quite enough solar input to heat a theta-e rich column to that temperature. We can...but it takes a lot of help. Not saying much ..no. If it's 96 over 69 your still jammin your head up a pig's ass just sayn'. I don't think it's ever been 100 over 75 around here ? Will or someone with stats might know..