Typhoon Tip

What does 'RONI will be moderate', mean. RONI is inherently an ONI minus a spatial limitation because the ENSO band is being increasingly isolated by the HC expansion, but also just because the oceanic basins are blazin' away anyway - it's really all fucked up. So a "moderate" RONI implies a decent amount of muting effect? I guess. If we really understand what that means both conceptually and wrt the practical mechanics, the ENSO scalar numbers may rise and fall below a wider and wider gap of threshold/boundary. In other (hypothetical example range) words, we'd going need to observe an ENSO sigma be > +1.5, or < -1.5, to really correlate to the general circulation modes of the mid latitude. Otherwise, it only looks at times like it is correlating, but interceding random variances then break correlation, which denies the assumption of a truly coupled state. My own present intuitive feel for this ( ...seeing as that's worth so much shit, lol ) is that we are not going to see an ENSO breach whatever the lower bound is. That said, the non-warm ENSO is a kind of false La Nina, where the winds behave like a cold phase but it's not really in that mode - good luck parsing out how much in either case. Isn't CC so much fun

Another in these so-called 'fake cold' mornings.. 37 with car top frozen dew, nothing on the lawn though. Meanwhile, 45 was the low up on the hill at Worcester AP. Up to 57 ... goodly bounce is going on. Looking at NAM soundings... should be about 76 if it were July, but with sloped tepid October sun, maybe just a 70 nick. Not sure... it's getting late in the solar shoulder season and we're really only 4 weeks from entering the perennial min so some challenges.

No chance their just parroting what's meme-popularized in the razor sharp cutting scientific insight and intuitively gifted social mediasphere, either, huh

Sorry, Ray ... wasn't intending to derail your winter thread. LOL seriously tho.

So ...what exactly was I going for LOL

Okay, I was responding to that post - within which you did not specify "this country" I wasn't aware if there's any back ground context preceding - Having said that... I agree in so much that people don't notice what does not cause them inconvenience more directly than it has. However, the fact that there are examples of this abroad should cause some pause anyway ... but that's perhaps a different discussion.

It's a dumbing down of population, one that then became subjected to enormous data; and a negative feedback of the former preconditioning, they suffer bad processing and "unconstrained interpretation" of the daily tsunamis of "humanity's honesty". They were first made less incapable of categorical management ( mentally...), so then reality looks like an unmanageable unhinged cloud of threats to them. It's really become sociological crisis in society. All dimensions. Decision making and judgements failing to screen through very good, if at all, objective analytics, seeds frenetic states, paranoia, good old fashioned fear. There's also a goodly amount of moral degradation because the illustration that same information drowning is painted in, is almost always dystopian and mimicry of selfishness - why is anyone willing to bend over society, when society looks like it's "bending them over". And then ...asking them to judge characters and vote? - good luck It's why "populism" is making a comeback. Populism gives rise to dictatorships - or prone to that occurrence throughout history, by the way. It's not just America either. It's what technology is doing to humanity in a great evolutionary experiment our species has embarked upon. It started with the Industrial Revolution, and has really gotten uncontrolled - particularly spanning the last 30 years of technology acceleration. Folks may not be able to articulate and/or quantify in sophistication/understanding, but damn well can intuit and abstractly sense .. But this latter form of awareness lends to uncertainty. Uncertainty = fear at group capacity. --> contractions and pull away from progressive ideologies, seeking "safe traditions" - which unfortunately ... are on the wrong side of history, because those same traditions also got us into a state of climate crisis... It's not gonna end well, folks.

I play this game every year. I try for October 15; not sure what my success vs failure in winning that date is on average. I've had years where I could not make it ... like it was 48 in the place some dawn, with frost out there on the lawn, and yeah, the forecast was 64 for high but mmm. The house has a 'cold memory' when the sun's not exactly heating the house this late in the year. One year ..I think it was 2009, my in-laws had ripening tomatoes and new yellow flowers on Thanks Giving as we toured their huge garden in cargo shorts weather. I think I made it to early Dec that year ... It was 57 in here this morning. I could have given the place a puff of heat but it feels weird to do that when it's going to be 80 from Saturday to next Wednesday ...

https://phys.org/news/2025-09-antarctic-sea-ice-emerges-key.html

This really isn't true... (bold). There is well documented increased frequency of phenomenon that struck agriculture. The objective/observed reality of the Serbian climate refugees, a diaspora out of native farming regions due to climate change took place 15 years ago, and caused political-geodesic instability too... That's already occurred. There is empirically measured oceanic level rise that is inundating island nations, and also effecting an increased frequency of coastal storm impacts. Increasing numbers of deadly heat waves have struck European regions. Droughts in Australia have become increasingly more desiccating over time. All but impossible hydro management due to low predictive onset of excessive extremes of rainfall and associated inundation, followed by extraordinarily fast drying phases, have been plaguing interior Eurasia and Asia proper. All of these examples are both empirically measured, then ... mathematically proven to be attributed to alterations in the climate, which are connected to changes in the atmospheric circulation modal behaviors, all around the globe. It may be suffice it to say that they haven't happen enough? Not enough so to really garner the attention ( that they should...), which enables this kind of disrespect of the significance, and also ... false narrative/presentation - that would be apropos enough. But saying hasn't been the case, is false.

yeah, this description ^ is more so here. I called it frost, but it wasn't the direct crystal condensation variety. The dew on the car tops froze aoa 36. No evidence of grass/ground coverage. Very marginal. So I guess this was the nadir, now we go hugely the other way. If the high really does anchor right on top like the guidance pin then the nights may decouple and favor cold in New England at nights relative to the total synoptics of the GL/OV/NE region. Big diurnals, with some weighting down of afternoon readings.

Oh, I see what's going on. It's the same modeling phenomenon I've been noticing happening during JJA/summers lately for that matter. Guidance et al have this tendency to anchor and stall the surface high pressure right on top of us. Meanwhile +2 or more sigma 500 mb ridges roll over the top... Getting a Bermuda surface ridging actually S of our latitude seems to be a difficult feat by modeling nowadays - at that charm to the climate change till I guess... But the idiosyncratic limitation on heat then kicks in because high right on top, stops proficient mixing. The models don't seem to like doing it from just diurnal overturning alone - they like to have some sort of WSW gradient actively doing the mixing for them. That's probably why we see all the current 80+F prognostic 2-meter temperatures stuck back in the Great Lakes.

While it's certainly enough to delay any affectation of seasonal change ... I'm not seeing that the 850 mb/lower thickness intervals as being very excessive - relative to climo. It seems the models are trying to pack most of this late heat spell into the 500 mb heights. Sometimes I wonder if the modelers put coefficient muting factors into the framework. Control run-away excessive scenarios from taking off. Like "synergy" blockers. - just sarcasm. Whatever it is, the 500 mb non-hydrostatic impression alone looks straight up like a streak of days hosting record breaking temperatures... But, the lower troposphere is being held too cool to realize that. In 2020 ( and I think last year too - ), we saw 80F in the first two weeks of November. It's not too late to cook up some heat. Things have to be ideal though this late.

36 fantastic drainage decoupling night. 1K ORH never lower than 44. Big ranges... "fake" cold as the locals often play it

Not gonna beat the dead horse again, but as I posted several times, it’s just the biological pathology of evolution that we are slaved to physical senses; we don’t believe it until it hurts, by the time climate change hurts … it will be too late; so that’s why we’re doomed I could’ve written the book he wrote I’m sure

at a glance we're frosting in the interior in SNE's climo cold spots dunnite. should have no issues decoupling with DPs in the 35-40 range under gaping wound heat hemorrhaging sky. not sure if the DPs do that 7 pm bounce back

Man, check out MEX machine numbers. They're over +15 ..approaching +20 at a D5 range. It's getting easier to do that now that we're into October ( +15 on July 20th is about 108 F haha), but still... MEX is weighted by climatology the farther out in time. By any D5, there's a significant amount of negative weight there - unless they've changed that product derivative/philosophy... But these numbers in the 00z run are up into the low to mid 80s from BDL to ASH on Sunday. Upper 70s to low 80s beginning Saturday thru mid next week, otherwise. The subtext to this being ... if removing the climate weighting, what's the "real" potential here. I gotta figure it's not a lot higher though - not sure the sun is up to the task this late in the year. What's the ceiling? This reminds me of the November balm that took place in 2020, when for 4 or so days there were 50 F lows followed by 80+F highs. I figure for that + maybe 4 to 6 degrees?

Man was that a good baseball game

you realize you just doomed not only this year, but probably the next 6 of them due to your declaration - nice goin'

Re the fantasy range GFS solution above. you know, there are two types of fantasy. Those that don't look even physically very plausible - if physically not impossible. Then there are those that look physically plausible - because they are both physically possible, but fit some sort of back ground (non-linearity) about the flow behaviors. This is like pattern zeitgeist ? It fits the spirit of the times. That solution above does. We keep repeating these +PNA foot prints, perhaps masked at times. Anyway, we've seen this sort of turn out mid latitude snow or snow supportive synoptic modes some half of the Octobers since 2000 - as an aside ... prior to that approximate yesteryear, much rarer was that ever the case. Something switched around then to make October 10 - TG holiday span more prone to this - we all know what that is so won't get into it. This is part and parcel why I feel our best odds at expressing winter being a front loaded one. There's background tendencies to fire off blocking early ...and this fits that leitmotif as discussed, as a possible harbinger of a proficient blocking autumn into early winter. That's not me trying to sell November/December 1995, either. Really just what it says... our best odds at expressing winter - perhaps at all. I don't have faith in winters anymore, as being sort of Currier&Ives nostalgic reduxing, due to this gradient saturation issue. It's hard to block during the DJF period, when the gradient becomes seasonally extreme, because in more basic physical sense, fast flow does not go around short(er) curved surfaces if the flow exceeds the critical velocity threshold - it can't because the centrifugal acceleration exceeds the Coriolis and that opens it back up... that basic physical premise has become a delimiter during recent (decades) of winter, with increasing tendencies. 2015 was unique ... as an afterthought. That was resonance at a huge scale. The entire WPO-EPO-N/A arc was in on it, and so... such large spatial domain doesn't have short radial geometry - the flow can remain fast around a -WPO/-EPO loading pattern that way.

This is interesting from the MJO desk/CPC "...support for the formation of a Central American Gyre (CAG) event during October." Just inferring from hemispheric mode one would guess CAG vulnerability - wasn't looking but a corroboration from the MJO folk adds to that. Notable risks are TC's. Opal and I suspect Sandy ( just for examples) were born out of CAG gyres, just to name a couple.

I'd add to this discussion that these indices are also increasingly non-resonant. Meaning, they are less (apparently...) physically forced into a quasi-stable mode. The reason for that is related to the increased winter time gradient in the whole sale integral of the subtropical to Ferril latitude band. Faster basal flow velocities sends the Roulette wheel spinning more frequently - metaphor.

You have to consider the total geology of Earth in the model/differences comparing the two oceanic basins. The NE Pacific arc is blocked off from the arctic by Alaska and the continental rise - identified by Aleutian archipelago of islands. The arctic waters are prevented from intermingling. Additionally, the NW Pacific blocks the arctic due to NE Siberia. There is a gap between, but it is very shallow - the Bering Straight. In fact, ...over the last ice advance cycle of the greater Pleistocene epoch, it is theorized that the ocean levels, having fallen crucial distance, exposed a 'land bridge' that assisted animal migrations between Asia and North America. Many ancient native America human populations are believed to have arrived via the land bridge route during these lower oceanic level time spans.. Anyway, that sub-surface geology blocks the Pacific from establishing an "AMOC" of its own. Compared to the N Atlantic Basin, where deep oceanic floor abruptly abuts the Greenland landmass. Very cold water due to intermingling with the Arctic happens there, where it really can't happen in the far N Pacific Basin. The cold water is heavy ... it falls to the bottom of the ocean - organized in 'chimneys', these tubes of very cold water plummet to the ocean floor. The falling motion pulls the surface water into replace, due to conservation of mass; and since their is less obstacle to fluid flow, S, that encourages a surface motion that is preferential from the Equator toward the N. The ongoing pattern of wind stress and Coriolis then organizes the large scaled anti-cyclonic motion of the Basin. The Gulf Stream and the Japan currents of either Basin are artifacts of the same wind stressing and Coriolis balancing, but the Atlantic has this AMOC machinery that the Pacific does not. Because of all this... the Pacific distribution of upper oceanic heat content is shallower, thus .. can be thermally modulated faster. Might be a little counter-intuitive when knowing that the Pacific is larger than the Atlantic by a several factors of total mass and surface area, but AMOC has a vastly deeper Z-coordinate in the total integral.

Keep in mind… We’re getting towards the time of the year where above normal may not necessarily be “warm” in the sensible weather. This relativity is especially true when you get towards Halloween. As an aside, the first week of October may have some exceptionally anomalies, but we’ll see… Also +.01 is above normal That chart doesn’t mean you’re gonna roast because it’s extra dark red

They're definitely doing more ... just by virtue of acknowledging the problems. They're also - from appearance alone ...granted - solving the problems they can solve more easily, first. I perfectly valid longer term stratagem. But is a strategy nonetheless. Contrasting, America has turned their faces toward the wrong side of history ( science, much less objective reality - ) in their - apparent - seeking of comfort. It's really a populist movement based on a combination of fear and anger: two of Satan's favorite weapons against humanity ... ha ('not religious; that's just dark humor) It's not even climate that causes them pain. It was the other aspects of pure humanism that sent this spiraling decay of responsibility. It's a quirk in history that it conflicts with the climate doom awareness. If the Libs didn't yank WOKEism into something that's clearly biologically unsound ... and start Karenizing hard-ons and ruining lives, and even pushing that agenda into formal legislation .. they would not have marginalized huge voting block populations to the point of anger. That's why we're in a veritable teetering with a fascist overthrow - which in itself is fantastically being ignored. This whole morass blocks any agenda having to do with climate consideration in America, because, of the two, Climate does not appeal as the real danger to every days. They other stuff does. I just want to say something here in capital, embolden letters to signify that yes ... I am yelling at at these consummate dumb mother fuckers walking the earth among those that are trying to spare in the wrath of man's idiocy. Temperature rises associated with climate change does not cause species extinction, TEMPERATURE RISE HAPPENING !FASTER! THAN SPECIES CAN ADAPT is causing the problem Lol... just so we're clear. There really seems to be a huge variance in intellectual capacity. I used to think this was a moral problem. Like the "wont' happen in my life time" wasn't bad enough, right? Yeah there's that sentiment going on out there but ... mmm, that's not it. There's a problem with capacitance in multi-disciplinary, multi-dimensional comprehension. Lot of long words to just simply say, simpletons, which unfortunately are greater than 50% of the population density, just can't understand much of this. It would be okay if that was the only problem ... sort of. I mean at least morally. But the problem is, they are dumb fucks that instead of learning, choose the easy road of toeing the line with likes of which have 0 qualifications for rendering advice and truth on the matter; unwittingly and without conditional objective analysis, aligning with with both moronic and immoral leaders. This is not very likely to end well.