Typhoon Tip

It may be that we've been "playing with fire" ( n'yuk n'yuk ) in having missed this kind of multi-day integrated heat type. I mean seriously.

well... "heat" is typical in summer - or supposed to be... heh. We've had some summers that were little torpid in that regard - certainly with respect and comparison to CC and the world. I mean it's been warmer than normal? it has.. no question. But we ware lagging ( or been so - ) over the rest of the world for bigger heat event frequency. As others et al have noted and we've discussed, we've accrued much of our CC through nocturnal/low temperatures. Otherwise, as Scott and Brian and I have explained, there's too many ways to discretely interfere with temp rising. Subtle. I mean discrete when using that word, because it is not always very obvious ... We can look identical in the entry to Des Moines IA, yet they're 104 while we're 95...etc.. For that, which is fairly objective ... a result like what this looks like ( currently ) it's capable of achieving, would have to be considered atypically hot. But there's also a couple of facets simultaneously true. Those numbers I described, by scalar AND their implication when combined, are both above normal, but also above "normal heat waves". Any heat wave here is an anomaly... but f we were to say a 90/90/90 three days is 1 standard deviation, this is well above a single Standard Deviation if it goes on that way

Thanks Brain yeah... was just analyzing the grid. If this were not the case ^ than something is seriously wrong with the technology heh

Idiosyncratic notables about this NAM output continue... 6 consecutive periods of at or > 580 dm thickness. Usually even the hottest synoptics tickle 580 around 21z each afternoon and we settle back 576... But this is hanging around at that ungodly height. Trust me...I've paid close attention to these gridded guidance numbers for long years. Tomorrow's no picnic, either. 31C max at Logan is probably a 35 C walking down Cambridge Ave or out over the parking lots of of Natick. HFD and Lowell are cooking.

The 12z NAM grid's fully on board. ..whether this shows up in the machine interpolations or not, notwithstanding... but this is about as hot as I've ever seen these numbers. BOS and LGA Thursday, left to right: 5400051 31 19 -1292 11 25 11 82 34 26 19 5400048 28 12 -3294 142310 82 34 26 20 6000054 39 34 -5891 10 24 16 83 34 27 18 6000047 32 20 -0993 132513 83 35 27 20 Left to right these number illustrate a pure sear scenario. Man and I mean it! 31 and 19% is bone dry sky. Open blue, 100% undiluted solar dump in. So is 39 and 34% at 00z Friday ( bottom row). That's BOS (Logan). Likewise, LGA (Laguardia) is no different. That's the sky coverage... The next digits moving right correspond to wind direction, and speed. 24 and 25 represent 240 and 250 deg, respectively, which average WSW, at 11 to 16 kts LGA, 280 and 320 is WNW, which is idealized actually ...and given to the fact that both locations are identical synoptic constraints, these are also mutable. Call it a west wind at both for now. 0 oceanic influence. The 82 and 83 corresponds to 582 and 583 hydrostatic heights ( referred to as 'thickness'). Anything over 572 is getting into a very warm column distinction. Obviously ... raising this number means integrating more and more water into the column and in order to do that, requires heat. So, clearing 580 is both exceptional rare around our latitude, but also rare for our geological limitations. I'm starting to feel this is our best synergistic heat performance we've seen since the phenom was recently codified. The rest of the numbers, "34 26 19" (BOS, left) is 18z, are deg C. 34 C, left, is at the 980 mb level. Which is very rare, because the actual 2 meter by convention is typically a minimum of 3C above this number in a well mixed adiabatic environment. 4 or even 5 C is not out of the question given to the fact that the total combination of synoptic parametrics are really quite spectacular when taken holistically ( this is part of the synergy consideration). So... in simple terms, a 38 or even 39 C over a the urban sprawl of metro-west of Boston towns is quite doable. Now ... the NAM is the NAM is the NAM... there's that. It also can sometimes go large in heat in the 48+ hour range...then settle back on newer runs. The other 12z guidance is probably rolling out now.

87/66 Kind of a threshold combo. Just starting to feel it.

Yeah I was just going add .. I bet they're just as abysmal as any along coastal land/sea contention. But that's part of the whole "local gradient" thing. As always ... resolution resolution resolution

What goes up … must come down I suppose https://www.instagram.com/reel/DaMVGHzxElA/?igsh=ajBta25tb29sYmtu

ICON had it running into Sunday now... 94 to 98

I saw that. NBM is heavily used by NWS per AFD omission. Is there a verification page or ?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ looping that ... it may also evap a little when it poors over the ridge lines. I guess that times about 2 pm, so the damage may be done S-E of HFD-MHT for temp wrt to cloud troubles. Have to see on that too - Heat's like this... it's a tedious ferreting to find the way it's going to fail.

Good catch! That might explain the Euro's being a little blunted. DP handling and timing is going to be factor-able.

Today might be an interesting test as we head into this anomaly scenario. As an entrance/threshold cross ... the most guidance stall T rises to the 87-89 range, but there are a couple ...such as the GFS, have 90-92. The test may only mean how well the guidance 2-m products ( which I hate anyway - ) are going to handle. But it "might" also be some sort of non-Markovian suggestion of how well we are environmentally materializing the virtual modeling. interesting.. It's complex though. It could also be micro-physical processes that more or less alter responsiveness ... It matters if we're at the ceiling and scratching to lift.

Yeah I followed that up ..it may have 68 to 70F in that range now that I think back a little harder.

It may have actually been 70 F but yeah.

I recall back in my UML days ... 72 F(~21 C) on the rock pile was a useful metric/threshold for hundo at Logan in WNW classic transport heat scenarios. Not sure if this true over all and SW flow types, but I don't see why not ... provided any south coastal oceanic contamination doesn't take place. Preferable to keep the winds less backed that 240 deg (260 down near Scott...) etc

Analyzed everything from the 00z GFS/Euro/Canadian. En masse/holistically the Wed-Sat heat wave was modestly more intense by potential 1-3 F max (which situates higher nocturnals) than the previous two or three model cycles. Emphasis on 'modest'. Because none of these model run/analysis going back several days at this point have deviated significantly from a general motif of being near or at upper bound heat event, it's unlikely to register as much of a sensible human difference. 97 or 101, you're not feeling that change particularly if the DP varies by some ( HI's may vary). Extremist was GFS at 101/102's common from D.C. to Metro West Boston. Contrasting upper 90s from the GGEM. Euro's low balling Wednesday I feel ...otherwise might be a decent compromise. Hard to really pick one over the other. I don't see many limiting factors on this 00z cycle, across the board. All three have off-shore light winds under 21 to 23C 850s, with 300, 500, and 700 sigma level RH fields well below materialized cloud numbers ( ~60%), implying ample solar. The only thing we're missing here is truer longevity, where it cycles between an interim relaxation followed by resurge over a 7 to 10 day memory maker. That could materialize in future guidance, but for now ... the index floor doesn't appear to be as favorable for that. However, there are no huge cooler corrections signaled, either. The indices are more neutral - keeping in mind that they are less useful in summer. And the Euro and GFS have typical autumn troughs erroneously over Hudson Bay... which are not mass-field supported, nor demoing any continuity, run to run. The heights locally stay in the 582 dm range, either way, which connects to climo as AOA Impressive heat wave as is. Seldom do I recall - if ever - two days back to back on MEX with 101 at KFIT. This event has some bulk. Usually we're 94 for 4 days with one day to 99 typology. Not sure what our climatological "normal"/seasonal heat wave is but I know we don't typically succeed 100 two days running save for some rare historical events. We'll see where this lays out.

It's probably meaningless of course but ... see the whack Euro at the end of that run? wtf chuck. 600+ ridge with a 582 bone chilling trough of NE and the OV. we've been up near 100 deg at 582 hgts.

This is why I wanna create a kind of integrated heat content, heat wave calculation/index, so that these things can be physically ranked instead of hyperbolically so - Having said that, I'm not sure “worst in history” is wrong though? France broke all-time temperature records since the invention of the thermometer came to that region, not one day ...but on consecutive days no less. Why is that wrong? Seems "worst in history" is just about precisely what that was - no hyperbole.

Here it was ... I guess it was mid month, altho I recall a wondering earlier because of the 'cadence' of hemispheric behavior. At the time, the modeling didn't go as far as July 1 but it's one of those extrapolation deals. Anyway, I recall now it was based purely at the time on the numerical teleconnector spreads from the various source, less so the spatial synoptic chart cinemas. In fact, I recall commenting on it since then how there was a discrepancy - it's interesting to me that the indices "won" this discovery at a very long lead. The operational runs were in fact fighting this as near as 7 days ago, however ... that's not really necessarily unreasonable given it was still 7-10 days away at that later time. But they were really just not interested. GFS was first to come around.

Actually .. not disputing this at all but I did notice the EPS sending signals for back when it was over 300 hours. I posted about it around June 11th or so... I'll try to find it

DPs over IL/IN/MI 75 to 80 55-60 locally. That air mass out there is heading this way. I don't know how exactly how it's mass entangles with the Lakes and then tumbles over terrain for us... but I could see there being some convection on the leading rim of that as it nears.

In fact, El Nino summers tend to be cooler ... ? in 2023, some form of Nino was forecast to onset that summer, the whole planet jumped a half click C ( as poorly recognized geological event) before said El Nino arrived. Yet to this day, I still hear the blame. Wrong epistemic/chronological direction. I think though that people toss around conjecture as though it were more substantive than it is. Some are doing it because that's just how people are in groups. Others because they're divisive. Welcome to the human species. LOL

Mm folks in here are getting annoyed by rhetoric. I say tough cookies. One cannot be a verbal fascist. People are going to be artful with their speech when they are attempting ( if not necessarily, just because they are human beings ) to emphasize the significance of whatever it is they're trying to convey. I also get the hunch that some of these same individuals would incline toward less hurt feelings on Jan 20 whenever the models are sending 30" snow total clown maps rollin' up the eastern seaboard. Noted for future analysis. Beside, by geometric comparison, damnable descriptions like heat dome is what that is. It's a ridge that is made larger by non-Markovian feedback of thermal aggregation. SO it is in fact an exceptionally good and on-point metaphor. That said, though I do not read this person's mind, if by "super-charged" he means synergistic resonance?, he's spot on. Unfortunately for the word Karens, it fits the grammatically definition of what supercharged fucking means. It means taking a result, and adding to it. Which is what a synergistic heat waves inherently do.

Wow day 1: Wednesday ... NAM's new grid numbers from 12z for BOS, 18z 54000574750 -0493 10 26 09 80 32 24 18 60000655534 -0493 112612 80302518 32 C is 980 mb at Logan's sigma, which given a sfc pressure is closer to 1015 or so, the actual sfc 2-m is probably closer to 37 C ( (72 - 7.2) + 32 = 96.x not bad considering this conceptually/validly results higher than the machine MET for couple of cycles now. Haven't seen the 12z MET but we'll see. In the past the MOS has been too cool when that's observed. 850 mb T ~ 21 or 22C here ( 24+18) = 41/2 assuming equal mixing but I suspect the slope isn't linear. The above 24 C bulging skyward... probably expanding through the mid point so it's likely closer to 22 or so at 850. This appears to match the objective guidance illustration ... If so, +22C adiabat supports ~ 36 C 1000 mb T, so as another means to infer the surface ...that doesn't include the 2 C slope to the right during high proficiency heat - which this NAM run's definitely going to be on that day, given those RH field are all 50% or less. Anyway, the NAM's 32 at 980 mb could actually be a tick cool (wrong) in this quasi synergistic potential/holistic synopsis. Bottom line is top heavy with temp on this new run. The 26 conceptually means '260 degrees' ..which pertains to the wind direction - in this case at 2pm. It's blowing straight out of Boston's urban anus right at Logan, and right around fart velocity of that 9 kts. So if actually getting that particular completely idiot to civility location to be a temperature that represents what it's like walking down Cambridge Ave to the Fens, that's about as good an opportunity as you'll find.