Typhoon Tip

yeah, that's a good point. I've come to think based on experience that mlv lapse rate may be our most important metric up here in NE. Maybe orographic forcing offsets some

I will give you this much ... waaaaay back when the dinosaurs ruled there was this model called the ETA. It's the ancient ancestral root of the present era's NAM species.... At every point along a species evolutionary past it had specialized abilities... In completing this metaphor, the ETA of 1995 was a spectacular tool for a very specific lesser known skill: convective initiation. That's basically timing when the convective temperature is reached and if there is any inhibition in the region... it is successfully overcome. We would cross up those metrics and it would say 1:45 pm (say) ...and at 1:38 or 1:57 there it was, the first cell squirting it's load on radar. That was a lot of generations ago and the present day NAM... yeah, there's heredity there, but I don't know if it shares in that same unique ability like it's ancient forefather.

88 ... delta of 40

impressive to see Logan sustaining an 81 on a SE 9 kt wind

are you talking about the front, or the thunderstorm triggering - i suppose you could get that pre frontal quasi dry-line trough thingy in that situation. That would actually be ahead of the better synoptic support - which I would not ever side with the NAM on synoptic timing dude. Just don't ...

It has unfortunately been exposed often enough, times of misguidance wrt to drug and vaccine therapies (regardless of why) that it's naive and ill-advised now to rely on in-office recommendations, out of hand. You instead should nod thoughtfully and tell the physician not at this time. If the they push ... particularly in that sort of situation, then you respectfully decline and tell them that you will be completing some independent research 'like you always do' before arriving to any course of action.

mm far as I can tell it's only the NAM doing that. Wouldn't trust it until more support ... but not impossible, no. I suppose if you really want it to be right so that you can engage and hopefully win another in the varied petty competitions over weather-related statements that goes on in here, there's nothing wrong with relying on it to make Kevin wrong. LOL

83 ... 35 delta

30 F recovery here so far... 48 to 78 It's only 9:30

oh..heh... just realized no one's in here. Geez, better go make sure the Iran-Russian-China axis didn't smuggle a nuke up the Potomac

I wonder if these low wind open sky lasing days over the nearby ocean will elevate the SSTs some

Heh...it's rare to do this once with near/at 0% coverage, but this is the 2nd day, back-to-back, that sat presented this at a regional scale

Looks like the GFS is still just going to ruin Sunday even if it is fed the necessary grid data that would not ruin Sunday lol. The Euro and CMC salvage that day with a cleaner fropa - though couldn't rule out terrain enhanced CB dappled around. As Jerry and I were discussing yesterday, the cold push behind that boundary isn't nearly as impressive. Weak as modeled, taking us back to seasonal as opposed to that 48 F shit. Regardless of the GFS' beady-eyed OCD agenda to destroy mirth on weekend days ... it's own MEX machine numbers are still near 80 from BDL-FIT to ASH-MHT, fwiw We probably have finally graduated to 2026's summer. We'll see what it has in store... After a possible run in with renewed heat middle of next week, there may either be a transient seasonal cool down.. or possibly we evolve a quasi Bahama Blue pattern.

48 was lower than I imagined we would be last night. huh. Considering machine numbers tickle the chode hairs of 90, a 40+ is gonna challenge some delta records for the date.

good line of higher CAPEed convection 21z on Saturday outta do the trick.

Yeah... it's the yellow shit. I think that's pine ?

Anyone that's under a CB negative CAPE is probably getting a 1/2" or more in 20 minutes, tho. Regionally? doesn't look like a soaker for now but there's a couple days

ha... no one is "using" anything. understood - that's not the purpose of the post.

Toasty Euro run

Or at least if/when there are post BDs or N-door boundaries regionally we're going back to 72s instead of 49s yup.

rare satellite image

ICONoclastic model's settin up a blistering heat wave June 9-10-11 ... just like the original non-linear telecon signal had from last week. This is the 12z next Wed ... notice 570+dm with lee side trough? this is 90+ incoming

plus...dogs deliberately seek out and dive slide through garbage ...like dirty diaper and moldy mack and cheese mixed with cigar ash dumpster phage ...

Op ed. I've always thought that was kind of ironic about winter vs summer group psychobabble when comparing the two disparate seasons in this particular social media. Who knows what the real numbers are ...something like 60/40 say of the average bloke preferring winter over summer? Sometimes I suspect it's steeper than that and can launch into a sardonic diatribe how/why. Heh. But what's ironic is that there are fantastic summer events to track - this is after all a weather-related forum ( yeah...right). The obvious response there would be, well ... 60+% don't find summer events very interesting. To that I would suggest the turn around time between events that make winter interesting - at all - is longer than the turn around time in what makes summer interesting. But they do...because when there is hail, or high wind, or flooding rain, or big heat... thread counts balloon just as well. We've had slow summers. Sure. This will undoubtedly trigger arguments from people who myelinate impressions and memories based on something other than objective numbers, but we observe summer-type phenomenon more frequently in summer. More so than we observe events of winter ... in winter. Although lately we can find value in the tongue-in-cheek that winters are turning into four months of autumn. A growing coherency that makes this even more ironic. I guess partly I'm driving at the notion that something else is motivating there. This is anecdotal so don't give one's self any wedgies over it, but I see more CB's on horizons and other fantastic cloud ops, heat in model ranges either home or abroad to the world, about as often as I'm also waiting weeks ...weeks sometimes in winter for anything at all to happen. To me, winter's most successful repeating phenomenon is darkness. Okay. To each is his or her own. One's preference is one's preference. And l do risk sounding hypocritical when I say, ...yeah, I like winter weather phenomenon ...when it happens. Otherwise, I don't forgo my opportunities to track heat ( as an actual meteorological phenomenon, make especially relevant in CC), thunder and CB/cloud formations, a more revealing female population ... Disc Golf, standard Golf, boogie-boarding in the surf. None of which can happen between January 5th and that teleconnector maybe-ims for late month that gets can-kicked to February 17th, and ends up screwing someone for some reason. But at least it's dark by 4pm