Typhoon Tip

I understand the conservative tendency ... I'm inclined to lean that way myself just because - However, it's quite soundly objective to consider that we live in a world with so-dubbed "Synergistic Heat Waves", codified phenomenological event type by ongoing attribution sciences. One such characteristic of which ... the scalar ranges of the max of this type of resonant feed-back anomaly is that they exceed expectations ( typically ...) of either machine or man forecaster. We risk missing this in our region ...due to our "unbelievability" that's part of our heat bias here. We've had some discussion recently over whether that can happen here. I think that's kind of risking a fallacy though. Because it's not a yes or no. Synergy is a quotient. So a partial synergistic kick-back could be in play here - we just are far less likely to incur a Pacific NW, or France sort of large over-performing return values. But "our version" of a synergy, considering that is taking place over top a background that increasingly favors them everywhere, may be 104.

you know .. this reminds me. I really wanna create an index: Integrated Heatwave Energy. It would not have to apply strictly to whether 90 F, then 3-consecutive days. Different discussion. It just borrows the name 'heatwave', but it's intent is to track warm anomaly in general. This could be calculated for any degree(s) over any time(s). And it doesn't have to be just heat. The calculation can end up with negative (cold anomalies). It's not just for show and tell. The index could also be calculated for heat waves in the past and be useful to climate during this era of D(c). Past data is readily available if not reconstruct -able. I'm thinking using hydrostatic heights over time, then combined with the kinetic surface readings. This, because the hydrostats have the water already integrated into the column, so the enthalpy can be derived out of that mass, then added to the kinetic enthalpy of the time based integral in question ( so if it's 99 for 2 hours ...that actually is less thermodynamic total energy than 92 for 10 hours..etc). You could calculate for any time range. Something like that. The energy that's contained can then be used to scale and rank these events. I bet there's been some dewy heat in the past that would rank sneaky high, probably higher even than some kinetic bombs of lore. I've seen it be 95 in May over DPs of 53 several times. It felt pretty damn hot. But 89.5/76 dwarfs that for #of a Hiroshima bombs available to the system. Could calculate that total enthalpy of your time range ( basically a integral of latency + kinetic, over time), then divide it by the Hiroshima yield, and then say ... this was a 100,000,000 Hiroshima event. Although that title might not be totally WOKE ha

Looks like the 00z ( GFS anyway ... ) gave back the petty shaves it was stealing off this signal over those runs. There's still gonna be risks of MCS decay plumes ... or if any wayward linear noctural anything sliding under PF's nuts. Those are built in risks tho. Can't really forecast those until the evidence is obvious

you're gonna need a bigger Thailand sub-forum

Problem with big heat ..particularly nearing the top of physical plausibility ( which this has potential to produce ...) is that we have to think of it as maxing. That means by default it becomes easier to correct downward based upon least excuse imagined than it does to try and push the top thru geophysical limitations. It's true... one wrongly timed cirrostratus this, or the 850 mb hottest pulse ends up at 06z instead of 15z ... these thus become critical as limiting factors. Synergistic heat wave, notwithstanding. Having said that, this could cap out at 95 and bust the mid range hundos, and we'd still verify a heat headline scenario. So it's really a matter of bragging rights whether we make 101 vs "only" ping high 97s out of this. I don't think those 105's were really very realistic - ...or in the least, sufficed it is to say, given what we know of model tech error and biases at D 5-8 range, we'd need to have ti be the next day ( as in 24 to 36 hour lead) before a regional record stroke of that amount is confident.

Heat watches up for 5th period ... ? huh

Looks like the NWS is now getting gated... jeez

word - I'm mostly preaching to the others

yeah, there's a trend here to scale back the heat collapse. We'll have to see on that but ...the 00z Euro was extending matters and now this 12z GFS is definitely backed off the calving S out of eastern Canada look it was previously selling over next weekend.

To be fair, the 'white' region is 'equal chances' which pertains to either above or below normal. I think what trips people up is both the structure of the curves of those, plus the colorization. both inspire warm(cool) depending where the orientations layout. But, that product isn't scalar cold or hot. It's purely a probability. And the below area? that's not overwhelmingly high odds for below, either. So scoring this based purely on probability, that's not really a fail. It's certainly not good. But it's not an F

I wonder what it would take to make a load balanced system capable of bringing on the international constituency

This is looking increasingly more synergistic in nature as the time nears. It’s kind of funny too because just last week or maybe the week before… we were sort of questioning whether this could ever happen here hm Nothing’s happened yet so we’ll see what this looks like over the next couple days of new modeling solutions but… this has inched into a remarkable situation for the time being the strongest signal for >100 degree temps lies in interior river valleys and larger urban areas. Equally concerning is the signal for limited cooling at night mid week. The NBM shows a widespread 60-80% chance for low temperatures above 70 degrees Wednesday to Friday, with a 50-70% chance for lows greater than 75 degrees for much of Southern New England! Seeing signals for extreme heat impacts appear in Heat Risk guidance with widespread Major (3/4) impacts expanding over much of the CWA on Wednesday. By Thursday, several urban areas including Boston and portions of the CT River Valley may see Extreme (4/4) heat impacts. Levels like these are typically reserved for rare and/or long duration heat with little overnight relief.

Compare the Standard Deviations ... Instead of personal bug-up-butts about whether other people have biases or not, why don't we put some sort of math to the test and figure out which anomaly is greater? I dunno. If modeled 100, three days in a row, is a smaller SD than modeled snowing at 6K+ in the west under 560 dm core than okay. I wonder if the anomaly is more so in the heat side of things tho -

Fwiw, the ICON was the first model to commit to the ridge being more E. Rare win ... at anything for that model Here's it's 2-m for Thur mid afternoon

It's a SW ejection, yup. Sonoran or New Mexico, just labeling but by convention this is a SW Heat Release ... you can trace the air mass back and see that. I can see why the Euro has some convection overnight, Wed night, because there's undoubtedly a bit of (thus) EML over top.

was this a Sonoran release ... huh

Jesus, the 850s are 23 to 25C on the Euro too. wtf

So, the Euro has 3 consecutive days of 98-103F from interior NJ to SE NH, Thu-Sat. It's interesting that the GFS goes full tilt on Wed, then backs off from there on out, whereas the Euro maxes later. I dunno. I'm with Brian on those crazier numbers on Wednesday. I see that this synoptically/circumstantially will be quite hot, but I think it plays a bit into the GFS tall BL tendency - maybe giving us a false sort of synergy there. If we're still hitting these number in the guidance tomorrow, we'll see.

Euro hints at nocturnal convection overnight Wednesday ... that'll pube the heat back if that happens but overall, the ridge integral is slightly more massive in totality Wed-Fri. amazing. Friday's just nuts. But again...these 2-m products are heh

I don't recall seeing the MEX be 101 at KFIT over 96 hours away. That's about 20 over climo at range when it's weighted too. 102 at BDL! 98+ ASH/MHT.

This is 105 hours away ... above 80 percentile confidence for a heat wave in general, and here... we're banging 2-meter temperatures like this: Granted, the GFS tends to over mix but... I dunno in the case. Brian, any opinion? From what I am seeing ... the synoptic parametric constraints actually support something extraordinary here. Sorry if that "hyperbole" offends a few self appointed rhetoric police, but it is unfortunately for those officers objectively true. +23-25c 850 W to WNW light d-slope oriented compression flow type < 50% RH at typical ceiling sigma levels during the 12z to 21z interval(s), Wed and Thurs We will have 0 problem mixing probably to the 825 mb level for that matter... A the pure adiabat from a 25c 850 is ~ 40c at 1000mb. 23c is 38 and a half. And these are not continuing the curve into the 2-m right slope where is going to be warmer in that sfc contact layer.

GFS was ticket warmer even (12z) in the complexion of that

#MeToo

All guidance looks smoother and less perturbed... fully committed to a signal almost 2 weeks in the making. Cleanest 500mb ridge cinema yet, one that's also 3 to 5 dm larger in both the x-y plain, and z coordinate integrals in the objective charts. Nice dome, because by geometric definition, that's exactly what a fuckin ridge is - unless you're on the spectrum. Now we can rely on it for communication and clarity, and since 500 mb is the only metric that really counts, there's no cause or reason not to hype the hell out of this sucker weee

Well, yeah that but I was talking about Western Europe a resurgence scenario. That ridge I annotated west of the Iberian Peninsula is in a critical mode/danger of engulfing the region episodically.