Typhoon Tip

In fact ... I can see the nuanced 'hints' in the GEFs individual members, ... and even the operational runs ( like the GGEM) that the period between Boxing day and NYE has a subsume characteristics about it... That's basically when the lower Ferral latitudes and the upper Hadley latitudes are moving cyclonically relative to one another ... That means, the southern stream ejecting features along ...and the N stream is either tending to or outrightly in retrograde. That's precarious for phasing ... The western ends of or in whole, SPV fragments dangling by and by ...in wait, and these lower latitude or intermediate ( doesn't have to be "S sream" per say even) stream disturbances "entice" them to crash south... But they are mechanical juggernauts and when they due they usurp and devour the S wave's dynamics ...using said wave's moisture input and ... BOOM!! There are countless analogs to describe this sort of phase - I'm surprised there isn't phase labels for that matter. Like, we have "Miller A" and "Miller B" and hypothetical M C's and D's therein... There should like American Weather Forums A and 'Forum B, phase types.. lol. Because you can have open wave, two stream phasing that is different than the classic "Cleveland Super Bomb", or "Feb 1978" - that year was an absolutely fantastic year for subsume type phasing... The 12z GGEM is missing the southern component to the above model, else it would be a classic... where's as the GFS seems to conserve the speed of the flow by staggering an N stream backside insert at an usual trajectory .. Obviously, these are all subject and highly likely to change...just that when the background canvas looks vulnerable, the operational concept darts tend to hit more targets -

Yup ..it's pretty clear this is the next major player/signal to watch for ... roughtly 26th thru NYE ... Much too early to thread it out there, but this signal has been pretty obvious as a PNA rise, ... "pulsed" west base NAO tandem for about 4 of 5 days frankly. I suppose in the conceptual sense, the lakes cutter and warm sector intrusion has the climate history of preceding the NAO ... transient or more ...as a leading phenomenon to the mode transition toward negative...then if the PNA does roll up underneath ... usually eastern N/A's mid latitudes wind up in business for cold storminess - Back in the day, I would have started a thread for this given the signal as is.. .but, it seems there is a general culture to wait things out more -

Mm... I'd say that belies the extremeness of that set up though - not saying you're intending to do so...so take it the right way. I'm just sayin', those sort of synoptic "upside down" transient ordeals taking place in highly meridion amplitude, ..yeah, sure - but it is the scale and degree of the dipole its self that is whack here - Thing is, ...the models are not going to show something that is "physically impossible" - I mean... forecasters in AFDs may float that sentiment in passing here and there, but they are more droll when they do. Truth be told, if the models ever did that ... they wouldn't be a very effective/trustworthy tools for representation of geophysical process - could they? no - It's really a matter of whether the perfect parametric management can be maintained in time, without permutation, to allow the "ceiling" scenario to actually play out - In this case, having 63 F at BED MA, while it is 22 F at ALB - is about at the threshold of what can set up at this lat / lon, on Earth ! ...and being 6 days away, that's a lot of time to succeed without said anything getting involved that will hose that set up...

'Course... there's the other school of thinking that dramatic variances are favored ...and verifying world -over at increasingly alarming frequency so ... perhaps going from 62 to 27 in 20 minutes is just our region doing going through a version of the new course in climate

I would really rather not enable the grousers by offering any kind of commiserate philosophy ... buuuut, yeah - I do see that 'positive' tilt ( code for shearing - ) tendency as having more plausibility as a correction in present era. Some of us ( Will and myself....etc) have been back and forth on this the last several days ... how the background long term trend leading, doesn't support these sort of hugely meridianal ( N/S) structured, multi-stream phased scenarios so well... Paraphrasing...fast flows don't lend to curved trajectories - the wind obeys the same laws of centrifugal forces, and the faster the flow ..the more the "circles" open up - it's just like trying to zip around an off ramp at 80 mph... you'll likely leave said off-ramp tangent to the curve ..lol. Anyway, there's like a magic threshold of wind "in stream" velocity, relative to the curved surface, and if the wind needs to mathematically exceed that restriction the models will open up troughs... In this case, it looks - conceptually - like the models are right at that threshold.. And seeing some hints by these higher resolution runs already that are trying to do so, "might" just be an indication that the Global -scaled models are just not close enough to the system where their resolution can "see" that limitation - ... interesting stuff if one has no life hahahaha... So I'm not completely sold on a v-cut tuxedo trough in the nation's Lakes longitude that dips to the Gulf where there is a bulb of -3 SD hgt anomaly dangling, then rising up to tip over Baffin Island at exit just yet, when the wind going around it is so at an anomalously high velocity - It's funny ... folks see a D 7 cyclogenesis that is hugely perfect and there is all kind of neg-head banter which is fear-bargaining psycho-babble posts miring the mood down... Or, you get this D 7 type of construct and everyone's convinced it is going to happen ... affectedly miring the mood down ? got it! no win engagement in here... Sounds a bit like a persecution complex if you ask me - lol ...

I see the 'support group' is in full-affect this morning, huh - lol... Jesus, still seven days away and why is this iron clad, immutable again ...? no other choice, right ?? Sometimes it really is hard to ignore that this "hobby" has evolved to be less about storms and events themselves, and more so about the modeled cinema leading. I'm almost willing to hunch that the storm itself is less important to some even ... rather, trying to make sure the cinema's story in the days leading doesn't send you through disappointing chapters. Ah... I guess a story isn't any good without a protagonist, huh ? lol - I'm intrigued by a signal nearing New Years -

I realize you really just wanted to set up the "Looks like shit" repeater joke in this post/reply of yours.. but, just for "shits" and giggles - I think what he/she was after ( though perhaps lacks the confidence to advance ? ) is that high in the Atlantic or not, if that trough exerts any more E than New England could just as well end up on the W side of that baroclinic wall - even if by small amount would be different ball game.. Just sayn'

Three coherent patterns on tonight’s 00z GFS destructive wave interference so nothing fun happens —> construct wave interference so something unfun happens —> destructive wave interference so nothing fun happens .... 0 redeeming value ... really rather remarkable as an achievement lol

Icon heh

Good insights/points - If I may add another ? 3) yesterday featured vortex splitting - the dome of cold air was too deep and cold/viscus, and as the deep layer trough approached it, the mid level support severed glided over top and created the mega CSI/ 'quasi' CSI band up N. Meanwhile the vestigial 700 mb wind max and associated vortex broke away ...moving along SE of ISP... You could see two distinct inflow rad reflectivity zones, with typical arced banded features... one moving from the Berks into the Monad's and White's ..a second one W of the Island and S of New Bedford ... both these features coalesced into solid shields - the total of which abandoned lift in that axis between. I'm actually wondering how much dry air really was culpable in that barrier jet ... as it was snowing very high and hard and the jet was coming from that saturated vicinity ...that muddies the picture a bit. The dry undercut is a real phenomenon though - I've seen. I think it was Feb 1997 ... there was a "Miller D" .. .the old 'hook and latter' play where a low bombs and moves NW from SE of CC... There had been a bit of talk about a deep low in the days preceding, but as it was coming into short range, the 48 and 60 hour window ..most models had it too far gone to be an impact... But, that morning it comes "storming" back. I recall the then ETA ( which would later become the NAM/WARF ...not sure what happened to that warf idea ) anyway.. spits out 1.8" of liquid equiv at Logan out of nowhere, "whaaaa" NWS is scrambling to get blizzard warnings up for SE zones, with WSW for Middlesex/Essex/Suffolk/ and SE NH zones... What happens? 6-10" over SE zone and nice low snow content, but high wind very cold nasty blizzard criteria is met, but we got .5" in SE NH and the Merrimack Valley and nothing west of there... I remember, while the late afternoon blizzard raged in Brockton Mass, the sky lit up in this orange fire sunset blaze and these undulatory bulbs of cloud and snow plumes were illuminated in a spectacular visage I haven't really seen the likes of which since... The DP was 9 while that was happening... Despite the upside ocean of virga waves of snow in the sideways lit sunset sky raging above, it could not saturate that lower column enough and that warning busted around the N-NW edges of the warning package.

18z ? ..yeah, it did in the 500 mb evolution. In fact, ..I'd say that trough is already a goodly bit deep enough to offer an open-wave NJ model deepener to skirt by underneath ... blah blah, but, we're just not seeing the surface in step there. No development - why? I suspect the early little overnight feature into the wee hours of Monday early morning is not helping. It's sweeping a column that is struggling to recoup dynamics as it is, ...out of the area, and I think the better amplitude we are seeing in that solution is just running on empty - so to speak... I wouldn't bother mentioning end framed NAM charts at all ...if it were not for the antecedent discussion/reasoning .. but, mainly, the EPS mean has a pretty deep trough suggestive of negative tilt passing off the upper MA now too for that later Monday -Tuesday time frame, and has a huge 24-hr trend toward something deepening pretty significantly somewhere between Cape Cod and NS.... The isobars opening up toward the New England coast "sometimes" indicates there is member spread back west, too - ... interesting... Right now, I think Will's original idea of a near miss/wider righter is probably the way to go .. but just keep and eye on it.. I still think it prudent to watch how these features get sampled coming off the Pac later tonight in the 00z run ...then 12z - respectively, the S stream injects first on the 00z grids, then 12z follows up with staggard N/stream tube of wind max and I just have a weird feeling that N/stream may calve backward against the hgt contouring as it is diving S ... near or W of Chicago ... I mean it's already done that a little, it's a matter of how much more (or less..).

Yeah..it's been doing that with the last several cycles, that handling downstream/ N Atlantic ... I mentioned it to Will earlier - . You know, there is a climatology on Lakes cutters preceding transient NAO blocks over the D. Straight ..which makes sense as any vertically stacked bomb heading toward James Bay will tend to wrap a planetary wave decay into those higher latitudes up there... viola! Heights blossom for at least a while until it all disperses. But in this case, the GFS is trying to establish an actual R-wave redistribution out of it. Not sure - ... could be that it's just magnifying that - it's like the physics are the edge of the visible plain makes the moon look scary huge coming over the horizon - somethin' like that...we'll see. The GEFs do not represent that NAO handling in their mean/tele's last night or the previous night. Now, ...doesn't mean this isn't going to happen. Sometimes the higher res/normalized versions will precede the ensemble mean ... and then the latter catches on. It's a phenomenon more likely witnessed when there is cross-guidance, operational agreement. The ensemble means et al then gather around the operational consensus ...sort of in reverse order. I don't have any idea what the Euro and GGEM and UKMET are doing with the NAO domain, tho...

Don't get me started again ...

Yeah, I added that right after/edited - had forgotten 2002 ..

A bit of preoccupation for XMas when there's other things in the foreground to consider - I don't think it's even snow on the ground for those grousing - it's really about 'feeling' sad about anything that doesn't resemble a Curry&Ives setting out of window for Wassailers on Xmas eve, 'nogs and hot totties and cinnabuns on Xmas morning ... just has to have snow globe aggregates and icicles. Like those scenes in "Funny Farm", with Chevy Chase and Madolyn Smith ... Firstly, that's about 5% yearly return rate on that when considering the 30-yr climate aggregate... Out of the last 20 years, 1 Xmas timed that... 2017.. when we registered 6"10" and not even ubiquitously - I think it was too warm for that in Boston and SE zones... Maybe 2002 - I dunno I wonder why/how folks became so conditioned to where they feel sort of 'cheated' or 'violated' if/when the Rockwell setting fails to set in due timing... 2/3rds of all Xmas' I've lived through in my tenure on the planet at this latitude, between the Great Lakes and New England ...failed to put snow in the air, and on the ground with 27 F rosy cheeked Wassail weather. Interesting... In fact, it's actually cheating the Dr. Dew types to go the other way - NAM's pretty bad as a guidance - to put it droll - beyond 36 hours ... we all know that - but, it's ending frames did tend the mid levels toward a steeper correction for the 22nd. Again... cannot stress enough, ..these flat fast flows off the Pacific ...when the underlying PNA is +.25 and trying to rise... tends to later corrections, and we're seeing this in the Euro through 18z yesterday/overnight ...I think these next 24 hours in particular are an interval to watch as we are nosing these waves off the Pac and into the denser physically realized sondes

Yeah, I was a bit nonplussed that they'd pull the trigger on a new technology solution during that storm yesterday ... that's an odd operations call if you ask me. I haven't delved into that new product, but I don't like it for PC so far... We'll see when the weather turns active again how it performs. I don't know if perhaps that is intended to be easier/boot-strap -able for remote tech. It's clear the technology is increasingly adaptive to a phone and portable -device world. It may be the case,.. I am noticing that as these new variance GUIs emerge, their compatibility with PCs .. you can tell there is a silent incompatibility ... The usage is quirky if not awkward ...sometimes lags and gaps in web-based rendering... etc... We're going to bottle neck technology and humanity intelligentsia I'm afraid along with it... such that when the Carrington Event strikes, it makes sure it is whole scale, swift and particularly holocaustic - ...

I'm not even finger's crossed for that ... More like considering that as a real correcting need. I've stated my case a few pages ago/yesterday - quickly again... the longer term atmospheric tendency toward progression and speed, does not lend to a slowing down, full-latitude continental breadth, curved flow structures - That's the base-line contention. Yeah, I guess ... persistence is like the Law - it doesn't work in extreme situations. That's code for admitting it could still happen - saying correction possibility means the meridional amplitude variation is still on the table. Beyond that.. .there are other clues, like ..the PNA from the GEFs is neutral-positive, not positive. That's a subtlety in the interpretive usage that also does not really support huge N/S curvilinear loading. The signal there is to maintains a west to east correction tendency ( or vector ). You know... we put down a band of historic snow yesterday, but the important and (perhaps scary if we wan't to get into it) one is, pun on purpose, 'under the radar'. 30+ " of snow over that vast an area was verified in 12 hours! It is not just the d(Q)/dt, it is the * mass! That's got to be some kind silent record, if not damn close. Lot of storms of lore and yore put down hip height snow, but to do so at that speed and short duration ...over the state of Nebraska.. That said ?? We're not getting out of a warm sector...It's a matter of weather it's rotted polar air that is of the 52/38 variety, or as you say 54/53 S windy white noise through barren tree tops in strata streeted misty rains... I give it 50/50 shot of either version. I don't think said persistence is related to the pattern in situ, as it has been a multi-modal, multi-seasonal/decadal thing at this point... It's persisted through Ninas and Ninos and -AO and +AOs and EPOs of both ilk and NAO too... and is caused by a separate issue altogether - but don't have to broach what that is, just knowing that it's likely to at least factor, probably should give an extra consideration to persistence in this case. As a quick afterthought ... one could wonder fairly if a bigger meridian structured ordeal would also just gestate in and out of existence quicker, too - ultimately limiting the time spend in the car wash - How about the extended GFS though - man...that 00z guidance loaded the last 7 days of that run with sweet pulsing -3 SD west base NAO ...that's the way you want NAO, pulsing!

that’s likely good enough with marginality working with sufficient dynamics but are the 500 Millo bar charts available for that?

It is ... but it was similar to the 06z GFS it’s not like it’s unprecedented over recent guidance cycles And recent pattern behavior, and other signals suggest that should watched. Just sucks because we’re in this flat P nap neutral positive PNA that’s really fast so really subtle nuanced variances in the momentum coming off the PAC can mean a quick hitting thing or nothing at all blah blah

We do ? we've been talking about it for days ... I know I know..

Or is right at the threshold and can't get any more indicative or it has to - it's really right on the edge --.. I'd say if we can grab a hold of those isopses leaving the MA out over the open Atlantic and get 'em into 'bent' configuration (while of course conserving the appeal of those two precarious phasers- even a little on the next run ) we're probably headed for something

Ok, ...wee bit embarrassed - where are y'all seeing the 18z Euro ?

Yeah...I fear coming off as an optimism bunny lately but unfortunately ...we are in a mode where that sort of look is not really fitting with the longer term/persistent progressive nature to the hemisphere. That fast nature is both multi modal but also multi seasonal and goes back systemically for years at this point.. I don't "think" it yields just in time to allow that deep full latitude curvi-linear flow structure that moves the N-S length of the continental middle latitudes ... But, anomalies nested inside anomalies ... do take place from time to time. That just means... fast flow, then it slows for transiently, the back to fast flow - that transient slow down becomes an anomaly relative to the longer termed signal ... Sparing a long sermon - it I think a flatter variation of that is favored by said persistence and also.. the because implicit teleconnector, PNA, is neutral positive from the GEFs... Haven't seen the EPS PNA derivatives but (GEFs PNA + said persistence)/2 = something less dramatically deep and wound up ... We could cut, but it would be a flatter trajectory and not likely foisting a misty DP anomaly and southerly gale with it... More likely sharp c-fropa type ... I would look for that as the more plausible correction for now. However, before even getting there ... if the 22nd (~) system were to get more intriguing it's probably have a transitive influence on whatever happens next ..so, it's all fluid at that moment.

The EPS was 3 to 5 dec deeper with the 120 hour axis nearing the MA Tuesday and a tick more aggressive with a GOM surface response- ... Very fast flow and we are not sampling all the material players over the open Pac quite ideally just yet.. But will be in cycles over the next 36 hours, particularly into Saturday... 22nd may be a late correction owing to these wave spaces ejecting off the Pac inside of a only 2,K naut mi width of mid latitude degrees at unusual pacing .. traversing the country at ludicrous speeds.. This is a candidate to do a three cycle correction abruptly toward a neg tilted but open, quick cyclogen ... NJ model lowl... Or, we could wavering flatter by the night runs Saturday into Sunday. For now as Will mentioned, we are sort of wondering about the S stream as a seeder wave serving to place hold/time right with that N/stream fisting southeast out of the Lakes to maybe subsume. But, it's also possible that just like this wave in the MV today, that served as today's 'kicker'/damper, also started calving backward a bit against the flow and digging ...the N/stream may follow the same behavior. It's already a potent jet... Then we don't need to phase/subsume as much because the N stream my yank the atmosphere around on it's own as a correction too - Lot can modulate between now and Sunday's runs -