Typhoon Tip

Lol ... I kept that brief, too On a PC that's not much - these phone make things seem a lot longer

As this mid to late week has come into a mid range, the previous synopsis of a full latitude trough has apparently succumb to a fast N/stream top heavy flow, and said trough in all guidance has now bifurcated. Complex evolution involving the residual southern stream then rides up into a nascent/model introduced cold insert to 40 N This has sheared the N/ counterpart E across southern Canada and escaping thru the Maritime toward week's end... The back side of this is concomitantly NVA and depending on guidance ...stream confluence is noted. But all guidance now also roll nascent/materializing +PP across Ontario in this wake. That 'growth' in this anticyclone ( I suspect ..) is insidiously important as it likely imposes a bit of cold bust potential due to acceleration of tuck/barrier jet flow/ orientation therein, as the vestigial S aspect of said sheared trough is then rising up the semi-permanent SW Atlan ridge..This feature will pose an overrunning risk as it will ( undoubtedly..) be toting along a respectable theta-e mass ...and due to the morphology of it running up into a confluence, it will 'stretch' in the x-coordinate ... this can manifest in a light to moderate longer duration cold rain/mix/snow ( S-->N) event, or perhaps split into multi wave/pulse even spanng 24 to 36 hours .. This is all speculative due to the fact that although these visions are barrowed from climo and experience... the offending tropospheric wave features are just nosing into the denser more physically realized sonde array this evening an overnight... Seems to be a recurring concern as of late, doesn't it. Prelim slated for refining: - Right now I would say light to moderate event by our storm-climate standards. - I would also correct the GFS 2-m temps down 3-5F N of the boundary ...and don't be afraid to imagine 15 or even 20F temp compression along 10 miles of frontal position in a situation like this. - Appears to me to be 70 or % for advisory ice/snow in CNE with low probability for warning ... 50% for these down as far as mid CT/NW RI, but these headlines probably get headachy due to ice S vs a mix of mangled bullet and snow N.

it might almost be worse than that, in the operational 00z/12z blend of those two cycles ... yeesh. I mean, cutters tend to have back side upslopeCAA tho.. cold advection instability squalls .. It's just maddening to the enthusiast that they have to scrape by on that in wait of the rollout and next warm intrusion. What the Euro is doing reminds me of December 2006 frankly - getting dated at 14 years ago... but that was the year that was in danger of going down as a like an unworldly statistical warm outlier freak winter. I don't think I even saw a snow flurry prior to January 10 that year... It was a weirdly Pacific dominated flow so violently extreme that +30 850 mb temperatures washed over the Canadian shield at times/in plumes and the places like Tower MN failed to registery a 32 F before Xmas... I remember as the satire publication, "The Onion" remarked about the dangerous perils of the punishing Great Lakes winter in defiant mockery over 52 F frostbite sarcasm - ... it was surreal. I don't know... I'm spit ballin' there but the Onion did joke about that winter.. .and it was ongoing unprecedented badness ... Just there was no such thing as winter ... period... on this side of the hemisphere. The AO that autumn, unlike recently ... was NOT in error, and it was putting up two towers to +6 SD!!!! intermediated by a relaxation to +4 in between. Every day was 47 to 62 range for highs until mid January... Then, it all changed yeah..the AO crashed actually in early January and plummeted some 7 SD from +6 to -1 or -2... At first the cold dumped over in Eurasion but the wave number rotated around 10 days later and NP popped the AB phase /-EPO and we started getting cold... I think we snowed at the end of the month and then February made up some ground. I remember almost being disappointed at that point ( almost ) ...because when we got to mid point and it was exotic, it felt like tarnishing a Monet' art work and I wanted the painting to finish that way... I mean christ, if could have only made another month of it - .. .But where the hell was I going .. oh yeah, the Euro and EPS' flow is uncanny similar to that mean look of that Dec 2006. I don't know what or why they are - but I don't have any confidence in them necessarily for now either.

God bless Pivotal for existing ... But, I wish their displays were larger than just southern Canada and the conus adjacent marine - it's too small to gather a toe-hold on the hemispheric feeds and exits and good synoptic reads really need those perspectives - Anyway, the 850 mb EPS from 00z last night .. that's uglyXugly .. ugly*squared - green lawns and budding forsythias - ... yeah, safe to say, given the Euro's vision overall, there is not an interesting signal for Jan 7 - 11 lol... Probably the opposite

Nice signal on the GEF members for the Jan 7 -11 period. Most members carry 'some'thing .. ranging from baroclinic wall to a deep phasing constructs and coastal cryo - I think as soon as the CPC ensemble system rights its self we'll get better confidence in a blocking motif out there into the first half of the month. Recent CPC mean has parted company with the verification indicating it has been vastly too negative going back a week to 10 days with increasing error leading to the present time. In fact, the mean initialized about a whole SD lower than the verification curve in last nights output - ugh... The warm rain on Xmas actually WAS good fit for the AO/NAO ...but anyone CPC -reliant may have been nonplussed.. oops. But, forgetting the indices, the individual GEF members look stormy and it's not a bad look for those needing this excitement.

bold is all that matters seein' as everyone's dyin to know what I think lol. no, but I think the Euro leaning is telling tho.

Trend trend trend

Yeah ... like that Signer that slipped on stage next to Obama back in '13 ... and was completely mimicking how to sign-language for the hearing impaired and of course... since so few in attendance actually need or require that assistance, pretty much the whole press conference went down with this guy 'faking' The one or two deaf people are looking around scratching their head - I guess it would be the equivalent of us hearing this: " [0y89yh because -> AHFDHF when -8-87077- no sire fah;fhhhfd;sdh;f why! " Lol, like, there's some language in there somewhere, you know - man... that's like the funniest thing ever... If the guy wasn't a quack ... I mean was that like a streaker at a ball game. I wonder where that clown came from. It's not that far fetched to imagine a drunk college kid doing that on a goof or dare - hahaha

No one in here is completely objective, obviously. Don't have to delve deeply into any philosophy to see that no human being observing "reality" truly is. We're all perceiving, subsequently then evincing those perceptions along some tolerated spectrum of lesser lucidity. Having mused that, ... this engagement ? Ho my ... it has less to do with "analysis" of weather - but weather is just vehicle for affixing drama .. getting a 'kick' high - and when it is model dependent... It's not real.. artificial. ... short of experiencing that high, this becomes 'group support' - which is the real destination. Perhaps in some way that can be construed as "an analyst" - lol. I see where Scott's coming from in that arena. We've just been dealt a pretty significant 'personal' blow as winter Currier&Ives enthusiasts. He's smart ... he sets his coffee down and looks at some shit from over night and the first thing that pops to mind is, 'oh god here we go' and it pisses him off... Why? Not because someone spiked his 'Nog with vinegar - it's because it's a collective "soft" delusion ... People/J.Q. User and the tenor demos the delusion is being formulated, ...given time, solidification of that delusion into thinking it is real... Chris' pot-shot said it perfectly in snark the other day - and it was funny, because it was essentially true: '...people in here are more interested in a D7 storm on the models than they are seeing snow in air' This was never intended to be what/why these environmental prognostic tools were ever invented - it's an emergent aspect of the Internet era. I mean ..try to imagine your world 20 years ago, if you are old enough to have been cognizant of pre-Internet. But I digress -

That 00z GFS operational surface depiction is NOT struggling to get ice to N NJ and CT/RI ... Folks appear needing/seeking idealized model-positioning of features, but you're rarely going to get that in guidance... Doesn't work that way - and there are numerous ways to get a cold wedged or a "tuck jet" into position, early mid or late system gestation... The only real silver bullet synoptic arrangement there is, is having +PP N whilst a barographic layout featuring clear frontal position W -E S of HFD/PVD either prior to go live time or during for that matter. If you see that... Cold prevails. If waiting on model cycles for perfect 'high farther south', or 'cold front sufficiently cleared the area' first? You're waiting indefinitely ... You just need the tuck jet set up, ...nothing else. Those features, as were in that run cycle .. were all three, a-prior, education, and climo precedenced for generating that phenomenon, and whatever QPF pretty artistry is out there... toss anything that isn't ice and mix between Rt 2/Pike and snow and bee-bees N of that to however distance... and icing outside of urban island or sea shores down to EWR and interior/E of TTN S of the industrial park. Now... of course ... all this is rendered moot if it is proven to be true ... Scott's need to have every possible model since the invention of Lego's proves the only way to get to a wintry solution before the above can even take place... just sayin'

Keep in mind ... The CMC has a boundary layer warm biases at that range. Synoptically that’s going to have a 30 to 35 knot tuck jet funneling East of the White Mountains clear to Hartford Connecticut and that set up no question that’s all ice in the interior there ...as far as Northern New England yeah probably snow and bullets mixed in the northern 1/4 of that shield

Yeah I here you. Thing is… Each model is playing into their own biases right now which is typical of this range right in the middle range right there. The GFS is probably gonna be the first one to latch onto splitting the streams busting open affairs and turning it into a shred mess like this while the euro and Gspot tend to curve all flows in that range, Which tends them to hold these things together longer lifting bombs up into confluence Eu and G hold on too long GFS may bust open the ravioli too quick The head game is at either could be right or somewhere in between usually

Yeah a-heh. No .. if that sets up like that 144 chart ur icing to N NJ

‘ Remember posting that I thought it might do this on the 18 z ; it’s interesting it waited ... but anyway whatever I think that it’s possible this thing just keeps trending into either a flat snow event or some kind of ANA false hope… We may just be passing through the fun cycles bow on our right way to a flat solution I just can’t get over the speedy flow and I don’t know what’s going to slow this down ...really thread the needle this time. That’s is, for now

132 GFS looks interesting at 500 mb ..stronger with that polar jet over south and central and south eastern Canada which makes it a little bit interesting how it’s going to lift that Tennessee valley disturbance into that confluence like that

Neurotics Jan has about the same odds of being above(below) climo in snow

Is that a recent run tho - ...I've only recently caught wind of discussion that it's got better verification scores ( than many think ) ...so of course, that's when my source at Tropical Tits decides stop updating it. Their hung up on Dec 22, 00z

Yeah...no question ( Scott ) it was better oh.. 8 days back. We had the 29th, and it looked good, ..based upon the relative slowing of the 70 N band ...giving the hemisphere an implied cyclonic gist - that's an intrinsic constructive wave interference pattern as a canvas ..blah blah. what happens - ... every cycle since has been further and further from that same complexion. It's like we've seen three patterns: that one... then the shit in between, now there is a new semblance emerging perhaps last night into this morning.. Less conventional or 'mainstay' model types unraveling the multi stream phased look. I tell you one thing that's under the radar in all this.. That big Lakes cut and warm intrusion event over Xmas .. those types of cyclones have a climate signal for preceding -NAOs... It is interesting that the runs 8 days ago seem to suggest one - only to fail.

Lol, I think I've been agreeing with you over the last hour and didn't see your's/anyone else's posts.. I was just commenting that the GFS made a siggy whole scale change ...and I suspect we may be on the verge of just outright changing the landscape of that period of time... Dec 30 - ...I dunno the 4th... and it's not clear to me that whatever happens in there isn't multi staged, too... I could see this getting into a lull between type ordeal - ... These flat +PNAP flows that are fast... Really, the last thing was an anomaly relative to that to be honest. Almost consider this uncharted waters - I'd also encourage the tele user to pay attention to those annotations I made earlier - the AO/NAO are almost unusable presently at CPC

Watch... this 18z run will have that salmon stripe down to interior Mass -

Yeah, the more I look at that GFS... 6 hours sooner with the +PP building into/E ontario and it that air mass does an around and sets up an icing situation into CNE and probably tuck jet climo kicks in -

I thought the GFS actually leaned in favor of less full latitude too...interesting. In fact, if that 500 mb were to construct just a bit more confluence over Ontario, it's OV solution probably ends up underneath at the surface...

Oh, I've mused/lamented this more than a few times in recent years. It's the "cinema" of "weather charting" ... it has emerged endemic to the internet age. These modeling displays were never meant for this sort of general consumption by J.Q. En Masse. This and the engagement? It's an accident. I can't help but wonder if it is connected to some kind of persecution psychobabble - think about it... Folks have no control, and pine for the next run to rescue their mood? It really is almost no different than the circuitry of an abusive spousal relationship lol

Your ICON model joined the UKMET at 12z here... Thing is.. both avoid the full latitude trough expression... but they're signaling ice/ overrunning mix scenarios with that -

Really wish the CDC didn't go defunct processing these indices when the GFS' migrated to the expanded member ensemble system. When that took place there was no funding to recursively migrate the the core algorithms used to calculate the EOF system ... I was told by personnel at CDC that they did not know when any funding would be made available. Jesus, given to the tempo of the world affairs and judging by the Pandemic economy? good luck! It seems all these arms of the Government are destined to go to brown-out operatiions. Anyway, having multiple agencies assessing these indexes would do wonders to help in this situation. ...Something leaped out at me this morning that I had been negligent, and I suspect others have been too... or perhaps just didn't/don't know to consider: The AO prognostic intervals have become unusable - as their curves are off-line by too much to assume they have much deterministic value. All forecast intervals, D7, 10 and 14 ... The error is on the order of 2 SD (absolute value). I'm not sure if a "reset" of the system would fix this, or if it is more endemic/physical in the sense that the tech is what it is, and the atmosphere is just that complexly in a maelstrom. I have seen the system rebooted ( for lack of better words ...) in the past, but I am not sure what/why, or if just huge embarrassing gap control in the prog vs verification curve is ever a reason to do so... But either way, this is pretty bad folks, (note, the bold curve is the verification, and the other is ens. mean) That has grown GINORMOUS in error frankly, and given to the persistence and continued widening gap there... the prog's predictive use/value is almost meaningless at this point. The following statement may be more science fiction ...who knows, but with the Holiday season and an air of uncertainty et al the status of the world.. .one must wonder if there is anyone even there at the office over the last 10 days to address that glaring gap. I wouldn't trust the AO progs at CPC. Frankly, the NAO has a pretty bad error gap too - https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif and I would almost argue that because the flow is fast overall, ... it may be skewing these indexes because it mimicks the negative phase state to have massive jet velocities S of them ...but the regions are not really in a blocking mode ... just a supposition. Either way, these verified patternization and embedded features, and the operational versions ... they are all actually not a terrible fit for the verification curves we see above, in so far as the GEFs are concerned... And I suspect the EPS system may also be faltering ...as I have seen the NAO progs from them and they seem to mimick the GEFs... and neither is performing -..in fact, the curves are parting company at a 45 deg.. gross.