Typhoon Tip

mM... Something strange is going on in the QBO though. I'm suspicious of using that metric as a leading 'clean' or coherent indicator (statistically) for the SSW stuff... for that matter, the overall (+)(-)AO tendencies. It's tough - we are statistically in the 2 to 3 year gap and these cavities in SSW activity typically load-in in these windows, but having the QBO now flopping around for the first time in history - uh... This obviously caveats the indicators. One argues we are likely to get a warm wave event or two this winter; while the other has broken down. I don't think this latter aspect can be skipped over in any usage or attempt to use the QBO - The easterly phase of the QBO is somewhat more correlated to the advent of short, sharp, clean and (crucially) downward propagating warming events - the latter aspect being important in the time-lag -AO mode. When the warming leading to the ensuing -AO take place, the mode can last just a couple of weeks, or the rest of the hosting winter season - there are examples of variable length once the -AO kicks in. So what's up with the QBO ? The regular 24 to 36 month periodicity spanning the last 70 years of the observations has recently twice failed for the first time(s). In plain English ... the QBO reversed when it should not have. And by that, the predictable nature of timing the oscillation/reversal in top-down modeling was thrown out of whack ..certainly is a 'woah' moment, rattling confidence of the QBO as a dependable indicator. What/why it broke down? ...enter supposition here [ ] But, this 2nd event appears to be taking place now... The previous was back during 2015-2016 winter ... However, that event shows up as a greater numerological variance, swinging hugely from positive to negative phase with little or no warning. Right now...this is appears to be taking place more subtle... with variance at shallower in absolute values: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data Also...as an afterthought, there is a bright correlative relationship in the data between the MJO phases and the AO... MJO "might" even be used as an apparent leading mode of the AO... whereby the phase 2 thru 6 that are strengthening tends to lead the onset of the +AO, and vice versa on there other side of the phase diagram . This is thought to be the case because 2-6 tend to correlate with stronger subtropical ridging ...and that strengthens the westerlies over top where the circulation join the westerly main mass transport... Thus torque balancing --> weakens cyclogenesis at middle latitudes. Contrasting, the other side... robuster cyclogenesis results, increasing the ambient lower Ferrel Cell easterly trades in the lower boundary of the winter-time PV ( 45 to 70 N) ...and that means the the PV is being stressed/weakens... a.k.a -AO. I personally believe the recent observations wrt to the HC also play a role in enhancing the +AO, because: .. intuitively, the 2-6 phases of the MJO are probably getting a large/super synoptic scale constructive interference pattern by the current +HC ... which offers an early clue as to +AO winter ... experimental. Which is interesting, because the solar minimum going back hundreds of years of reanalysis ..certainly correlates reasonably well if not fantastically so, with the -AO ...again...we're stuck with diametric signals here. With the QBO acting flakey in an unprecedented way... the AO being stuck positive during an opposing solar mimimum correlation that has been pretty sterling as a -AO correlation ( but is not..>) ... and the HC ... plausibly if not likely muting some of the ENSO effects due to smothering gradient dispersal inside the HC boundary ...etc... The snarky cynic in me thinks this winter is a big huge steaming pile of CRAP shoot...and throwing enough shit against the wall is going to make someone look like an "accidental" genius But then I recollect and gather around some form or hope of rationalism and simply state that ... it's fair to question the hitherto "traditional" institution of correlations, because the geophysical dynamics are changing, and that " synergistically" is altering world right before our eyes ... But it's all supposition and tongue in cheek,... I'm not here to refute or impugn anyone's effort - just fwiw ... But there is truth in these concerns

2nd most boring time of the year behind April now in full effect

I posit some of the issue with NINA anomalies ( perceived as such...) may be because the easterlies are entering a new climate paradigm, where they are stronger ... In this idea, these lower latitude mass flux anomalies are a compensating for the general large scale circulation that is featuring ( empirical at that ... ) mid latitudes jet velocity anomalies that are integrating a faster planetary troposphere in the westerlies ... Conservation has to diverge that flow some where, some how - propose ..some goes N; the rest goes S. And in the latter sense, that mass ends up arcing back west into the trade belt. This positive flux sourcing is augmenting the easterlies. I'm just not sure if this is cartoon/ACME Industries logic ( b-bunny road-runner reference ) ... but, so long as large Coriolis torque is balanced and the mass motion is not exceeding that force - I don't see how it that explanation can be dismissed out of hand. If that hypothesis is true ... it's not then a tremendously difficult leap of insight to suspect sea-surface stressing from the east is also enhancing ...as a base-line state. And the latter bold is crucial as a distinction between it, and the La Nina - which it can certainly mimic/cast off that impression of La Nina. Compounding further, there may in fact "BE" a concurrent La Nina super synoptic forcing in play - the former hypothetical would thus [ probably ] constructively interfere and enhance the illustration of it - ... But not seeing aspects of La Nina behave the way they should, may be betraying that a weak La Nina is really what is there ...if perhaps getting dressed up to be something more than it is by the effects of a "new" base-line of strengthening lower tropospheric easterly trades. fascinating - ... But this same effect may also account for why recent El Ninos haven't been presenting as proficiently in global patternization of the westerlies/R-wave distribution as it has notably across many decades of the past ( prior to ~ 2000... ). No...it's not 0 - as in not observable at all...just an attenuation and lowering of the expectation/somewhat failure along typical climate pathways.

Did y’all see the 18z GFS over the North Atlantic ... 900 mb low ?

It could certainly come back ... but it is irresistible to tease people because they have no other outlet to trigger dopamine joy and have become dependent upon a weather models to do so... ha. But, climatologically? this is still the period of time for the so dubbed, 'home grown' season - I mentioned last week that this was probably just being a sensitivity issue in the GFS, based upon those native numerical instabilities at this time of year that permeate that 'petri dish' for TC's in that area - I even said we 'go through this ever year' where the the GFS ( and sometimes the GGEM used to) brings a TC across Cuba. sarcastically.. comparing it to Sandy - which ...was a scenario where the GFS "probably" at first did the same antic, but then the scored at the black-jack table when one actually did develop. I remember some 13 days prior to Sandy, early model runs had a similar evac of TC... But, as fate would have it, the NAO tanked ( crucially west based no less!), such that a cumulus cloud would be forced to into the MA... and then a perturbation timed right and found fertility in that area - boom... Also, back in 2003 the GGEM did this - reiterating that post... which, yeah - seems arbitrary to reference and era 17 years back but it's relevant regardless - It's was probably just illusions of numerical instability ... not "yet" realized... Whether the yet materializes? It may still... but at this time, it is just modeled to do so - in the meantime, there are recent/other compensating physics going on that are muting that climate signal, and that is why the models are not spinning up the phantoms, either. It does probably lower the probability altogether that anything there will develop if that is the case because that means that the muting emerged rather than a TC from the "uncertainty principle" of chaos as we get closer - lol.. .but yeah

because of the decoupled nature of the atmosphere and cold density at the surface was lensing (atmospheric refraction )

it's almost like a spring event in a way ... I'm 56 in full sun and d-slope "mild" air, and said air is the same which serviced that snow along the roof-tops up there... Tomorrow's low 60s -

Unfortunately ... this Euro solution is really a motif of the model's D8-10 amplitude bias - * but * it does have the GEFs teleconnectors and the GFS operational backing it so ... mm maybe.

yeah there was one I think that was it - I'll go google it... anyway, cross Cuba there is interesting - the topography at that expanse of the island is flat-ish...

Good ... err, I guess? depends on what dystopian needle the addict is after - We've implicitly floated two plausible ( and highly likely! ) scenarios... a hurricane composed of snow and not rain; a hurricane This gem above is the latter - and...in order to get a 'real' hurricane this late in the year, you want steering flow without trough injecting it's poison and this run ... being 10+ days of course makes it highly likely that it's going to pull off that deliciously rarified scenario. I do find it strange that that of the last 28 cycles of this model ... ( 7 someodd days worth ..), may 1/4 of the runs have been showing up with that idealized success story - heh...

I know ... it was a joke - yeah agreed though... I am seeing the last 3 cycles of the most emphatic model in this debate - being the GFS ... - averaging 120 hours for the closing off a pressure contour ... down in the petri dish of the western Caribbean climate womb of this time of year. SO, it's not really day 10 ? I get what y'all mean though... It's day 10 -ish to get it astride the EC like that. Firstly, if the 246 hour position in correct, it is not going over Cape Cod - no way ... If a deep tropospheric integrate monster like that is in that position, with that ilk in scale and dimension of troughing approaching the Apps ... that fugger is going to cut right up the Green Mountain cordillera... It's fantasy-land time but... it is still - even within that that acceptance - safe to assume the model is 'beta drifting' the track to edge it east... The steering is not situated along that vector ...

...yeah better fire up a thread huh - lol

Has this ever happened so idealized ... Just curious.

That rain looks like it means business about to submerge the sered Mad Maxian dystopian wasteland known as CT .... I bet by mid afternoon, they are en route to doubling modeled rain

You have to realize ... once the provincial has been exposed to the next higher order dramatic circumstance, anything less ...even if the lesser value is a 960 mb coastal flood bombing earthquake triggering pandemic is just an utter crap out piece of shit forgettable failure -

I got a question for those individuals ...or anyone else, posting precipitation anomaly products... Are those 'melted' equiv. ? I suspect so... for science utility, snow totals really don't mean as much for climate as the precipitable water - which either snow or rain is equally rooted... which thus requires a standard mass format... Liquid is that rest state - so... melt the snow, and call it all rain? I don't typically ever put much stock in those precipitation products because I noticed in the 1990s ...then more tacitly during the early 2000's...any prediction, no matter how touted the source, was 100 % always wrong ... hands thrown... It's never f'n right folks... ever - and that may be some frustration there ... fine, but the skill, at least from what I have been exposed to, just doesn't validate the effort. I may not be completely right? - this isn't a declarative - Just from what I've seen over the years and years and years of it ...it's on par with the Farmer's f'um Almanac if you ask me... Which ... I suspect their extra top secret recipe ...is really nowadays in modernity woken up to science by merely employing what everyone else does. They have to be... unless they have some pulsing, glowing emerald that hums and spines information lighting to some sort of mystical console that then tells them their forecast fantasy ... But then again, they'd have a bone to pick with that god because that god must be a f'n dumbasstic moron then because the FA sucks asshole too - My advice...? Don't .... I'd suggest going with temperature alone ...and figuring that whatever falls, it'll edge heavier than the 50 or 100 year mean - relative to phenomenal circumstances - due to GW -attributed ambient increases in PWAT feeding anything that's animate in the atmosphere....

I'm not sure what your intentions are with this "snark" ? But, I happen to agree with him regarding that particular spatial-temporal range . I just droned on about it in my own way over in the tropical thread. But to paraphrase: There is a significant modal change in the PNA ...going from a local time-scale nadir to a concerted rise through neutral .. ending at a +1 SD out there toward week two. Going from -2 to +1 in a domain space the represents the shear girth and mass of atmosphere that the PNA does, is a huge momentum signal - just sayn' To add conceptually ... the alarm clock for seasonal/climate teleonnector significance has gone off. The PNA comes to life now as useful corrective tool - I wouldn't put it lightly to have every GEF member there is, signaling support for the operational version. Then, to have the disparate ECM run landing both in trend and single runs now on top that same sort of notion of a deep eastern N/A trough ... Heh...I don't think that is discountable out of hand - ... I realize you employ no meteorological skill as an impish sort of internet clown that likes to poke social media hornet nests like a deviant Trump rally drama queen... but, sometimes you gotta check your going modes at the door and realize that in this reception hall of reality, "you can't always get what you want" ...This strikes me as a wonderful opportunity for you to demonstrate real growth and even a quasi ethical approach to the engagement here -

...that said, the Euro does at least set the table for an usual event ... It is interesting to see that with the Euro's pretty clear bias of meridional flow exaggeration in its extended range ( in this case ...way out there, notwithstanding), vs the GFS ...which has a velocity rich bias causing a longitudinal stretching all the way up to the R-wave scales ... ( causing an opposing end state usually ) they've still managed to animate similar deep full latitude trough anomaly through that spatial-temporal range. The GFS happens to have a hurricane ...and as we all know, has been occasionally entangling one precariously near or into said trough for many cycles now - just not consistently in positoin or time but ...that's a forgone conclusion when modeling day 12 and beyond ( geez) ... Anyway, should the Euro come around to the growing consensus for some form of western Caribbean TC ... any said realization probably also feels the steering influence and gets evacuated out ... it doesn't take a huge leap of visionary insight to imagine any such feature as being rail-roaded along a similar precarious circumstance. So ...in simple terms, the period of time should be watched. Either way, just noting... according to recent trends/modalities of CPC's various teleconnectors.. there is a concerted rising motion in the PNA and NAO out through week two - that tends to herald a time for troughing over eastern N/A. Plus, climo for TC and trough marriages is hot through late November anyway ...so there's that -

Well, ... to point out the obvious - The GFS has a hurricane as a coherently separate phenomenon ... captured and evacuating up astride the EC on that frame... Contrasting, the Euro does not carry said feature - at all. The Euro's depiction is a purely en route to formulating an extratropical cyclogenesis, with perhaps an argument not worth having for some sort of weakly establishing yet doomed TD in the process of being evacuated out of the subtropics amid the barotropic conveyor ... that's a bug just before the windshield at 70 mph there.. Typically... full bird matured hurricanes and extratropical cyclones do not present with the same pressure pattern morphology on a weather map - it's like the difference between looking at a galaxy from a billion light years away, vs a tight, close spectral analysis of the quasar at said galaxies nucleus ...where the gradient of space time is severely sloped. But in more practical terms, the ballast of the upward vertical momentum of TC is near the core; where as, baroclinic lows ...which derive their mechanical forcing from larger synoptic jet mechanics ..are by virtue thus spread out. Sometimes, ... a uniquely intersecting jet fields will pass over unusually, vertically sloped low level thickness gradient...causing very upright air parcel motion where said jets happen across that gradient. The diffluence requires huge restoring mass to lift, but as it passes over the upright structure ... this gives the UVM exceptionally efficient conversion of psuedo-adiabatic heat release into velocity - and that will drive excessive internal pressure falls: 'bombogenesis' as it were... This may transiently take-on a pressure pattern structures that mimics the orientation of tropical cyclone phenomenon - but usually as the low "maxes" out, the internal pressure may stabilize, while remaining deep, and associated wind/response both expand so there is more proportional layout between the intervals between the core and the outer periphery of the low.

James .. they may vary slightly (or not...) from agency to agency but the Climate Diagnostic Center labels them as: Pacific North America Pattern (PNA) [(15-25N, 180-140W)-(40-50N, 180-140W)+(45-60N, 125W-105W)-(25-35N, 90W-70W)] North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) [(35-45N, 70W-10W) - (55-70N, 70W-10W)] Western Pacific Oscillation(WPO) [(25-40N, 140E-150W) - (50-70N, 140E-150W)] Eastern Pacific Oscillation(EPO) [(20-35N, 160W-125W) - (55-65N, 160W-125W)] (Couresy: https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/ ) However, any variances between agency definitions would likely not reflect a difference in correlation significance - meaning...doesn't really matter. Note, due to the recent upgrades in the GEFs ensemble system, CDC's coverage/calculations necessarily need to be reconstructed; however, I shared a correspondence with personal at that office recently who indicated that there is no present funding for such an operation - therefore, public URL access to CDC - derivatives is discontinued pending further notice. Nevertheless, these are the domain spaces that were employed for the GEFs, and though I cannot confirm this with certainty .. it is likely that any new system won't change these geographical areas - it is the data density that is the cause for the product suspension and revamp necessity. The ECMWF and/or UKMET ( super blend..etc) may or may define their domain regions the same way.

Word... lightning in a bottle on that first one - it kind of goes like hopping in a car and non-suspecting you end up having the time of your life that evening. So you go back and retrace the events and the experience is gone - He hasn't done much recently. He may need a pay check - so the first one was good enough it has cache and a league cult following... it only need a quarter million fans to make a cheap buck. In today's day and age, you can dog-shit a napkin, create a hashtag for it ... boom! 250,000 beef-wit followers - it's a numbers game

NCEP reported that winter that season, it was not well coupled until very late in the winter months ...don't blame messenger ... I remember the pattern over N America not resembling the El Nino very well - and when I read that...I was like, well yeah. - not to mention...it was a supposedly an off the chart hot EL NINO and it had trouble coupling in their estimation. I don't believe those MEI number reveal the ENSO was driving the global patternization though - you can tuck those MEI numbers into a maelstrom dominated by super circumstances that mute its existence. The MEI is still just a band within narrow latitudes, well inside the HC's termination latitudes with the westerlies - which is where the pattern is defined over top all that. MEI may have been coupled ... but the atmosphere around it was not demonstrating its exertion - that's the point. And, the climate zones were being less impacted, concertedly, too - again...that's not me. Also, I wouldn't claim coupling was not a factor... It's a matter of how much so - ... as usual. There are no 1::1 correlations... maybe what was once a .64::1 correlation is now .38::1 thing ...

If it is coupled ... sure... But expanding HC doesn't mean it can't couple ...just that thermodynamically in an oceanic-atmospheric couple environment, if the warm HC does manage to couple with a warm ocean, the gradient where the HC terminates with the westerlies is still N of where the coupled region was ... prior to 2000 and so forth... But a warm expanded HC makes it harder for coupling because the thermodynamics is differentiated less - If/when the latitude of the HC terminations/gradient N, that alters the R-wave structures around the hemisphere ...either way - But during the great super Nino that happen 4 or 5 clicks ago now... ( was that 2014 ?) NCEP's ENSO publications routinely stated ...all year long, that the atmosphere was not appearing to be actually coupled to the ENSO state - pretty much that is 95% quotable string as they even stated it... Finally...toward the third week of February, that seemed to change - and they even said, 'finally... ' But the HC structure is not being dictate by ENSO...that's not true - nope. The HC is expanding ... because warm total atmosphere stores more water vapor in gaseous form, and the tropics are storing more thermally - the ENSOs are engulfed inside that bubble. It's really like said bubble used to expand( contract) by warm(cool) ENSO's ... but since the HC expanded beyond the ENSO belt ... it's not clear the HC is responding - as NCEPs noted and these evidence of breakdown climatology have also been materializing... Outside of my hypothesis these are true ..but they fit -

Anyway, jokes and speculation aside... Though I have my convictions emerging about that other shit ...I think in the meantime we have a N-stream dominate winter by appearance. Here's the trouble though - I don't know if STJ's are also problematic in an expanded HC thing ? Because ... seems with the gradient being pushed/relocated N of 1700 - 1980 ... more so since 2000 ... that starts exceeding those latitude where we see that particular feature - the impetus behind this reasoning is that for one ...I am some kind of catastrophic loser with no life ... why am I f'n typing this crap ... but two, gradient in the troposphere derives the axis of westerlies/Jet streams by classical convention -