Typhoon Tip

ah, you beat me to it - I just posited the same sort of gist ...

Plus ...keep in mind, all this consternation could be true, and there's still the random 2015 - ... These are not absolute limitations... it's like everything in nature, however - we deal in a reality governed by probabilities. It's just that when a given system gets f'ed around with, it changes the machinery of said system, and it producing differently. GW ( leaving the "A" out of it ) ... changes the machinery of the atmospheric system. So...you know, suppose probability says that 60% of the time you will see a certain flavor of outcome, means one happens to be more likely to see said outcome at any given point along the way... blah blah... The thing is, as of 2007, the Special C Report flagged the expansion of the HC ...based upon the 1980 -2000 data ... That was 13 years ago, concerning a time span that years prior to that ... Do we think that's gone the other way with age ? - hello As of that report, the expansion was estimated to be 3 to 6 degrees of latitude. And we have 'hockey -sticked' the climate since. I don't know...but, integrating a 10 deg latitude expansion through a boreal winter ...that's probably enough to atone for fast winds. Here's the other thing...Those fast winds, I think... are causing polar indexes to register more positive, because it speeds up the flow - that mimics a stronger PV in general. Talk about the 'teleconnector interpolations' changing - yeah. Yet, all of this stuff needs a decade or two to get proven, and if all this were not enough...it seems these systems are also changing now faster than humans can spin out said proofs and actually have the consensus except them. Hell, we still call it "The General Theory of Relativity" ... when there is no empirical data that supports it being anything less than Law. And it's been 100 years

I have a hypothesis ... why these are taking place. Firsty, I don't believe the demonstrative recurrence of either autumn or spring substantive cold over eastern N/A is mere dicey ...I think it is rooted in large scaled changes to the climate. These are narrow opportunistic times spans, inside of which .. the gradient richening of the total circulation is enhancing patterns that can deliver cold, earlier and later.. But, during the winter proper months, said gradient gets so extreme that we end up with a lot more destructive vs constructive interference maelstroms ... This is blunting events from happening during those meatier winter hemispheres. As the atmosphere's passing back out of the that regime ...it passes back through a normal gradient as the wave lengths are shortening, and that offers a narrow window of cold insert ( May ...) but this is opposite passing the other direction in Autumns. I think the autumn and late cold snaps ,... are probably related to the same forcing, as it is heading in opposite directions. But that by virtue means that yes... October may not portend winter, but knowing why ... a fast ambient atmosphere/destruction of wave harmonics in lieu of conserving torque at very large R-wave structures - is just not something the hemisphere is going to achieve as a base-line state in October or November ... Or as proficiently going in the other direction... In a sense, you could flip this argument around and suggest that a shitty f'um late January somehow implies a "great" April - heh...if you like 40/38 drizzle with a synoptic glopper... Personally, I'd rather not burn fossil fuels and get back to Currier&Ives Januariers lol

That's sort of what I'm thinking, in principle ...I mean, only the bat-shit crazed fantasies of an obsessive 22 year-old woman's crush would ever 'count' on 70s and 80s occurring twice in the same decade, in February - ( although this GW ..and we are on a metaphoric 'hockey stick' change ) But the gist of it. A warm up ...perhaps a lagged 'thaw' not atypical to mid winter lore is viable ... But in this day and age, yeah...good luck guessing how limited the extent of that is. The thing is, the 2018 warm spell happened after February 10 and although that is not taken very seriously, it matters. You need to have the solar input ... The sun is feebler prior to the ~ date, and it makes huge difference passing that 'electromagnetic fluxing event horizon'... I remember that Dec 2006 and 1999, ...we had 70 F in SE ridge dominant pattern(s)... with 850 mbs to +12 or even 15C !! 70 F ... On Feb 15, on the warm side of said virtual boundary? that's 80 - ...I mean, provided other circumstances with cloud and saturation are not skewing heating potential...etc..etc.. But I could see a warm up ... but the problem with the deep field notion of March 2018 walking through the door... I don't think this is the same hemisphere frankly so that end of it ... well, I don't typically engage in seasonal outlooks. Because I'm not good at it.. lol - but, I would surmise that an (HC + La Nina base-state )/2 ... probably doesn't = cold spring ?

It's hard to remove one's humanity from this involvement - if we were as unmoved, and un-emotively guided as computers, there would have been no posts in the past 10 days due to overwhelming logical influence of low probability of returns in this overall set up. We've been pining and posting truth-evasive spin ...while troughs through California transit en route to Arizona...have downwind stretched ridging ... in the means, extending from the front range of the Rockies' longitudes, with some 10 or 12 isohypses rising over the bulge... and what? did we actually think there was hope in getting a S/W amplitude in the east ?? this is commiseration - not trolling ... but, all the erstwhile the PNA has technically been positive at CPC ( oh, btw - ) yikes. What happens (then) when next week it plumbs to some -2.5 SD nadir, at the same time, and actually supports that sort of thing. So the NAO relaxes ( thank heaven for that much ..), but rising NAO that in fact goes to +1 at GEFs-CPC, with a 7 to 10 day neggie PNA ...usually lifts the westerlies over eastern N/A; and since the exertion comes from the S in the expansion shit (always exerting) that's all a constructive interference for warmth I'm afraid. So, the problem I have is that it smacks to me as a huge warm up ...just like when I see a chance of a big storm way out there, the other way ... Sort of synergistically inferred, where the models merely have yet to depict it - I almost sense similarly, that when the NAO decays and the PNA is still passing through that nadir ... we could see the models start doing a February 2018 ridge ... I've been toying with that the past several days - haven't said anything as I am sure that such an insight will garner a captive audience in this particular social media'sphere LOL Edit, as an afterthought ... the AO and SSW stuff ... it should be exerting now. It's hard to separate though, because the AO was successfully sustaining a negative index for the month or so prior to this timing. Moreover, presently the AO is forecast to raise to near neutral ... before ?falling? more modestly later on in week two. That's not very convincing that this SSW is really exerting and it is also questionable - to me - that there were/are other planetary mechanics going on that may be damping that input altogether. If that's the case...February is naked -

Yeah, it's called the 2004 (?2002? not sure) but ALCS against the Yankees back in the "Surviving Grady Little" years of infamy and dodging success in creative sabotage. It's the bottom of 5th ... 'Sox still leading 5-3 ...but the Yank's blooped a guy on first, then again ... after a teaser strikeout betwixt. And there they were, Pedro's ego and Little's enabling lack of ability to impose any intelligent will to the scenario, separating happiness from the fan-bases destiny that fateful autumn. So with a guy on 2nd and 1st, one out, and a full-count at the plate ... you knew. Hey, we were winning ! It was 5-3 at that instant of mordant prescience ...

Kidding aside ... -- teleconnector inference as an 'art,' and even to some extent a practicum .. have both become 'usefully blurred.' I don't know if anyone's noticed this - I have.. I've opined at times over the last couple of years - but one could more successfully 'flavor' their mid and extended range patterns accordingly, years ago ..more like decades, and their visions turn out charmed. It's getting harder to be reliant. A 1980 spread of indices ...does not seem to connote the same scenarios as they do in present era/years. I am not sure if the speed of the hemisphere's base-line velocity increasing has anything to do with it. But there is a seasonal lagged expansion of the HC ..intruding deeper into colder months and higher latitudes of the winter hemispheric states ( or, maybe it's just angels hating this social media's eclectic snow zealotry fan-base - lol..) But there has to be a reason why it snows in October and May so aberrantly compared to the 300 years of crunched climate numbers prior to the year 2000. Oh, we know it has snowed in October and May ... but that's also myopic. The point is increasing frequency ( as a metric indicator for change), combined with, not just 'may' or 'october'... Springs and autumns being apropos. It's only been five times in ten years, in a medium that's what, ... 500,000,000 years of geological consideration - So taken fwiw, those five years we've suffered dearthy midriff winters while introducing this book-ending futility phenomenon. Keep in mind, there is no northerly 'edge' to the HC. Ha, just like 'climate change' - it's invisible, so it has no direct advocate that appeals to the corporeal senses, and to 90% of human life...that of course means it can't exist .. It's an amorphous...virtually seamless transition terminating its cellular circulation eddy, rendering to the polar trade wind zones in a non-fixed latitude, no less, to really complex the hell out of the discussion... But it is all morphed(ing) and exerting - imho. A -2 NAO in 1980, even west based and similarly positioned blocking mass in space and time, probably should not imply the same over the eastern seaboard of the CONUS...due to morphologies in R-wave modulation, and the fact that tele's tend to break down and transition to new phase states faster in this modern era, too. The problem with phasing is because there is too much wind velocity ...because in the means, this is disrupting the critical x-coordinate wave motion with respect to the y-coordinate wave motion, when the S /streams are in the process of bi-passing the N /stream impulses. It really is wave harmonics vs inharmonic interaction/proficiency therein. And since the HC expansion started getting scienced by NASA and private think-tanks and f'ing math ... this velocity shit has arrived precisely in tandem. I dunno... quacks like a duck, we be f'ck'ed for standardized previous century models. I mean we'll get clocked eventually .. my guess ? it'll have some "air" of oddity in/of 'how in the hell did that happen'

It'll be 46/44 every day until May 1 in order to aggregate the warmest 60 days in history ...relative to climate -

That would be something though .. That low sheds 25 mb in 12 hours there on Cape Hatteras and pounds Norfolk VA with 2 foot ....a location that may average .15" a year - lol... Hyperbolic but still - probably in the ball park

Yeah I've been noticing that too... Helps to carve out/complete a REX structure ( -NAO ridge over Low couplet ) those are like a pawn-bishop defense in Chess -

Never ceases to amaze me how swear words can send a bug up assholes - kidding

It's not 'tough to grasp' why folks may or may not think so... but there are enormous events on the books during blocking... The point was, it is not ...or should not be, an 86 pattern assumption. Folks are pissed - I get it.. and the hyperbole falls like the snow that ain't

I'm not sure regression automagically dooms storm chances ...or entertaining value to model guidance .. or whatever's one's purpose for being here though. Why does that necessarily mean that ? ..and don't say something of razor sharp cutting insight like, 'look around you...' - that's myopic. No, this pattern just sucks asshole - that's it. Nothing less, probably something more. But it's sucking asshole manifests as other reasons ...fast flow is killing wave harmonics = 'negative interference' = no entertainment ... and that's it. You can have a retrograde tendency and skulpt out history and parades. This is just endemic to now,and won't do that. Regression isn't a bitch - the circumstance at hand, is. I don't know, does it lend to comfort to nail down a silver bullet to blame ? Nah...the pathway to salvation is admitting the suckness and then keeping eye on the future.

It's a horrible pattern - why do we keep saying this ? ... if it were a otherwise, we wouldn't be stacking adjectives like meat grinder this or suppressed like an Electra complex in describing a why features won't phase -

Perfect!

Not to split hairs with you but I guess ,.. what constitutes "real threat" then ? Because isn't the 26th is on the table - you know...while we're at it, I can see not calling the 26th a threat. I don't like the use of the word 'threat.' Drives me batty for petty reasons ( I admit that ...) but I still hate it. Every exploded virga CU is not a threat. I mean, I see this word put on thread titles or nested in sentences over every kink in a jet stream and threat means portending harm. "Ok, it's only 2-4 inches but I'll go fire up a thread for this threat threat threat... " "Threat" should be reserved for that three, maybe four day window before 1992 ... or 1993, 1978 ... or any one of those talcum powder overrated dust blizzards from 2015 ( that oughtin' piss off the ceremonial torch bearers ) These are more like 'events' until otherwise deemed necessary to gaslight the headlines - just sayn'

man.. perfect mid-grade dendrite aggies out there... about 3/4 mi vis so light but they're shattering upon impact with side mirrors and handrail edges ( how's that for a dork ob ...) ... Probably some plates and columns - it's chilly. 26F boo- yah, we got a day below freezing. Helluva an achievement -

Cyclone, she's taking the N route but this 'feels' like a clipper burst out there nonetheless right now.

Haha... I know - it's like "positive trolling" lol... Or in psycho-babble parlance, 'bargaining' to maintain hope in the face of already proven futility - (sarcasm)

He's right - it whiffs ... It may have trended ? say that -

Yeah... I don't mean to lord this idea ..or abase what you just said there, because you're right - but I suspect there is some era/climate -relativity in the usefulness of the distinction. In concise terms, I think the velocity saturation/surplusing we are seeing ( anomalous wind speed in the balanced atmospheric state ) over the last 10 years ..is taking its "interpretive toll" on the teleconnector relationships. I mean in simplest terms, the -PNA/-NAO of 1955 ... isn't the same affair now. But I was just trying to add some plausible reasons why - running blocks at 60+N with 110 knot "NON -S/W" wind fields underneath is a desctructive interference scheme... We'll see how the next 7 to 10 days of this -NAO is handled ... I think we can 'squeeze' a needle thread. In fact, I am actually highly confident that some vestigial jet stream mechanics will ignite some limited overrunning/ANA ..if not weak low but the latitude it escapes the EC and impacts while doing so, ...prooobably comes down to that elephant ass polar circulation ( "Scooter streak" I think we joked in the past ??) hanging over top of us ... I have noticed a lot of run to run high sensitivity on where said axis of any system moves is directly being position when the GFS has been bumping that stream NE and SW of previous modeled axis. It seems overall .. the guidance' want the system but are having issues with up N.

Oh yeah...this is a weather board - Yeah, it's like a soupcon of 'unmanned fire hose' in how this poor performance is behaving in the models.

That books already exists:

Mm...I happen to like Ray's turn of phrase a lot actually. I have thought to self at times, this is a person that could do this too if he wanted - you just need a creative idea, believe in it..start writing ..and it feeds itself - so to speak. It's really built into all humans - we are language processor units. Dolphins...other whales... arguable, birds even ( now there's a real battle of wits! ), yeah, they have language - demoed and proven to be so mathematically ... But it's not the same, c'mon man. I hate those comparisons. WE DO TRANSCEND... as much as we f'up the planet and see examples of embarrassing stupidity at all walks of society ... there really is no comparison. We are all storytellers built in. And no, those species don't pack dendritic density and neuroplasticity required for the same kind of human to human instruction that puts us at a distinct and vast advantage. Let me know when dolphins communicate the theory that reality is just synergistic emergence of the Quantum Mechanics ... Musing in a novel, that the QM is but the projector, and the movies screen is our souls and our lives, and our existentialism. Let me know when birds generate vaccines for pandemics, based upon reading and learned via language spanning generations of science... Or, when the elephants f'n realize that we are on a planet, around a star ...around a galaxy ... amid galaxy clusters ... amid galaxy superclusters ... in a tapestry of superclusters strung together over regions so vast as to exceed any sort of comprehension; therefore for all intents and purposes is essentially infinite in scale... The only reason why we are limited in our capacitance to see that infinity, is because God is a coward that hides - hahaha...kidding. Anyway, I think Tamarack up there has some ability to ... these are different styles. And one doesn't have to be any kind of 'different level' I'm not. Trust me...If you meet me in person I'm a clown

You know ... I f'ed up when I wrote 'Dominion' ( above ..) First of all, I hate that title. It was supposed to be "Dominia," after the dark goddess of Russian lore, but it was too obscure for the publisher's taste ...so it wound up with the other. Thing is, there is already a goddamn Dominion in every f'n subgenre already and I didn't know that ...because I am shockingly and shamefully vanilla about Literary circles and art... I don't give a shit frankly. I like writing - I don't like reading.. weird I know. Anyway, what I wanted to say is that Dominion isn't written 'that way,' like that passage that folks seem to respond positively to - I really want to write in that way, more often. But, Dominion was written sort of caught limbo between that scientific jargon and the description efforts/humanity and it makes it sort of a difficult read I suspect. But, you know...I've read some books by well known authors ( I didn't say I don't read at all ) that I thought were were dry miserable wastes of my time but felt 200 pages in that I needed to see the investment through. Ironically...I may have cranked out one of these - I dunno... But I I think 'Weather Diaries' would resonate more personably and entertaining... ah well. Live and learn