Typhoon Tip

Know what'd be somethin' ? What if this thing ends up actually low end/Advisory ... and while licking prognostic wounds and dodging the usual assortment of subversive sour-grape motivated trolling practices... people are distracted from seeing the next wave becoming substantive. That latter wave is quite coherently interfering badly with this thing and has been getting more so annoying in that regard.. Maybe as it comes in to the Br. Col coast, 'magine if it ends up coming in hugely powerful...? Shit..probably what happens is this wave ends up 4-6" ( not bad - won't complain...) but it'll sweep the testosterone seaward so the next one just wants to go to sleep... And we get one of those "Miller D" - dry Nor'easters ... otherwise known as "coastal Dunce storm" ... 980 mb 70 naut Mi SE ACK with flurries all around it ... You know, that ICON model does show another cyclogen over the ocean between Hatteras and Bermuda toward Friday because of this, which is a correction toward more of that... See, jokes aside ..this fast progressive stuff is also highly mutable and you can get these morphologies seemingly out of nowhere - hence the lower deterministic value when one is suffering this pattern. The whole week still could be a work in progress.. I'm not predicting anything just sayn'

I keep hitting this phrase in my internal monologue - 'it's a race' It really is... I mean, the GFS is right - if perhaps 'too fast'. This thing is pancaking ... en route to being squashed out of existence by a "failed 50/50's ability to back slow the flow" - don't get me started on that NAO's typical absentee fatherhood on this mo' fugga ... I'm partial to blame too - haha... Anyway, hey, ...least I said there was a possibility on page 1,000,000... ( about a billion pages ago...) that it was possible the progression wins and well... too early to completely rule it out but you're odds are fleeting at best for slower solution to happen... Anyway, it's really again a matter of rate of decay versus does this have mechanics enough to still get the deed done as the wave's swan song? I think the GFS is too fast - owing to it's speedy progressive nature ( anyway..) it's sort of like getting to that shearing aspect too quickly - .. .On the other hand, I could see the UKMET being too conserved the other way. Course of least regret? (GFS + UMKET)/2 * cosmological constant of electron double-split uncertainty principle = X

Mm. Ya know ... people who engage in this distraction are really after the cinema the weather charts offer; and there is a story and thematic arc there, just like any story that gets told… And it takes a good deal of one’s imagination hence “design“ to turn those pages. In a sense I think most of the people that are hobbyists and Meteorologists .. are all like designers – or at least carry that trait in common…

Just another perspective ..but fwiw, here's my bullet point analysis: * the total tropospheric wave space is deamplifying as it is moving thru.. * the GFS is uniquely qualified to snif this sort of phenomenon ..because it carry's on with a bit of progressive ( sort of ..)/ speed shearing bias, anyway... Therein, it may rush the delta(dampening)/dt process. * the NAM ( using that as a dipole scenario... ), tends to carry on with a longer term NW bias and amplitude tendency - it may be it's non-hydrostatic/ in situ pseudo adiabatic management offering nuanced additional latent heat feeds into roll out ridges... blah blah...That forces backward and it curls more NW with no compunctions in achieving majestic storm intensity whle doing so, viola! Storm blossome 20" totals in a "very realistic" 4 hour span ... * I think a compromise may be in order. * As an ongoing 'reasonable'/consistently useful deterministic method: when one or the other major player guidance types does not budge, most of the ends results in those cases end up exhibiting vestiges ( more and less) of why that guidance did not budge... that's code for watch - the GFS won't be "completely" wrong here. And the fact of the matter is...it's not already ? * It's not - the hemisphere suffers from speed surplus in a progressive pattern which ( oddly enough ) ( as an aside...that garland of progressive rip is winding around underneath - at least as far as the GEFs have it - a strong negative AO phase ... Hmm, the two are in contention. It's interesting... ) ... So, anyway, for now I think there is enough evidence not to auto-toss the GFS when trying to be objective here. I would also question big totals...while not discounting the idea of a more significant impact, because there is till some uncertainty in the 'sensitivity' of the system morphology due to what is still presently relaying off the Pacific out west into the trough.

I don't know ... is there an official metrical sort of definition to event minor vs moderate vs major event ? I remember in the 1980s into the mid 1990s.. .back in TWC days of "weather cinema monopoly" ... and even the local TV weather personalities would refer to minor events at 2-4" .. .moderate as 4-6" and anything > 6 was major... Now, seems that's hugely contingent upon conditioning of culture/society ...sociologically adaptive - long words for the fact that we hand out 10" snow bombs like Pez candies since 2000 so ... Maybe that scale - subjective or not ... -- needs to be redressed. Haha... I think a "new scale" that is acclimated and more relative to modernity at present, might be anything 3" has to be achieved before entrance into the minor lounge. Say 3-5" is a minor event... 6-10" is a moderate event... and > 10 is major. It's not just snow board climate and acclimation, either... Tech in snow removal and maintenance makes those lower values sort of outmoded - so there's a practical angle on this too. I have seen 14" of snow between 1am and 2 pm more than just a couple of times since 2000, and was able to drive around on fairly communicable roadways ... and other traffic day in the lifing it -

Yup! - boom I can see you and et al were on to this facet overnight so no need to get into large vs smaller scale destructive interference sermons, ... but as I was cursory evaluating the guidance, overnight ... ..As far as this social media/public depot goes...there has been a tendency to ignore and/or not consider either way, exactly "why" the GFS was doing what it has been ...In lieu of chasing turns of phrase that protect the heavier snow chances and/or chastising it for being less entertaining - Lol... There was a nuanced ...I wouldn't call it 'nod' so much as a 'hm...' behind pursed lips look over at the GFS by the other guidance... That ICON ( which I still am uneasy and lack personal confidence in using due to ( lack of experience + it's C- handling on the last ...)/2 ) , really tried pretty hard to show the wave damping that the GFS has been insisting, as being more neggie interfering.. In fact, both runs now dampen our beloved S/W spacing to nothing S of Maritimes - someone post yesterday some excerpt taking from somewhere else .. how this was a scenario where the whole structure was "...increasing in strength so that is why the GFS was wrong" ...uh no.. Even the Euro was normalizing that wave down leaving...I think there's a lot of invention of plausibility and that we suffer fake news in here just that same ... Lol again... Anyway, all guidance at this point have a goodly mass of isohypses impinging/bullying into the backside, back through the mid lat's of Apallachia ... into Thursday and even Friday. You know...if that gets a bit more ( and several GEFs members are already flagging this ...), we end up with some kind of 800 to 700 mb easterly jet that stays sort of in position post this thing's eject seaward. Even if weak sauce, it's doing so in a saturated or near saturable column... Could be good for a band or two or broken patches of on-going Currier&Ives holiday parade detritus ... I disagree with the Euro and GGEM that the pattern goes banal and uninspired afterword. It seems the model battle is really that these two higher resolution Global numerical solutions are consummately attempting to offset the sped up Hemisphere anywhere beyond 4 days... I think the 4-D variable system/smoothing is a brilliant concept but it's outmoded in a hurried environment that is proving even chanllenging to the teleconnector statistics - the wave spacing is adaptive to the faster flows and it's sort of taking relative EPO and NAO and PNA mode derivatives ...and allowing wrong weather to happen relative to each... I'm definitely seeing some weirdness in the tele signal --> verification tendencies as not behaving quite as tight and cuddly as decades ago... One reason for that is that the faster flow doesn't appear to allow, or situate patterns for long enough - the residences are moving on... and, lengthening R-waves cause them to "split" which also disrupts the mass continuity ...leading to unusual statistics... But I'm pretty sure you've stopped reading this by now so ...sorry -.. I only mention it because this thread technically did mention something could be in play late next weekend - Anyway, for those that are still reading, the short is that the GFS is probably not as off as it was meme'd to be over the last 30 hours since that one juggernaut solution the other day - when attitudes toward it were "surprisingly better" - gee... I suspect the compromise is in order, until this immediate 12z run ...18z, and 00z are absorbed into the processing - there is still wind momentum in the mid troposphere feeding off the Pacific ...so just because the trough isohypsotic nadir is nearing Vegas, it's still getting fire hosed into the backside...and probably safest course of least embarrassment regret until more of that is actually sampled... Hell, for all we know, ...the 12z runs suddenly help enthusiast - ... I almost/also wonder if the wave mechanics causing that sag Thu/Fri lag ...might also be over assimilated? In same vein ...it could prove under assimilated... and then we got a problem...

? ...uh, no -

Yeah I’m not feeling that either frankly I’m thinking 6 to 10 for now ... lollipop for teens under impossible to predict meso axis’. Option for a more robust when the relay continues to succeed and I don’t think these meso versions going so significant here as the relay gets started is mere coincidence. You know the northside ens/model smear usually does not end well for S outliers. Just Sayin. ...If the relay comes in weak sauce then the GFS gets lucky for lack of better word.

It’s basically like that first superman movie from 1977… Where he flies around the planet like so fast that he approaches the speed of light ? GFS is trying to do something similar with every feature it detects ... tries to take it from that position 90 times around the planet before the next cycle comes out…

Know what would be kind of funny or interesting…? Is if the GFS never saw it – like… Even in now casting it comes out with that model run and it still has that painted like that when it’s snowing ass plus plus almost to Rutland Vermont I wonder if that’s ever happened

The whole world has gone mad… It’s like even some government and officials and scientists seem to bias when not swept away by the e-psychotropic culture. They’re taking these just climate disproportionate absurd numbers and running to the hysteria bank with ‘em. I mean you’re not gonna get 20 to 23 inches of snow spread out over that vast of a pan dimensional area from a middling mechanics storm I’m sorry you might get an excessive total close to 18 out of a couple of meso nugget thunder snows in there I don’t know but you’re not getting the entire interior of Massachusetts under a glacier like that from this… … Unless it like slows down stalls and gets a little bit deeper and cranks in CCB for an additional 6 to 9 hours. Again 18 inches in a narrow isolated band maybe that’s the most likely solution not throwing up plausibilities for ratings

You know it be funny… It comes in so wack that it actually ends up going all west of us lol

Yeah...I mentioned this a couple hours ago so sorry if it's been seen already but, this relay off the Pacific isn't coming in a slug of wind max...the axis of the trough is well inland, and there are still 90kt wind flags stabbing into the western side of the trough, so it's got a bit of lag jet mechanics feeding in.. That might impose additional morphologies in the runs -

I'd lop the top 1/3rd off those ... but.. that's still a major event - probably doesn't mean much to a civility, no -

For concept/philosophy I'm actually intrigued by whatever the Monday system does ... It's contribution to a 50/50 construct has been noted ... but not for that reason. The N/stream is a wild card both tomorrow and Wednesday ... If the NAM is right about its NW positions/translation axis of this first system this week, the 'synoptic conveyor' hasn't really changed or entered a pattern modality. The next may obey a similar instruction as it is passing thru the same scaffold synopstics.. Both systems are really in the same PNAP orientation ... I still believe/think that in this particular circumstance(s) this week, proper sampling offer subtle influence flip regions into more contention across narrowed corridors...so a slightly increased potency in wave mechanics outta the E Pac is likely to mean a quasi-Miller B scooting 150 vs 75 ME SE of ISP and in a fast atmosphere that's really 2" versus about 9 at Worcester ( or more meso band depending)... But, as said ..that's a general sort of philosophical rule if you will - if the relay comes in more powerful it's going to torque the flow into more S/W roll out ridging and this thing'll likely end up both slightly slower and turning Polarward leaving the EC at more angle -... and we're getting more CCB expansion in that case.

The PNA being neutral with an - in process - negatively escaping NAO ( ends up +1 and change by D7!) ...is pretty damn indicative of a longitudinally 'stretched' field and the GFS ..too much? Here's the problem with determinism in summary ( from me ): 1 ... the GFS has a W-E bias as a base-line model problem ...and in a pattern that is in fact, biased in that regard ... that, for lack of better word might be "enabling" the GFS - and it's thus too much. I suspect it is over doing the west east latitude bottling of this system; which it could still be right if the next 18 or so hours relay paltry momentum off the Pac... 2 ... the sensitivity for this particular system appears to be mainly in situ to the S/W mechanics, itself... Assuming that we are not ( and it seems likely we won't at this time ) be getting much positive/constructive larger scaled pattern feed back, due to the flat PNAP structure of the flow...that leaves the S/W itself. If it comes in stronger...it will roll-out S/W ridging in nuanced quantities...but that would transitively mean a N totality of events in that case. The confluence and attending high are presently holding proxy on the depiction from the GFS but ...meaningless if the GFS native W-E bias happens to not see the real strength of the wave mechanics because of ... improficient assimilation - I've been saying all along, this entire scenario is unusually susceptible to subtle and nuanced variance... 3 to 5 kts in the wind core could mean a lot .. The other aspect, on #2 abv... I am noticing that the 500 mb wind max is actually coming of in a lag feed - it's not coming into the west like a slug... Such that we started pulling the wind momentum into the grids on the 18z ( where available...) but you look closely...the full/total momentum of the wave isn't fully absorbed until 12z tomorrow... As this relays in that time, cycles "might" alter. ... Anyway, I think

Yup ... coastal storms

18z GFS boob range unloads that interior NW territory crying hell and drills it at us

Code for ‘... ignore the piece of shitness in lieu of our dazzling parameterization’

So... some "lensing" and usage filtration going on ...lol - ... late to the morning party. I wonder if anyone's posted the least snow fall total map presently offered regarding this event ...doing so with the same zeal and attitude of joy - ...yeah right. Lol I was not personally impressed by the 00z suite in the handling of the Atlantic total pattern ... It's almost more in the 'complexion' of it - its hard to pick a discrete feature to demo this but it just sort of reverted by "attitude" toward a faster look ?? The 50/50 appears in the 00z Euro still, but it seem to be like... 4 deg of latitude more progressive so..noise? perhaps.. .but, I the idea here was that the 'noise' should sound like going the other direction. And I don't see a lot of -NAO migration in the 00z suite regardless of model camp, either. It seems yesterday's panache in that regard was not carried over so much into the 00z run - ... Fwiw, the 00z GEFs tele did also back off the -AO heading later in the week, and the NAO is technically positive albeit nearly neutral, along it's prognostic curve...so, again - we pick and chose the products we use at own risk I suppose... Be that as it may, ...the system for late Wednesday doesn't necessarily have to have a slowing/back-log exertion from the a retrograde Atl tendency... To reiterate last night .. if the PNA --> PNAP nuance a better post ridge bulge in the west, than it can amp and slow a little form the opposing direction...etc.. Regardless of these plausible modulators ...it's middling impact fast mover. I see it coming in like a wall 10 pm CT to 1am ASH and leaving by 10 to 12Z CT and mid morning up this way... It's like middle ground needle threading - there's some interpretation variance on what "needle threading" means ( apparently ..). It's subjective anyway... but to me, it has always meant narrow latitude of impact, ...not really much else. But usually, in fast flows... because the 'narrowing' and 'why' the flow is fast tend to be rooted in the same biases. Such that 20 miles on the N edge of storm output means you're on the in or the out. Dim sun to substantive accumulations over a short distance. So on a mid range chart, you're looking at a rifle shot at 400 m and trying to hit your city, through the threads of your sight-scope. . pilin' on metaphors... Storms that slow down get more 'circular' in geometrical circumvallate and that's why they are "bigger"... I see this as having some of that needling, but sort of bigger hybrid version ... It is a fast mover - and it is moving through some compression in the heights... I don't see much evidence of "slowing down" - not sure where people are seeing that in any operational model.

Cautionary noted: one needs to consider climate change unfortunately... The ambient Terran troposphere holds more water vapor at a given temperature than it did in 1930-1931. Even at decimals ..this has a tendency to "synergistically" result in higher individual deposition extremes...but also, maintenance precipitation events are also routinely delivery more in recent modernity. This is/was both modeled by climate prognostic efforts, and is also empirical/verifying. Having said that, that doesn't/won't/shouldn't be accountable in a particular anomaly at PHL, no .. .there could certainlyresult 13" of snow in a La Nina ... regardless of era. But, the likeliness of it happening now given sufficient cold at/while other analog values, is greater due to increasing ambient moisture in situ to atmospheric events.

My guess is the GFS isn’t representing the slowing Atl pattern pretty much at all

Monday thermal layout hasn’t really looked conducive … marginal tho This is almost bulging back north as a pseudo- ANA and cold advection hasn’t really had time to get in

Well regardless of whatever happens with ptype ... that is a beautiful rotation of that 500 mill bar structure/correction