Typhoon Tip

Wow! Check out PHL's QPF column in the NAM FOUS grid: PHL//948045 00797 130000 73231813 IPT//926032 00000 143302 71201610 06001637144 01197 111006 74281913 06001705737 -0797 121802 73251710 12016897461 04698 100506 74231913 12002715757 -2597 111902 74251711 18116999674 55601 103120 75211713 18000926751 00598 121901 73221711 24454999756 71899 103016 74201713 24000968448 00098 133102 72201711 30230999651 11599 113014 72211812 30003677056 02897 113405 74261711 36045928054 03098 102713 71211913 36003707159 01197 102906 74251812 42002938858 -6401 102818 70201812 42003848366 02097 093009 73221711 48021989761 06599 102318 72201712 48003947749 02698 093112 73211811 54063748048 01296 092412 75271913 54007748028 00597 093012 75251812 60007675922 -1795 102610 7729221

Agree ... and part of that 'strength' is size. Obviously, smaller total ISE entities will succumb to weakening forces faster than those with more ISE - there's just more momentum in the large -sized scenarios. Henri isn't 'big' in that sense. I think the low level soundings between the Gulf interface and the south coast might be an interesting study if/when then compared to the wind realization down to buoy towers then subsequently whatever comes on land. I wonder if a smaller ISE may end up lifting the cyclostrophic motion above the stabled cool of that zone of oceanic boundary layer - but again, if the sounding is not representative, maybe not either. Interesting.

I almost wonder if it's regional? When I moved to this area of the country back in 1984 ... I was amazed at how often "black outs" - they used to be called .. - were here, compared to those earlier years of my fledgling life back in Michigan. Not saying Michigan is structurally more sound ...but, the power only 'pulsed' on and off during strobe lighting severe thunder, and only one other time did I remember Kalamazoo's grid going down ... I'm not claiming they don't have fragility - just from what I can recall. But it's like once a year or more around here. I wonder why that is - Sometimes we'll get a 'Cane, or a severe ice storm... or a really weird October snow on oak-leafed sag over power lines ( kind of give that one a pass), and we talk about "pruning" so it won't be as bad on the next one. But, powers out again ...some way, some how. So much for pruning. I mean, it's all fragile when you think about it. Carrington event would be a hoot -

You're emotion, period. And, you're interpretation is wrong - I said "don't take this seriously" at several times man - Secondly, if you don't believe that incorporated media hedges for affect and impression and ratings, ...mm that's oddly naive for this side of history. I was also careful to parse out NHC as not part of that. No, you don' like me and never have since I call you out as a d!ckhead several years ago and frankly, this sort of disrespect that you break down and leak toward people proves that your a toxic personality - probably a lot like me, actually, but for different reason HAHAHA. Look I don't care. go f urself

You seem to have a learning disability - or perhaps a histrionic disorder which over a dacade of on and off exposure to your jest really evinces this is your problem. When it comes to comprehension. You miss interpret sardonics/sarcasm and drool cynicism as literal, and take things to a distraction because you merely don't like what you read - miss the point. So .. no, I will not shut the f up based upon your limitations. Sorry. You are more than welcome not to read, block me, or log off. Do what you want. I think it would be easier to lighten up.

Certainly is fun to watch -

That's exactly what I was thinking Scott yeah. I mean they're adding 5 mph to get the hurricane sash on this thing - okay. But I almost wonder if that's more ( you know ) part of the NHC's PR jolt to a distracted thankless population that doesn't deserve their service... Seriously though, the so-so look at satellite: it is an interesting coincidence with some guidance trending back E. Internal monologue was thinking that may be because it is shallower and so not as deeply/fully integrated into the U/A circulation.

Yeah... the NHC agenda is entirely disconnected and not apart of the IMC ( industrial media complex) - lol. I am not impugning NHC at all. In fact, their hands are cuffed -wtf are they supposed to do. They are charged with informing of these sort of calamities to a society with dimmed hearing because the din of pop cultural stimulus has it that no one can really hear the "urgency" if they are even looking. So yeah, sit and wait and ... add 5 mph so that hurricane can take the podium and the flashing lights and "Twits" in the audience will look up from their iPhone - proverbially speaking. I wish some RECON pilot would spill the 'soft conspiracy' that they are routinely phoning in 70 and getting 80 out of NHC's decision makers but, that's sci-fi paranoid talk... ( seriously, don't take that j/k) anyway, the IMC is purely about money and needs some sort of non competitive but financed ( somehow ) media alternative - such that people can choose from it, or CNN/FOX/ABC/NBC/CBS fab five of marketing stimulus oil for lubing their Machiavellian economic engine.

Uh... if so, I'd like to see their database because the Euro "genome" sucks major donkey balls with tropical genesis/physics, always late to the party, and then that of course is observable out here as user community, when it subsequently can't really "see" it in future charts as a result of that - Bottom line, existentially the op and mean are not really 'better' in the tropics - but don't quote me ... The EPS is superior to the GFS above tropical phenomenon at most scales. The operational has it's own idiosyncrasies, particularly beyond D4.5 ... by in the early mid range, in my experience it is more reliable than the GFS. But I would consider the consensus of all products not including the Euro, before the Euro/EPS, when it comes to tropical handling. You know, ...as an afterthought, it may be a 'morphology of usefulness' - now that Henri is entangled in the larger synoptic conductors, suddenly the EPS "gets" to be more right LOL

Nick's right to point out that the track guidance is actually NHC's at this point - thanks Nick, I was not aware when I was a snarking LOL. However, the essence of what I was saying is true - media sources do 'hedge' for impressions and I hate it - What is interesting is that they, NHC, appear to be aligning their "consensus" with EPS almost like cut-and-paste. The GEFs don't look that way??

Yeah... the last 12 pages and all that.. I just remember a TS landfalling and weakening smear through the area last year, and it was S winds gusting in squally rains for a couple of hours ..even up here along Rt 2 in N-NE Massachusetts... It ended abruptly and the sun came out ..with the soothing tropical sort of ointment air you get when it gets sort of calmer with more gentler wind gusts after the primitive cool boundary of the underbelly brings in clearing rather abruptly. How could I resist! Perfect cycling... just some wet roads but whatever. Unfortunately, the bike path had a felled large limb if not tree every mile or so along the entire 12. It was a pain in the ass. Power was also out along some adjacent roads I could use as go-arounds, because traffic lights were off or blinking from battery. It was weird, I thought, " ..The winds did not seem really quite that bad... I remember thunderstorms with stronger outflows" etc.. That was winds gusting to may 42 mph in about 2" of rain and some loosely bound rad-based tor warnings. Similar actually to the band that came through yesterday and brought the EOF to Clinton...etc...etc... It occurred to me then that although the entire cinema of it was a disappointing as an "entirely responsible intellect in storm enthusiasm" ( haha ), we cannot really down play 'threat' or negate it too far, just because it's not got the badge of hour Category. 50mph wind gusts in heavy rain and seasonally wet root balls can be hugely problematic. And, ironically ..this strength of TS probably brings a more prolific coverage/realization of tor warning rad trips and dangling ropes sawing off tree tops. There's still plenty to be "responsible" over -

It's comical how each forecasting source/geography is taking ownership of the track guidance. It's making me actually giggle. It's as though advertising the exciting strike zone as better in our store, competing for ratings has turned weather events into that faux panache of marketing tricks. All these offices ( media ) have software and skill to formulate their own graphics these days ... so, they plug the ensemble member into the graphics engine that is the most dystopian excitement for their own ratings? That's what it comes off as. I have not seen a concensus that supports that far West, and nothing about now cast evinces that as the most likely either. Possible, sure .. All there is, is a couple ensemble members from whichever lusty appeal doing that. The problem is a sociological one. Media has come to an understanding that there are no penalties for false impressions - the forgetfulness of feckless society becomes a marvelous buffer. However, there is huge huge pay-back dividends for getting it right if they roll dice on a scenario and it happens to come true. It's like all of corporate media engages in Bastardiism

They may all be tropical storm warnings by nightfall/overnight... (sarcasm)

Pleezy weezie with sugar on top ... the expression is "Bahama Blue" ...because it is derived for a pattern that is a transit of air from deep SW Atlantic Basin in a conveyor all the way up. The air mass does have the Bahama Blue quality to it - correct... Very pithy blue in between narrow turrets and probable bee-bee-shower pixels on rad soon enough... But this air is not originating from Bermuda. We very rarely get a parabolic conveyor from that region of the Sargasso sea. It's Bahama Blue.

No one's asking me but .. .I've never been a big fan of that for TC already engaging within a westerlies manifold/capture scenario. That is more evidence - per my own experience - for very big dawgs that have already established their garland subsidence ring, Usually higher cat 4 and 5 beasts. When these ilk then move N and tote their circumvallate with them, they may near fronts. The front may bow out ahead. Or, a capturing upper air troughs may hesitate ..Fuji Wara a little .. like the tug of moon forcing it's gravitational host planet into a wobble. Heh. But that sort of thing. Henri is a pallid over production of fantasy by picking and choosing which-ever model balances plausibility with best intensity - LOL. Slight of hand aside, it's just not strong and it's really too late. Now that it is moving N and entangled in the web of the ridge-trough path, these large planetary structures will subsume and - think limit- development in lieu of integration.

NAM grid sustains easterlies into Logan over 30 hours with 575 dm thickness. Odd

I don’t think those are eye features they look like hot towers

Probably limited band width to pay attention to this kind of thing but there is a signal for a heat wave next week-maybe the seasons last

Oh shit. Lol I was looking at Grace and I said that

A couple pages behind here but yeah… Henri looks nasty now

Lol ... like the electron double-slit paradox that behaves like the electron is trying to be evasive - maybe we should all collectively ignore the forecast right up through Worcester

oh I see - yeah... No in this case the shear is outflow from that convection and it is joining into the on-going circulation mode/anticyclonic rotation, and that "add in" may be belaying the environment from transitioning into a lowered shear, by prolonging the N-E impacting vectors.

that's been doing that all day ... That region immediately/adjacent and west of your circled annotation is probably dim sun over 15' seas.

This is an immensely complex course work to do so. Start with this ... with scientific thesaurus in tow where needed: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jlu0701.pdf The HC's northern boundary where it terminates into the westerlies is not fix boundary or 'curb' in free air either. It's really along where the gradient steepens, and the jets ( westerlies ) ablate past.. .It bulges, up then collapsing down ... over time, while the mean width appears to be growing since the hockey-stick era of CC really begin in the last 25 years... Anyway, the idea leveled a moment ago was speculative that now is one of those expanded bulge times... I mean how hard is that to guess, when the 582 is so far N and the 588 too... We are immersed in 575 thickness, with 85/75 Peruvian jungle air. It's not a huge leap to figure why a TC moving into this region would actually NOT encounter "colder" conditions than it is leaving - at least not cold enough to be a baroclinic/frontal genesis.

Not sure I know what you mean here ?