Typhoon Tip

yeah ... I still say there's too much amplitude/ zealous correction applied between the upper MW on D4 ...to what the Euro carries along D5 over the southern Lakes... Which then means it ends up with -3 SD along the S. coast of SNE - Which in itself is not unusual, but having that suspicious relay at mid range west of there .. It is a noted thing the Euro does around that temporal seam - roid rage. Also, the heights over the SE U.S. don't typically register that high when that sort of depth is issued at 40 N ... Red flags... I suggest modulating that toward an NJ model low and narrowing the corridor of impact - if there is any.. It is noted that the GFS just wants that as cold fropa - but..the GFS has an N/Stream speed bias too so ... basically, two forms of error bias vying for believability - lol

CNN takes 'Trumpism' incindiary rhetoric to degrees of immortality that Trump himself would be jealous of... with their headlining tactical fear mongering, and turn of phraseology ... but, this is still alarming without their assisting in one doomscrolling their web source for profit... The GL eco systems is on the verge because of this. There are a lot of aquatic species that need ice in their spawning cycle .. and it is complex. Like Whitefish, need shallows to ice over so their eggs are protected, ..then when the water warms in spring there is a normal algal bloom that the fish feed on... but if the water is outside of a range ( to warm in this case..), the algae doesn't bloom... and that particular chain of dependent biota collapses... This sort of pyramidal relationship is just one in a huge life web of the lakes ecology that is on the verge... Oh, and yeah - it is climate change proven

... mm hm, just say 'anything outdoors' I'd also add, 'biting' to that list - not only does it rhyme ( lol...) there's nothing more soothing when you are already irritated to the brink by 90/75 and it is THEN that the giant f'n horse fly knows to tunnel the back of your neck for oil -

I don't do dews too well ... I like following summer synoptic meteorology ... monitoring heat wave genesis this ... and albeit rarefied, convection that, when set up luck prevails ...etc. I enjoy the heat to a point, if it is dry-ish. I think of 86 with a decent breeze rustling the trees and swaying branches, with a DP of 52 ... utopia. Add DP to that? turns to hell on Earth very fast ... very small wiggle room ... Say 54 ... I think o 56 DP at any temperature above 85 as pushing it - almost no room for margin and it's sack sticker annoying.

Yeah, this was a razor cold layer/decoupling ...based - no doubt - on the lay into the overnight with such low DPs... Because the FOUS grid had T1s at ALB-LGA-BOS all like +5 overnight...so... not sure what MOS actually had, but that +5 is the synoptic low and we obviously went lower than 40 for a low. No real warmth in the guidance overnight until the end of April - Not sure I buy that, even removing the hyperbole. I don't believe that Euro solution will be very successful, given to what it has to work with up there in the flow ... circa D4/5 ... it is clearly taking an "impression" - more so - of a trough mechanics up there, and you can see it flipping D7 onward, it just all the sudden cores out this massive depth from 'not enough' kinematic insert from that D4/5 sourcing. So a little complex ...but in short ( and I know you didn't ask - just in general ...), it is unclear where the Euro get the power to to do that. I suspect it is the Euro's correction scheme at that range - their model does not make the application of the correction application very seamless - tends to 'flash' in... overly conserves what ever it is handling around D5 ..and gives it a mechanical boost. I was clicking through that and thinking, it's going to do it again and yup... historic low from a phantom dent in Alberta - The other aspect which is - I admit - a personal fan favorite is the "MIami Rule" ..there is a 590 dm height ridge spanning the skies of the Gulf to southern GA/Florida and the SW Atlantic Basin, on D4 ...and the Euro digs that out of nowhere trough power, into it... without demoing any shearing from compression and velocity that would certainly have to happen if the heights attempted to lower over top of that heat wall... I think there is going to be a wave there... but.. perhaps a NJ model reduction would be a decent compromise... I don't buy the juggernaut for all those reasons intimated above.

Not very lol but the stagnating the warm front with no apparent fluid viscosity reason to stop it yet still stalling to warm front is annoying anytime of the year ... that is, for those of us who want spring and melting snow Pretty sure we are in the minority on that one Also it really is just Wednesday… That look probably bust Thursday out of pre frontal shits either way

Good point

… On a Southwest flow at all levels too. It’s always been one of my biggest mysteries about New England it just has warm frontal repellent ... It’s just hard to figure out what the resistance is there

It basically takes 30 hours to get a warm front through here

Better enjoy tomorrow… If the Nam’s right

This almost looks like the climate change footprint tho - like...in the absence of a very convincing forcing, .. the footprint is 30 years plus trend = 1 and change above normal ... The PWAT follows the warmer atmosphere on the right..

1888 was a hugely spring assisted event... I've heard some 'reconstructed'/reanalysis type debates on that, that it was a typical "weak" spring cut-off, that happened to get a fluke anomaly from the polar stream dumped into... It does sort of make sense ... the layout had that weird "apparent" N-S oriented front, as though the previous day's boundary was yanked back west as the -theoretical - polar loading over PA dumped in and veered the flow around aloft. It was rotted polar air type snow at Worcester, while it was back N at 50mph in talcum powder down the Housatonic - Places in lower Manhattan had icicles going sideways off of objects, owing to the "Mammoth freeze" type rates of the setting... Something like 40 F lashing rains to 19 F choke snow inside of an hour might be extraordinarily rare say - ... But that NW CT to Capital District snow totaling actually was powder on the west side of said N-S running boundary, so 1888 definitely had a cold/ ratio assist in that heavier zone.. I definitely agree there is some sort of asymptotic aspect ( 'asymmetric' positive returns) ...as we near the upper PWAT storage/dynamics of events. They "need" more cold to realize, and as it nears the threshold where that is requiring a polar direct assist, creates a kind of catch-22... That means we induce more gradient to the systems surroundings and that starts moving things along. At which point there is a reduction in positive returns. But you this .. there's no like 'curbs' in free space and air... it's just matter of return rates... Like, it maybe take 10,000 or whatever years to get that coveted 5.5" liquid to be all snow at 11:1 ...then also get the 12" of 20:1 frosting ... LOL

Right ...come hell or high water ... something will make sure we packing pellet a trace from an overzealous virga exploded cumulus cloud over Logan on May 2nd no less - call it the, "Great Just Because Someone Made The Impertinent Suggestion That It Won't Snow For 8.5 Months" storm -

I had a buddy that toured the station back in '95 I think it was, and he told me that when he walked into the studio and Mark wheeled around in his chair, he had that look, but was wearing Hawaiian patterned shorts, and the 'cast was waste up - and while they were there...he did the report like that. And his demeanor was otherwise like a burn-out ... 'Yo dudes, wuz up' lol I could see that with that mullet look. Thing I remember about that storm ...among many aspect, is that while it was happening ...knowing that Wed had that temp recovery look to it. That was up in my UML weather lab days... I think it nudged 60 the end of the week. It was like a cocoon storm - hiding from the inevitability of spring inside a transient winter fantasy... I mean by then my gears are switched normally? And I prefer not - but I will play the hypocrisy card if the situation warrants and that one more than did, and so once inside the bubble ... knowing how short lived that would be kind of tainted that. But, like we've said...those diabatically assisted spring deals... I don't think you can get that in DJF? Just like we've often mused 'what might have been,' of that 1992 December legend ... I don't think Brockton Mass can get 5.5" of rain and then a foot of snow and have that been ALL snow - I dunno... If it did, that would have been 50" to 60" at/of 10::1 ... I wonder if they'd still be without power. No sea level storm has ever done that and I wonder if colder profiles - it makes some physical sense to think that cold holds less water so ... you may not geophysically be able to do it.

Lol... yeah, just title the thread, ...while we're at it

I really don't wish to be all that engaged in any drought discussion ... However, just as an observation and experience: I feel the next 3 ...maybe 4 weeks will be key in setting us up the rest of the way this summer - unless we do like a June 1998 thing.. The total soil moisture and longer term moisture deficits states are crucial to seasonal resilience. When there is an abundance of arlier/warmer spring conditions , sans "April showers" normal, that climate leads to top layer issues accelerating ... pretty fast as early as late May per my own experience. April rain is more than an affectation... Sometimes this happens with earlier warmth prior to continental green up - green up adds atmospheric moisture, clouds and thunder follow were moisture is present. Pretty easy arithmetic there... But when desiccation abounds prior to green up, this has a nasty negative feed-back on soil moisture ...setting the gears toward a beige lawn by the 4th of the July, as well as crop/gardening problems.. But this is no reasons to play volleyball with U.S. DS charts all summer long either.. Obviously, 70/ 25 dp ...sucks water out of anything - including the earth... This can happen prior to reservoir depletion, which res level reduction doesn't kick in - in my own experience - until August, provided the previous year was sufficiently wet to get them at capacity prior to the onset of the warm spring in question. Basically ...there is a lot of lag facets to this hydro shit. We don't have a warm spring .... yet. What we have is the expectation of one, with perhaps 2 days and counting - if we negate the lows last night and priors... These diurnal averaging policies do a warm pattern a disservice at this time of year. But, it can be warm, we just need the anti-stein events to punctuate over the course of these 3 or 4 weeks

This could be truly hot summer ... wow - the lower RH free rise variety -

I remember clearly last week when we were scoping out this nape pattern ...the Euro's 2-meter temps were consummately in the 50s ... We've been 62 to 67 over patios, driveways and downtown thoroughfares this whole go and will remain so.. Anyway, given the synoptic set up of parameters and evolution by the Euro, it's 72 2-meter could also error that much Thurs -

It does, Kev - yup.. That 00z Euro run has over-performing 2-m written all over it. It's got that surged warm-sector look, where the 10C 850 isotherm gets kissed on the coarser charts ( PSU ) by the +12C running up parallel and very close to the 10 C isotherm, packed in ... With multiple pressure lines situated not hugely close but close enough, it's like the perfect SW flow flag wobbling to mix the atmosphere too. 850 mb may actually be the boundary layer depth. That's code for maximizing the +12C down to the surface, then including the 2-m slope part of the sounding? Mm yeah probably puts up an 82 F at BDL if that model and that look for Thursday ~ 21Z is precisely correct, which ...there are other models. But the Euro being inside of 4 days on that? heh... good luck. .. Either way, I'd hit that mid 70s that day for a good chunk of everywhere S of Albany to Brian.

What an amazing correction for PF to Phinney land on this GFS run.. . Puts a band of heavy snow QPF for 9 hours through that corridor as near as 108 hours...after days of runs that trended into southern Canada too - haha...

In a sense if it : ...it's trying to offer a spring like blue-bomb potential, but it is doing it along a CC climate adjusted N latitude. ...Miller B's from Upstate NY to Gray Maine/GOM is fun for Montreal I guess... That's what the GFS appears to be after - but Climate Change thing is half-hearted snark too. But forgetting that humar, the V16 and the operational runs have been displacing a spring event N of typology for whatever reason. The problem I have with both are still what I pointed out yesterday - seeing as people give a shit what I think...haha. Whatever, read this don't read this: The Euro over amps, as a flash correction it applies going from mid to extended range. This feature looks suspiciously like it is doing that ... It takes what looks more like a negative node between the ridge signatures ( day 5) ...and converts it into hemispheric torsional presence .. 'why'? It really gives it a structural sort of curvature boost by the D6 to 7 relay going from the upper MW to the OV/90W region. Where then of course it has all that structure going into D8 ..boom! But it may all be fabrication over the previous 40 hours ...setting that into motion and as an aside, I think that is EURO product problem that may be more endemic to just eastern N/A due to our continental/PNAP feed-back... It positively interferes with their famed systemic 4-D variable ..extra double top secret correction scheme. That's why those of us over here in the U.S. know to be incredulous about the "dreaded D8 Euro" bombs. ( the same group that seems to always forget that when the chart comes out of course haha) The GFS has a problem on balance of being too cold on the polar side of the westerly(s) jets ... It's probably got ongoing dynamics problems because all graduates since 2000 achievement factulties are scaffolded by a combination of iPhone look ups and cheating on exams... So, whatever their charge, their razor sharp geophysical understanding causes too much height falls in the vicinity jet maxes .. Whereby it then it too ends up with a self-manufactured surplus of cold heights... --> too much gradient --> speeds up the flow --> progressive bias results. Seriously... because of its bias, at this time of year that particular model will be badder - heh... I mean spring's modulate baroclinic gradient... filing cold ..etc... It fighting that, nutating away from seasonal progression in lieu of its ongoing biased gradient offset. But here's the insidious thing - the HC shit appears to imposing more gradient in the seasonal means, anyway... So, this bias of the GFS cluster is operating in an enabling sort of system... In other words, the flow is fast anyway and has verified that way... dedacal at lengths at this point, too. ENSO warm...cool... nada ...didn't matter. The telecon layout from the GEFs actually signals a cut-off 'bowling ball' or 1997 look though. So, ...these cons above are not targeted at whether a system will be there to monitor - I think the signal stands for its self in that regard. But how/what to suspect of those models in that time range.

Two aspects stuck out to me on that 25 mile ride yesterday ... The still waters of the regional ponds and lakes were like mirrors. That's unusual in our climate moving through mid to late afternoon. The diurnal solar hammer usually sends enough BL cycling vibrations to stir up at least ripplet shimmering but they were totally smooth reflectors. The other aspect is that despite taking out the Rockhopper ... you could hear their horny song penetrte the knob whir of that bike's tire type. I remember thinking about momentarily weird ironies, of riding a Rockhopper, with that happening... which compares an effect of the Rockhopper against an organism that prefers to hop along on rocks. lol

It's actually a monthly late, while also being extreme - both distinctions.. interesting. Typical - have fam members that are heavily into the maple - this kicks in around Feb 20 each year up along and N of Rt 2's inland climate zone, where it's 49/24 type stuff. This year we those cold snaps that seem to belay matters ... But here's the thing that makes this interesting is that pure statistics were not unusually cold for Feb at most major climate sites. HFD was -1, but ORH/Logan were both modestly positive by decimals... So it's like paradoxical in that sense - somehow achieving normal February and the foliage believing it was too soon to be normal. Looking at the dailies, it appears the numbers are classically lying about what took place, ...lost in averaging the low temperature may be pulling much of the weight there. Anyway, they don't typically have to wait until the end of March and/or diurnal spread as large as 65/24 to get the sap spigots running.

This is true ( bold ..) I've been largely staying out of it - frankly, because I'm being douchy and don't want it. LOL But here's the thing - objectively: - All the deterministic models, regardless of which have been routinely over-amplifying everything their physics see at those longer leads.. They may be all doing so for their own reasons. It seems the Euro takes whatever it's handling at D4 and adds a third more amplitude to it on D7 ... Then, spends the next 3 cycles eroding it back. The GFS on the other hand as an N/stream hemispheric monster intent ..services troughs with too much feed-back, and that perhaps is two different reasons those models end up with too much D8 amplitudes... Not sure. - Seasonality is a factor. If correcting for Euro flash correction scheme adding too much, and assume the GFS is a "Good For Shit" model because they keep f'ing "upgrading" it to an ever worse propensity to 'hide global warming' ... ( kidding out of frustrating ), the sun/hemispheric changes can at time un-seat these amplitude looks for that reason alone. I have seen countless large modeled trough closures end up cirrus whirls for having the models maintain too much deep layer baroclinic parametrics ...it's like they don't integrate the solar modulation aspect properly most of the time in Springs. But, big nasty cold events do happen through April... It seems to be timing is crucial in getting the deeds down; the cold insert needs to happen sort in a critical window, or the whole structure falls victim - we're in that time of year after the Equinox... Deterministically ...these are offsets. In favor? The NAO is rising as the PNA is showing a couple of camel bumps out there. That is actually a likeable telecon layout. The flow wants to lift in latitude, but the PNA may deposit meaningful wave in there... and that may close it off. Come to think of it I actually mentioned that to PhineasC a few nights ago in passing ...so it's been sort of out there -

- that's funny ...I forgot about that old index finger rule. right - Mt Washington We used to employ that down here actually, for whether 101 has a shot at Logan - I mean ... barring other bs like cloud timing and wind direction, MWN needs to be about 72 F at dawn MWN - I 'think' it was something like this. There's others... Like, you look for 22 kts 850 mb from S as to whether the 32 F penetrates the interior down here in SNE in SWFE' or icing scenarios.... That's from the old days of Taunton NWS back in Walter's late 1980s ... But it works in general whenever there's denser air mass lodged E of the Berks and Whites ..- there's probably exceptions but just as a general rule. S at 25 kts at 850 mb and no matter what, icing ends... 21 kts, they're extending advisories because it lingering longer... Or, BD air masses gobble up the extra day and tediously aggravate because people were told the warm front would blast back through.. lol