Typhoon Tip

... in here? that question is equivalent to rollin up to a crack house and asking the people inside the crack house if they'd mind not actually doing the crack ...

folks ... don't get confused. we're not discussing 'getting an event' out of 1/6 ... we're strictly identifying limitations ( actually..) and therein, how longs shots might overcome. there's difference there

saw that ... in fact, it occurred to me that this run probably already would have come wholesale nw enough to strike but that feature is actually imposing a bit/neg interfering

i would have beaten you with this post timing if it were not for my being too verbose like Ray was sayin' lol

for what it's worth the 12z icon has made a substantial move, in both depth/potency off the mid atl, but bumping nw too, wrt to jan 6. it ultimately still misses, but that is precariously close! if the next run were to incrementally do the same, it would like be bring an even to ct/ri/se-e ma.. 'nj model low' you can see some delicate albeit crucial difference in the total circulation components beween the nao domain, to n of lake superior ... that region is causing less suppression of confluence/def axis in this run... it's kind of fortuitous because it's exemplifying what scott and i were just musing

i never said it was coming n just outlining what the guidance is showing over the last hour's worth of personal content... i honestly have not really contributed anything about jan 6 in week's worth of this engagement. unless you mean you don't agree with the consensus? to which i'm not even sure what that is.

i'm only posting this because no one else is brave enough to run out into the open while snarkers are waiting with their machine guns loaded with bun emojis ... i have no dignity left to protect - but, the actual spread here is getting sort of lost in the fact that the -nao related trough node e of the continent is washing the medium. if you loop this though at pivotal, you can see that there is a reasonable storm signal moving up s of long island toward this period of time, and then some of these individual members are fairly deep (resulting) and probably close enough to impact southern and eastern regions. it think the presence in the ensemble mean is getting obscured a little

right .. i'd add, at this time though. just sayn' you know, very early jan 1996 the then avn rolled in off the difax with that sort of cut off look on the n and nw out there at a 108 hrs - if memory serves, that's about as far as it went out in time; it was like the short range/higher res version of the mrf. i loved those days of charts actually ...different discussion. i remember speaking to harvey about that, in the studio down at channel 7 ... my friend who had interned with him got me a chance to tour the studio. i scored an intern op of my own ( i suspect- ) because it cited reasons why i thought the deformation axis was destined to tilt up enough to allow the cyclone to impact from nyc to bos - a discussion point that i'm sure would have been quite bun-worthy in this social media lol. i was like on cloud nine ( pun at least serviceable there - ) for the encounter, getting to talk in my hypothetical short-comings with a theoretical giant. but the visit went down super. so toward the end he asked me what i was doing for my internship for that ensuing spring semester. gulp. that's how i got in - guess he liked my presentation. we all know what happened... the deformation axis shifted nw in the last 48 hours and brought the goodies to sne. the -nao was antecedent to that period, too. obviously, back then .. .the models were not going to be very good at nao handling, considering that we're here in the arrogant tech future and it's only incrementally better than totally sucking donkey dong if you ask me. i mean, yar it's better. but's still not quite capable of nailing def axis' placements down to 10 miles ( so to speak ) at this range of 7 days. so in either case.. .i feel the nao's real weight on suppression is probably negotiable until latter innings.

i've seen deformation axis so intense that milky sun goes to virga plume sky, to heavy snow in just 10 or so miles, extending along a line that's 400 mile long. on modeling, the less savvy observer tends to be too distracted by the storm on the map itself, and isn't paying enough attention. so it seems like it's just going to rotate on up and be fun

i want to start an extended lead -based thread for the 8/9/10 ..11 but i'm not sure we should drop the 6/7th and that one's going to be tricky as i was just mentioning to Will

i don't have access to any algorithmic -based graphics like nws or anything ... but imo from what i'm observing ( so taken fwiw ) the primary sensitivity for determining latitude wrt the 6/7th ( hell of a sentence here, haha) is the idiosyncratic handling of the nao. it's definitely a western limb variant for one. but that's a elephant ass trying to sit down on a trampoline. hell, it'd almost be better if the nao was a more neutral longitude/latitude node; i.e., not over the eastern canadian archipelago but more ne toward greenland. i would just suggest for people ( failing to influence anyway in here, i know - ) not to wave that one off because runs are limiting impact for at least 3 maybe even 4 days on that one. i mean you know this, but as i outlined yesterday, this is a 'sub-index scaled' system. think of that scale as eddies in a river, where the actual index scaled ones are the river itself. we're naturally more confident in where the river is going to be than we are where it's transporting it's intra mass field perturbations...

it's because nothing's changed in a week ( really ... ) since i/we first posted about it all. this manic-like behavior of needing model run to cinema some dopamine jerk ... is unfortunately not a physical force in the atmosphere that will create movies capable of appealing to that sickness. yeah, now that's funny!

definitely an inverted trough signal there

no ... more plasmoids sent here as reconnoiter sentinels prior to the invasion -

it's difficult to identify a larger order of mass field driven restoring in order to propagate a major through the field during that time. that unfortunately leaves it susceptible to smaller even nuanced suppression ( transitive forcing if you will ...) tendencies from the -d(nao); a deterministic feat that's hard to do the day before, let alone 8 days out there. as it sits right this now, while typing... the better aspect would be less -d(nao). the fact the models are tending to a s track may already be representative of these ideas above

1/2 is rain for sne .. .but, there's room/concern there for elevations of cne, with more column blue snow possibilities in maine 1/6 is a sub-index system .. i like to refer to those as maintenance events. as it leaves, the polar-arctic hybrid air floods in its wake, engulfing all of the np-gl-eventually ov and ma regions. that sets stage for the 8/9/10 arena ... 8/9/10 .. 11 still looms largely in the telecon/interpretation. this has been the case for a week now, with a very bright beacon. the recent operational gfs ( vastly too early to indict ...) runs have been oscillating between extraordinary solutions ... followed almost immediately upon the next run cycle, by almost nothing. this 12z run with a 990 mb closed sfc pressure contour that is the size of nearly tx, while at the same time ...essentially missing any event, is a ginormous warning flag for explosive potential. what i'm looking at in these operational runs is "too much of a good thing" you actually don't need 504 dm spv to subsume into the mid latitude flow in order to create something special. what's happening is that there is too much d(gz) between 40 N and the gom. that delta/excessive gradient is causing the s/stream s/w to rocket around the southern arc of the diving spv, at too fast of a rate ... so what ends up happening is that it outpaces - the prey runs faster than the predator. you can coherently see this slipping bipass between the s aspect ...out pacing the spv. the spv ends up deepening by non linear constructive feedback, with no help from cyclogen because the s stream trigger long gone. there are two competing cons trying to steal what is really just a fantastic opportunity. obviously, the winter enthusiasts among us with rather they both fail... but the first is, this tendency to over slope the heights in the mid latitude/velocity saturation thing is real. that's A. B, the models also have an amplitude bias in this d7-11 range. it's difficult to parse out if/and/or how much of either A or B is delimiting this thing... luckily for us, there is no real responsibility to correctness by any guidance beyond day 8 - it's really just a fun thing that we're even given those range. the telecon and the ensemble-based super synoptic indicators are really the most important aspect in that range.

yeah i know i've been waiting for that

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DEIg84BtTCs/?igsh=MTh3bGk3NWxra2RzOA==

GFS is distorting the meridian component of the amplitude because it ends up resolving so much speed into the individual s/w propagation movements thru the field thru that period - neg interference wrt to phasing aspects that situ 8/9/10 has a magnificent subsume variety phase potential otherwise.

Looks like there may be an early attempt at coalescencing on a low that passes over the Cape/islands.. this looks okay considering the path of jet max. the global position is okay but the left exit region of the acceleration aloft is east of their positions really - positions they're sort of 'getting away with' because we're eating cc shit on this one. cc/islands would probably be a good track for us in the interior, hfd to ash nh, 30 years ago but .. ha. we'll be 38 or so here in interior sne with 850s around -2c ... so darn close but likely too warm. I would still pay attention in cne and points NE up in Maine, however. in fact, 12z rgem along with very recent nams ( like 18z nams ..) are threatening a flash over around noon to 18z from the monads and ne looking. quick moving and again ...this was never a huge.

that 2000 year was an absolutely terrifying snow depth season over western ns and nf per a first hand account i had with a stranger. we missed the goat winter here by really what amounts to a geo-meteorological ch's distance that year. i recall either a storm or the one you were talking about.. but it bombed down to 943 mb about 300 mi e ...the western edge of a horrific ccb was like just over the eastern horizon by radar... and moved better than perfect for ns glacial death i was in a pub down on rt 20 in waltham one night in late february 2001 ... 'mad raven' of all times and places to happen to see a photo ( no kidding) some guy there who happened be visiting from ns he had a couple wallet photos he kept of that winter. the front of his house ... the snow depth musta been, i dunno 15 feet ? the entire facade entombed on both side with at least 8 foot of depth on the roof itself. the lights in the living room were like illuminated at the end of a white hallway

that whole period is really vulnerable through then .. this is like a first detection that’s drilled into enormous numerical instability … constructive interference; there’s likely to be let downs and let ups in ensuing model runs for awhile, but unless the over arcing modalities (+d(PNA)/-NAO ) go away … it is more likely there will be presentation on the map 8-11th

You’re late

Two.5 really but I see why with that look.

Eye candy art time