Typhoon Tip

I've been wondering something that only a dweeb like me probably would with my shimmering gallery in mediocrity for a life ... that while wild fires rage, and heat waves out shine even GW it seems ... nothing has really happened in the Caribbean and Gulf. That region - in that sense ... - has a surplus of stored potential energy. We have to keep the systems in equilibrium, or boats will eventually 'float through the air' and end up crushing a canal through the boat house rooves next to the marinas ... I think of the vastness of Earth's various natural Geological systems - to wit, the atmosphere is a part despite being air and above said ground .. - as kind of having a storm budget or climate. It's just that said 'climate' has never been codified. We only think of climate parameters as temperature, cloud vs sun days, mean wind ..etc. But, there is, in reality, a kind of statistical normal for all these events. Every region is assaulted ( or masturbated with ...depending on one's perspectives ) a certain number of snow storms or hurricanes, and if they do not get one, those governing physics that would normally cause them are like batteries left fully charged as crude metaphor. So a lot of unnecessary poetry to describe a post that could have simply read, "that region has stored energy so a big bomb in that region may result"

It's interesting to have these operational Global numerical models in principle if not detail, all agree on a mid range RI in the Gulf... That's an unusual and very specific collusion of modeling there Lol. I mean, they all cough the Caribbean invest through the Yuk. Channel... and then outta nowhere mid bathtub it goes from an inverted monsoonal dent in the pressure field, to too many isobars to count in 12 to 18 hours. I'd call that a Rapid Intensification. Albeit out in AI day-dreaming range, these disparate technologies appear to be in a state of "Inception" on that - ... Ah... maybe that means the region should be watched though?

Red Sox pitching sucks hog balls …

Yeah no shit. All home stations within five miles are 96 to 99% RH at 73 to 76. sack sticker airmass

Fact the matter is the summer got off to a really good start… Finally avoided a snow in May .. even started getting some warm days toward the end of the month and then of course June was very warm. . It’s just that most of August and definitely all of July was stolen from us so I don’t know C .. C+ summer

Seems like the back should break between D9 and 14 approximately …. Pretty good nexus of cooler teleconnectors out there and after that, the sun is just not the same in September - it’s like asking for a heat wave on April 6. It can happen but the return rate on that’s too rare to look for it. I think in 2014 or so we had a borderline heat wave in early September

Aside from fact that the GFS has been doing that since it’s genome transitioned from the MRF - regardless of season.

Isn't that the name of a bong brand ? - swore it was ...

Sad ... for the world, that's gotta be the end of the road for TRS - right? I mean, the man was 80 ( congrats! being in proximal to that life - ), and I'm pretty sure Jagger's 1028. Richards, as the joke meme goes is being propped up by who knows what .. I just don't see them really necessarily ... anyway, their music is older than 3/4 of the living population. I think Elton John did it the right way... He like announce retirement - does cameos and junkets and such... but it's less egregious to watch. You know, go out with a sense of dignity in a little bit of planned resolve. It is kind of painful to watch when aging celebrities "pretend" they are still pop-relevent. Maybe sad is a better word - but ... Watts was neither interested in celebrity, or casting delusions of grandeur - just speaking in general. Some actually know it ... sorta kid around with it. Like, I think it was Clint Eastwood? Not sure .. .but went something like, "I direct now because look at me - there's no way I could do the other thing" in a ha ha way. Heh, Rolling Stone: "What a drag it is getting old"

Red Sox seem to be fading ... They's dodging losing series by rain-outs/postponements and doing .500 b-ball against the likes of the Rangers'... It's funny how these things turned around. Yanks are where the Sox were a month ago... like literally switched -

It really is kind of cookie cutter conceptually obvious why that is... -NAO intrinsically means a 'curved' tendency to the flow structure of the hemisphere - think lowered AAM. That means mid levels tend to flow more along N-S trajectories, such that it is probabilistically unfavorable for any west moving system to make it the several thousand naut miles without a diving jet/aspect pulling it out ...etc. What is really wanted for an E coast and New England express is phase change in from +NAO to -NAO, over the western limb of the domain... right around as the system is nearing the outer Bahamas. But keeping in mind of course ...these are idealized models. I'm sure at some point in the last million years ..whenever inter-glacial periods had warm seasonal seas, there have been big bombs denuding Long Island in a +NAO ... just as well as one making it across the Basin in a predominantly -NAO regime. It's just a matter of "less likeliness" - not impossible.

88/73 not bad ... may ding 90 yet

Yup ... I noted the Euro nailed that from a previous run, when I saw that shot out

I'm seeing a tendency/ ...reticence in the guidance to develop anything very robustly until after D8 ..9 Meanwhile 98 L is impressive in higher res vis imagery, with clear mid level cyclonic motion to the general region, as well as occasionally revealing tigher llv whirl(s). It's not hard to sense there is shear stress from the E ..but I'm not sure that is the entire limiting factor in the nearer ( 2 -day) time frame, as the wave and attendant low pressure are presently carving their way through a fairly vivid presentation out of Wisc site/ SAL region, which can be seen here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time= Then... there is a general +OMEGA anomaly beginning ...or attempting to sweep throughout the Basin https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml I've seen TC survive those downward VP times before ... but usually they are further along in development and sort of carve their way through those two by just having cyclone-centric UVM that moats itself off/nucleated circulation ... like 'disconnected' from that particular larger scale limitation, once it is established. 98L isn't there, but ..it does have a couple days to get its act together before those VP's arrive. It's also possible that the VP layout itself could change. Either way, I suspect this is the reason the models developing stuff but really suppressing their strength during the period.

well played ... but unfortunately, this is a metaphysical approach - honestly...get with the program. lol

Nope ... because of Henri, you now have to wait 30 years. weeee

Tomorrow May sneak HIs that rival the highest we’ve seen this year. If it were a month ago I’d say slam dunk. AFD mentions needing adv Wed … NAM pushes hydrostatic hgts close to 580 DAM tomorrow. I realize the moisture content is right at the top of physics but the runs are insistent on open sky Bahama blues/sun. Tues 90/74 .. Wed 92/72.

Unsure where it gathered the polarward drift - I'd take that probably corrected SW of that position.

The one that just came off Africa was pretty evident as a player to me. TPC just decided to Invest on that. It's presently defined by decent cyclostrophic generalized motion in the vicinity of very cold cloud tops - two aspect the enthusiast likes to see collocated: cyclonic motion + cold cloud tops. And with robust regenerative convection. 97L I feel is the redder herring of the two. My experience over the recent years, those types of K.H. lop over gyres, such that this one is, tend to get picked up and developed by guidance over anxiously. They are also by proximity a bit close to SAL contamination, too. It is like they are large but lack coupling to the oceanic heat content. Nevertheless, they've upped to 40% on that in the mid range... I think "98 L"?, by virtue of being so far S and in a region of straight W-E apparent steering has the better environment. It's out-of-the-gate structure appears better as well. It is also deeper in the favorable U/A velocities anomaly region.

So here in Ayer ... no rotation was detectable to the unaided observer. That said, there is a butt-load of shear in the lower 0 to 5km troposphere. The scud fractals are moving pretty swiftly NW around and under the dark bellies of nimbus, with their broken partial glaciated tops are leaning NE. One can see that it wouldn't take much to spin any updraft suspended through that column Pretty classic low LCL over-lap with lower level directional shear environment out there.

I'm right here in Ayer ... Nimbus with fractal towers partially sundogged with trace glaciation over nimbus bottoms. Light right in high DP torridity - no ground truth or rotation at the moment but will keep eyes pealed

Curious ... does anyone have sat and rad coverage of that which hit Tennessee with flooding rains ? I was so caught in Henri I didn't even know that was happening. I don't know what day to even look for - ...I'm sure I can find but if anyone already has it -

Lol, to be fair ... I meant that as a droll tongue-in-cheek, more so than a declarative really - but yeah... the intuition is not so haha. You know, pine bows on camping trips are used as the most effective kindling in campfires for a reason .... HAHA

From that exchange ..you got, 'it's coming' lol... I know I know... Eventually, the end of the cosmos, 15 trillion years into the future ...will end too, and so too, will summer. Back here on Earth, I think we need 10 days ... sorta going along with Brian intimation there - Before that time, we may yet put up some heat in the books. The last cycles of the GFS were less emphatic, but the gist is still there. We probably segue this Henri eviscera into a couple of hot days ..then we fronta or BD hybrid back to seasonality toward the end of the week. That appears to roll out in the extended and another heat surge of unknown anomaly - that's sort of a "best laid plans" play-by-play for the next 10 days.

Queensryche ...wow - Quick search and they apparently, ' ...Continue to tour and record,' and their legacy is "1980 - present" ? (Course, Wiki page could have been composed by a fan ...) That must be the longest successfully operating "band-franchise," not suffering the cliche dramatic band split up in the history of that particular rock sub-genre, ever. I think I read somewhere that gold/and/or platinum VIP ranked pop-cultural bands seldom get longer then 5 years when the success confetti rains begin to fall before someone in the outfit O.D's, or has some other kind of Narcissistic meltdown, or Bi-Polar proof that creative genius is often couched in insanity. 1980 is 40 years ago... HEllo I never got into them.. That one song ..."Silent lucidity," a title that always sounded like an oxymoron to me, it always sparked images of stoned head bangers thinking they were being deep. Oh, I'm sure their swell, super smart artists. I have to admit though, just seeing the name, Queensryche ... it triggered one of those look off to the side stare in nostalgia moments. That song was on the radio - why do we remember moments that seem utterly in-germane? I've always mastered this ability. Couldn't garner a decent grade on an exam in college to save a life, but by gum ...back in 1996, this bloke had five slices of bologna on his sandwich for lunch. And so, I'm sitting there alone at the kitchen table, and I can still smell that generation's lingering life in the air of my grandfather's dilapidated house. My grandmother vanquished some five or six years earlier, and he was a "professional alcoholic being forced into retirement." Battle Creek Michigan. I was sent there by La Familia political pressure to custodian the place. This was while he encroached on the final curtain call, though we didn't know it at that time - denial..etc. That was when dinosaurs roamed the 1991. It was a lonely time... Michigan winters have a way of making one feel pretty isolated. And it's just dark. Between October and March it seems like the sun must rise at noon and its still dark by 5. And the mise en science is a tediously blue-collar zeitgeist - or at least was, too much so, for may taste. It wasn't just for the assholier-than-thou arrogance of youth. I was frustrated because I really knew the person I was talking to was challenged for certain ideas and modes of anything really; yet I possessed no qualitative achievements of my own. The era of life has its own chapter, as tedious and uninteresting as it ultimately was ...Maybe if ever writing memoir that tile of that chapter should be 'Queensryche'