Typhoon Tip

Fwiw ( or not..) that seasonal guess work has it above normal this year.

Looks like NCEP remains undeterred wrt to heat "Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 03 2021 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 06 2021 - 12Z Thu Jun 10 2021 ...Record Heat Threat from the Northern Plains to the Northeast...." "...Extreme temperature anomalies are likely from parts of the Great Basin/northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. Highs and/or morning lows may reach up to 15-20+F above normal. Especially across parts of the Northeast next week, these values may exceed daily records for highs and warm lows."

Heh... It may back off on the deep layer re-organization it's doing at D6 up there, and there'd still be enough for BD genesis. It wobbles the vortex around n-e of JB for days, and like clock work dependability, right around D6, it just up and punches the thing SE toward the Maritime. I see it do that all the time, and it has to back off. But, I think in this case the flow is breaking down then - it's just a matter of how much. Heh, it's like 1/3 those mechanics could still deliver 28 kts of dead sailors spirit/strata shreds and 52 F air coming into NE zones by mid day, Wednesday anyway

I remember this book I had when I was a kid. "The American Weather Almanac" I think - for some reason I forgot the title. It was gray in color, front and back. And it was thick. It covered all the majors: blizzards, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, and lightning, their explanations and patterns - it was written in 'adult language' tho. Anyway, recall reading about the Labor Day Hurricane that strafed along the Florida Keys in 1935. Category 5 with 180 mph winds, with era construction ...must have been interesting. I remember one specific passage in that anecdotal accounts section of that event, reading about how as the eye came over, the water in the toilets started flowing back out, because the pressure was so low that it was being sucked out - Now, I don't know if that was true, but the text was written "...Presumably because..." and it was anecdotal. I have heard of things like that, tho, elsewhere.

- at this extended range it's more likely the model's just happy about the numerical instability intrinsic to a favorable pattern - eye candy for now.

While on the subject, the operation GFS is 200+ hours out with an impressive TS riding up the western Bahamas ...in case no one has noticed. I mean the model run at a hemispheric scope and scale still does it's usual job of finding a way to make it October by D10 like it does every run - for whatever reason. But in so far as just that tropics, yeah..it's been lurking in the ensemble means. The thing is, the Euro cluster has never been very "prone" to triggering the tropics. Not sure if that is inherently a better performing instrument there, but it's definitely tending to development at lower frequency in recent seasons.

I don't really recall those discrete plot elements anymore lol, wow - Concepts yes. But yeah, I later read a separate thing about the creation of that book. They spent a lot of time in multiple disciplines, primarily physics, celestial mechanics/astro-physics and sociology research, and tried to create aspects in the story the exposed each. The sociological aspect is what stuck out to me the most ( speaking just from orbit - no pun intended). Once the break-down of civility threshold was breached, they did a marvelous job describing how quickly disorder would tsunamis just as fast as the gravity waves off the impact. And what happened in the aftermath within months, ~ 1/3 of the survivors eventually re-coalesced into some form of primitive society structure, with rudimentary laws and so forth. While the other 1/3s were comprised of either Mad Maxian dystopian shit... rape and pillage gangs and tribal marauders, primal scary 'what humans are capable of monster' stuff. The other 1/3rd were isolationists and/or sort of xenophobic, peppered about the outlands and fully willing to blow your head clean off your shoulders if they merely see you coming. I should re-read the book but life and my own pursuits makes a 2500 page leisure read a bit of tough one -ha.

we'll never get a definitive until such time as it will not destablize China's relationship with the West, any further. I wrote a rant about this many pages ago - blah blah Same reason why the JFK investigation/probe pretty much halted at the doorstop of the KGB - uh oh. If they'd connected that up the latter deeper into the sovereign institution, then it becomes a Clausewitzian -scale aspect; one that neither side needs to incinerate the world over lol, just my half cynical hot-take... But, still, I -personally - believe that NSA to Pentagon intelligence really already know precisely who the f*ck it was that left the back door open, too -

Andrew, '92 devastated the southern burrows of Miami/Dade County tho. Also, Charley and Frances on the west coast of the Penn. wrought havoc to Cat 4...so I don't know - I think getting down to Broward and Palm Beach discrete level is just getting more difficult for trying to hit a bullseye - their being missed in 5 decades may not be that usual at that scope and scale. Florida as a "regional" scope is doing just fine. 2004 was a bad year there... And other years, like Wilma ...at least got them action. I'm not sure what the return rate of > Cat 3 hurricanes are down to discrete scales, tho. Maybe Palm Beach is supposed to be denuded off the face of the planet regularly every 30 years and they are over do to be erased - lol

Some of those individual 00Z members of the GEF carrying on with potent hurricane Gulf to Bahamas out in la-la 300+

mmm I dunno - I've lived too long in this butt canal cursed region of the planet for that. That ' not a very strong signal' typically means clearing your calendar for a mandatory shut out event that steals 2.5 days of fisting march back into this region. That was why the previous guidance was more encouraging. The escape trajectories off the continent were more progressive out there next week. Now it's all scaffolding a NW ablation ...okay we'll see.

I read that book back in 1991 ...wow, memories. You should try "Lucifer's Hammer" by the same authors. Typical of their corroboration, their works are volumetric opuses. Proooobably not well suited for present day Twitospheric population of convenience addled "sharp wits". As a typical story novel may be written, where one may engage with a plot piggybacking subplots? Theirs tend multiple concurrent thematic arcs, each toting its own subsidiary popsicle headache labyrinths that really need the 1800 to 2500 hundo pages to get worked out. If one still seeks the old school method of escape, 2500 pages 'ill certainly provide a nice three week diversion at 1 to 2 hours a night. One aspect I like about their science fiction is that it is based upon actual real science; providing a real "sciency" platform to visualize, re-imagine, implicate consequence makes it more compelling. I mean, it is more on the science side of the "Science Fiction& Fantasy" literary genre. I like fantasy - but swinging light sabers and moving objects with one's mind should not be couched together with suturing carbon nanotubes as anatomical analogs to mimic real biological mircotubules behavior, and emerges not just A.I. ., A.A., artificial awareness. See one has plausibility -one does not. Those authors are more hard core science in the fictional process. Well, Footfall is a bit of stretch, okay. But is still vastly more plausible than Jedi's. Lucifer's Hammer is straight up likely to happen some day - it's one of those just a matter of timers.

More quantifiable .. the EPS mean is bunching the geopotential height anomaly more W now. It is opting for more meridian flow around the circumvallate of it, too - which is not good for the longevity, nor the areal layout of impact ( or 'good' depending on what one wants). The previous guidance means were more longitude, with 590+ heights nearly squarely located on climate for delivery here. These recent, however subtle trends, are not as impressive in either of those X or Y coordinate attributes. - also this Maritime cold air jet thing up there is bullying into model cycles, too. I will say that the GEFs -derived NAO and PNA don't support that as much. Not sure what the EPS derivatives do, but since they tend to always just mimic the operational there's no point in even paying for them.

In fairness to Brian's observation, +18C at 850 mb in a decent d-slope/well mixed high sun sky can still get you into big heat in the hover T over your front yards, but the margin for error is like zip. One parametric failure in that profile and it's just annoyingly warm. heh

Me too very warm anyway. To the straw man - I guess - I was just opining that the "historic" aspect has been wiped, if temporarily, all but removed from possibilities. I'm also a big fan of trend. When there is a four day trend in every sourced ens mean to balloon, then it suddenly stops and collapses, even if just a little bit, particularly beyond D4 ( which this technically still is), I get a nervous that it was all one of those setup - back-stabber patterns. It may come back. It could just be 'slosh' run. We'll see. But this heat wave seemed to max in the virtual sense, in the models, about 1.5 days ago. And ever since, the technology suite seems to almost be laying precedence' for how it is going to back out of it. Lol

Not that you ask - but last year in a small region here along Rt 2, we had a fantastic severe season compared to standard thunderstorm day climo for this region. I counted 8 warned events, 4 of which verified with timbre and power outages. Vicious wind events and at least one warning was a tornado that was ultimately classified as a microburst. Then during August dog days, we had several days with really interesting local CB events. Sun next to sharp edged crispy TCUs ..with single rain shaft thunder bolt claps. They were like micro CBs, the fun ones that float passed golf courses lol. But no we had decent year last year in N. Worc/Middlesex CO as a 'get lucky' area I guess.

The upshot of a failing historic heat ridge: there could be more in the way TCU/ photogenic convection during the torrid days next week, because the "cap" of the ridging is weaker; less CIN when it's just above normal heights, and not an actually 'heat dome' - such that the models are leaning now.

This isn't the same look at all. Something got into the works here to really change the complexion just enough. The impressive ridge signal, the one containing +20C 850 mb parcels embedded in 19C from MI to N. VT/ME? Gone, and all that. Monday through Wednesday has gotten shirked by these very recent trends - and it's in all guidance... An above normal period was always the higher confidence aspect - as is usually the case. Temperature is very fragile aspect to maintain in model handling. Throw in that we were asking them to do so from D9 ..meh. Even at 4 days out in time and space, it is ( say ) easier to ruin a 100 F, or even just 95 really, than it is to fumble around and miss a 12" snow event. So it looks like a middling heat wave at best, nested in a period of above normal temperatures. Could be 87-91. I don't even think the highest heat looks N anymore, not sure tho. The upshot is that there could be more TCU/ photogenic convection, because the "cap" of the ridging is weaker, less CIN when it's just above normal heights, and not an actually 'heat dome' - such that the models are leaning previously. I'm not sure it's warm all week frankly, btw. I could see this Wednesday at about 14z, a north-door or backdoor front does the old slamming screen doors with flags snapping in 28 kt NE gust drilling at first a refreshing ahh air mass. But three hours later, not so ahh. More like ew, 'what is it 49 F,' under an abyssal gray sky so slate its like staring into infinity. Meanwhile it's 94 NYC; but even there the BD cuts in, and probably terminates in southern NJ. That's like 6 or 7 isohypses compression aligning from N Ontario to NS. I'm not thinking we should trust any model to just hold that flow like that without sending a veritable p-wave off backdoor bomb blast all the way to Atlantic GA. EDIT: Actually using the Euro, I guess Monday still as a sneaking snipped of 850 layer/EML in there. Didn't see that, but seems to time wrong - 12z, the plume is escaping out of Maine.

Euro getting more aggressive with speeding up the polar jet, also, turning it more SE through the Canadia Maritimes mid week. It could be doing the amplitude aspect/bias it applies in that range however - we'll see if that has legs. It appears the model is outright locking an ambient suppression southwest of roughly BUF-NYC (~) by Wednesday, and won't let it return the rest of the way because of its setting up that ablating flow structure it retros/forces back SW. I'm not a big fan of terminating planetary wave events from the NE though - Looks like Sunday, Monday and Tuesday... 91, 93, 96 ... then 88 HFD to 74 LWM Wednesday on this run. Not sure I buy it just yet though. What would be more likely based on experience, is a BD interludes for a day ... then rolls out.

Yup - with Will on that one. The insurance company will supply that situation with all the legal they need, to recoup the money they have to give to you -

So y'allz are pre-occupied with a moral aspect of mask vs none. Relative to setting, my only concern is keeping the peace in a social circuitry that runs too hot in recent eras already. I don't agree with masks. I paragraphed that above. But I am willing to wear one to not be part of any triggers - those are two distinct motivations. I don't have much of a conflict personality I suppose... I tell ya what ..if science could get around to proving C-19 risk has fallen beneath the mask wearing risk factors -that would settle this debate immediately.

00z Euro has a Sonoran heat release, with kinetically charged 850 mb layer under an EML, all that, clearly charted and tracked back to origin. But the parcels are 20, maybe 20.5 C from the looks of it, and that may be 96 cap temp as most likely - but that's 00z for D5-7. I have noted in the past, the models tend to add ticks to the 850 in warm conveyors as outer mid ranges get nearer in time. This still looks to favor BTV- coastal NH as the heat axis, too. But we can make up for that with being 2 deg latitude more sun. When dealing with the upper edge, otherwise irrelevancies become more meaningful delimiters.

That's very difficult at 42.X latitude without assists. We can do it, but it's got to be perfect - perfection is an assist in that sense ha. But yeah, +22C at 850 mb, with down sloping and zero cirrus plumes timed ( like usual.) to steal 1.3% to keep in 98/75. That happened like twice in my life. 1975, and 2012 The reason why it is easier to do that out say, over the panhandle of Nebraska, is because the air is lighter for one. Adding that most locations that do that 100/75 are that crucially south and have 2 or even 4% more intense solar. Whatever the real percentage is, 1% from the sun is like a tsunamis of irradient power incoming, so a morning sounding 900 mb ( their surface equiv) of 24C over a corn field is a different set of initial conditions we don't find around here. But who needs 75 on the bottom. If it's 63 dp you can take the 96 to 102 and I dunno - at that far into the deep end of the heat it's hot under and over so it become irrelevant.

Brian or whomever knows, does the National Blend machine guidance also normalize/weight toward climatology out in time? I was poking around in NCEP's docs to find the tech but lost patience - I'm just curious because KFIT from the latest guidance is almost 19 over climate on days 6 and 7 ! TXN 57| 73 64| 80 61| 86 67| 92 68| 94 69| 94 67| 90 67 52 75 That's a helluva signal if they are pulling them down by climo and they're still towering like that.

Mm, yeah perhaps. You know, virtue signaling is a risk - because virtue is subjective? To those outside a given "ethical interpretation of propriety," that VS cozy euphemism becomes more like 'low-key gaslighting' - you know, guilt trip? - whether the mask wearer intends for that or not. I'm willing to bet, when the over-shadowing cloud of Pandemic awareness et al, eventually clears, that will brighten the dialogue about any ethical charge/responsibility, and then people will just view the mask wearer as an idiot. Fine - let 'em. That will back-draft a social stigma; and the wearers will give them up in some interminable amount of time from feeling that pressure. For the record, I think masks as silly. They were scientifically dubious all along as a significant deterrent for the spread of the virus - yes some, but enough to justify for what was more likely unhealthy for users? Mmm.. They are in and of themselves, unsanitary to the user, difficult to keep clean; and also adding another point of tedious hygiene requirement/stress. Frankly, folks either know this consciously, or just damn sense "something's not right" in wearing them all the time. To mention as a part of micro-management head-game. Yup, all this shit was actually prevalent and empirical, enough to objectively question risk, vs slowing a pathogen, in the sense of cost analysis there. It wouldn't shock me, in 10 years, some real science analysis of this practice may prove it detrimentally out-weighed the positive guesses on returns - how many times has time and history proven something like that? jesus. Lol, it's not hard to imagine some kind of/whatever mentality or predisposition about the damn things. If they do, the mere appearance of them as a 'virtue signal' touches that nerve - particularly if the virtue being signaled is some aspect they do not agree with - to put it nicely. I guess it's an interesting sociological experiment - not to toot my horn but I said that 15 months ago: this whole response culture to this Pandemic, we do because we can? Which by "virtue" of that course, being the first time in history the entire World unified around a common objective goal that didn't prospect unilateral war, is thus experimental. It's kind of a techno-sociological experiment. Perhaps an evolutionary necessity. Fascinating.