Typhoon Tip

o k ...they got 'em on the ropes here. Bring one in -

That's actually an amazing look to me. If one's bag is for a stormy-ass winter. Holy shit! ..and there would be arctic outbreaks in that, too. That's in the mean? If that happens ( imagine pass tenths) it meant there were frequent cross-polar jet anomalies. May have been flop over/PV split events, too. And those cold arrive upon base-line baroclinic gradient that when in rest state is just waiting to be another CC attribution event case... I'd also say/remind ... the HC shit is there. That warm glow from the Iberian peninsula ...all the way around the Atlantic ..through the lower M/A, ...all the way to off the west coast is a non recessive geopotential anomaly. I.e., ain't goin' no where. That is the statically bloated HC. But, over particularly the U.S. ... it would be 'compressed' ... which means, there'd be a tendency for fast velocities ... That can be pain in the ass for other reason - I guess cross the bridge, though. Also ..with the QBO in a favorable phase/projection... you kind of wonder if the Euro's AI engine is maybe influenced by that. The negative phase correlates to a base-line negative Arctic Oscillation. some out there in the wild wild word of winter weather prognostic arts... are using the La Nina ( west biased..) map-over to really amp the ante, but ...I still have miss-giving about either ENSO state's ability to force (as dependably) as they did 50 years ago ... due to the HC expansion/ .. ongoing CC stuff. But, even NCEP has admitted in the autumn outlook for ensuing winters, more than a couple of times in recent decade, that the stochastic nature of the EPO-NAO drape of indexes makes them problematic to warm(cool) outlooks; they can subsume and become dominant in the NP-Lakes .. -NE latitudes across the continent, regardless of the intents and purposes of the honest forecaster lol. So in short, I don't know if we need the map-over when you have three basic statisical packages lending to a cold winter. Solar Multi-decadal polar index neg mode -QBO. The La Nina isn't zero modulator - no. But, it only adds, more or less. I dunno... Seasonal outlooks isn't my thing. I don't typically do them, as I suck ..and don't feel I am right enough to be certain I wasn't lucky. But, I do engage with long lead event/threat assessment with some limited success that I don't believe is pure chance.... Anyway, I just think this winter has cold available to it, over our side of the hemisphere, as a pretty easy call. Degree of extreme? meh .. leave that up to others with more sack then me.

You took the bate ... heh, or technically you didn't, because you didn't read the article? If that title of that article ... carefully sculpted to induce a mouse click or a thumb swipe reaction, were the whole thing, ...than yeah. But when one reads it, they intimate similarly, that it is in certain regions more specifically ( It's not you - media is feckless with ethics. ) It's a stupid title. CNN ... FOX ... BBC ...these "IMC" type media members of the general conglomerate, do that on purpose. They make some statement that is obviously outrageous... and it prays on people's reaction to open their articles. There's an economic engine in doing that ..blah blah.. See how it works? they are not wrong... but they are wrong - because that title is correct, winters are colder. ...they just leave the following out of the title. "This new study indicates that the warming in the Arctic is having a significant impact on winter weather in both North America and East Asia..." Which makes it even dumber is that ... these regions may in fact have warming climates in their winters, but they are slower and less pronounced than in other areas. So they leave the relativity of it out, too.

The last 5 games ... seems they've gotten some pieces back and also Sale .. It seems (maybe) their recent 20 day "slump" was more circumstantial. They recharged mentality with good rookie fill ins, now Sale is back ..and they also got "Schwarber" - not sure how to spell that name... Those two are helping right the moral; I don't think it is coincidence the last 5 games have had a different electricity. And maybe these wins are falling out of that charge. We'll see how this series with Tampa goes. So far today.. wow.

Right ... like we said "...There are times to be aggressive; that's not one of them...." Nomar was good [ probably ..] at determining when to be aggressive. Then there are other times when patience at the plate is needed...to be selective - if one can be..- and not wasting swings at garbage chasing that burns up strikes when your clawing to get back into a game and you got guys on base ahead of you and already 1 out. This is ...just baseball theory 101. The Sox need some of that selection mentality at times, no question.

Not to be a snarky dick ... certainly not to you, per se - But the answer to that 'yelling at us' bold question up there is obvious, and despite the popsicle headache, scientific thesaurus requiring prose that surely follows in any article ...they could sum it up in one sentence: Climate change doesn't happen linearly ... Slightly more expanded version: it happens in frets and juts and starts... Sometimes... seemingly linear increases(decreases), too, but all of which will also be interceded by episodic regression back to some prior state, ...a time in which irresponsible mentalities will [predictably ..] attempt to use the slide back as leveraged counter-arguments, until the next bursts of change takes place and proves the longer vision still resembles change. We some all those up, they equal +2 C over the course of 100 years... And in the case of the ASI ... years where the Sept nadir is lower than other years, may also go a decade where the nadirs are uncomfortably low, but not as bad. ... but some year IS coming where it will be worse That ...in summary, is why - Now ...I am not attempting to excoriate an article as agenda-biased without having read the thing ... it's jut that the above answer to that bold question, in a vacuum, is clad.

It's interesting how diametrical that impact has been when considering the middle latitude of North America, too - While we are in some - perhaps - historic warm season rain anomaly, there is a surge in awareness underway in national lime-light media about the dwindling/ .. plausible extinction of the Colorado River. From economics to sociological ( and their subjectivity of one another ..), to the ecological impacts, how it all relates to CC being of course couched in the science and sentiment of the zeitgeist.. included I was just looking at the satellite's mid day hi res visible full loop and it is remarkable, that you could leave Des Moines Iowa and travel to San Franciso, ... if you could do it all in one day at 200 mph driving speed ( lol ..) you would never see a single cloud of any categorical type spanning that entire span, nor searching 800 miles in either side of that line... You know... I hate to say... the only way to really correct that "geological apocalypse" - as appears to be looming in the near future - is to have us ridge out all winter... Warm and never snow ... or rain much at all, and be balmy. While a semi permanent trough relentlessly bites into Great Basin region, and siphons off the GW exaggerate PWAT footprint of the total tropospheric miasma, and does what CC does best, in that area - dump their 50 year quota in a single season. That's probably what will happen...eventually.. I mean maybe not exactly that way - but...that's what this CC shit was modeled to do, and is proving true: it corrects violently in huge staggering proportions, then, ... the region beaten within inches of a species diaspora ...certainly stressed, goes the other way for another 4 decades or whatever.

Outta left field Monday morning MJO quarterback: In short, strong phase 5 should equal at a minimum a cooler tendency, Lakes/OV/MA/NE. Advil version ...Gotta remember to check your seasonal composites. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ The Sept-Oct-Nov ('SON') correlation with the MJO suggest modestly cooler than normal for the eastern Lakes/OV/upper MA and NE regions. Right now the CPC's forecast plotted, GEFs members strengthen the wave between late phase 3 and early Phase 6. There's a lot of spread, but every member is robust. The mean is towering the wave magnitude above median, and given the integral beneath the arc of the wave trajectory through the RMMs is so large, it would be spending a considerable amount of time there. In theory, longer means adding more ballast/momentum to the super synoptic 'gestalt' of the circulation. The EPS has this 'bloody show' but not nearly as robustly. Still, a blend of the two clusters supports a medium wave dynamic spanning said spaces. Offsets and philosophy: Personally I have noticed that MJO presentation has become less obvious in recent decades ... perhaps owing ( conjecture ) to the same reasons Pacific SSTs/ENSOs also have become less coherently represented. Hypothesis: I believe the expansion of the HC is engulfing the trigger points where these OLR/convective forcing would typically interact and force R-wave distribution at mid latitudes. Both the ENSO and MJO are equatorial phenomenon with amorphous boundaries. They extend some 15 to 20, N vs S of the Equator across their respect anomaly periods. The sustaining HC ( which is also an amorphous boundary where it terminates with the westerlies) has expanded well beyond the former. Metaphor, when the sun ages another some 4 billion years ..it will begin to swell into the red giant phase. When that happens, it will bloat to the orbit of Venus ... perhaps even Earth .. HUGE. The orbits of these worlds will no longer be relevant .. because, they will be inside the sun. Most likely, disintegrating and becoming part of the solar guts that will soon after, eviscerate out into a planetary nebula. When that happens ...they no longer will have any gravitational influence on the surround orbital plain that they once controlled. The 'HC' in this metaphor is the red giant phase. The ENSO is Venus, the MJO is Earth. ...just in case this cartoon isn't obvious... But in geophysical concepts, because the the Hadley Cell has grown to a point where it is homogenizing the atmosphere [ perhaps ] too far N and S, these no longer can interact with the gradient of the mid latitudes. If they are not apart of that gradient, they do not exert on the flow ... It is 'as though' they no longer exist, being the point. But they still do... Keep in mind and spirit of objective scientific conjecture, we are not talking absolute switches. Nature is a matter of less vs more as modulating influences in any given system. I am not in a position to delegate a team of grad students into gathering data and juggling derivatives on white boards, nor do I have access very readily ( or time ..) to engage in these pursuits my self. I am saddled by life like anyone. But, I have a gift for making broad stroked insights ..and having to then wait for those who do have wherewithal to inevitably release their formulaic works ... demonstrating that said insights were essentially correct. This kind of station in life is what I refer to as the KosmiK dildo, or the "Michigan J. Frog" effect. The irony is, I am not only originally from Michigan, I bear some resemblance for the shear fact that I've never been kissed by a princess... It's funny how that works. whatever...I know I'm right about this ..better than 50%. The HC is simple f'ing up the mid last Century correlations with these air and sea, Equatorial teleconnector fields. Another CC attribute.

Not a huge fan of swinging at the first pitch when you got 'em on the ropes with man on 2nd and 3rd and one out. They keep over and over and over again doing this ... ending up in a pitcher's count ... then it's onward to leaving said men on 2nd and 3rd, wasted. They just keep doing this- and these pitches they are swinging at are usually chased ...questionable as strikes..etc... Stop swinging at the first pitch assholes! There are times to be aggressive; that's not one of them. Make the f'er pitch

I've never seen this before. The GFS was too far NE across the Basin in the early days...but by D7 lead it corrected.. In all, the blend NAILED Larry's track guidance from 8 days out. Other than very trivial nuances that really don't mean anything - there's not been substantive deviation. There were a couple days of left correction but in the time, those were not nearly enough to matter or really change expectations. Amazing. Track guidance in practice and science has certainly improved over the years but I wonder if this is just an easy scenario for the technology, too. We are not typically that confidence in a D8 position over the MDR - lol

I will say, day-10 Euro range uncertainties, notwithstanding... +22 to +23C 850 mb temperatures over Michigan on September 15 is rare. To mention ...nested in ~ +2 SD circumvallate region that really encompasses Iowa to New York beneath the 40th parallel. It's eye candy for warm weather weather enthusiasts, if nothing else. I'd like the see the EPS and GEFs means not going the other way with the non-hydrostatic heights. I opined a while ago and won't get read ( tl ; dr ) ..etc... But, with evidence to speeding up the flow in the ambient hemisphere, already ... I don't think these notions are stable.

We could be +1 this September, but as an artifact against climatology, not against the circumstances of the larger scales. not meaning to lecture here. Observations i've come across, so fwiw - Simple version: +1 against climate; - 2 relative to that larger hemispheric circumstance. This distinction is important, hugely More deterministic obs: the GEFs have been highly concerted in the nightly EOFs as of late, pointing to a robust positive PNA mid month. Granted the index/modes are supposedly less correlated now then they will be later on in OND ... and so on. I have a problem with that assumption, however. Many who are sick of my harangue on the subject matter ..might know that I have been pushing an idea for years really: the HC expansion is speeding up the geostrophic medium near the slope into the Ferrel latitudes. There is empirical proof of this ... which in the interest of brevity ( haha, too late!) I won't get into.. but, the implications of a faster atmosphere: for one, it materializes/organizes into R-wave structures earlier - that's just basic wave mechanical arguments. Understanding that modulating force ... I'm not sure we can dispense of a +PNA mode that looks like recent as mere seasonal noise. Looking at the behavior of the mass fields between Hawaii and "Californication" (heh) among the individual 30 members ( between D7 and 14 ), some minor suggestion for prototype R-wave distribution that more coherently fits/leads the +PNAP extension downstream over N/A. That's a cooler look for the NP/GL/OV/NE ... Noted, we put up at least one heat wave this year during a positive PNA mode, possibly related to summer index, poorer significance. But with the actual circumstance of the trough between Hawaii and CA, that's rattling that assumption just the same. We'll see if that emerges more or fades. The operational ends up with an ablated ridge and no heat swell above 35 N across the U.S. as of the 00z run at all. Yet it has little trough over that region of the Pacific ... so it may be flag of model instability there. Lastly, the last 4 cycles of the EPS means have been pancaking the 'camel hump' non-hydrostatic ridge signal in the mid CONUS D7-10. That's lending to the operational Euro being a bit of a warm outlier with +3 SD 850 mb air layer it's sending to Detroit D's 9/10. I don't have as much/a lot of confidence in a warm mid month... the ultra short version ha! I'm just not sure that the offset will be relative to climate, or relative to the hemisphere - again, there is a crucial distinction there.

That’s right - as far I understood. CH4 absorbs very strongly … the 3.5 and 8 micron WL almost quite specifically, and very efficiently, which are in the IR That said … the suns total spectral light carries IR along with all else - I’m curious what was meant

Yeah I added to that post lol

Yeah I fixed the typeo

Not sure if any of y’all remember the guy but Willard Scott passed this morning. “Today Show” circa 1980 … 87 years old I think I might have been 5 .. 7 yrs old and that was the first TV weatherman I watched. .. He was like a gateway drug. For I soon was exposed to better highs with local affiliates … then the early good yrs of TWC arrived and completed my journey to full-on heroine Heh … actually it was the Cleveland Superbomb that checked me into rehab as the full-on addict … and two years later … the EF3 (older rating system) tornado that carved a trench though Kalamazoo’s downtown that was the OD

What an epic epic finish to that Sox game

I agree ... For those into the seasonal progression aspect, this is a good take - The idea of 'back broke' Brian and I were discussing the subjectivity of it last week.. I sort of don't think of today as back-broken, *BUT* that is relative to previous climate ? It's kind of backward/confusing... in 1990, an 81 like today's high appears in reach, with sun on the equator side of the equinox, it's pretty darn warm and summery by that era back then. ( also there is a want of breaking backs and getting on with winter, so - ) The DPs are lower, granted. But it's too warm, but *maybe* it is how the back breaks in this modern time. We broke the back ..but it isn't offering the cool complexion that is more typical of the previous climate. What a headache Ha. That said, the hydrostatic heights are still well above 560 dm. So, despite the llv dry troposphere the whole troposphere is not autumn by the previous era, either. But maybe it is/gonna be now/in the future. I remember in college, an 85 under a 564 dm column, in summer, was common back then. And that was July/ ...early august. I think the trough getting hooked up with Ida "faux" broke the back so to speak. The amplitude sort of cheated and delivered an air mass that frankly, reminded more of those cool times in July, when it was 66/58 and raining so often then... I dunno where I'm going. I wanna get on the other side of the mid month, non-hydrostatic continental camel hump look out there. After that, the back breaks ...maybe at the same time the season plunges - like an all at once. If that mid month warm up breaks heat records, we didn't really break prior. That'll probably be an opinion only owned by me .. buut LOL I'm still believing we snow in October, or observe fantastic swings between snow supporting air mass and 70 or even 80 F, btw. Again, due to the ongoing issue with seasonal prolapsing associated with sped up geostrophic velocities in the ambient hemisphere. That's been a recurring autumn aspect, regardless of ENSO or solar cycle or SETI getting signals and tinfoil hat weirdos talking to gods. It's been triggering earlier and earlier than normal R-wave coherence. Long words for, winter patterns kicking in ahead of schedule, as a consequence to the former.

There's no 'contest' there ... ? The point is, the significance of the climate impact can be ubiquitously shared, and no one region particularly "deserves" special attention. But that's just an opinion, but one I'm pretty certain you'll find IS ubiquitously shared among the general ambit of climate scientists et al.

I realize this site's overseer(s) are in a sort of anathema over COVID talk ... Frankly, after thousands of Internet pages, that really were repeating content ... reduxed with different words as though it were all novel ideas and discoveries, but really was just saying the same shit relentlessly... One can understand. I certainly don't mean or want to flout that agenda. This isn't about/for the pandemic. It's about how Humanity isn't allowing the Darwinian forces from operating, those that in Nature's miraculous genius, emerged on this world in order to perfect the skill and trade of any of it's countless genomic members [ necessarily ..] dialed into the 'Gaia system': https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/09/04/1034217306/ivermectin-overdose-exposure-cases-poison-control-centers Soooo ludicrous I couldn't even finish reading the article out of disgust.

Essentially ... the playoffs have begun. Glancing around the standings, Tampa Bay is the outlier ( but I still wonder if their correction vector points back to the other division leaders...), otherwise, the other division leads are all 78 .. 79 wins. Some owe games/post-pones, so those need to be played. Until that happens, parity among the top contenders is actually including those that may end up play-in as wildcards. It is as though the playoffs have begun. This recent 3-game win streak was probably a season defining momentum ... perhaps savior to the season. Why? The combination of the parity, with the timing of this win streak. If they had gone another week in a .500 tepidity, while the other division leads played even .600 ball, historically the 3 game win streaks don't seem to parlay in those situations. It becomes the difference of controlling their own destiny, vs having to wait for other team's losses. I like their chances in controlling this weekend's Cleveland series. For one, the season series, so far, has this match-up clearly in Boston's favor. The momentum in team-rivals is an obvious intangible advantage. But also I don't think Cleveland pitching matches very well against Boston line-up, perhaps idiosyncratically - our guys just spray off their pitchers. The saying goes, 'just win every series.' Certainly true. However, with the parity being what it is, ... yeah a sweep or two thrown into the mix needs to break the parity and move them up the standings. With 9 IL'ed core members being replaced by this tactic of unknowns - it isn't a sustainable [ usually ] gample. Opponent pitchers/ defenses will 'figure them out' eventually. The rookie flash inevitably flat-lines to a .180 earth. With COVID, they had no choice, and it has worked for the last three games. And I have to admit, it seems like the pit is more electrified and exuberant in the game-casts. Maybe the prior specter of the 9 IL was hanging over them, drawing them into a malaise that never ends well.

Imagine if the 6.7 quake on the Merrimack fault happened right then -

Red Sox have 9 ILer’s out on COVID protocols … W. T. F. yet they just finished a 3 game win streak and are still in the the conversation for Wild Card .. I mean the Yankees got their guys back and a week later put up 14 wind in a row. I didn’t realize it was that bad down at the Fens

I wonder if their homes have retractable domes. But seriously … in today’s technological wonders, being as they are, how much would it really take to outfit a home with a dome that closes like a tiny version of a retractable roof at a baseball stadium … closes shut tighter ‘n bull’s ass at fly time. Shit a category 5 wind would be an enjoyable white noise for sleeping peacefully.

Accept that the heat in the Pac NW and lower B.C., which rightfully started the monitoring focus… killed ~400 people - and by the way regionally, New Jersey’s part of the Northeast US… just sayn’