Typhoon Tip

Time sensy but spectacular loop demonstrating how BDs defy natural physics and move opposite all rotational kinematics on Earth ...kidding, but you can really see how the synoptics (loop below) uses New England as a figurative dumpster for extra backside cold mass... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

Why fester over rain on a Sunday night anyway. low confidence obviously but snow atmosphere … the ole CU shrouds spitting grits by the 20th+ is gaining some; in the distant mass field/modulation handling. We’ll see where it goes but that is siggy telecon convergence … albeit extended lead.

Record high temperatures increasingly more likely D6 ... 8 ( watching BD of course..) with this new operational Euro, and recent trends culminating. The EPS non-hydrostatic height evolution supports the general theme with a clear R-wave rollout ridge and height anomalies some +2 SD over the span. I think it is interesting ( sorry to harp on this ...) because of all months in recent times ...I don't recall/find many Octobers that hosted as many warm records, or at minimum, as many upper tier warm events as we've seen them in every other month. In fact, many Octobers we've actually been working out eerie cold patterns for the mid and end of month(s)... this seems to be opposite. However, I don't believe this will characterize the month. This seems to be happening during a week or so window with relaxing NAO and a lingering -PNA coverging on lifting eastern heights...etc. But the deeper range may not evolve toward warmer afterwords. I'd like to point out that in 2011, we had 70 to 76 days for a week through the 10th .. 15th of October, and put up a snow event in the waning days so..

No ... but it sure is fun to drop a turd colored egg into a nest of counted chickens - lol

Last night's operational Euro looks close to or in historic warmth D5+ particularly D7/8 out there. That's 16+ 860 mb with rotted continental Indianapolis fart air with enough tepid sun still lingering to send temps knocking on the door of past numbers.

Agree wholeheartedly ... however, the EPO is a kind of a peculiar entity. Because t's anchored pretty hard into the WPO --> lag correlative ... additionally, is also sometimes anchored in a "tall" ...or very amplified PNA ( which overlaps the EPO domain space and gives it a "little" more mass -contributed dependability).. when these regions are active there is often enough a coupled phasing with EPO domain space, giving it some skill. The NAO does not have that coupled benefit. In short, where the EPO is difficult, the NAO index really can't be predicted. It can't. I'm not going to get into labeling and theory over it, or we'll be at this until 11:14 pm this evening and I got the Red Sox loss ( sadly...) to the Yankees ... I'd almost say the AO is the easiest of the three ...than the EPO ...etc.. . in some sort of long-lead teleconnector-relative ranking. Like , HC Expansion + La Nina ( which may be buried by the former - the verdict is still out...) + phase of PDO ... + solar and SSW ... I don't speak for RD's methods but perhaps juggling these... Thing is, I am not a big fan at all these days with analogs from prior to the hockey-stick CC era which began roughly the 1998 super nino. Too many global systemic changes to count on those. It may be why some Nina/Nina winters have been blowing up lately... etc.

I'm not feelin' it yet with the Red Sox. I've seen nothing over the last two weeks that outright indicates they are proficient against play-off contenders - they've amassed and still are amassing wins off teams that are not. Which they should win those games ...so yeah as far as that goes. But this thing over the weekend? don't get caught up in it. The Nationals should have been swept but actually ...one can argue the games were closer than they should have been... Tonight game should be over by the 4th inning..some 7 -2 ... maybe a later rally to make in 9-6 but falling short. No Bucky Dent heroics ala 1978 redux required. That's how I lean... Am I absolutely confident - nah... wouldn't want be putting money down on this because they still are the same team that went nearly 70 games early in the year with reproducible big comebacks when they they shouldn't have on roster paper. SO, can't say that mystique does or doesn't pop back in at the chagrin of Yankees.

I hope these NAM metrics are right about tomorrow and Thursday ... Could 72 to 75 with lowered DPs under an open sky. Couple of top 10 days unfortunately in the middle of the week, but we take what we can get. After this dead air clammy crawlspace coffin -

I realize this gets annoying for some .. but, that's the HC expansion into the northern and southern latitudes of the planet - most likely. But here's the thing, if that anomaly was calculated against just since 2010 ... (not all the way back to 1993) I bet those warm nodes within those warm garlands would be less pronounced, ..the bands themselves would also shrink if not have more gaps. But going back to 1993 as the headers indicate, that predates the ballast of the observed/calculated expansion that has happened, with particularly more coherence since 2000 according to the lit and ambit of the science in the matter. Basically, Since the expansion is an intrinsic physical acceleration, it will "glow" because it is new in that sense.

Mm.. the pattern may look AN, but as this ordeal presently shows ... we can be f'!ed deep and hard, despite being underneath higher than normal heights, or whether or not an overall canvas should argue this can't happen. The larger scale tends to obscure/ hides how specific New England idiosyncratic detailing offset the larger picture ... uncouples us from the pattern indication. Just means warm look = cool result for other reasons. This is typical of transition season bs around here. It's the same reason why April manks in like this. It has to do with where we are in relation to the continent. and we "kelvin hemholts" pooled 850 air that isn't warming ...The Euro is slam dunking that tendency and that ain't no AN. 'can't pearl out high pressure N of our latitude...or it will be negative anomalies ...i.e, NOT above normal, yes DURING and above normal pattern. Sounds paradoxical, but that's what it means for this geographical region. It's unique. It's like we run our own private little sub-climate that hides within and runs anti-corollary to the larger signal ...say 40% of the time in a sense. So while I'm not refuting your take there ...I'd just caution folks that this can turnout ugly, ... gobbling up a half week's worth of life in another low level cool/RH dumpster scenario that isn't very well modeled.

What a fista butt inundated pattern. It’s about as bad as it can physically be. We may not see sun until the end of the week. Rock bottom weird to have July heights while this is happening. over 2” so far from this April mess

After being wonky the last two consecutive years .. we appear destined to hitting the previous mean from 2009 thru 2018 here along Rt 2 in N-central Mass. Looks like October 10 to 15 for most species ... eye-ballin' timing, and then Silver Maples and Oaks do their typical lingering

I hunch both are right, tho - It may take some era passage along with more science to evince.. but cloud physics in a warming world is not ubiquitously the same over oceans, comparing to intracontinental regions. There is huge difference in the thermodynamic coupling between ocean and lower troposphere, versus the former. We know in the general sense that a warming world does produce more clouds. How? because it rains more ...and has been raining more.. (and rain in this context means anything falling out of a cloud mechanics, including snow ..hail, sleet in the hydrologic sense). We cannot have more rain falling without more efficient cloud mechanics. The study in question was discussing a small percentage of dimming Earth because the warming oceans and less low cloud - and was honing the PDO region of the N Pacific. *There may be correlation to warming PDO and climate change, notwithstanding. It seems to me just a priori and anecdotal observation combined ( so taken fwiw - ), where we are cloud seeding naturally over land, we are seeing very pervasive and dense overcasts from relatively/comparatively weaker synoptic forcing. ... actually speak of the devil. This goop from Iowa to NYC is a rather fortuitous example of that. This "trough" is barely a trough...it's really more like a sag in the non-hydrostatic curve between the perennial western ridge and WAR... yet, it has this vast inundation in all directions. Meanwhile, the western U.S. from Iowa to west of San Francisco ... Nevada... Wyoming? We're talking 1200 miles with zero cloud production. None. Just something I've been noticing .. where there is no clouds, it seems more barren... Where there is any excuse at all to create them, we see those anomalous proficients. But here's the thing ... Marine environs own some 70-73% of the areal physicality of the planet. So, if the warming oceans are lowering low cloud productions ( by vertical sounding/physical forcing..etc...), there should be a net dimming, by virtue of arithmetic. Any increase that might be quantifiable if land were considered in quadrature, would be less weight in that budget.

Finally.. .some acknowledgement that the greater ambit of sport's media and fan base seemed desperate to hear: ..

It wouldn't get clear of the 60s in that look underneath... That high draped and stalled ...banked N-E of us means a steady unrelenting cool feed beneath the 850s, from what I saw ... pretty much D3 right out to the end of the run. It's actually a repeating motif for these global numerical models since June really. They keep trying to over the top large ridge signatures, while surface anticyclones, favoring N routes ... keeping it colder at the surface than one would think looking at the geopotential medium. We really never saw a western U.S. heat ejection come around on a continental conveyor this season even once. July just up and end up cool anyway... But, this pattern coming in is doing it again. It's a like the framework for big warmth, that is not outfitted with a building. The June version of that might have been why we were historically warm that month with only two pedestrian heatwaves. It kept the days relatively cool compared to what they could have heated to, while the nights couldn't bottom out. This appears to be a pattern going back to mid summer, only doing so with weakening solar input. Something like this...

Mid/next week depends on the placement of the surface high. Euro camps wants to situated its ballast N of BUF-BOS axis by enough distance to imply flags wobbling GOM "warmth" all the way to NYC. GFS' camp on the other hand situates the high pressure more directly overhead. That would suppress said flag wobbling and allow first half of the days to get relatively warm before more of a sbreeze boundary. It's all going to change, but taking the overnight verbatim. On a personal note, ... I'm not feelin' winter this year. I just don't want it. I think I may be relocating to Arizona, and finding an off-grid up among the sage and tumble weeds, so I can spend out my pointless existence utterly alone like your God is forcing on my reality anyway.

Is that really why, though? I read an interesting assessment article that addressed why some species went almost a full month earlier than normal last year. That was certainly true here N-central Mass, but spoke about the Great Lakes and southern Ontario as well. Anyway, they were discussing that the growth season was "too efficient" in sugar maple species, and no coincidence ...the maples around my town also went by Sept 20... I had lived here for 8 years prior and every year, the big canopied maples peaked around October 10. Anyway, the 'too efficient' model: Trees can only redirect so much solar energy into chemistry and life, and once that quota/limitation is reached, certain 'chemical machinery' in the production/sustaining of green pigmentation halts. That actually 'intuitively' matches what happened at least imby and surroundings - so take fwiw. But many trees that were patented saffron orange in pallet were not only three weeks early, they turned yellow instead. You may be entirely right about hydration playing a role, too.. but I wonder if there was other factors. Also, the Oaks were as dependable as old oaks. Despite all these other observations, ..those didn't deviate. I mean nothing seems able to deviate the timing of that particular species. Cosmic Ray Bursts that incinerate the Ozone layer and irradiate all life off the face of the Earth ... oaks trees will change at the same time.

Probably need to consider that late mid range look in the GFS off the SE U.S. coast. That's -NAO incarnate with that easterly flow setting up. It's a region of enhanced cyclogenic properties in having warm easterly theta-e long fetch piling into a region with relatively cooler anticyclone ..stalled and anchored over New England and the lower Martime. A slowly evolving cyclogen that gradually phase transitions hybrid sas some climate presentation to go with theory. .. for now, most favorable region is S of the Va Capes and NE of Tal. FL The 006 z GFS has the same sort of cyclogenic synoptic evolution, but actually pulls a real TC into the mess of it. Regardless, all models indicate the evolution of a large lower troposphere blocking anticyclone N, with that eventual inverted trough and easterly flow into that region.

Very similar to a late April/May behavior...with Sunday trying so hard to warm up, but then a BD cuts under and the continental warmth instead curls up through the Lakes and Ontario, while NYC-BOS get hosed. Maybe in a spatial-conceptual sense it's like passing the circulation back off summer and through transition season favors that behavior. 00z GFS Wed and Thursday looks like utopia weather.

Yeah... thumbing through the runs, the EPS has warmer than normal heights from D3 to the end of the run, but idiosyncrasies in the flow structure itself doesn't lend very well to warmth on the skin. It may be just like you said, it may be elevated "relative" DP on SE/E flow nights, and days held down to the 60s.

And yet +6" of rain per month, like we've gone through (ave) over these last 60 days. So much for that climate base, huh. Let's see if October and November and December aggregate a foot to 18" of water or whatever in the fck-and-change it was. Better yet...let's do that, ...then have it get bone cold in Jan and February with 0 ... man,that'd chap some asses around here.

I don't know why y'all keep up with this idiocy, never seeming to ever glimpse an awareness as to its utter futility. You simply cannot, particularly in this social-media realm, succeed in any attempt to influence one another with your own subjective opinions - we are not a 'fashion and fad' engagement, where that is ever possible. But ...since I am a moron, which uniquely qualifies me ... I will throw my two-cents into the fray here ... DP are only a problem if your scrotum sticks to your side-walls. Or, when you stand up off a cheese-dawg's pleather sofa from circa 1979, and the backs of your thighs sound like your pullin' and length of ducting tape. Or just having a tendency for your shirt to peel away from your shoulder blades. ... If someone 'wants' these particular sensations ? ...well, to each is his or her own. But they are fetishes that do not - most likely - share in the same voice with the canvased popular opinion to put it nicely... ( You wonder what sex is like with people who do - ) Now...there is a narrow range where a positive anomaly DP can be enjoyable. Like last week, when the streets were dry, and the temperature was 75, and the DP was 68. The wind blew caress around with light zephyrs and wafts, and it was both cozy, but also felt like dawn on a tropical island - well before the heat sets in. Something about that narrow range is pleasantly submerging - like being in a tepid pool, or walking into the ocean off a Fiji beach, where the water and the air are indistinguishable.

Mm hm.. its that old wives tale called Science. Lol. - just kidding there, in mangling your post buuuut - The present Populist ideology has flipped the script and managed to make the "wives tale," science. ( The backhanded indictment was certainly intended: Populism tends to propagate along by f'ing moron commoners ) And in like vein, during this attempted coup de etat over intelligence, rationalism and enlightenment, science has become the new Zodiac method. People would rather now look for 'she loves me, he loves me not' means, anything, to feel better when the science methods predict she or he does not - in the proverbial sense. Obviously I'm being whimsy with turn of pen here... but the reality is, some species do interim benefit from climate change, while ironically ..the whole system is in forced modulation - usually at the expense of those species that do not. Unfortunately, warming connotes wasps and mice are among those that flourish. As do ticks bearing pathogens that make Covid look like a head cold ... Or the huge list of migrating species sent at diaspora, because their own regions no longer support them. That can set off an ugly negative longer view, too, where the escaping biota enters the new region, but encounters no natural imposing factors ... They subsume the new ecology... etc... etc... over produce, then die.. Leaving the new region barren for having wiped out the indigenous species in lieu of toxifying their own longer term prospects. That's the simplified version of course, but in essence, true. It's an ugly, ugly thing, destabilizing. Anyway, some wives tales actually have an explanation - science substantiates them. Like, "Red sky at night, sailor's delight; red sky at morning, sailor takes warning" This yore actually has merit in a predictive sense. By virtue of the fact that the sun rises in the east, and storms "tend" to approach from the west, that means that as the corpuscular rays tip over the horizon, they will illuminate the under cast of the encroaching ceilings, casting them in auburn hues and salmon- yellows, and saffron fires. It's basically 'Hurricane LSD" approaching. Ha ha. While in the evening, by virtue of the storm leaving east, exposes the under cast of the ceiling to the last rays of the setting sun ...and the same illumination artwork sets the sky ablaze. That means at least for awhile, fair and favorable conditions are en route. The disgusting mice to maggots realm of biota wriggling the earth strikes me as a pretty easy Climate Change suspicion. I noticed actually this has been happening over the last 10 years. With increased rodentia and weird bugs I'd never seen before. Maybe the latter, creepy insects have always been around; it's their increasing numbers merely exposing their presence.

Too much risk... History has too oft and repeatedly demonstrated that humans do not cede control ( ultimately, their sense of power) back to democracy at the other end of those thematic arcs. It may just be 'semantics' but the use of the word 'authoritarianism' is too absolute. Semantics aside, it still is a philosophy designing no necessary room for interpretation or negation - perhaps not during the crisis management, itself, but of most importance delimits the acquiesced societal system a very necessary monitor, checks and balances, ... but most importantly, escape plans. Virtually every "desperate" sovereignty in history, that perceived systemic failure so dire, so unavoidable as to have only one pathway to its salvation: through the voice of the loud 'angel,' discovered the hard way, the angel was dark. This leitmotif is everywhere across history; it's just a fact of humanity. It's what turns the pens and strokes the brushes throughout the spectrum of arts we use in muse whether mocking statesmen follies, or conceit our Nationalist celebrations. You know ( for muse), it's really a lot like the arc of "Senator Sheev Palpatine" from the "Star Wars" saga - it was like predicting the future? Just like those disaster films of the mid 1990s seemed to eerily homage the fall of the Trade Towers - the western world's 'Towers Of Babylon.' We are collectively in tune, though our fears cannot often be so codified. There's still 'something out there.' It's unsettling and potentially wicked. And whether it is coherently definable, whatever that is ... ( you gotta unfortunately think 'vibe' ), it still triggers the imagination, becomes the stuff of dreams to the macabre of canvas, to the thrill of cinema. Being in touch, doesn't always mean being able to touch. But back here on Earth.. if history can provide any guide - and oh no, ... humans never repeat the past - perception, however valid or not, of calamity so extreme enters the dark lord. You know, as a possible ... indirect sort of support for the collective 'sense' aspect, consider the last 10 years and the wave of Populism that's tsunamis'ed around the developed word. That's how the village idiot, with lots of money and a feckless morality rose to be in charge. Not just here... but over in Brittan. These are fear induced acquiescence, because in times of uncertainty and looming specters, that's what humanity does: it shrinks its flower and closes up like a daisy in a spring snow. And inside their petals they are insular, traditional, and safe.. As difficult as it may be to solve this problem, authoritarianism cannot be the answer. There must be another way.. Or, we may perish for either recourse. Doing nothing = death. Authoritarianism = inevitable wars as that escape = death.