Typhoon Tip

has to to break at some point ... the problem is, not sure if anyone objective in this engagement/hobby/profession has bothered to notice, but autumns have been particularly topsy-turvy in recent decade(s). Autumns have always been changeable since the Earth decided to tilt with respect to the plain of the ecliptic ... but no: the scale and degree of stochastic instability is on a different level than the previous 300 some odd years of climate suggestion. It is summer and then it is winter and then it is summer ... prior to the winters sucking donkey ballz - that is the leitmotif, the recurring theme, regardless of ENSO this, polar index that, AMOCs and PDOs and whatever overly-reliant astrological teleconnector is in use. At some point, persistence penetrating through institutional methods should start to question the validity of the methods. Winter does not = snow and cold, anymore... It has evolved to = f'ed up. The problem with that is... no one does, because it means no winters. And then there is no forum. Oops - hahaha. No but my point was going to be, it seems harder to define a sort of 'week the back broke' ... I guess the easy way to do it is to graph every years diurnal averages down to the day. And then look for the inflection points. That's the point of no return - I'm wondering if more recent curves have multiples or approach that. Of course...heat enthusiasts will feel jilted if there are still runs toward 90 F beneath a given year's inflection but.. you know, 'back broke' is bs in the first place and seems an unreconcilable muse anyway.

Get used to it. … the heat aspect. What does NASA know? - I tend to agree with NOAA and/or NASA re WV injection … which probably isn’t saying much. Lol But water vapor injected into an ambient atmosphere pressure that ranges fro 100mb (bottom) to .04mb (top) would disperse very rapidly due to saturation vapor pressure, as the plume first entered. So it’s spread out probably approaching homogeneity by now … it’s a potent greenhouse gas but, likely too gossamer in this state to significantly augment the temperatures - which nothing unusual is occurring.. If there was some form of planetary scaled mechanical forcing it would register in part as a thermal inversion

That’s faked just in case …

Heh. No one’s asking me but imho this summer was an aridity outlier, an anomaly that actually fell outside the already established/empirically verifying predictions of CC elevating ambient theta-e. Shows -perhaps- that good ole fashioned variability can still yank things around.

Yeah I'm not being very good about this today lol... uh neither? I was just meaning in general, farmers or gardeners or enthusiasts et al, just sort of don't bother by this time over that region up there. More along that, rather than climate hard freeze or just a frost, or just 40s-hating plant gradations and stuff. I mean you can grow if it doesn't harm the plant in question. It's been weird in recent years. Like warm enough to grow toms right into early November, provided you miss the foot of snow that's 'never happened before' in on the 20th of october

Couple of sporadic 90 readings otherwise it seems everyone's 88/66 or thereabouts. Warm sun. Low wind. With occasional saw bugs ( I guess those are Cicadas). ... summer doldrums

Not to miss the joke like a deliciously tedious spectrum annoyance ..but, shouldn't that be about over up there anyway? N. NE should be nearing max color in 2 weeks, right? Actually - what are the numbers on that shit. I thought it was like Sept 15 across the N drape of VT-NH-ME ...then Oct 15 nearing Worcester ...etc. But around here, ... tomatoes is all I have ever had really growing after Aug 15 ... maybe peppers when I want the bells to turn red

Oh...okay I see. The report I saw had to do with the dreaded sulfur-D fwiw -

Hmmm ... Seems SPC has been playing catch-up with this convection signal shooting out ahead of the "Tokage cool down"/amplitude and front. They currently have the southern Lakes in an ENH hashing, also... have bumped tomorrow to MRGL just west of the I-95 corridor. I'm not abundantly sure they won't have to promote that yet more east and/or elevate a stripe to SLGT... Timing is a limit or a help, depending...it's sort of an event moving at the rate of the transient trough sweep through the area so it's possibly spanning more than a single period. 12z NAM grid has .11" at Logan Wed by 18z with -3 LIs, torrid DPs and still SW trajectories. Fuzzy for now

Fwiw ... NASA et al have already released statements that the Tonga eruption was not sufficient to significant forcing. Not sure of the exact wording or their methods in making that determination.

There is a way though ... That soupcon of hyperbole I leveled above was meant more 'as is' and is tad exaggerated The NAO is however trying to slip negative, and the GEF mean/synoptic cinema up there does show moderate 500 mb h anomalies for about 7 days before the deep range entropic decay rings the world ( proving that it is useless to run it out that far -). Anyway, yes the GGEM does dive a trough into the Lakes D10 to serve as a capturing device - should the NAO start exerting an influence more toward the western limb of the domain, it could prevent recurving - but it's like a REALLY small chance of all that.

agreed fwiw - as of right now, I cannot find a guidance system that offers even wiggle-room arguments to the contrary. Based on all those sources, whether in blend, or in sole depiction, there is 0 mechanical way to get any TC in that time range to affect the Eastern Seaboard. Now ... for cane enthusiasts, all is not lost. You still have the 144 ( give or take day...) hrs for the planet Earth to figure out how to modulate the entire circulation envelope from Japan to Greenland ... 'so you're tellin' me there's a chance'

Actually, Brian and Tam' my statement wasn't worded the best way... sorry. I was really thinking along the lines of September datasets, alone - relative to the history of September ... I guess 'climate relative' didn't have enough context there. Obviously 70+ can register in December - we've seen that several times. Those are pigs. One doesn't have to be an accredited climatologist to see the aberrancy of 70 when it should be about 39. 1998 did it for several days in a balmy week. As 2006 did a similar SE ridge domination...may have even been 60s in January from the same pattern persistence that year, prior to the Arctic Oscillation crash in the 2nd half of the month. I also remember several single night wind swept southerly gales over the decades. Those are not as rare in late autumn or even early winter as one may think ... with temps an eerie 71/69 just ahead of a ribbon -echo squall and strong cold front. One of my top 5 favorite snow events of all time happened a week after such an experience back in 2003. Man... so much nostalgia it's hard to type ( admittedly) ... but, it was a distinctive 3 stage epicosity. The warm gale; the polar boundary intervals; 2 day lull --> 20" powder storm right down to the Sagamore Bridge ( when SSTs still hover in the 50s at that time of year no less). But it is an interesting question - what are the greatest standard deviations to those local seasons; yet more discretely, those months. Because the first half of winter, the Eastern Seaboard is more likely to to experience a S transport warm event.

This is an interesting if not 'odd' question? Because most years ...that does not happen

heh... yeah - right. I would wonder if 103 on September 7, might be the greatest climate relative standard deviation temperature ever recorded in New England.

Just 3 days and I win! I'm pretty sure this month has been a Mr Blutowski ...which was a my evil goal, to see a 0.0 month during all this popularization ( and even among sciences...) of CC causing the opposite. I never liked the assumption - certainly not the use of it to sell headlines. I can think of plausibility too easily why that is not necessarily true, worth research - yet no enabled sources attempt to do so. Makes me think it's just another example of species now exhibiting diminishing returns. It's another drug to fill the needles of a species increasingly psychotropically addicted/slaved to the greatest mass opiate since the invention of religion: dystopian news delivered as a stimulus. something like that - But even if some random over achieving CU managed to .01 the Basin ... setting the record probably still qualifies a win.

That sort of 'observation metric' may not work as well in a stressed flora state due to desiccation factors. Trees are cutting out with yellows and death brown in clumps of leaves that have nothing to due with 'normal' seasonality triggering leaf chemistry changes - which is why colorization happens. They are simply dying off members prior to getting to that normal destination.

Yeah ...I dunno. It would be difficult to parse out how much of either, that RNA/-PNAP stuff, vs just a compressed hemisphere in any attribution sense of it. I don't believe multi-season/perennial persistence for compression was not part of that, however. While at the same time, the -PNAP was raging. I.e., some of both. I can tell you this much, ...either alone might cause a destructive interference pattern. Together? f ed

Yeah...this has been emerging and fading ...emerging and fading in guidance ever since typhoon "Tokage" smeared its guts across the N Pacific - not sure those two are unrelated. It's early in the year for the 'recurve correlation' stuff, but... I have tl;dr hypothesis why it may matter this year - perhaps more so than typical summer. Anyway, it's transient..

Wrong

That's been a leitmotif with increasing prevalence over recent decade(s). There are exception periods, or specific events, of course. But in general. Shearing systems due to velocity saturation from too much gradient in the means between the 35th and 60th latitudes. Sometimes as many as 15 isohypses is the base-line state, and that's outside of actual S/W wind maxes. That will impose an attenuation. It shrinks the d(v)'s ...or tends to, and the S/W don't have mechanics to do as much, because they are not differentiating the flow enough to impose Norwegian model jet structural responses. The ones that overcome and develop better total cyclone space within that flow and the storm moves along at ludicrous speeds. It's weird though because this hurried maelstrom thing is happening with elevating pwat, which seems to be offsetting the total mitigation - it seems to more effect storm structure and placement. I mean all this from orbit. There's exceptions and goes back and forth with more and less coherency.

Oh I'm all but fully convinced there's a kind of electron double slit uncertainty principle thing with convection, where as soon as you observe the convection it does that -

The cell over the southern aspect of the Capital District appears to be bowing... Meanwhile, explosive CB genesis is igniting from N-central CT to through Mass. Could be one of those ordeals where these cells take of the show here. They're maturing into a more than less a line with discrete cells embedded and as they sweep eastward they'll correct the instability... There may then be more developments along the Cfront

it's one of the initial conditions where the shear is directly self-evident in the early CU/tower orientation. They're big time leaners. The towers are tilting off toward the ESE, while the bases are moving more E. This gives a subtle 'rolling' look to the CU. It's not hard to imagine if an intense updraft dangles vertically through that environment, it will take the rotation and potential meso it -

hoho man - that'd be a helluva way to find out. jesus - I think I got stung ( count-ably) twice prior, and I remember both. Once a 6 year old at a beach day at a lake in Michigan. Stepped on one of those mud dobber wasps. They're black-brown, and have a skinny sub-thorax stem that leads to a bulbous venom and cartridge ass area - heh, ...I'm just calling it that. They use that stinger that's like 1/3rd their body length for immobilizing prey but it becomes a remarkably effective defensive weapon when a non-suspecting 6 year old boy places his bear-foot squarely down upon one of them and mushes it into the hot sand. The other time was a freak. I was in school, in a class room ..minding my own business. Same exact kind of wasp had crawled up my pants leg and apparently took exception to the idea that it was trapped and attempted to use it's stinger to drill an exit portal through the soft, supple tissue of the back of a child's knee. I honestly think, out of all three of those experiences, the beach, the honey bees, and this one here, this one hurt the worst in terms of jolting initial pain. I don't think it was a mud dobber, but had a similar body type. It was kind of comical...because I jumped on a kid like a drowning person does the rescuer as some weird panic reaction at the instant the searing drill entered the leg, and this non-suspecting kid actually stood up, as he was a couple years older, and carried me for moment on shoulders while yelling what the hell are you doing.. Oh man.. I was destined to be dork I guess. As I stood there sobbing with the teacher trying to calm me down enough to ask me what was happening, it crawled out along the top of me shoe.