Typhoon Tip

Dooring is unfortunately always part of any extended probability at this time of year. You almost assume there will be one, and really it is a matter of eliminating the probability ... day by day -

Tomorrow and Tuesday are likely to be dandy days. Light offshore oriented flow, combining d-slope with April sun would salvage the mid 40s for that matter, but here? - we're talking 55 to 60 anyway. MET MOS is 55-ish at KFIT/KASH/KBED for tomorrow and at least that high to 59 for Tuesday. It'll feel warmer than it is with that searing higher sun's zenith just dumping radiation into the environment with shimmering vantages and wafting micro-parcels of super adiabatic warmth. Basically, nape soothing on 'roids. It sucks not getting that weather today, but knowing of April's climate prison, we take whatever paroles we are offered and go with it. Still liking/eying the mid month for warm anomaly. How much so cannot be ascertained at this range.. but, personally I suspect the 'correction vector' is pointed toward warmer than the operational runs. Significant cratering of the PNA index mean that is coherently visible in the synoptic/spatial layout of both the EPS and GFS ... usually with that kind of weightiness the operational runs will shed noise as the time gets closer and thus allows the signal to finally punch through in the deterministic solutions. It's 10 days ... maybe transition starts around D 8... It's kind of like the trying the pull a winter storm out of the modeling ether, only here... we're trying to find heat domes - the most fragile of them all. This signal has been persistent, fwiw -

Just sayn' ... today's solar incidence is about equivalent to Sep 8 .. 7

If the pattern successfully flips warm between the 10th and 13ths and lasts indeterminately in mild to warm form, from mid month and beyond, it will NOT be because "April is fine" I mean, how much f'n abuse does a person have to keep taking over the span of life before they stop pretending bullshit. It will be because it is an anomaly relative to the obvious, inarguable truth about the climatology of April in New England.

Yeah the operational model versions have all trended - GGEM a little lagging ... - toward the erstwhile numerical teleconnections. I posted my annoyance over the fact that they previously were not. ... I suspect the undulant trough trying to exit the EC is still too deep, though. It's a minor aspect to the total manifold, which is a pretty starkly contrasting warm pattern - I real seasonal 'stage' in the climb out. It seems there really is nothing after mid month to suggest we get another frost/freeze supporting air mass. That doesn't mean we won't piss shit the dailies with cut-off through mid May ... but in so far as 'annoying cold,' it would appear that after this week's nastiness ... everywhere east of the Rockies and S of ~ 50 or even 60 N has 550+ hydrostatic heights and bottom latitude +PP ... which means west wind. We warm - ...agree with Scott ... 12th but again, if the models are holding on to the trough too long over next weekend, we may blur the transition in sun made days.

Indexes say we bust into an open warm continent mid month ... 'mentioned this the other day. Operational versions don't wanna bite. Particularly the GFS - jesus. But I've bitched about this model in the past, amply .. and how it holds onto blue hydrostatic heights and winter, in any range beyond D 7, usually until the 4th of July ...at which time it gives us 10 days of summer, before it starts bringing frost and grauple air masses across the Lakes to the 300+ hour runs. Sarcasm aside... either the operational runs will start to cave, or the telecons will modulate away from a neutral NAO/-PNA

You should have that be "The collective forum user" vs "Snow chances" in the winter, and "The collective forum user" vs "Convection chances" in the summer.

I wonder ... were those more nocturnally owned? I physically recall both 2010 and in particular, 2012 as being warm to touch ... This year did not seem that way to me. I'm not not sure what my own perception problem is with this, but it didn't feel above normal. Now, in fairness to 2012, ...that March was like "climate freak" above normal. Being +8 to +14 is some kind of New England version of Pac NW only in March ( so as usually ...we experience our "extraordinary" heat while no one is looking) ... What is it about this region - everything's gotta be under the radar, or while no one's looking. I want a 10 day mustard bomb heat wave for f sake! From my A.C. protected enclave... I want to "experience" the 4 middle days = 105/79, 107/84, 109/86, 106/87 followed by a BD that tanks the temp to 91 because it's so ridiculous the Earth just radiatively saturates the BD air... Then it can 90, 90 ...84 ... Seriously though... I question whether the sun at this latitude can do that with the bottom of the boundary layer dropping out east of the els... It's like it has to input so much energy, and with DP ... it may be geological limitation ? interesting...

It’s weird yeah. I mean the last three days were no side of green up weather conditions … although the suns bright. Yet the red maples up this way are budding.

No one's asking me but .. I don't think it's "as much" of a fantasy as is typically the case for this range - though I wouldn't pin adjective to it like 'torch' per se. Heh. But there is multiple signal sources for broadly systemic/hemispheric obliteration of that which we've been observing. Namely, an R-wave re-positioning from Pacific arond to eastern N/A, and the retreat N of the westerlies, by mid month. In the meantime, dailies look to me like we continue to oscillate for the next ten days. The the models' ideas of the atmosphere attempt to fight off radiative/seasonal forcing with fake-out cold storms that just end up rhea like. Back side bud belayer air masses that flip around to nape days ... with posting mood swinging accordingly. ..ha, rinse repeat. If we can get a few hours in the garden or a decent bike ride a couple of days, we'll call it a success... But that signal mid month is not only in all ens systems, it's also hugely suggestive in La Nina climo. 1976 ...2002 .. to name a couple, but there is a strong statistical correlation to end-season La Nina lag sending up early warmth across eastern N/A. Those years perhaps being excessive, mere examples. I wouldn't bother with magnitude from this range as it pertains to this month. But heh... in CC with Pac NW type events, to mention everywhere else in the world where attribution studies link CC to these synergistic heat events that have been materializing ( relative to native climates ) ... I wouldn't be inclined to hold back, either. We'll see. In short, live ens means are directing toward a result that alights upon that La Lina climate signal, ...doing so during upwardly mobile ongoing CC rage? We've spent 30 days (figuring out ways how to not snow) in a cold hemispheric look... Yet, still managing a couple of 70 degree lollypops... but relative to all, this anomaly is borrowing time. Any venture of guess in what happens when the westerlies suddenly escape N and we balloon protective warm dome everywhere S?

GGEM tried to warn that today was a 'warm sector rhea' day. No hope of realized the warm potential -

I guess I'm odd but that looks like the atmosphere's in the aggressive finish of a hard f for some reason.. 'oh oh yes yes more more'

As expected ...solid recovery this afternoon though. Probably we high T at 5 sun provided - if it dims with high cloud, no. But 20 to 25 to 50 or near so is pretty solid. We don't drop tonight... Tomorrow is still not clear. Supports low 70s easily, but the warm sector looks dirty.

You know I see this sort of ludicrousness a lot with these D10 to 15 ranges... ( uh, a different ludicrousness than just the ludicrous range LOL) It's almost like the model tech has finally gotten better with the lower tropospheric physical interplay with real BL inhibitors ... so it just applies that forcing at all times now. But in reality, sometimes that stuff does happen with bend around damming this, ..and BD that, but sometimes it doesn't - I'm saying it seems this way.. The GFS seems to go too far, biased to create 0 ability to bring warm air in here with f'in it up with any way it can.

Wtf is that and why are we surprised ?

I'm a little suspicious of Boston's high reading on the 2nd and 3rd day of that heat wave. I was just crushin' the nerd over in the weather charts from those days of lore, and there really wasn't any impetus to kick the wind around E at Logan ( ... was the station Logan back then? ) Synoptically, that was a pervasive heat anomaly spread out all over the Lakes- OV - MA - NE regions. The PP implied a west wind, right out of the dragon's ass of Boston, where it was 91 while NYC was 101 on 3rd. The synoptics of/when what happened typically makes those locations more competitive than that. Then the next day on the 4th, it was 107 at NYC and "just" 97 at Boston? Thing about the 4th though ...a front came down at some point during the day, so it may have capped that high - not sure ... sometimes those boundaries dry it out and that allows the temp, if anything, to bounce up before it cools later. Little tedious but interesting -Ray loves this shit, especially some random day in history a light year before he was born.

I'd take Superstorm93's Euro numbers in a heart beat under April sun. Obviously it won't be sunny every day of that. But having a "climo" look, while all numbers are actually a pube flopped over the warmer side, is both appealing if/when it is sunnier, ...but also is typical of CC era. Aside: It just bothers me how I go look at the climate page at NWS Boston near the end of every month going back many years... and 80 or 90% of the months since 2000 ...some 260 month's worth, are always positive. These 30-years mean methods are belying "rate of change" as a significance. It's not so much that it is above normal, it's the acceleration of it that is the tell. The last hope for any snow this season ( synoptic ) appears to end via telecon spread ... roughtly the 5th of April. We're going to toast up a bit this week ..balancing out the 'soothing' nadir we're caressing our way through yesterday and today... But after that, we slip into a more typical early April kind of marginal atmosphere, where it can be 62 and sunny, but inject any theta-e into the column with UVM and it's wet snow. That lasts perhaps 5 days... The operational runs that go out longer than that don't really reflect the extent of warming S of the Canadian border, suggestively offered by the GEFs -based numbers. The NAO having neutralized and tending positive; the PNA is negative and going down. I have seen a couple of GFS runs that are attempting to flat ridge east of 100W across the country in the la la range - it could be an early attempt.

Better than Will Smith or the impending nuclear war ...

Tomorrow could be a sneaky big diurnal day... We are definitely deep in the cold heading into tonight... But the present cold/CAA pattern abruptly ends and we go calm overnight. Over the top of the decoupling meat locker ( ugh) ..the high pressure shifts south and east, and puts us in a west/SW drift above the deck. It may not even drop as low tonight at elevations ... ORH warm than FIT. Then tomorrow, the sun is strong enough this time of year to destroy inversion, no question - the question is whether the advance of WAA clouds caps us. If not and the wind gone light and d-slope under higher the Equinox sun angle, we'll beat MOS. If clouds... ignore this post. ha. By 00z tomorrow night, the 850s have surged from -10 C at dawn, all the way +4C by dark. We'll mix overnight with more SW wind establishing.. We're apt to be warmer at dawn on Thursday than we are at sun down tomorrow evening, a d(t) exaggerated by a potent warm front between 06 and 12z Thursday morning. Hard to say how warm Thurs gets... The GGEM is engineering all these needling ways to punch holes in the warm up potential. The GFS looks cleaner as does the Euro. Climate favors spring/warm enthusiasts enduring sore butts so the GGEM can't be ignored...

Op ed: No one asked ...but my personal opinion is that this "freak" cold, is another example of that seasonal precession(autumn), and later at the other end, the lag(spring) phenomenon we've been seeing over the last 20 years. All those petty snows in October and May ? ( some more than petty) They are caused by changing the mechanics of atmospheric circulation engine of the planet ... Most obviously attributed to CC Snark: But we have our own brand of denial here. We don't deny because we are preserving our right to profligate the environment and protect ( usually for money ) special interests that are directly or indirectly dependent upon that exploitation - no. We deny because acceptance means facing the reality that winters are declining in all metrics. Muse: Which it is a freak occurrence ... The significance of it is merely masked by two principles. One, it's still early enough in spring to sort of look sideways at its significance. But the principle of it ... this cold is vastly superior in standard deviation to anything that took place between Thanks Giving and St Patty's Day this last season - relativity is where this story is told. So it waits until almost the turn of April and the way end of March to deliver this. That's the lag - I have strong hypothesis why these late cold displays take place in this era, too. Two, we've been saturated with the phenomenon of 'record breaking,' in general over the spectrum of all metrics under the sun, for more than a decade. So having so deeply negative below previous records ... some dating 100 years or more at synoptic instructive cold, might slip past people's attention. Particularly when they are in heated homes and cars and no sooner, Thursday, the region's apt to bathe in a 70 F afternoon

I think you guys are both right. I've often thought that it ...I wouldn't go so far as to say is becoming mockery, but has been getting increasingly more crass. That does tend to dent the significance/appreciation, and perhaps a return essence would be needed to restore. I can almost suspect that the erosion of sophistication tact FXWX mentions, with the shock-jock over-bearing 'humanistic' quality ( to put it nicely), might have been leading toward a destiny for like this. It starts somewhere.... What's the history here though? I was wondering that on my run ... what's the worst thing that's happened in the history of the program? On the other hand, I agree the response by Smith was not proportional. He'll need to do more to atone for this... And work with the Academy and ...I dunno, maybe some sort of PR outreach. He should opt out, on own volition, future engagements - and should the Academy and all party's involved want him back, then they'll tell him it is not necessary. Not sure I see how that would happen, ...all of this is just a suggestion. In the meantime, it should be noted ... Smith is genuine and proven to be so, with 0 track record of anything like this at the age of 53 ...with an illustrious and accomplished career... There are those that deserve forgiveness, there are those that don't. It depends on how he comports himself in the coming days/weeks...

No one asked me about the slap heard around the world, so ...tfwiw - Two schools... 1 Even if in some extreme or unique circumstance where mere words can incur an understandable or acceptable 'slap' response, was that one of those? 2 Suppose for a moment it were, this next thought is a bit more symbolic. The sanctity of the Oscars may be forever tarnished. To iconoclasts sure.. maybe it's about time Hollywood is les the pomp and elegance, and more humanistic... However, that engagement isn't really the place for that? It is an artistic impression in itself, as that entire space of our culture sets out to adorn the night with praise and specter - in a lot of ways, it is a movie in itself. Another means for escape into a dream that many will likely never see materialized. In that sense, it is honoring art, with art. One does not enter a museum and mar a work of art, because the painting offends. Maybe this is just sort of a metaphor for the egregiousness of Mr Smith's actions. Having said all that... I am aware that Smith has been managing some difficulty in his marriage as what's new.. a Hollywood couple somehow managed to air their laundry over the last two .. three years. Then, within two years ... it surfaces that his wife has been battling Alopecia. It seems pretty clear - or should to anyone with a modicum of human awareness ... - that he's been under immense emotional and to some degree, considering his arena, profession pressure. That moment may have been the breaking point. Every man has one. So... not without compassion. Personally ...I would be interested in hearing Mr Rock's sentiments. I mean ... for all we know, what if he comes out with a statement that he was not aware or somehow has not been exposed to Jeda Smith's condition? Remote...sure.. But Will was unfortunately wrong for his actions. He appeared to be legit contrite in his statements at the Oscar podium moments later, but he needs to do more to atone.

GFS does this ever year ... circa mid March until early May even... It scrubs the initialization's radiative forcing out in time ... ( think that's what it's doing)... Whatever it does, it ends up back in January by the time it gets to D10 and beyond. It's s both a separate phenomenon/ .. model short-coming that's annoying ( and I'm beginning to wonder if I am the only person on the planet that's noticed this in springs), but also is different than the cold pattern between now and roughly April 7 we've been tracking. The latter should be exiting by the end of the first week of April. It goes wildly against it's own extended GEFs telecon numbers which neutralize the NAO hinting even positive, with -PNA by mid April. Pretty much opposite that look.

I've never run a marathon... I've never run more than 10 miles, actually. I don't really covet any ambition to do so - though I've been told I'm in like stage 4 of training for one, just doing what I've been doing for the past 5 -7 years. I run two to three 10 Ks per week. I ride 25 on stationary bike, or outside seasonal, twice per week. Then the other days full press elliptical. I work out every day... Usually something comes up in the sphere of friends or family that requires a day and that's how I 'work in' a day off from working out. I'm told I do too much. But I don't have knee or hip and foot issues. My doctor says that bullshit anyway... You do up to your tolerance ... it won't guarantee you live forever because we're all doomed eventually... but, the goal is to get to the finish line with less pumps and tubes and being propped up by big pharma. I'm ah .. middle age ( eh hm) and look young for my age - though I am at last salting some along the sides of my hair. Not bald(ing) though - I mean...not that there's anything wrong with bald dudes ... LOL just kidding. Anyway, the 4 stage shit ... I guess in that range, you stop the everyday stuff, and go to two 18 miles per week ... then your ready. I have no ambition to do a marathon and never have, though. At 5 or 7 miles, the points been made, the calories burned... the runner's elixir and mood reset succeeded. Plus, it only take 40 or 50 minutes.

Nary a trace here in Ayer ... interesting. But, looking at radar, 97.845% of the geographical region did not see anything from this "event" so I don't feel too left out LOL. But it somewhat does hearken back to that vicious morning WINDEX squall in Dec 2003, that strafed across Metrowest with a quick 1" and brought morning demographics to halt. It was a fascinating week. I lived in Winchester, Mass back then... Five or so days earlier...we had one of those 70/70 warm wash southerly gales with swept tropical rains, ending abruptly at 11pm (last couple of days of November) with a ribbon echo squall. We dropped back to the upper 40s type air mass for a day, and then we had two fronts, the first was a polar fropa. It arrived with those type of squalls the start as sprinkles with dark clouds at 45 F and you wonder what the dense gray curtain's going to contain - comes in like a wall of wind pushed grauple, which mixes in and big aggies take over. And just when the lawns start to look like the frosting on donut it stops... Two morning's later the arctic front arrived. It flashed the region from mid 30s to 28, with what might quantitatively register as the greatest impact 1 inch event in history... haha. No more...no less... --> grid lock. It was like 3 and 4 hour stoppages that morning. It made the news. I wanna say Dec 2nd or 3rd...? something like that. I remember the week being very staged downward, in a procession of events, the last of which landed us on the 5-7th, which hosted the big early snow. Man, I that early in the season, getting 17" of champagne, not more than 8 miles W of the ocean in Winchester. Temperatures in the mid teens with several near white out intervals ... that would have been the biggest event in my personal catalogue of experiences relative to date, but unfortunately for that storm ... that trophy has to go to April 1 1997. We did not have a white Xmas that year.