Typhoon Tip

I used to muse in writing years ago. There's a coarser sort of orbital perspective on this whole thing. '...It took this planet some three and one-half billion years to create and stow all these volatile, reactive fossil-fuel chemistries; humanity comes along with their innovating force and threatens to liberate all that storage back into the system in what amounts to just the last two centuries: How can that happen without consequence? ' Obviously there is some hyperbole gracing this delivery, intended to gaslight the intuitive, obvious answer to the question: We likely can't. We have not liberated ALL fossil-fuel volatile chemistry back to the reactive environment, not in just the last 200 years. However, the rate in mass conversion we are succeeding, in the delta, vastly exceeds any comparison to any Millennia prior to the Industrial Revolution. You know ... Archeological science approximates 400,000 years since the first Homo Sapiens would add proxy over fire, to their tool-chest. It can be argued, that was the moment in time that would inevitably lead to one day's shimmering brilliant achievement of humanity: Hiroshima. A dire story that took 400,000 years ( give or take ..) to play out its thematic arc. Yet, as 'hot' as Hiroshima was ... it doesn't even register on the same scale as the amount of energy being/been stored int the atmosphere by Anthropogenic Global Warming. A story-line that is still being written. Chapter one, Africa, 400,000 years ago. After an elevated dry-cumulonimbus generated a lightning bolt that set the savanna afire, instead of running along side with all the other animals, and probably, like most of the tribe did that faithful day, ..."Groont" lagged behind. He or she instead picked up a stick as it burned at one end. It was probably a she, then a male saw her do this, grabbed it from her. And after a moment or two of gazing into the plasma as it danced along the other end, his attention then drew toward the miasma rising at a distance. Purpose replaced fear, and thus humanity claimed "victory" over the 'strange orange light.' It would be ironic if that victory would ultimately lead to the greatest loss of all. It seems as though there must be some sort of as yet proven 'Law of uncertain quotas' in complex systems that perturb reality. Just knowing about the propagation of fractal systems, seems there has to be. Almost like an 'emergence product function.' It would go like, 'for every 1 direct result of cause --> effect produced, there are 3 emergence: a secondary ... a subsequent tertiary ( meaning emergent because of the 2nd order ),' and on and so one. Such that if there are 2 direct ... the subsequent polynomial becomes complex really quickly as we add more direct consequence - that don't have to be laterally related, just existing as a result of the primary event. This fiction or something like this may be why these "different" graphs keep materializing. If there were ten direct results of AGW, there is perhaps a logarithmic increase in plausible unknown, silent-to-the-observer systemic responses. Meanwhile humanity's genius after the fire ... like a Gulliver's Travels through the Millennia. We were perhaps by a quirk in evolution, inextricably enticed by the allure of innovation; but meddling results in being overcome by Lilliputians.

NAM came in at 18z with nada at Logan FOUS

If we can get the NAO recovery to stall, that’d transitively help confluence/llv cold. PNA is dipping neggie next weekend by a modest amount before what looks in the vague distance to be a positive reload. … about 4 days or so. Does offer cutter track activation in that window … If cold/ west limb neg NAO dams we SWFE/ overrun

He's making a statement based upon persistence and seasonal trend; completely valid approach and there's nothing really there that impugns his ability as a Meteorologist. Let's not jump on the pig pilin' parade float? Instead, judge the content on it's own merit ? That said, he may in fact not be good at his craft - I don't know the man. Don't follow his work. But that tweet in and of its self it perfectly valid. Fact of the matter is, it's been a game of postponing - he right.

I thought the EPS was better for the run up D 5--> 10 range last night. GEFs wasn't terrible either. The numerical EOFs didn't look terrible, with briefer -PNA returning neutral positive toward the 2nd week of Dec. They are missing some of the classic featuring in the mean layouts of the polar-stereographic views, but, there is a deep nadir/SPV over James Bay not really allowing much warmth N of IND-PHL ...some perhaps very brief in shunting warm sectors...But that look could end up with ice events. One thing I am concerned about is the look as though we are setting into a huge gradient over our hemisphere ...again - jesus I'm sick of that sonic speed look. Transporting S/W from California to the southern tip of Greenland at orbital velocities gets old. Anyway, folks mentioned volatility so...

I've personally noticed the GGEM's improvements, tho - competing with its self, it's better in that space then prior to a couple years ago when I noticed it abruptly started looking more "Euro like" one D4 to 6s. fwiw -

Yeah, I knew there was a subtler distinction between the two ( lazy ) but that's good rule of thumb re the stationary aspect. Interesting. But that bust was funny... man, "clear" - haha. That may be on par or even exceed the extraordinary Dec 23 1997, for me ... the first greatest bust of all personal witness'! And thankfully .. it was a "positive" bust. Night before official for Worcester MA up through Concord NH axis went something similar to, "Tonight: Increasingly clouds. Low in the upper 20s. Saturday, lights snow early, accumulating 1-3, mixing with rain, ending in the afternoon. High in the mid 30s" What happened? 18 to 24" with some towns getting 8 of that in a single hour, temperatures hammered down to mid 20s ... not mid 30s. The 2nd greatest bust of all personal witness notoriety was that infamous 48 hour in advance Blizzard Warning fiasco of Jan 1987 --> flurries NW of Boston through sun dimly visible. And the coup de grace was the 9F 32 mph wind gust walk to school that morning of "national guard on notice"... kidding but, that would be a negative bust, if anyone needs that defined -

oh, coming back to me. It's also based on the defunct NGM ... Man, I can't believe the NGM's been turned off that long. I don't know if this immediately applicable to the NAM .. I suspect it is?

yeah yeah that's it! cool

Oh it's most like a phantom event's reach-around puge tug while pulling out, no doubt. But it would be nice to see the Euro be oblivious to an event that is "10 KM" in grid spacing. heh

There's a NORLUN checklist ... shit, I used to have that on an old OS.. But that NAM QPF just looks like a NORLUN meso band

It's interesting how these IVT snow scenarios are like buck-shot in models. That may be last untamed frontier in forecast modeling performance, and that's where the IVT targets. The last 36 hours of models made this painfully clear that it wouldn't be a classic cyclone impact, but at the time ... IVT entered the discussion by spraying solutions everywhere. I remember this back all the way to the 1990s. I think there was a Norlun ( or IVT ...if there's a difference there), that gave PWM like 18 to 24" overnight on a headline graphic that had white states... oops. But models back in the day used to start sniffing the possibility out, and then every run would reposition the axis of QPF south of previous... If it came into the 60 hour range on you, it was an ordeal that verified south after pivoting that way in future guidance. It doesn't seem that sort of 'error prediction' happened here. It's been NYC, Berks... NE Mass...

... I've seen this happen in the past, a lot. Some model puts up an idea on some run along the way, and it is either ignored, laughed at, or just hm'ed. Then, yup ..said depiction goes away, and the notion to dismiss is validated. See? Except ... two or three cycles later, some other model does the same thing. What this tells us is that the idea was physically possible, more so than should have been dismissed out of hand. In this case, GGEM that we just got done impugning from that run *( well, I wonder if I am thinking of the same run cycle ), and here this NAM solution isn't hugely different than that in concept-result. Whether it is Berks, NYC or Logan aside... RGEM kinda gets a pat on the back "IF" these runs are in concert onto something. That remains to be seen...

Certainly feels like it out there.. wow.

The GGEM became noticeably better 2 years ago ... Nothing about that Tweet or the following commentary in stream - that I read with fairness .. - claims it to be the best. I realize you're just speaking in jest. The consensus of the enthusiasts and a lot of officiate ... not hard to imagine the consumers haven't been giving the GGEM much notice. It's understandable - its had a hard earned neg-head reputation. It hasn't scored the big coup call to help meme new street cred. We do it in here in this social media, how 'old habits' and reputations die hard. Be that as it may, I noticed that the GGEM was becoming more Euro like in the D4-6 range, about two years ago my self. I'm sure for those objective met efforts out there, they've been noticing this, too. - keep in mind, "better" does not sell "good" in this context. Just that within itself, it has improved. As to its "goodness" ..I haven't paid particularly close attention to its performance with the dailies/deterministic aspects, so won't comment either way. Whether these upgrades improve it further or not, time will tell.

You sound like you've been talking to Mike Ekster ..though it's been quite awhile since we had this discussion. We noticed something similar with the ETA some 12 years ago, actually. It wasn't in conjunction with the psychology of the 'clown maps'. It was an idea that as the model's grid and processing became "too discrete," it begins to perturb within its own processing, and then runs away with it. Sort of like creating process fractals - kind of an interesting hypothesis. Maybe something like this fills the gap -explanation between "drilling down" and "resulting" there ( conjecture )

I wish Pivotal wouldn't render it's heights in 3 dam intervals... annoying

I guess that's about the right timing ... Now that the front-side of winters book-end blocking is about behind us and the deeper heights of winter press S into the HC remnants ... here comes the velocity soaking to wreck the days - Warned this would happen ... 5 years ago, and have every autumn since. I'm being snarky a little .. but it will be interesting to see if this goes ahead and damps the cool enso signal as efficiently as it belated the the warm ones. It's hard to identify either in the base flow, when the base flow is gradient saturated - it overwhelms the physics of standard R-wave distribution.

Ok, looks like the geostrophic wind is 70 to 80kts in the ambience - Still, that's a velocity anomaly that's numerically absorbing individual S/Ws.

That extended layout in the oper. Euro is maddening. You have a positive anomaly in the H500 at 30 N, and a deep negative anomaly near 70 N ... so you have huge gradient spanning everywhere. The resting wind velocity is probably buck 10 from S of Alaska to ...somewhere out in the N Atl. S/W's typically tote wind maxes along with them ... less than that velocity. That's basically suppression madness -

Interested in seeing the 12z EPS mean from this morning... I mean I wrote about this above earlier this morning, too - how it is evidenced not just in the 00z EPS, but the GEFs too, how the operational Euro is flat flow happy compared to these other means.

Doesn't work out that way ..even 'relatively' That's actually a cold look for us overall, which may or may not be discerned depending on who's looking..heh. But that deep Canadian vortex helps to reservoir cold that gathers mass from D4 right out to D10. Subtle confluence in the flow in the incredible gradient that sets up is going to then displace that cold under the westerlies .. Looking at the the 850s and surface evolution, that is evidently so - uh... that is, relative to this run.

Sell

Not a bad a 'base-line expectation modulator' - haha... seriously though, wind direction wind direction wind direction. It's more about that really than the scalar oceanic SSTs. Not that you don't know this - just sayn' Take this beast ... turned out to be an absolutely juggernaut storm right down to Logan Airport, and mooshed the rain/snow line down to almost the Born Bridge over 51 F SSTs out there in the Harbor and surrounding the Bay... on December 6, 2003. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20031207.html I remember that event's vitals, vividly - those cartoon-like images provided in that link above ( note "previous" and "next" day buttons, top left and right of the interfacing...), can take the viewer through days, but it does show the crucial details too well... Those were being discussed in the background Met communities, contention, over how that high pressure up there was so ideally situated and would effect/affect matters. It was a nasty cold anomaly source, real blue knuckle numbing -10 F DP at Fryeburgh Maine type stuff, and it was nosing exactly, perfectly to absolutely stop any warm intrusion of marine air. Can it be made more clear than that? hahaha. Warm ocean or not, there was zero way the coastal boundary, the perfunctory formation in those sort of situations, could have been physically allowed to move inland. And ...that turned out to be the right call. I lived in Winchester Mass at the time, a quaint upscale town tucked NW of Boston, immediately astride I-93. Basically the the last depot along Belmont, Arlington, Winchester vestige-axis of early last century money, before Woburn sketchiness kicks in. Although Woburn lapse over Mall money ..so. Anyway, Winchester's located maybe ..10 mi from the Revere/Lynn beaches. We wind shattered 20" of 20::1, with white out conditions.. I don't know if we had a blizzard warn - I wanna say they upgraded in the throws of it but don't quote. I remember visually limited to not more than about a 16th/ mi for several hrs though. It was neat storm to geek out over, too. Harvey Leonard was doing cut -ins about the progress of the rain-snow line as it was collapsing SE. We were 19 F in Winchester when Logan plummeted from 41 to 32, as the wind shifted from ENE gusting to 50+, to NNE, across like 4 minutes. They flash transitioned to near white out, never went back, mid way through the event. And one could see the unusually well-defined transition line on radar. Places were locking water and slush on power lines in a 40 --> 24 F, 10 min transition as the CF passed through over SE zones...It was awesome to see. That high pressure up there was just that quintessentially placed, it utterly smashed any typical oceanic conventions.

The EPS mean from 00z, days 6 thru 10, argues pretty strongly the Euro is over-correcting with that complete reversal it sold on that run. I am not sure ( cross-guidance consideration ) the GEFs means agrees with that either. The recognizable polar-stereographic layout of 500 mb anomalies ( as well as the overnight telecons that are based upon those numerical values ) offer more 'buckled' PNAP than neutral. Both it, and the EPS mean, have a whopper Date Line positive anomaly, maintained across multi-day continuity mind you. The standard R-wave distribution ( as a plausible corrective forcing ), argues for lowering heights NE of Hawaii, which concomitantly leads to rising heights into western N/A as the mass-loading/telecon suggestion. Short version, less support in its own cluster, or cross guidance. The only reason I'm spending much time with this tedium is because if anything, there's a bit of a storm signal ...particularly D8-10 out there, as both EPS and GEFs mean appearing to be oscillating the hemispheric amplitude into a meridian tendency.. The the flat oscillation is actually D4-7 and the Euro just sort of locks that beyond which doesn't appear supported.