Typhoon Tip

I dunno. That looks like wet snow W-NW of KBOS looking over these FOUS intervals.

That in and of itself is not that crazy to me. I’ve seen short duration do this before in the past and it already did earlier this year. One might recall… It was 0 to 9 above and 24 hours later we had a rain storm. But I think that warm layer at 850 is not exceptionally intrusive - they’re calling it a torch. I don’t see it as a torch. I see it +3 …all we need is for this thing to have a little bit more vertical velocity and heavier precipitation and that would become isothermal around 0C. I also think that the 925 is gonna bust too warm. Could be wrong we’ll see

Hence the ice I guess. problem is the 850 mbar to goddamn weak. It’s trying to close off east of the Delmarva but still a south wind at that level up our way

I’m trying to figure out where is this warm up coming from. we are in danger of cold capping in here. It’s between 15 and 20° the dp of 10 in the area and cirrus overspreading. It’s gonna be dead calm tomorrow that looks like guidance is gonna bust too warm… 1997 started that way

?? me neither - I said banking La Nina climo, period. as in, "at all" ... or 'as much as it could,' might be more apropos. It's just that if it's decoupled that effectively should cut that factor from forcing circuitry. Yeah, the SSW is bit unusual to me. It seems these QBO -E have been pretty highly correlated in the past. Furthermore, we are in a solar minimum, which is also correlated. It's like converging statistical inference ...yet still nada. Interesting. I have been on it for over a month, and about a month ago, the extend GFS was really shining bright with thermal explosion in it's hour 240 thru 360... Then can kicking started.... that eventually faded into nothing to kick. I haven't exactly checked in 5 days at this point ...I've given up. Btw, we don't want one now, because it could blaze away and won't save winter. It'll ruins spring.

Basically ... it would not surprise me if the ambiance of the month ended up tinting that way - perhaps while no one is looking. Then wake on the 20th having been seduced from realizing how sore their butts were made along the way. Tries to get spring past us LOL. I'm not leaning that way now, but if in retrospect we were conned, at least one of us saw it coming. m'er f'er No but I don't think the climate signals are gone. I think they start rearing again, IF IF IF the -EPO- like cold dumps stop servicing like the Euro cuts off. I wonder if the EPS does that too, but we'll see - Euro could be bogus I guess I just don't see how/why we don't observe the same sort of aggressive temperature returns like we have spanning a lot of recent springs whenever that above took place, Feb-Mar. It's been repeating ... It seems we warm up when the fast flow lengthens the trough depths, and we get some early dry ridging... Then, mid late March the flow relaxes ( seasonally..) and for a month we get a 'slosh back' blocking that sets us up for packing pellets flurries on May 1. I hate it

I was just commenting on this over the Feb thread... spring on the D10 Euro big time. It looks hemispherically scaled, too. It may be bogus, but we've lost the quasi -EPO loading pulses that we've benefited from the last couple of weeks. The Euro still tries for the 14th but not very hard ... and then everything flips around Bringing it up because this in the foreground being all thickness challenged, then seeing that Euro ... I'm like "Uh oh - is spring beginning under our noses..." CPC's MJO tech discussion mentioned recently that the western and central Pacific circulation mode appears to be decoupled from the La Nina. If that is the case and persists... anyone banking on La Nina climate for spring may want to consider that. Anyway, I did not perceive marginal+ being so much of an issue as it [apparently] will for this "event", when this thread was started. I was thinking more marginal- I have mentioned this a few times in recent years - so wonder if I neglected.. We seem to have flipped our verification tendencies warm, instead of cold, when verifying marginal outlooks. We could almost depend on that being the other direction decade(s) ago. It's like a silent metric about CC ... If a charted event looked globular in the QPF, with lax hydrostatic hgt gradient around 540 dm in 1995, that was automatic blue bonnet surprise. This "might" just be an example of a how that is going the other way.

...now gone ... The GEF based telecon lost the +PNA surge too - and the individual members, one can see why. It's like the hemisphere up and abandoned. Here comes spring D9/10 on this 12z Euro run ...Deep cold retreats N of 55 across Canada and everyone S of the border is above 0C at 850 with continental conveyor from NM to Maine... Talking low 60s in mid Feb sun - not what winter enthusiasts want to see/hear. The last 6 years have seen some eerily warm spell events in February's and March's ... despite years having snow storms during those months - understood ... - the frequency began increasing going back really to 2012... I remember April was 90 on Easter sunday one of those years. Anyway, not saying that is the destiny this month, but I have been kind of waiting as a sidecar for early detection in the long range. The AO is positive. The NAO is positive. The PNA is holding out, but lost the surge... If the latter slumps negative I'm not sure I see how we don't soar, given the "local climate era" - not delving into cause.. just monkey see monkey do

This is a spring blue bonnet special - assuming anything comes of it. Even a minoring snow accumulation is going to be dependent upon falling through that type of sounding you describe, and magnitude/fall rates ...etc overcoming. It's moving metric. Some locals may flip between light rain and moderate 'chutes ... May as well be late March

Glad someone else noted the 500 mb moves ... I noticed the 00z run ( actually...) had rotated the trough more neutral as opposed to previous - which at that time the model's surface evolution was fine relative to itself. But what made that peculiar is that despite more neutral tilt, and somewhat more coherent local DPVA contained, the surface reflection on that run actually trend more SE than the 18z (ugh), a motif it continue in the 06z solution. But, this latter runs seems to be introducing a second aspect: it's blossoming a new QPF swath over SNE/CNE [apparently] driven almost entirely by emerging frontogenics. The 06z was also continuing along the improvement trend at 500 mb that began at 00z as described above - even slightly more so... It may be, that is how we get anything out of this. The 'mid level magic' as it were. There may be some sensitivity there...where the more the 500 mb leads to more of this latter production sequencing.. For the record, this did not congeal in the guidance as I first visualized it could - but again again again..this was advertised as low confidence, for minor to moderate. At the time there was nothing better to do, for one. But, there was also decent ens support; in fact, spread was west with some members even down as far as the 990 range. Not terrible, considering the footprint flow. There isn't as much L/W --> S/W interference ( manifested as gradient/ velocity saturation..). It is interesting that despite that, en masse, the cluster moved away from amplitude, when @ < 108 hours. I suppose if that sort of correction needs to be made, you want it out there instead of on the morning of the event.. huh. These S/W's being delivered from the Pac are kinda "short-bus" material. It also occurs to me that some of the extension west of these NAM QPF layouts have also likely been related to mid level forcing - weak, however doing so with a PWAT loaded S origin..etc. Lot of detail migraines. Including also that the NAM hasna NW bias for EC frontal positions and storm tracks > 48 hrs. I've not seen much in recent seasons to suggest that is not true any longer. I just saw this behavior this season several times - though subtle. That said, the 06z was also a 500 mb rotation of trough mechanics, too, and smears QPF back to ALB. The Euro has cyclogenesis, but limits any mid level aspect to not occurring at all. It'll be interesting to see which..

HA! yup ...said the same thing earlier.... It's more likely than not that is a legit signal blah blah... obviously that run sees the horizon features like the magnification of the moon rise.

Yeah ... looks like the interest might be shifting more E-CNE and Maine ... But, the 00z could bring it back ...etc... Folks should keep in mind that weak systems of this nature could actually snow pretty dense because we mustn't neglect where they are originating. It's congealing out of that deep subtropical easterly fetch ENE of Florida, and then gets captured by a weak N/stream... It's really a phasing of weak mechanics ... but then captured, it's likely to be pwat wealthy. It sucks that this is prime time seasonal snow storm and this is what we got to show for it - it's all we got. Not the thread for it but the Valentine's Day system is again presented on the 18z GFS. I bothered to check the ens means and 2/3rd carry the membership on that, and considering the numerical telecon [ appear to be ] bringing a new +PNA surge over the horizon of D10, well... we both know it's a hemispheric look. It's sucks when the Euro does this prematurely though, because one cannot start a thread for that without those images getting in the way lol.

Heh ..that Euro run looks similar to a couple of sale attempts it leveled at us prior to the blizzard last week ... 3 days before hand. This was a 'carte blanche run' ... basically, it only sees the potential, noting else, so is free to ceiling. I like the 6-8"/hr band with lightning from PSM to HFD on hour 216 on Pivotal's rendition - that'd be a hoot. But the most eye popping aspect about this Euro run is that by hr 222, that particular frame would have severe winter storm criteria simultaneously occurring from DCA to PHL-NYC-BOS. Now that's hard to do that... Usually, it's tapering PHL S when it's raging up this way...That "artistic" carte blanche solution concurrently locks the megaplex - right out my 9th grade math notebook LOL

Yeah, agreed on the Valentine (~) Day ... I cited that in the beginning of this thread; we've all been sort of eying that range. blah blah. It's showing up (hint) in the telecon spread. And seeing the 00z EPS with the +PNA pulsation on D9 ...probably sets the Euro operational up with a memo to go nuts on D9 and there we go... Notwithstanding that, it may in fact be a more prominent signal than this little guy in the foreground. But the necessity in the here and now is more because, whether it parlays favorably or not the risk is still real - it's something fun to watch in the meantime. 'Sides, official offices are nodding to it. It's not being pulled out of nothing. I admit ..it's not the prettiest of signals... But it's better than no signal.

Fwiw - Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 148 AM EST Sat Feb 5 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Feb 8 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 12 2022 ...Weather Highlights/Threats... A developing low pressure system off the Mid-Atlantic coast early in the week is likely to be close enough to produce a cold rain across eastern portions of New England and perhaps some snow for inland locations, depending on the eventual track of the surface low, so this event will continued to be monitored for future trends. Elsewhere across the nation, mainly dry conditions are expected for most areas, with the exception of some patchy areas of light snow over the Great Lakes region in association with the clipper systems, and some showers near the east coast of Florida with post-frontal onshore flow.

Heh... I think all private rec forms are legal use now? In Mass anywho. I was told by an off-duty officer that the same rules apply to DUI law, however... Maybe that will get finer tuned/codified, but it "seems" when the vote flipped the script, the systemic couching in was a first sorta 'guess' management tool. Anyway, I guess that makes sense? I don't know - I can't use Marry Jane. I tried it in my youth... Let's just leave it at some unsettling reaction. I'm not thrilled to use it because of that trauma. I am, however, thrilled that it is legal now - how many countless lives were ruined by what amounts (in my mind) to be puritanical heritage - Americana does have perhaps too many roots in early colonialism. Obviously, there's a whole sociological babble that is not appropriate to this thread ( hahaha), but that just being illegal was always suspect to me. I can't use it, personally. But I've never been around a marijuana fueled rage, or addict... and it has far to many benefits if used in moderation like anything else.

I don't remember that one ? ...I guess I can NCEP library that - is it an analog ?

Honestly ...I don't expect that to happen. Ha! If it turns into a "nice snowstorm," that would be a bit like accidentally inventing nitroglycerine. I mean there may be some subjectivity ... duh, in how we define adjectives like "nice," when using them to describe snow. And then stapling other adjectives like "storm" on the end of it... I really meant 'minor' and/or 'middling' - can someone PLEASE demonstrate this is getting across ? Anyway, I'm not sure these reconcile the former? I have to be fair, if ORH - CON-BGR axis pasted for > 6" ... that's not what I had in mind. I thought that might be more the ceiling for Taunton to Logan with metro west skimmed, up through PSM-PWM ... But, if it wants to evolve to more... I would say people should also pay attention to details when < 108 hours out, and the 00z EPS' 24 -hour d(hgts) through 90W digs some 6 dm straight up and down the trough. That's amount of amplitude increase is not as paramount as the move its self - maybe.. toggle between these if on a PC/Mac...not sure what you can do on your phones: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022020400&fh=96&dpdt=&mc=&r=nh&p=500h_anom&m=eps vs https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2022020400&fh=96&dpdt=&mc=&r=nh&p=500h_anom&m=eps

Sneak ?! ....this is starting to piss me off man lol, not you - hahaha... just in general. damn it - I mean, this may not happen... but people can't seem to read this without interpreting through an asshole filter. Everything I've said about this 'event' is f'ing clad true so for. I am not making this shit up. I do not have ambition - I am merely a fascinating miss-placed middle aged Met with no other outlet to vent my aspirations in this field, and you know what... ? People can bite me. And by the way... I AM WRONG ALL THE TIME. Rant over -

It hasn't been very convincing, no ... LOL - maybe replace 'convincing' with 'representative' as in ... at all. Firstly, minor to middling event, primarily for E and SE regions. That's not really changed. Admittedly, it would help if this thing would congeal a bit more. The 00z GGEM seems to like the event, as did the Euro, but the latter really is on the minoring side. You know, honestly, when I wrote that I wasn't even thinking in Ayer, MA ( situated NNE of Worcester by 25 mi). Either way, I was careful to point out the former bold content/aspects... Three points: - Some 'dependency' for this in that the field actually is okay for more amplitude. Often enough, when that canvas is observed, it is proven worthwhile to pay attention. Events will emerge given time. - If an event can condense out of the ether ..heh, it would be doing so in a marginal atmosphere, prior to March 1. That's not a slam dunk for rain, particularly when hydrostatic heights are at or < 540 dm range. The 06z NAM version shows how intensifying QPF through that thermal plumb immediately flips the ptype. I think the problem on guidance to this point, is that it's been too light - ... it may in fact go down that way. The top line in the thread also said, "Low confidence" - It was also made clear that some purpose for this thread's creation is because there's not much else going on ... The other option is 10 days of doldrums. I almost wonder if folks were not clear that the latter is the case, because there's seems to be an entitlement attitude to a steady diet of inspiring snow drama. Haha... in other words, the general reader needs to get with reality that this is a dearth period without this, and consider it a blessing really.

“…I'd stress minor to middling affects from this for now” The alternative is a lot of days of nothin - I think folks are attempting to reconcile expectation against present middling signal, which there is gap there. I mean it may improve … let that marinate from a position of more modest expectation and the purpose of this might work better for you.

Will brought it up …

By the way ... I started a thread for the first of the two possible events spanning the next 10 days. That being ~ Feb 8. It's modeled as a low return on investment right now, but it has a higher upside should stronger relaying S/W mechanics get involved. We don't have a have a lot of time.. maybe a one day's worth of cycles....eek. The one at mid month is also in there, but I don't like the models trying to re-introduce more gradient across the continent than we really need. That's likely to interfere negatively on phasing ...and wtf am I talking about at D9 ...but still -

That's yeah right where I'm heading with that 'blues' so we'll see. Looks like a candidate from this range. You know I think that April ?23rd? 1987 storm was one that was marginal and over achieved. I start thinking back on some of those that were like this in the mid range, and then even as they were happening ..the NOWS started flipping to crazy parachutes. The first of the two back-to-backs in Dec 1996 did that. I remember the cat paw rain and wet snow forecast go to uniform large aggs with with 4-6" in the Merrimack Valley not really well forecast. It seems we don't get those kind of positive busts as often anymore - probably hard to sneak one by with a colonoscopy of model probing tech now used cut up coke lines LOL ...

Will's right.. we start playing 'fake warmth' perception games - that time of the year. Nape days as it were. In fact, when it goes calm-ish, and the sun is allowed through, the "fake warmth" can con you into thinking it's actually warm. And it kind of is .. I mean I've seen it 55 F, ooa February 15, under 538 dm thickness and 0C at 850 mb, ... with mangled snow pack still in the region, too. It's super adiabatic in the lowest 300 ft ... That's in the 60s in March. But it's not really warm, as the sun kisses the tree line and 1/2 hour later it's 28. Maple sapping season gets under way -