Typhoon Tip

I was just mentioning over in the other thread ...heh, I wasn't paying attention but this intriguing for March climate. that's not just a spiked LI above a putrid BL that slices over for 20 minutes ahead of ribbon squall... The NAM ( notwithstanding..) is like sustaining 12 hours of regional LIs -2 to -4 over the whole area. There's also a lot of more synoptic scale/mechanical forcing then coming in over top so i don't know what the metrics for this sort of thing is for getting it done. i would almost imagine EOF0 and EOF1 type strafing across the area. I'm more of an SBCAPE/'cap' recess guy.

That's different.. interesting. the NAM holds the back door from invading eastern zones on this 12z guidance ... in March It had it that way for 4 cycles, and fits climate... So I guess we're sending a +24 2-meter high temp anomaly into eastern zones, unscathed. By the way, yeah... I wasn't even paying attention but that looks unusually convective later tomorrow for also March. I mean, regional LI's to -4 at this time of year, and not just spiking..but laid in as a slab of troposphere is interesting.

I think the gap in y'alls perspectives here is clearly "trend" Winterwolf probably had some snark internally as he was typing his/her original jest - sorry I have never met you. But, tamber of voice and intent cannot really be affectingly conveyed...so that didn't help. But, he would have done much better if he kept the argument as "trend tends to beget trend," which is a completely valid and less cracked-logical approach. The total manifold of causes and effects can remain imaginary, when discussing trend and persistence. Leave otherwise out of the discussion. Just ask the question, 'Is there any prominent reason of factor that indicates the persistence will not continue?' ... if the answer's no, his ending up at the statement, "I just knew it wouldn't -" has merit based upon that alone - which it does frankly ( to me). Oh, he/she could certainly caveat emptor with, "pending something that's yet to occur, intervening to break the trend" ..which would also be true. Fact of the matter is, these cold solution events have either left lots on tables, or failed, with persistence... Why that is ? I think it has something to do with the velocity saturation of the hemisphere. It's also something that's been going on a lot over recent winters, too - not just this one. We're still doing okay in the snow vs climo comparison ( more or less...). But that could be PWAT loading being CC higher, offsetting the exploded ravioli patterns. Just a personal hypothesis -

Yeah... I'm seeing the bowling season prospects "trying" to abolish in the runs... for lack of better word. I see radiative forcing is definitely screwing with the runs. The 12z versions are always colder than the 00z, for now 7 days worth of runs. And that's likely due to the grid initialization in situ to that time of day... which is highly attributable to diurnal thermal loading. The GFS does something every year that I have been noticing over the last decade. It takes that warmth, and then out in time it's like it scrubbing it from the run ...forgetting what season it is... It ends up regressing back some two week's worth of climo by the end of the extended - as a tendency mind you. It's more or less coherent. Anyway, more concisely I don't trust these cold looks as of this morning. I'm changing my opinion some - open to thing breaking warmer ...perhaps the models just cleansing it away every so often, sending out the 'we should keep and eye on x-y-z' vibes. I realize you have your own ideas on La Nina spring due to particulars in the layout out there in the Pacific, but the problems I have with any La Nina anything ...is that it has been stuttering to really stay coupled all year - which I have warning of that for 6 years now by the way... It's been doing that regardless of ENSOs. We need to start putting caveat emptor statements that at least acknowledges that propensity in our seasonal outlooks, I feel, going forward.. .but whatever - CPC is reporting a powerful MJO signature is possibly emerging, and it would be in constructive interference with the La Nina ... that might" be enough to recouple and then what? If it is your version of La Nina's influence, ...that can't really happen, because Phase 3-6 is does not correlate to blocking anywhere - not very well. That implies destructive interference, not constructive... so there is a conflict there. If it is CPC generic La Nina, than this could break warmer and the models are just doing typical seasonal grogginess So hopefully this gave everyone a popsicle headache hahaha

Ha, this sentiment suggests you know this region all-to-well. It's likely to happen ...but nailing the arrival timing is tricky. The total synopsis reveals today's balm is quite precarious. The models are building surface pressure in rapidity throughout Quebec during the day-light hours today. The surface pressure contouring in fact orients Brian and points north as though they are already behind the boundary, when no boundary hasn't actually gone through them - the mass field just rotates ... But this sets up the classic mass discontinuity, where NYC is lower in pressure than PWM and down the boundary rolls. The NAM has been hitting that timing arrival ~ 4pm for Rt 2 and the N. Shore Eastern New England's physical geography causes these pressure discontinuities to move SW. Because the elevation of NE PA to the Greens/White, produce a natural topographic barrier, and this causes an "implied" rolling motion to the the winds as that warm sector's wind motion you see here ( PA and southwest of there...), moves over then you get the eddy curl... It's similar to why there is east wind sometimes in the Plains ahead of a S/W nosing in from over the Rocky Mountains...only it does it at a smaller scale. Anyway, because we are right next door to cold Quebec and Canadian Maritime waters...those then mesh in dense chilly air. So you have constructive interference that really favors least excuse imagined to decouple the lower atmosphere from the mid levels. Think of it as opening a freezer door, and watching the steam roll across the floor. It's 10 F in the thin layer at the bottom? Well it's 38 in Boston and 72 in NYC. ...The fact that it seems to always happen during the Red Sox home opener series is a separate and arguable supernatural phenomenon, altogether.

Seriously? what the f is wrong with what I wrote about Mish, that set this shit into motion... man

Mixed indicators … in one possible reality Will and Scott’s colder profile and possible event is actually in some models. in the other, CPC’s powerful MJO/La Niña climate warm washes everything by the last week of the month - emerging in the models given time. either scenario gives room for cold next week. You may want to clear your calendar for at least that much. By then we’ll have a handle on whether deep spring really arrives the last week. It may be that we conjure up an exit event type deal 24/25th

Oh I’m just a cave man and your fancy typing machines frighten me … … now get me another Dewers and water

oh i didn't run that through any editing for grammar. there's probably miss placed comas and shit like that.

I knew her personally ...though we hadn't spoken in years - life distancing... But I interned with Harvey Leonard back in the autumn of 1996 into the winter of 1997, a time when she was still on the noon desk working as a colleague to him, and Todd Gross ..et al. We shared many chats. The night crew typically showed between 4 and 4:30.... I was there by 3:30, hanging charts and queueing digitals such as MOS and NWS texts/alerts as part of the gig. But she often hung around for awhile and we talked about aspects that ranged, some personal ... and of course, much about the weather. She was just like us in so many ways, for the passion of weather phenomenon. Her big core was convection, which mine was at the time - we regaled stories of our youth. I witness an F3 tornado carve a canyon straight though the business district of Kalamazoo Michigan, when I was boy .. 1980, May 13th. She, the same...as a similar destructive vortex stung through her neighborhood. She was somewhat younger then I, when witnessing her encounter. We were in our 20s back in those WHDH days. But we felt there was similarities in our backgrounds like that... The reason I'm revealing this is to let you all know, that I can assure you, she was not a climate denier. What she was concerned over, back then, was the absolute attribution of human activities as being the only cause. She also was miss-construed and framed improperly for her views on Vaccines. But vaccines have now taken on the same knee jerk trial and conviction --> career assassination shit as WOKE and 'Me Too' - where people are so willing, almost recreationally, to ruin lives based upon precise accuracy of the "public impression of what facts are". I had not spoken with her beyond an email exchanges since ... 2007 I want to say - I had not realized it was that long ago, until this horrible news struck like a sniper bullet. I have been forced to ponder matters. It's very very sad to me, because we were on the friend side of acquainted, sharing space and colloquy on so many occasions. I can assure you, knowing who she was, as I did back then, she was fully capable and willing, if confronted with science and empirically based causality, of amending her perspectives on matters. Those climate views being bandied about, were from 25 years ago people. Her most recent gig was in fact going to be a climate specialist/journalist - it would not shock me, knowing who she was, that it would be where she would atone if need be.

mm there's a Miller b out there on the GEFs mean ... sort of there in the 00z, but more coherent in the 12z, looks like late on the 24th through the 25th. not a lot of support for it suggestive of the numerical telecon, but the latter was calculated off the 00z, ... so there that. but also, the wave lengths are shorter, so those may not be as dependable - typical spring issue with those. We'll have to see... i was a proponent of this sort of relaxed flow/curvature having a window for a couple of weeks between the 15th and the April Fools... It's interesting that the MJO desk is speculating a warm anomaly. If they're onto something with that forcing ( strong Phase 4-6 constructively overlaying a warm La Nina spring climo...) than this stuff might get rudely usurped by a force the operational runs merely have not yet detected in the physics just yet. Somethong to keep in mind, too.

Yet this ... • The MJO has shown better signs of organization, which is reflected in the observational RMM index and upper-level velocity potential anomalies depicting the leading edge of the main convective envelope shifting eastward over Africa and the western Indian Ocean during the past week. • There is good agreement in the dynamical models favoring continued eastward propagation of the MJO across the Indian Ocean and into the Maritime Continent during the next two weeks. Several ensemble members suggest the possible development of a high amplitude event. • The enhanced phase of the MJO, as well as predicted Kelvin and Rossby wave activity, is expected to increase chances for tropical cyclone formation mainly over the Indian Ocean during the next two weeks. • The potential for the MJO to constructively interfere with the low frequency footprint would favor an extratropical response typical of La Niña, yielding warmer than normal temperatures across eastern North America later in March.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/big-oil-and-gas-kept-a-dirty-secret-for-decades-now-they-may-pay-the-price?utm_source=pocket-newtab

You and me both warned of this day ... I specifically posted, I'm not too keen on ( at the time... ) Thursday and Friday - as the vagaries of model and wind would have it, we'll salvage tomorrow+ ... most likely. But today? Some models at the time were suppressing this rhea wheel beneath a narrow ridge but that didn't fit the telecon for a neutral PNA positive NAO tapestry. Usually the EOFs win one way or the other. The question is how much of it -

What. I knew her personally what

It does but it also stresses believability too far when there are too few tools and metrics supporting those extreme cold intrusions at such continental scales for one. But at a canvased consideration … this isn’t exactly the Maunder Minimum world we’ve inherited here. 498 hydrostatic heights spanning the vastness of the NP and 504s to BUF should roll eyes first when considering after the Equinox … nothing else. not happenen James

Wow Fri. 18z NAM sends 2-m temps into the low 70s

There's no one-size-fits-all answer ... You didn't ask me - just sayn' You satisfy the east ends, the west get left in the dark(light) and vice versa ... and back and forth we go. If you wanna dig into philosophy of it, this contention only happened when humanity gained the ability to communicate in real time across long longitudinal distance ... Prior to that, this was never an issue anywhere. It's one in a many subtle examples of how our evolution has out paced the planetary system - now THAT is one helluva a mutation, huh -

Plausible often is not possible just sayn'

Yeah... this is my only peeve about it. I don't really give a ratz azz what happens otherwise with daylight in the winter, because it's not like I'm outside for any reason other than dashing between doors. There are supposed insurmountable issues to society but I find those arguments to be more if not evasive, really just being cow-tied to convention and/or personal wants, masquerading as hardships. If this were 1970s ... perhaps, but techno-cultural relativity gives something back to the other side of the debate. In this modernity there are ways and means to make it feasible.

So I guess I'm a douche about this particular subject matter because I've often fantasized that there should be a non-premises rule, restricting aberrant early access. That also would capture for Remote access, too. IT's can shut down VPN access based on a mouse click, and/or give it to selected IPs if in the case of emergencies...etc.. If someone wants to get up at 4:45 am that's fine. That's their business and life. But you work a full day between 9 and 5, just like everyone else, in a fairer distribution of competition. The reason work days get edged increasingly early over time is because of the unfair lead-in of the early advantageous. That's what starts the pull... But that is also causing stress to the majority ..as they have lives and often enough, valid reasons to not show up to work in the middle of the f'ing night.

Okay interesting. I was child in S. Lower Michigan through the early 80's ( as I date myself...). I thought back then they didn't move clocks? I dunno, but now that I think about it, I had forgotten that happened this Century. And I know what you mean about late setting sun in summer. Kalamazoo is right there.... same, with golden horizontal sun still shinning off the tops of the tallest trees at 930... with still legible light at 10, knowing it is only two hours until midnight ...is a rather weird state of affairs.

It's not likely to get that far inland where y'allz are... It was real this morning up this way, prior to 9 or 9:30 but area obs have since vastly improved. It appears to be absorbing in, and like Scott mentioned there are already signs of S flow taking over. As the sun warms and turns over the BL further, we'll probably see the surface mix out entirely up here where we are and bounce the temp.

There are two aspects to this for me: One: This is probably a wild notion on my part, but it's just a supposition. It seems there is an "apathy" to handed down wisdom ( understood to be meaningful/useful lore) that is become more and more the sociological behavioral norm. Flouting previous failure signals as such. I think that modernity and convenience addling is the problem. We really do live and breath and "resort" in times of relative hardships, to an embarrassment of recourse options compared 1900... 1950 was that much better. 2000 even more recourse aplenty. And despite the dangers continued Industrialism and its transformative power, unguided nor appropriately measured, invariably leading to x-y-x holocaust(s), we get richer. (Perhaps right up to the edge of our oblivion as a digression point). That is our reality here inside the "relative opulentia" of the Industrial bubble. With recourse comes less necessity for prudence, and thus... cutting hand-me-down lore of ways and means, at all scales. From the barns to Wall Street, to the White House. The information from forefathers is obviously listened to, but it is not really 'heard' like it used to be. It's like because there is not enough suffering from scarcity, people tend to nod at advice more so than take it very seriously and modulate their behavior, based on whatever's being handed down. I could see DST taking another trial swim... even though in the grand scheme as things ... the 1970s is a very very brief distance. But the lessons are in conceit or arrogance, not transmitting into this generation. Two: But there may be a difference now than a 1970s experiment. Perhaps the same powers/technology of modernity ...could also provide a different approach to application of DST in perpetuity. Firstly... Indiana and I think Arizona ( and there may be others ), I don't believe have ever messed with their clocks. Why not take a closer look and observe how their states go about the logistics and cogs of state vs private matters. Maybe their denizens hate it? Maybe the like what they have for a-b-c reason. Perhaps they don't have an opinion. ...Maybe those examples might lend some insight. Technology is transformative in how we live and carry about. There could if perhaps should be out of box thinking in how to use it to ameliorate all these "omg logistical can't happentisms" which are really based on of either fear, or insular inability to do just that: think outside the box and be creative with the powers/abilities in place.

you don't get to celebrate ...Not after all the troubles you put us through over snow and cold heartache. LOL