Typhoon Tip

I'm not to worried about it, seein' as you asked me and care what I think. no but the ensemble mean of all guidance, including its own GEFs, are no where near as prominent with that feature. Even the operational version of the Euro and GGEM are less amplified overall.

Gone mad or not... we are definitely behind recent year's behavior with our timing in particularly above ground deciduous species. Bushes and shrubs are leafed out, but even those appears stuck at 80% or so - they don't seem "full" The tree I lovingly refer to as 'General Sherman,' that looms over from its kitty-corner anchor at the nexus of three properties, including mine, is skeletal. Sucker stands some 70 or so foot maybe more, with a canopy span that's perhaps 2/3rds or more of that same distance. It's an old, old Sugar Maple... I'm guessing by the 4' ~ drunk diameter, probably got it's start around the Industrial Revolution. Anyway, Sherman's never gone this deep into spring without at minimum, notable swelled buds. As of yesterday, it had not. I haven't actually checked this morning... We pinged 73 yesterday and having stayed above the 30s overnight, who knows. Even the Silver Maple across the way, which tends to drop its reddish bud detritus by early April most years is being ambivalent about unfurling leaflets. That sucker usually has the beginnings of dappling shade over the road it claims by now... The only exception appears to be the Norwalks; they are flowered out now everywhere. I don't know how or why... "what" may be more apropos, decides when all that gets underway. It can't be the temperatures in April alone. That month was modestly above average. Maybe it's the behavior of the temperature some how. Could it be that plants are like humans, in that they get pissed off by shit-showing asshole cold windy days. That would be neat. I dunno.. but if I was tree stuck out there in this last month's piece of shitness I think I'd-a checked out too. Lol. Regarding that... I have a question... We have the running and then final average temperatures for the month of April. But those are doing the diurnal totals. I was wondering if the lows, or highs are averaged separately? Maybe the highs were below normal, and the lows were above normal ... but just by enough in the latter that it pulled the totals above.

Hey PF ... beware over-top May heat

Well that 66 at FIT and 64(?) at BED busted warm like we thought. Both bootlegged a 72 off 71.6 according to MESOWest... either way, good call there - Also, as Scott suspected, BOS had no chance of making 66 in a zip gradient full sun May day while there's super adiabatic overturning inland.

yeah... and the rain we had recently - all told I don't think it's ( fairly ) been that bad. I'll admit, as bad as the March 20 - May 20 time of year is both notorious, and earned for climate, we haven't head any of those week to 10-day long protracted wheel of wet deals that can often also be a part of the prison term. This years rendition of shit time of year has been more related to unrelenting poorly timed, cold, with what wind there has been, during day light hours related - it was taking the sun on mono e mono. But it has been particularly acute, despite data - sorry... the data and the daily weather experience do not always reflect one another. Said climo sites are barely plus for April ... T and P. Thing is, the summer's liable to be hot. That's my personal leaning idea for now... Responsibly? A couple of good 2-3" basin-wide griping, pissy post doom and gloom mood events before that heat arrives would be better for the region. Not likely get it... no.

I'm not 'as' pessimistic about this week. I'm between Scott, vs Kevin's spin tactic ( his intent and reason for doing so a complete mystery -).... but closer to Scott's side. I think we get into a light passage of showery rains tomorrow night and mid week, but I don't see the days troubled by those blue hydrostatic crayon lines. In fact, as an aside ... two days of runs consistently showing 0 snow blob ptypes on QPF charts anywhere in New England, is a stunning achievement either by the GFS, or just this 2022's particular spring's learning curve. Anyway, I'm not sure what the sun quota will be in between these maintenance rains, but with 850s above 0 now through all periods, it wouldn't take long to pop 10 F on top of a static morass - I mean just having that built in is a huge milestone - and notice? The month of Anus has to officially close before the models paint a portrait like that? I'm kidding but I'm glad it's over. The extended still looks like a pretty coherent paradigm shift takes place across the hemisphere. Moving toward -PNA, +(AO/NAO) in tandem is a huge total scaffold change from erstwhile Neutral/positve PNA with -(AO/NAO) Pretty much a diametric indicator. This was hinted off and on over the last week... Often times, major shifts do that before the telecon's bomb the current mode out there in time. The operational runs fight it too... The GGEM is the only one that really shows what that total manifold is capable of ...with 588 dm non -hydrostatic bubble inflating to almost DTX out there at the end of it's run. That model is still a Dr Jeckle and Hyde product and can't be trusted, but it is better than it used to be. Given that it fits the telecon of the GEF/cross-guidance suggestion, and the oper Euro and GFS have at least some semblance - though clearly they are doing everything electronically possible to damp it out for whatever reason... ( the anti- DIT factor? )... Anyway, model solutions "like" the GGEM's D8-10 movement might emerge going forward. Could be a warm mid month... And I'd also forward that 'over top' heat waves have been getting more common in recent decade springs. interesting...

Yeah ... this date could take first place in the diurnal recovery competition, no doubt. 33 to 36 at all home sites within a couple clicks of mi casa here in Ayer, where are all not 58, averaged. I man 20 to 24 recoveries by 9:15 am is like almost desert replace rates. Gettin a nerd chubby

Can you move those high temp aspects Scott and I just had over in the Anus thread to this one? I didn't realize we had a May thread going -

also, Scott and my conversation should be moved to the May thread - didn't know there was one ..

Actually ... at both sides. I think Fit to Bed are underdone. 900 mb's all the way to 11 C by 4pm ... straight adiabat would support those temps, but we have dual factoring of d-slope trajectory ( albeit light) under about as utterly clean unfiltered solar as can be physically possible in Earth space. SO, the 2-meter seems it should make 72.. It's a silly minor tedium and not meant to criticize NWS or nothin' I'm just curious how it ends up. But BOS seems it should flip on shore with the light wind field, no doubt...off Harbor SST makes 66 seem a bit lofty out there on the ice float heh

It'll be an interesting minor test today wrt these NWS forecast high temps..

Imho ..the biggest defining factor and difference today isn't the 5 extra degrees ... which don't me wrong, very grateful! But sans the wind makes for a HUGE improvement.

This may be the diurnal winner of the year. wow. 28 here just prior to dawn, now 59.

mm. The AO flips dramatically positive in the GEF/American telecon - decent agreement among members considering the time of year, too. The NAO neutralizes over the next week, then... the mean creeps positive into the 2nd week of May. The PNA has corrected down, now sloping negative for a total -D(index) of 2 standard deviations in 10 day? Despite where we've been and/or how ever impossible it is to imagine that being the case in this Stockholm prison camp known as the month of Anus in New England, that's a heat signal out there. Yup - But by heat signal I don't mean "heat wave" per se. It means a paradigm shift away from achieving above normal temps in a cold pattern ( ) bullshit, toward one where every metric is above normal - measure and feel. We'll have to see how persistent this signal is.. It's a mode change - but all fields involved signaling, it's a hemispheric guard change. Nods given due to the weight of having all these fields flagging warmth ... I'd say post to the 7th at minimum but more like approaching May 10 - could be faster with radiative forcing ...

My lawn needs mowing ... shit

Deutche Bank predicts a recession ... and so shouldn't anyone with a modicum of global awareness. heh

It's a little bit on the chilly side and sub- top 10 spring for my taste but - heh...j/k

Heh... could be that too - but nah... Just what I gather from wading through the weeds of American weather posting

Just musing: Something strange is going on with the numbers, something I've noticed for a while actually. It feels chilly when above normal now - Some of that, I suspect is because as noted over the recent 10 ... 20 years of global climate monitoring, and is showing likewise in local numbers, much of the above normal results have been because of the nighttime contribution, which have been the warmer of the night vs days. If it's 50 for a low, and the average low is 44 ( say..), but the next day is 70 when the average high is 69, that's almost unknowable to the average civilian just how warm it has been. But when it is perceived chillier, wind of any amount will tend to gnaw at one's nerves. Irony is that wind at 50 or 44 at night is going to suck either way. It doesn't have to even be windier than normal. Moving cold air is unpleasant.

two schools ... one, tonight could be a tick or two colder even than that. The gradient is already down as of this morning, but will be flattened to nil tonight. Star lit busted open sky will radiate away and decouple a nasty surface layer of popsicle headache ... last month. two, it's late in the month of Anus now with intense sun. There will be a ton to radiate. The earth and all physicality exposed to the sun today will absorb to maximum potential. The chilly air will eat some of that away, but it will be minor compared to the total flux. The Earth surface is green(ing), adding some minor evaporation and together ... this is like a heat battery. Unlike a month ago, that 'battery' has that large and growing larger by day capacity. We'll still radiate a prized hog's ass amount tonight but, we'll also thus have a lot to bleed off. It'll be an interesting ...albeit a truly 'life fulfilling' tedious weinershnitzel experiment to see if tonight: the skies stay clear in the same essential air mass over the same essential earth terrain most importantly, the wind is in fact more calm; not just surface but up thru the boundary layer ... how the low temperatures respond. I mean what else are you gonna do? get laid - ... This is way more compelling.

Hmm. personally I think a C has to be on the average with modest tolerance in either direction. … I’m assuming people are grading snow as the primary subjective weighting. Just trying to have some kind of consistently cogent criteria. Fir every partial grade, up or down, requires 10% +- So 10% below normal = C- … 10% above = C+ … and on and so on. I don’t do the seasonal grade thing but if I did, I’d try to follow something like that. Such that … what is that, 70% above normal is equivalent to an A+. So in order to pass the winter cannot be less than -40 (C-, D+, D, D-) % Thing is … even tho that would be arithmetically fair … people get pissed the closer to average things are shaking out and would court yard judge it worse. So much below C- is likely why so many Fs.

I’m wondering if it’s gonna be a cool asshole boring summer … Conventional wisdom coming of La Niña (I thought ?) winter/spring typically went on to warm summers. I may not be right about that. But suppose I am … when I think back to other hot summers it seemed like they didn’t come out of the gates this way. They were done stuffing -2sd cold turds down our throats by mid March. 1976 … 2012 these were preceded by weak to moderate Niña I have a personal competing concept, tho. I’m not sure these ENSOs are the same in how they interact/force circulation modes like they used to before 10 … especially 20 years ago. They’ve been uncoupling more frequently than my love life, leaving forecasts rather stranded at times. Niña may not mean much. I mean if the hemisphere flips script and gets hot I’m sure Niña will get merit award but who knows.

Congrats on your -15 high temp.

I’m wondering how NASA’s April climate report shakes out the anomaly distributions (globally). I’m curious if like the entire planet’s cooling offset budget was over us. Haha. I mean despite our feeble positive anomalies (are they even gonna survive the next 48 hrs?) … we could be cooler relative to everywhere else …

How about, 55 on Anus 28 is dogshit tho.