Typhoon Tip

Sunday would be the better of the two. Not sure Saturday if the 300mb RH allows enough solar to offset an onshore flow/ 60 at Portland. The N extent of the U/A diffluence fan is above that latitude, and it's >80% all day tomorrow. 855 -500 is dry... < 50% along the sharp gradient in SNE like you say, but that has upper deck spoilage written all over it. And with E wind of Labrador's blue balls ... good luck with 60 at PWM on tomorrow. But, ...not gonna say it can't. Sometimes these upper ceilings are not handled as well as the main UVM region of the atmosphere beneath.

Those that hail from SE zones would be insufferable under that OE band ?

Looked to me like the Euro trended S fairly significantly ... Not out of it, no - but doesn't appear to even wet the roads in HFD-PVD at closest pass. I really don't give a shyte about this coastal thing, frankly. I was pretty certain there'd be something smearing east out of the OV over this weekend - it's been on the charts for days and days actually... What's pissin' me off is what the models do with it deep into next week. It's a weak low, but strangely giant only in the spacial metric - enough so to proxy the weather from Florida to Maine... stealing the entire first seasons warm ridge from finally getting these large stemmed deciduous trees to finally leaf out.. - a nnoying. Anyway, another bump like that by the Euro and Sunday ends up turning sunnier. Still likely dealing with an E tube of Labrador fart but we'll see.

Right, right... should be a nice dreamy inspiring 56 F down by the water front -

It may just be a slow cook ... KFIT and KASH are both at/within 5 of the machine guidance of 70 and 69 respectively. I guess if we make 68 at these sites it's not too bad. Typically on the day like today at this time of year ...this has bust the other direction written all over it - for whatever reason, that won't likely be the case this time. ...while the world continues to put up warmest this that or the other -

Two schools on that ... 1 ... The NAM is squarely in the 60 hour window for NW bias with coastals. There are other guidance still S with rain on Saturday, enough to wonder if 06z/12z were just bias runs. 2 ... The climate of this spring has presented a leitmotif in verifying miserable ... relative to all possibilities in play that could/would have allowed for something better. The verification found the worse weather relative to the input. A persistence I am not sure won't just repeat here... Not a very scientific approach - no. But, it's hard to knock consistency.

Where's this warm air today ...? It's 11 and 57 here ... It's not doing 70.

06z GFS is more sensible with that thing. I think the transition time ... Sunday through next Tues/Wed is too conserved by prior runs. They are/were exaggerating the momentum that ends up in that thing - or just plain exaggerating it's spatial dimension. It lacks too much baroclinic gradients going in, and subsequently is normalizing after the fact. It's probably not as capable as the 00z versions were at menacing an impact so pervasively. It's a tedious difference, but one with huge ramifications for sensible weather: It's either fair and a warming trend vs complete rectal spray out of an exploding whale corpse. One or the other ... hard difference. Can't turn the flow SE at this time of year for any reason and ever have any other outcome than justifying leaving this area of the country out of frustration.

As an aside, ... air mass supporting snow May 20th on the 06z GFS... no problem - right? 4th warmest spring in global history - still snowing in New England a mere month before the Solstice. Makes perfect sense. Something I've noticed for years...how it seems NASA's state of the climate publications since the year 2000, ~ 2/3rds of the months ( guesstimate) have a relative bottom out of temperatures if not over New England ... within distance of this region. There's something about how CC is driving the Pacific relay over N/A ... causing the continental folding - like a planetary scaled Kelvin Hemholtz wave. Stronger westerlies lagging later in the years... is going to go N due to corriolis as it encounters the western N/A topographic barrier... After which, the coupling at large scale drives exaggerated compensating mass flow SE into SE Canada. It may not represent on a daily chart - per se ... But it's like an 'implied' systemic vector forcing that expresses sort of insidiously. We end up above normal here, but not as much as other areas of the world per-annum.

GFS wasn't much better ( 00z)... I've been around a lot of years and have suffered these spring/west Atl cut-offs in varying forms and degrees. They due tend to (unfortunately) evolve when the PNA flips negative, and the westerlies abruptly pull out. That much is consistent with climatology.. But, usually the resulting circulation is deeper than 1010 mb. This is only 1010 mb, yet it takes proxy on the lower troposhere from Main to Florida like that? that's unusual. 1010 located off the lower MA does not typically send long swell and gust winds into Logan. That is the oddity of that 00z outlook. I'd say I am inclined to go with the GGEM for it's subdued, less pervasively scaling ...which seems more consistent with a system that doesn't really have the physical manifold to even drill much of a low to the surface...etc, 'cept that that model sucks donkey ballz. So the one model that seems more sensible is the least useful for that range - great. But the Euro and GFS don't have low much deeper than 1010 either - it's just odd that they menace a E trade component that's almost 1000 naut miles of latitude coming into the EC.

I’m hoping all Mother's Day weekend gets claimed … then, Mem Day 4th of July and Labor Day …

Exactly. And it’s aggravatingly so obviously predictable too, Will Smith setting a precedence for f*ck nut Americana ...

Will Smith’s event now paying off in such wonderful cultural dividends “Dave Chappelle releases first statement about 'unsettling' attack” …I don’t believe this Chappell incident of brazen audience audacity in unrestrained behavior, is completely without Will’s example to follow.

Unlikely … bearing in mind that nighttime lows have owned the ballast of positive anomalies in recent decadal era, that is physically caused by elevated ambient dew points - which is a concomitant aspect of CC … ( warming results in increased evaporation —> elevating WV, predicted by climate models and observably bearing out ) Heh. It’s analogous to institutional humidity. Lol. It’s built in, in other words and quite likely that miasma is the new paradigm. Unless we cap frequently … in which yeah … it may not rain much but the heat over 75 dps’ll be relentless. Not sure that kind of dry folks have in mind? Dont think it’ll be a Kansas summer tho.

Oh ur f’ed good and proper down there. All do sympathies.

Actually ...Sunday might not turn out too bad if the GFS is right. I haven't really been looking at the weekend - I just assumed it was 86'ed with the NAO still trying to block and that thing going under... But the Euro is decidedly piece of shittier than the GFS lol. GFS appears that Saturday morning's about as close as that gets, CT-RI wet...and then by evening it's descended S... High clouds probably Sunday There'll be an east wind but the gradient is light, the llv RH is 50% or less so it's dry at least. Cool. Shitty but a little less stench.

Let's see if we can go for 2 years in a row of all warm season holidays having 0 redemption across the board.... Mother's day, 2022 kicks of the shit showing... Next up on the eerily metaphysical attack is Mem Day... lol

Then consider yourself in a charmed existence ... The entire planet in fact, happens to be captive audience to a slow moving environmental holocaust because of climate changing too fast for too many adaptation rates to maintain a stable, healthy biosphere... Is that soon enough ?? Haha lol... I know what you mean, but I found the statement ironic. Tomorrow will be 70 to 73 accompanied by caressing zephyrs, while a very warm May sun 'summerizes' the affair.

Right ... as miserable soul sucking demoralizing as this fun killer weather is ... it's really farmer's gold for lawn care. Grasses love this salad shit. My lawn inspires the appetite it's so deliciously green. It's like everything not to wanna head out there with Italian dressing and oregano

In any case ... it's more likely that oddity would 'delay,' rather than enforcing a missed warm-up, anyway. The telecon spread signals a warm 'mid month' - that's a bit longer than just D6-7-8, first of all. But these operational runs, GGEM and GFS have susbtantial ridging continuing right through D10. It seems to be growing more likely that above normal's going to happen.

I wouldn't trust the GFS run... It's almost like NOAA's modelers deliberately parameterized the thing to punch holes in ridges... Kidding... but that's an excessive looking feed-back scenario there. There's likely to be something whirling there but not that spatially owned. One thing I am also noticing over the last several runs... several days worth, is the handling of this little critter S/W that's almost nondescriptly sneaking in, as the D(NAO) is flipping signs... If you toggle/loop.... that little gnat of an innocuous feature gets dumped in. GFS has been stubborn about that subtle momentum getting tossed backward... The Euro was kind of onto that sort of subtle/insidious stream addition too, as of last night's run. We'll have to see... I believe a weakness if not a cut-off contour. The +D(NAO) is quite rapid in execution, and whatever happens to be in the flow there is likely to be ambered in once the westerlies lift out. But the propensity for the outer mid range/extended to magnify/enhance in that range, leaves me somewhat skeptical of that gutted ridge look.

I don't like personally running in the cold either... I mean, I hear others that run, some regularly gush about 50s being ideal - uh...really? I like it about 66 to 72. Sweat kicks in by mile two, and then that's plenty of cooling through evaporation to not get too hot. Above that... yeah, if it's very sunny and still air, ...open terrain with no shade, that goes the other way. 80 F is too warm for example. But I have... I once ran in 89 F because the gym was closed and needed to get my 5 miles in. Oh man - I think it took two days to shake that weird feeling that it left behind. I was pie -eyed when I came down my street and set to walking it off, but had to get to the sink for cold water on the neck. I think I borderline overheated. But less than about 65 is doable but for every degree down, ... by the low 50s? I've spent too much time up front getting lithe and lubed by my own body heat... Then the run's over. Don't feel like I even sweat enough because of it. I even think the next day something is arguing and achy for doing it more so. Cold sucks. It pulls the will out of you. And putting up those tepid times like you described doesn't surprise me. But everyone's got their range. For some... running in cold is preferred.

Hopefully these NAM metrics are right about tomorrow. Should be nearing 70 by 21Z ... if not 72, with light NW wind, very little cloud contamination. Purified post frontal air mass too. It's one of these 'warmer after the cold front' deals. Helped along by d-slope flow, and the fact that the actual amount of cold advection behind the front is too weak to offset the May sun. Nice! Anyway, could be a couple of hammock hours tomorrow mid- late afternoon. It would be starkly contrasting to that misty murk out there today...

It's odd seeing the GFS get the adiabatic temperatures all the way to (ave) 86 next Thursday across the breadth of the area ... when the model had been fighting off this warm signal at least excuse imagined - reversed with the Euro, which now challenges whether the deeper warmth gets in here because of it's oblong/stalled surface high parked due E of Logan's latitude like that. That thing would drill CCB clear to Albany ... (hyperbole but yeah-) The 06z's, 18z GFS 2-meter vision for next Thursday is probably 92. I don't know why those products label "2-meter temperatures," when it is abundantly clear that maps are limited to the linear adiabats. They don't/probably can't calc the bottom 100 meters of the sounding where it slopes log to the right like a knife blade nearing the surface(s), where the 2-meter actually is! Friday back doors badly .. not sure folks are seeing that? But... f if it's 8 days out.. probably won't exist Actually all these details are almost useless... heh. I mean this signal is still emerging/evolving in the runs. I'm not even sure how much of that cut -off momentum is really true.. Talking 7 days away. If that's weaker (say), then it acts less like an inverted block, and that high settles S-SE of our latitudes faster. We get more robust heat in here sooner - cannot be precluded at this range. Telecons favor a warm anomaly over eastern N/A; we are still where we were 4 or 5 days ago when I mentioned that warmer solutions should begin to emerge.

Why are people seemingly compelled to make this comparison all the time, "...If this were winter -" Silly ... childlike might be apropos. Don't get me wrong, I also think a lot of adults in the world could use a little 'child,' but as a metaphor for keeping an optimistic vigil, ..willingness to be open minded, see the fun..etc. But in the former context, as it pertains to qualitative observation of model cinematics ... it's unsophisticated. A slow moving non-synoptic thunderstorm drops 3" of rain over a freak hour, and it's, "If that happened in winter -" Let's ask the question: 'When was the last time there was a slow moving non-synoptic thunderstorm in winter ?' It seems to me, the physics of the leading environments, winter vs [not winter], are intrinsically different; such that the emergence of anything would have to also be physically, intrinsically different. Apples vs oranges... There is almost no meaningfulness in drafting the comparison... People should just say what is really on their mind: 'God, what I'd give to see 30" of snow in under an hour with vivid lightning and 70 mph outflow gust front...with a dangling wall cloud near the right-rear flank..." etc etc... Because that's got sooo much possibility of actually happening out here the reality of space-time-Earth continuum's menagerie of events. That suppressed wave over the M/A wouldn't exist if this were January, because the N stream would be rolling along, governed by Rosby scaled forcing that doesn't exist now. I guess to be fair and machine like ... yeah okay, there have been suppressed MA events that didn't involve SNE - in a vacuum, that statement is true. But at that point it also just becomes arbitrary.