Typhoon Tip

Nah. High School

I actually liked that song back then. This girl in my history class had a bum sculpted out of God’s clay. She was a tad weird in the face tho, and seein’ as I had all the profundity of the average spiritually enlightened 16 year old to go with zip self esteem. It’s funny how music takes you to a setting or person or experience in time, flashes of nostalgic light briefly illuminate the reel of memory. But that song was popular around then … it’s really not very good music. Guilty sing along.

Lol. I really wish these signals would stop being referred to as “threats“ – I mean it really sets the wrong tonality like lacking restraint-which is something that’s very much needed for a group that seems to be too emotionally invested too quickly. Yada yada yada.

It’s interesting how this whole 12th through the 16th for days span has been lit up in the ensembles for so long…

It’s actually the more convincing of the two to be frank.

Essentially… Yes but at this range you know I wouldn’t be surprised if this coalesced on one of those two dates preferably in the future? That’s not unprecedented model behavior. either that or… There are two events shortly spaced within 60 hours of each other but they’re more pedestrian in nature

Suspicious that’s why the MJO is finally finding the strength to move through phases 8-1-2. Seems to be there’s some constructive interference going on there. The only contention I have other than the fact that it’s completely decoupling from the La Niña Basin … Is that the last I was aware most of the wave momentum was south of the equator. The weekly MJO publication mentioned that those phase is correlate to colder weather over North America… obviously they are right but they’re doing it in the context of this being conflicting signals.

Also I remember looking at the 06Z this morning and thinking boy… That’s really close to becoming a much bigger ordeal

Classic subsume phase scenario… Very high proficiency at that. There’s no ejecta indicating that the southern stream does not outpace; it literally turns into one singular coherent vortex. So yeah all the obvious… In terms of objective skepticism take your pick -there’s a lot of them for this. To that I will only say that the period between the 12th and 15th yada yada yada has been quite prevalent in the ensemble members. It’s kind of like the mode and the mean are a little extra different in this case… despite not really fitting into the index indicators, either. At least not very well. In fact I can’t see any numerical Tele connector that supports this kind of West Atlantic bombogenesis interesting

Starting to get that vibe tho - not committed to it or anything but it is sort of felt a little. I would never commit to it before the end of the solar min ~ Feb 10. Excessive warmth in January is truly eerily outre ( real word; poetically it means ‘unworldly’). You can go for walks in awe … looking around sort of up in angles … as though the homage to warm season put on by air sort of compels you look for it … to no avail of course. Everything contained inside that anachronistic state still remains dormant and ultimately … unappealing. Even ‘unhealthy’ or wrong. Anyway .. lots of ways to define that. For me, I’ve taken that stroll a few times. 1989 … 2007 come to mind. I’d rather not, not until after that first week of February. We escape the min and then begins an experience a little less unsettling ..Warmer sun makes it feel less weird. And it’s a waste otherwise… because like I said it’s not like we’re getting growth from foliage, greening lawns and the smell of lilacs. In fact I think there’s a lot of putrid aromas that start to manifest when it’s in the mid 60s to low 70s in January. Back 1989 I was doing the urban jungle thing with a drinking buddy in faux summer Boston, and it smelled like a dumpster fire might have been in the next street over. And then in 2007.. I was going on runs in the afternoon in suburbia whence the more bucolic variant of that was like the season’s trash was left to a fetid morass … Aromas came by along the way that made you hesitate to take the next breath - while running no less. If it’s like that EPS complexion nearing the end of the first week of February? I definitely will have zero problem tuning out this year.

Not completely sold on the 9th..10th. There’s something sort of there but the models are having trouble with detection … no doubt owing to the fact that it’s “sub index scale”, within the total circulation mechanical envelope. “Little critters that bite”, quoting Bozart. Shouldn’t be completely ignored but because of the nature of its dwarfism having smaller physical presence the models are probably going to have trouble with whether it can “bite” or not, and where.

18z ICON would extrapolate well re the 9th. GFS now cat paw QPF/..trended. Low end mechanics tho

- GFS is getting happy with the N-stream ...bullying the hemisphere E of 110 W and above 40N out there. This is actually fairly typical for this guidance. Not sure how that corrects when/if it backs off on that - MJO may be less forcing given to the momentum distribution ... as modeled. However, the current behavior of the Pacific polar jet, across the Basin is rather atypical for La Nina, indicating some decoupling is likely taken(ing) place. This latter facet does lend to MJO punching through the La Nina 'firewall'. Last year something similar happened with a strong wave presentation around Phase 8 and 70..80% of the ballast was 10 S of the equator. That matters. That said, the Basin's NINO look may be receptive/entice the wave to span. What's the SOI outlook? - 12th thru the 15th are still eligible, just by numbers of respective ensemble membership. The operational version of both clusters appear to be flat outliers. No help from the teleconnectors ...as there are two events possible ( really) through the 16th, and they are sub-index mass conservation so it's going to come down to ensemble trends more so than waiting on emergence for these.

Day 10 ...simple

there are Kocin/Ucellini case studies of straight shot waves that rolled up upon hitting the EC longitude, with limited aft ridging to complete the total more typified planetary wave structure. I think folks get to hung up on idealized form ...and tend to start hand waving too soon when those features don't fit that preconception ... a lot faster than the should be,.

Kung Fu sucks. Dangerous sport.

If he’s being intubated that’s not it

In this post WOKE zeitgeist? - there’s no way they’d finish that game.

There’s a genetic condition where excessive exertion can actually cause the heart to weaken. It happens in soccer or is exposed rather more often than football American. But it strikes me in that replay like that’s what that was. But will have to get the official.

How do you know that detail

This time period we should keep an open mind about.

Not sure what the big deal is... It's only annoying if you bother to read it. Here's an idea, ... how modular is this software? Can it be added to?? There could be a three button selections added, where the post won't post unless one of the buttons/ ( use radio buttons) is selected. The options are, constructive comment, commiseration/bitching, ...I think my trolling is subversive enough and no one sees what I'm up to... No but something like that. Then, each post has a green, yellow and red small bar, where green is constructive, yellow is bitch session. Then a user can go into their profile settings and select, "only read green posts" ...and on and so on. I mean, obviously ...no troll is going to openly admit their a douche so that button's more a gag. But that way, the person is personally holding themselves accountable for their contribution. If they then get 5 pp'ed, and or suspended for a time, or banned, you can hand them their statistics. Every person is afforded one bitch session a day ...week, whatever. I have a feeling that engineering "solutions" won't work. With all the advertising this site tries to expose, it's obviously adding up hits on the site. So we can't really get into the habit of shutting hits down. Humanity IS in fact big trolling douchebag of dysfunctional assholes, in a jejune act of constructivism only when aspects are feeding their psychotropic addiction to 'blue light' dystopian cinema, ...so, successfully limiting would make this no longer economically viable. L O L, but I'm not a cynical at all -

Provides a learning op, to explore why one 'needs' them to look like anything at all, other than what they are - tools in a tool chest. Heh, imagine someone that once saw a screw driver turn a screw, and they were so enamored by the screw's turning that they have to look at their tool chest and the screw driver every 6 hours..."weather" there are any screws to turn or not. Kind of a 'screwy' metaphor but hey. Seriously though...these were tools invented ...I guess the rudiments of them were mid last Century, but computing power was advancing in tandem. But in modernity, the liquid access to them, in loops and so forth, and varying dimensions ..et al. It really is like a cinema, a new movie, telling "meta" verse version, every 6 hours. There's a difference in this kind of cinema, though. Very big one. This one has a chance to become real - that gives it a personal connection to people, obviously that would be the case. Doesn't take a psycho dissertation to advance that hypothesis. I dunno. Maybe thinking about this stuff, even if only half on point and true, is enough to mitigate some of the model 'd-drip' reliance. It's kind of a guilty pleasure to engage in it to be 'triggered' in that way, anyway. Hopefully, it doesn't affect one's mood outside of the engagement - but I suspect it kinda does...

Just stating the obvious but yeah ..that signal's been there for a week or more. It's ranged from the 12th to 16th actually, moving to and fro within that range. It's interesting that it's still there, despite having very little numerical teleconnection support. The PNA spike you are talking about - I think that is more expression in the PNAP ( or perennial north american pattern )? The numerical -based curve at CPC does not flag index-scaled event, at all. So that's probably what that is, in that time range. A sub-index event ...well, sub "main" index perhaps.

It does kind of make one wonder if this is all prologue to some kind of fluke February heat burst ridge. We had something similar to that ... at least 3 times in the last 7 year's worth of winters. I recall each one, where nestled in a week of general excessive positive anomalies both in surface and aloft with the synoptic metrics, ...we put up temperatures close to if not exceeding 80 F ...in February. Those happened in both ENSO states, btw Plus currently what's happening in midriff latitudes of Europe... To mention, C-fuckum-C. Also, La Nina climatology has a precedence of early springs. Some of the more notable NE U.S. SE Canadian warm springs in history were preceded by La Ninas... we weren't coupled very well last year or the year before, either. Assuming we do couple with that base-line ENSO state ...these current model projections that completely and utterly took the rug out from under the erstwhile +PNA look out there in time we had been following hmm. You know, they may not happen and it may prove hiccup cycle, but if we end up in another one of these February premature tulip pushing warm blasts, could we really say the writing wasn't on the wall?