Typhoon Tip

I think it maybe has something to do with the run cycle, 00z vs 12z Not sure whether this has been hugely consistent but I have come to roll eyes prior to looking at the 12z … It seems to attempt theses seasonal rollbacks, then oscillate back at 00z. Not sure why that is but was musing something to do with being on the pattern fence, during transition season no less, then processing the diabatic/diurnal heat budget. Heh … as though the 12z run has no radiative forcing.

There are differences tho ... They may not leap out at the observer, but the 540 dam thicknesses retreats for the most part, N of the border with Canada... Other than very brief incursion over small CAA jet regions that don't even last the diurnal sun attempt to knive briefly in. That's basically taking over after the cut off vortex is finished claiming another New England climo week. That canvas would send any clear days to 70 at this point in the year. GFS doesn't like clear days but it's likely full of shit with all those bowling balls in 4 days or whatever invented crap it's doing to keep it cold despite warming in all directions -

I guess that's the best we can do. If there were/are very low conditionally forced, elevated of DP air layers their likely too finite to be picked up by the sounding resolution above. As far as the thickness though - whoa! 581.1 ... You mentioned well mixed. I still wonder if modern industrial farming/hydro practices make those lofty hgts more common than pre eras. You know, in the summer I pay attention to thickness over DCA/NYC/BOS ...I've noticed over the years, that incidences of 580 are less common than they are out there. interesting . We can put up 577's with 101/78 diurnal spreads ...it's not a hard ceiling but it seems to press right around there and gets difficult - although in recent summers beginning 2016, I have seen more 580 on NAM grids. But it seems right around there we start sacrificing T's in lieu of TD

It did ... 'been noticing the last couple of days ( actually), that the Euro really doesn't look too bad - actually after 4. That's not a long wait, really. We actually could get really lucky with that spring cut-off gyre that sets up S of NS. It's trended E just enough ( thank you very much...) compared to the original idea where it anchored on Cape Cod until your kids graduate... Being on the western edge of the circulation, we may just get sun through high clouds and a D-slope flow to offset the chilly 850s. I mean it's not fantastic - but it's a whole 'nother universe to being 44 in mist. Then after there's a bit of a paradigm shift - albeit subtle, still enough that the 850 mb 0C "asshole"therm finally retreats N to the border with southern Canadian. The Euro rolls out some 10+C 850 mb plumes within that as anyone can plainly see but if any day under sun this high and hot will send our temps where we have not been yet this year - day's 6 thru 10 of that 00z run.

Today is good to be fair, though - per my subjective take. Yeah, could use it maybe 10 warmer, but it tapped 63 when the sun cut through the high milk ceilings. And with light winds barely noticeable under that, it was fine. It will not be that way mid week through late Friday ... Bitch then - Afterward, using the Euro - if one dares - it didn't look too bad to me after D5. Having the vortex in that position over the weekend could end up being surprisingly nice here, with tendencies for d-slope flow. If the ceilings allow some sun through .. No 70s tho.

I'd be willing to wonder if y'all aren't getting a kind of over-top effect from this sort of synoptic layout...

It's all subjective, of course... but, "I" ( and probably there are others that share in this opinion - ) could care less about achieving legit summer weather. As in proper 85/62 ? - not sure many think that's part of any expectation now, anyway. I/we just want more than a single day where it lolly pops to 73, only to face-smack the next day at 52 F in sun showers mixed with graupel. Like a week of even 70/50 with partly sunny nape splashing.... Problem is, we're less likely to get even that merciful reach-around in April, either. It just takes and takes, a circumstance made interminably more frustrating by the fact that we're all of 13 days from the perennial entry date into the solar MAXimum. On May 8. "April is the cruelest month," I guess.

Mm ... in spirit? no ... by hard anal retentive focus on the number 75, okay - It has already been 70+ at many of those stations in that list, since February 15th. Part of this/that course of discussion may be on me - I gathered an 'impression' over ... Iowa(however it's spelled -)'s post that we must be lacking warmth. That may not have been the correct "intent" of what he/she was after when he/she made the statement, but I had a moment to think about it and thought ...no. This is just a cool pattern. Let's not throw hands by over stating it's significance. Nothing's changed since March 31: April is a piece of shit month and we simply experience why. Some very very rare years, that is less apt the description. Like, 1976 ... 2002... maybe 2009? whatever. But this - to me - comes off as a typical dildo April behavior. Like you said, it's AN? Some subjectivity too, I don't think not being 75 (yet) is very significant in and of its self - comes off as luck. If the whole month was ABN, then it has more gravity.

here comes summer..

POS/who cares here

I wonder ... what were the hydrostatic heights at those times ? Suppose it were 576 dam, which is pretty fantastic for 42 or so N, such as Iowa's latitude, no doubt! It seems to me, here in New England a 572 dam is a typical co-metric when/if the temperature makes the early 90s, and that's typically a DP of 65-ish. I wonder if there is more typical 500 mb to surface hydrostatic depth that is in place - like an average graph. I'm integrating a science method with a question, and should just ask the question: are those 80 DP well mixed? The problem is, the geography out there is bit unique with human presence and activities. Cooking farmed land with fairly evolve hyrdo tech keeping the surface soils moist ( corn is biggie! ) may artificially inflate those DPs ... prior to a well/better mixing. Typically when 'big heat' evolves out there, there is a capping mid level ridge...and by construct circumstance ...that means lighter winds. So theta-e pooling ...maybe just within 500 feet of the ground too - I wonder if that get's carried down stream by a light wind field ..20 ...30 or even 50 miles, then a miasma wafts passed these station sites. Maybe a scatter plot would suggest that if an 80+ DP is being measured, and it exceeds the "typical" 500 mb hydrostatic depth, it's not "synoptically" legit.

By what metric ? - I'm not sure that is true. The average high is 63 right now ...averaging most/et al. So +12 is a couple standard deviations above normal, which by convention of statistical inference means it is relatively rare ... Not sure that is consistent with over due, considering recent spring spanning the last decade. There have in fact been an unusually large number of them hosting +2 to even 4 SD warm departures. And it has been at or close to mid 70s on to two separate occasions in the last 45 days -

Well ... it's a specter that's been looming in the models for over week and here we are. Good call by the models I guess. Warm to NYS rolls underneath us and never gets in here. I didn't see a BD front really go by. Like I said all along, we materialized this air mass around us as a warm front approached, which will ultimately fail. I guess 6-a dozen but whatever. Leave NE late March, ..come back some time in May. It's the only solution - if you one has the wherewithal. Everyone else, lies about how 'pleasant' it can still be while we wish bad shit befalls on them for attempting to take us down their bargaining psychosis rabbit hole.

yeah... as much as I begrudge to admit it, the GFS may be more correct with the handling of that mid week period. The contention over how much 'rhia afflicts the area from a closed spring cold ( but not cold enough ...) low? Thing is, it overnight runs tried to give a 1982 but for northern Maine, both GFS and Euro - the only difference was, the Euro then anchored the low through late week, whereas the GFS progresses it right along. This 12z run is even inched more so in that progressive look. I think the progressive aspect has both trend, multi-seasonal trend, and model correction giving a nod.

Wow...that sun is hot now! high and hot

Mentioned this yesterday ... yup. The models tend to speed up/add progression to the flow moving late mid range toward nearer terms. Seeing a glum cut-off on D8 is almost dependably going to fail, the same way a big bomb in the winter rarely ever succeeds. It's almost like you have to hint a solution more so to see it happen, then your in trouble. That said, I the week looks coolish and possible transitioning quickly, either way. Possibly problems with the next system coming thru the Lakes closing the gap. The GEFs are elevating the NAO and slumping the PNA into the first week of May, fwiw

It's trending better... The lows surface and aloft are trending more progressive, such that it's grip on the region is less. The impetus of that is that the 'trend' may not be finished. I'm also noticing a trend to be higher in latitude, too. That Euro is two days tops...more like standard month of Anus

Yes ... Norways - good call

We 'started blooming' those about 10 days ago but they were in no hurry. Took about a week to get to the full splendor. Lilacs opened up and have infantile leaves with embryonic flower pods, and the brambled hodgepodge of neglected shrubbery across the road are all green with small leaflets too. The bigger trees ... only the sugar maples and reds are flowering. But the other maple and oaks think a nuclear holocaust must have happened. just sayn' this for reference as I'm like ... 70 mi due S as the crow dumps on windshield from your location here along Rt 2 in N Ma

It'll be interesting to test that... I mean the "gloom" is not showing up too well in the FOUS/NAM grid. There may be a sneaky layer in between the sigma levels given, but the ones given are < 50% RH after 12z... which are 900, 700 and 500 mbs. Thing is, ...we are only 3 weeks from entry into solar max time of year, ...*IF* the moisture layer is that thin, the sun's likely to punch through that ... It'd be that satellite looping where it melts away from west to east toward the coast ... circa 20 ..21 z. Also,.. the onshore flow is very light after 12z too. The momentum/pulsed arrival appears to be Saturday night through dawn. After that, it's 3 kts mid boundary layer flow over Logan ... Granted we are talking the NAM here, but that would imply more variable in the region.

Hope springs eternal from the eternally optimistic I guess, but the artistry of that scene for me would be interminably improved if not for that clump of shit looking black mass of ugliness that lines the pathway

May be some color interpretation differences ... but I don't see many pixels on that chart at that far end of the spectrum. Looks rather mid way ... so 10 give or take? Otherwise, even so yeah .. .not sure how the source - from the USGS if that should matter to anyone - goes about tabulating the data or enough so that an algorithm would paint such a dense, noisy presentation - it's also now 5 days ago since that chart date, but that was as of April 17.

this is like a "foliage gradient pattern" this spring.. I've posted this ... several pages ago so won't drub it up ( when no one will look at it or comment anyway - ) but the phenotype anomaly monitoring shows above/early greening going neutral neg central into NNE.

well... I wouldn't say that either. The post is that there's hope - not much more for now.

Hmmm • La Niña conditions are expected to continue for the next several months, with a third La Niña winter beginning to become a distinct possibility