Typhoon Tip

Yeah ...I mentioned this last night with Tiger' ... The NAM shows elevated heat - almost like a hybrid EML arriving, between 900 and 850mb levels, during tomorrow late afternoon and night. Meanwhile, the surface T1 in the grid is still hung up in the mid 60s while that advection occurs. Like d(t) is +7 to 11 at 900 mb, rising from 13 or so at 4pm Friday, to 24C 11 pm Friday night. It's not clear to me that overrunning of 20+C air is going to happen without some sort quasi-warm frontal slantwise rise motion ... does it then breach free convection - i.e., elevated warm IB driven frequent lightning overnight/downpours strafing through... The caveat is the this SW/ Texan heat released air appears to be - perhaps - too early in the season? Whatever the reason, it's not clear it is theta-e charged. I mean, if this were coming in with a layer/slab of elevated DP off the deck, with some of that dry EML overtop, we'd probably see some of that isentropic lift action more obviously?

Yeah... (thanks) I noticed that all models are slowing the front now to Sunday night. 4 or 5 days ago, the original vision for this weekend was more like a Saturday shot - the deep layer circulation features toting that front along where stronger and thus faster. The funny thing is, I didn't mentioned this but I was internally voicing that the models, all of three majors, have a magnification' ( over amping) tendency for events that 'rise over the temporal horizon' of the outer modeling frames. It's something I've op-ed about in longer posts that by virtue of being too long and annoying, may not have been read - haha. What can I say - that's how I roll. Anyway ... it's like the S/W and associate front as well as the overall pattern manifold was 'logistically effected' by too much westerlies mechanics that these models tend to apply to the field ...and now that we are getting closer, it's a shallower wave. The ridge is more resilient that way... More resilience means more W motion to the level trajectory, and that's moving the wind dial from SW to more WSW and that makes big difference in maximization... As well, another positive feedback, causing more 'synergistic' heat, is that mechanical give back to the ridge is driving a hotter kinetic layer through the 900 to 700 mb level. That's +22.5 C inside that plume astride the SNE coast Saturday evening, a pocket that wasn't there at 12z - that means the the lower troposphere was plumbed and overturned by mixing... I don't know how that can happen without the adiabats also being extrapolated from 850 or even exceeding that sigma level. In short, I still think that 101 is possible at Hanscom Field, Rt 9, and over down town thoroughfares. Possible - as it, 'monitoring the potential for'

Funny you mentioned that ... I'm already noticing that happening... The front that ends our "two day" heat wave, has normalized some comparing the original modeling cinema from 4 .. 5 days ago. The upper support even goes more zonal in the non-hydrostats instead of trough incursion that yo-yos in and out...etc. In fact, centered on ~132 hours out from the 00z run cycle, all the models attempt even bounce the height back, already...by as early as Tuesday... However, because of idiosyncrasies over eastern Canada, we end up with high pressure at the surface retreat E of NF ..which sends NE trajectories back SW under the upper heights - so it's a dud, gutted ridge. But, the 850 mbs do reflect muted overall aspect, by only on average coming down to 9 to 12 C through the period. Then, there's suggestion of another flat trough and whisky front. Then, I'm tracking a much bigger systemically anchored heat look that's really quite awesome already in the 300 hour EPS/GEPs... The GFS is more tepid but it's own PNA is down below -1 SD by Mem Day weekend, which suggests room to negotiate.

Wow... arresting image. Again..for the upteenth time, I reiterate my sentiments that PF is a moron for not taking these to a digital re-mastery expert, and become rich, both in spirit and form, as an arty, wealthy kind of neo Ansel Adam's for broad vistas - This waste is like a single, middle aged woman whose clock is winding down. Her body was always deliciously hot, her face, melting hearts. Yet she's single, and doesn't know why - or does but covets the frustration and tears from other's eyes. She like this for failing to ever therapeutically connect with an obstructive force caused by an overbearing affection giver in her youth. ...One to this day that her adoration is immortalized. That's the insidious nature of that kind of 'psychic incest' (no physical manifestation), in that it feels so good while it is happening, the damage to individualism and personal growth space can be quite profound. This person essentially has had her ability to formulate affection 'shut down' by the psychic interference, the natural gestational phase of crushes on boys (or girls) we all suffer, may not have occurred at all during critical years ( 5-12), because of the overbearing predominating presence in her adolescence. She's intelligent, quick witted and can plumb deeper colloquy, otherwise, about a myriad of subjects she may not have ever been formally introduced with - she's smart enough to do that. And when not manufacturing 'fantasy conflicts' as a defense mechanism, keeping those who 'approach her' that way, at bay - anything to distance her self, all done unconsciously - she's really quite cheerful, approachable, and charming. But that demon keeping her from truly finding and engaging in life has proven too powerful, insidiously cloaked beneath these 'on-paper' social advantages... And now that her clock is winding down, at middle age, she's running out of time... If she doesn't figure this shit out, she'll miss the boat entirely ... and leave only an empty life behind. Never having framed this talent for photo-optic gems into an immortalizing homage to a great soul; instead, a portrait in the shimmering gallery of mediocrity.

00z NAM brings the elevated thermal layer over the region late Friday. It’ll be interesting Saturday morning when 900 mb is +25C over PHL NYC and BOS, full sun coming.

I thought about that. Maybe at the nose dew elevation/advection

You know ..I was also wondering about instrumentation. But I'm not a technology historian by any stretch - it's just that for example, earlier last Century the Death Valley record was set ( 2nd highest in the world), but recently that's come under some skepticism if not scrutiny due to that, and it was registered some 50 years later than the 1880's I do know from my half century's worth of existence that it's hard to get above 95 in May in general, and a-priori that's gonna date back many years before my feet hit earth - most likely.

Hey Wiz' ... you probably don't have idea or have never heard of this, "May 21, 1996 – A microburst caused extensive damage and 60 injuries in Plymouth County, Massachusetts, where winds were clocked at 104 mph (167 km/h). Brockton, Whitman, and Abington were the hardest hit towns." But that was led by 90 F temperatures that day. I recall that.. This set up Sunday sort of reminds me... although back then the heat punched in for just a day.

Ha ha ... I get it. But unfortunately, there may never be a "gawk scale" for which a single event is ever gonna be compared to. "It's got a holy shit we all gon' die, historic value of 9 on the scale of oh-shitness!" Breaking a 130 year record is breaking a 130 year record in the stricter scalar sense, and is impressive nonetheless for most climate and met trained. If that were to occur, it would be both awesome, and, still does fit in with breaking warm-related records in a +d(climate) era.

Telecon spread likes a warmer 2nd half of May .... right into the first week of June fwiw -

Mm... even considering the subjective nature of your statement (abv), even having a possibility of approaching historic numbers, those that were set over 130 years ago (99 ...etc), must be worthy enough - What does one need to 'impress' then. I think that's asking a bit much ... Looking at all years, it's hard enough to get above even 96 in the average July, just based upon historical inference.

Yeah... in terms of physical impact/'sensible' weather... 99/59 vs 95/65 ... that's why-for the invention of the HI calculation. Which,ha, has anyone every seen the actual equation for the apparent temperatures? Holy brain bomb of a headache that thing is. It's got estimates built into it too, or at least the version I saw back in the '90s. But for those interested in breaking record temperatures the HI isn't part of that - or maybe there is historic 'HI's ? I dunno - Does anyone know what the daily is for Saturday 21 May? what are the all-times? I suppose I could find those but if anyone cares to -

I thought it was 22 C in the Euro and GGEM. I realize that post is tl;dr for some but I annotated that chart fwiw - Having said that, I think that's 22 C... the color pallets a bit busy to be absolutely certain. Maybe there is a hard print of the 850 temps - I think I've seen Brian source that. If it's just 20C that factorable - sure.

Lol - ...oh K. Obviously the thumb in the rib there is that "some" people are talking about it, and some people might find it exciting. But you're right for pure meteorological curiosity, it is an aspect for discussion. Testing boundaries in Nature is part of the science of nature - that's really why-for the specter of any kind of event, however subtle or gross, is sought. 'What can happen' - probably built right into our instinctual wiring ( that blah blah internal motivator, that humans don't believe they posses - pure instinct). You know...we creatures have evolved curiosity of such things, because evolution chose our intellects to be our claws and teeth in the greater Darwinian sense? Intellect doesn't do much good without curiosity, because the latter ... puts the intelligence into the intellect. Pretty straight forward, and perhaps an easy intuitive leap to understand, this is what/why draws us to dramatic weather events. For physicists... finding the 'god particle' ... For artists, realizing the imagery in the mind, through their medium, is part of that same venture. etc... I don't mean to lecture you bro - you didn't ask haha... Just made me think about this subject again is all. For the record, the meteorology/leading therein is fascinating to me... I don't personally care to be 'stuck' in traffic with a failing AC in 95 F temperatures under a rotisserie lamp sun. I'm intelligent - not crazy.

It's funny you tossed the ICON into that comparison ... I don't really use that model - I gave it chance over the last two seasons and wasn't ultimately impressed enough to use it outside of a day...day and half. To many critical albeit only seemingly too small to matter reasons to ruin a clad forecast for me to bother - lol. That said, I do eye-candy it from time to time out of morbid diabetic practice ... it's been pretty sweet on the Saturday heat for week actually.

Is that a personal observation? Not busting nuts ... curious if that's documented. I did not know that. I was inclined to think it was just different moisture presence in the column in most cases. Which ...yeah, conceptually that can be vertical mixing related. But I was thinking that way because I remember the 2018 version of the oper. GFS's handling of that March Nor'easter, where it had that 39/32 column, at 98% RH, thru 3.00" of QPF... We've discussed ad nauseam -. So, we are a couple of upgrade releases/great grandson years late, and probably(hopefully) that sort of stuff has been un-mucked. I just sort of assumed there's a recessive trait there nonetheless- But yeah...I guess it could just be mixing too.

I mean... if the Euro wind field were to rotate/correct W ...more in line with a GFS trajectory, whilst keeping/conserving its other modeled metrics/verify ... yeah, I wouldn't have problem going 101 in the parking lot of the Burlington Mass/Mall, or sitting at an eternal red light on Rt 9 out in Natick... I mean with 22C mixing from Venus like that after several hours of full torch sun, the "real" ensuing 2-meter will ping that high. Clouds? Yup.. when we get into the post 95 VIP range, ... the clothes have to be clean.

Yeah this is a good take, Brian - if then getting down into 'local studies' scaling, there are little 'climate pockets' that will perform like that where circumstantial - like the d-slope this, or the drying sending the T side of 'T/TD' soaring...etc. Thanks for these... The Euro, we can see the southern marine there pretty clearly/as suspected yes. It's not as 'visible' but it probably keeps the the temps to 95 or < even as far N as southern NH ... certainly possible. Contrasting, the GFS has less of that. It appears to maximize a big heat result, despite the core of the hottest 850 mb plume escaping S of SNE ...interesting. Looking at the synoptics more closely, indeed it has more westerly orientation with the flow. Not hugely... some 20 deg of dial angle but that's probably enough to suppress the contamination - guessin' What are the DPs in the RGEM vs the 12KM NAM? That NAM ...I wonder if that's a bloated theta-e artifact. 84... okay haha

Also - I did not include the GFS in that 00z "hot take" on Saturday. It seems to be inconsitently placing the eject 850 mb air layer in space and time over the last several runs. It's also been inconsistent with the 500 mb 'idiosyncrasies' with the orientation/morphology of the non-hydrostatic heights...It just wants to ablate and rasp the latitude of the warm potential at least excuse, which I am not sure given the large scale -EPO pulse and down stream coupled vortex I outlined, that the GFS has the right idea. That said, it could verify... and miss the region south - in which case the standard SW flow/climate hot day results.

I realize not all of us in weather social-media hobbysphere covet passion on the summer/heat side of the preferential equation ( lol...), but seriously, I am not intending to troll by writing this up. At this point I am willing to agree more so with Metagraphica ( think it was...) re the potential to break records on Saturday. Prior to this, the synoptics suggestion was there, ..but particular details were not yet emerged out of the coarse trajectory/set-ups that lent as much confidence. Those appear to have come into better focus rather neatly over the last 24 hours of mode runs - particularly more so in the Euro and GGEM. More on that below ... and for the general audience ( I used your post as a victim to launch this synoptic overview ... because I have a life that is otherwise so richly and spiritually worth existence, clearly ...) First, an aside: perhaps by virtue of the fact that May records are more vulnerable, helps? It's bit of philosophy, but one that takes acceptance ( at minimum) that synergistic feed-backs that cause large heat eruptions have become increasingly more common place over the last 10 years, globally. These occurrence will likely come home at some point - Brian and I have been going back and forth about this aspect, and the idea that we really haven't had a Pacific NW event year. Perhaps 'yet,' being apropos. Not to alarm either - not saying that's ring the door bell at the end of the week, either. But, there is now more clearly/likely, going to be synoptic confluence of metrics that can take an ordinary/seasonal hot synopsis, and end up over producing. It's actually rather elegant. So ... engineering a historic hot one: Observe this annotated series below. Contained are the 48 hour ( from 00z 18 May ) Euro and Canadian (GGEM), 850 mb temperatures - c/o Tropical Tidbits. That white 'checkering'/migraine aura loss is likely the topographic blackout/grid, but it only partially obscures a very intensely energized kinetic air layer. That happens because the ambient elevations is so high, the 850 mb is closer to the ground - thus more proficient at conditioning the air mass at this time of year with very high, unabated solar incidence with the ground...etc. Meanwhile, over the next two days lead, there is a moderate -EPO burst - I'll just show the Euro as the others/ens means concur. This annotated series below is intended to imply the animation/sequence of events ...where the -EPO comes into form. Concomitant with that geopotential height anomaly over Alaska, immediately downstream we see a vortex, a coupled balancing mass, which is in the process of being kicked down stream by the manifold of change taking place - c/o Pivotal Weather. It is interesting to note, a potentially historically hot day on Saturday, really in indirect essence is because of this interaction/circulation mode forcing illustrated above ...some 4000 km or more afar. So what happens? As the trough above, Pacific NW, continues to then carve S-E, while initially W of 100 W longitude, there is then a transitive/indirect coupling height response over the eastern mid latitude continent ... as typically... within 2 days. Shown below is the 500 mb Euro, again, c/o Pivotal ...nicely showing that moderate 500 mb anomaly ( those height rises over us allow the diurnal expansion from heating room to take place). Note, this is only 00z Saturday. The total progressive character of the flow manifold with tends to break this down; so this charts destiny isn't lingering long. The trough in the Lakes goes on to normalizing in day or so, while the ridge over us, moves into the Atlantic. This allows drills a correcting cool front thru later Sunday...etc. **Below is the most important aspect that prior to last overnight's model runs, was less than clear could transpire. It is the 'timing' of that 850 mb kinetically charge air mass from earlier. The evolution of the NE Pac into/over western N/A, effectively 'dislodges' that air mass. Once that occurs, it is impelled to ride along the circulation eddy et al... Here is 00z Saturday, a plume is situated over the OV (left blw). By 12z, it has migrated to the western New England entry, poised to comes east during the day (right) As this matures on during the afternoon, nearing 21 z we see what appear to be small +22 C nodes, which are some 3 C warmer modulated over the 12z charts above. That's a crucial distinction there. Regardless of whatever the 2-meter temperatures the Euro is calculated at that time, that modulation strongly urges that the mixing depth has actually achieved the 850 mb sigma level. Which means, the adiabats may in fact confidently be drawn from +22 C/ 850 to the surface along a skew-t diagram. That's pushing 38 C at the surface, btw In conclusion. This has an attempt at a minoring synergy to over produce at least one day of extraordinary heat - by that ..I just mean substantially above climate suggestion for a run-o-the-mill hot day in May. The 2-meter at this time ( 21Z abv), from the more recent 06 Euro is only 92 or so over Boston metro. However, the shading/cinema of the charts has definitively warmer than that across S NH. I suspect the SW flow is a fly in the ointment... The Euro is probably using the Long Island/Bite waters to screw HFD-BOS and points SE... sort of capping do to some contamination from those southern marine sources. I'm not sure on that... If the heat bulges significantly ...we could see a local hydrostatic forcing/pressure orient more E and force W wind. Maybe a convergence axis in there with thunder? So ...yes there are caveats. But in order to synergize things have to go right, too. Fwiw, the GGEM 2-meter/hover product at Pivotal floats a 97 or so Metro west to BED/NE Mass

Wednesday looks like the cool day... Some sort of flat wave ejection from the Lakes into a leading low theta-e environment promises to cloud over before noon and light rain wet bulbs - how soothing... yuck. Even though this is bust machine guidance for being too cold time of year, that's a candidate for climo in the MOS's to not see a chilly afternoon. I guess a way out of that is that sometimes the leading dry air and modest subsidence can erode the upper ceiling as it attempts to dump over the Berk's and you can get a couple extra reach-around hours of warm sun prior the denser advance finally taking over.

Oh.. .ha. I was like, 'He only thinks we're getting into the 60s - I think he means 90s' Anyway, yeah, I know I spent time - for the general audience - penning way too long of a post over why the sort of modeled heat delivery through New England over the weekend, doesn't tend to be 'big heat,' based in no small part on both climate, and just experience with SW flow. By I suppose as others mentioned, wind direction - it's likely to be a key metric. If we can keep it more WSW or W as opposed to NYC --> PWM. But that kind of means its now a SW flow, doesn't it? Thing is, we have a front approaching from the W, with non-hydrostatic ridge/associated wind at mid troposphere et al, SW. So not sure. The 850s on Saturday are certainly pushing it for May pretty hard against the ceiling. Looks 21 C... That's there. But the RH at 700, 500, 300 contaminated to perhaps to partly cloudy. heh well anyway we'll see. I guess whether it's 97 or 93 is nuisance distinction and not worth this energy. haha. I mean, it'll be 93/67 and that combination will roll bottom back beads of sweat into ass cracks either way.

? 'building into the 60s'

I could almost see it being like that (^ abv), + 1 or 2 ? Just not going crazy is what I mean. I mean...out of respect for the mean modal look, of -.5 PNA while also on-going around that same amount of anomaly in the +NAO. The mode tandem of those two tends to favor S/SE U.S. warm anomalies, and high pressure return flows tapping into that to some punny degree - heh - isn't an altogether terrible idea. We'll see. These zonal progressive means can also break one way or the other... I do sense that the westerlies are a bit over-active/lagging ( perhaps fitting the leitmotif over the last 20 years to do so, deeper and deeper into springs - the models won't stop until we've verified an ALB snow flurry on June 10 lol ). Anyway, eventually the ambient polar jet will likely retreat/break down into summer noodles, and I wonder if there's a big June heat wave out there after this oscillatory aspect inevitably moves into the next paradigm.

This region of the continent doesn't typically get big heat from SW flow. Counter intuitive, perhaps, but the region gets more 'seasonal'/climate heat that way. It's kind of expected seeing the GFS/Euro trend away from the 99's, when considering the generally agreed upon standard warm sector synoptics through the tail end of the week and weekend. The big heat, those 95+ to 102's, have a different synoptic scaffolding. You end up in a scenario of light W to WNW wind at the surface, under a NW flow at 500 mb. And in betweeen.. Sonoran/SW heat release air layer has timed it's arrival ( 850 dragon belch 22.5 C) accordingly. In 2017 July, for example, we had the synoptic scaffold as such, but there was no kinetic layer delivered. We did well to cook locally, but boy did that week leave a lot on the table, despite maxing at 98 ( I think it was....). The longer term pattern looks oscillatory in nature tho. The models tend to too much amplitude beyond D7's regardless, but same here.. Warm(cool) signals, either direction, might be more like (seasonal + the unknown contribution of CC polynomial of terms)/ 2