Typhoon Tip

Heh ... there is a SW heat release, but it is more so in the operational runs than the ens means. That said, this recent closed low retrograde causing a stalled band of cloud and showers thing ...that was ferreted out by the operational runs and the ens means had to capitulate. Sometimes these higher resolution/souped-up versions will pull from the other direction like that. It's coming across at a lower trajectory than is ideal for us here, though. We're along the synoptic N edge... in a summer that although young, is showing early signs of nadir-ing the flow over NE whenever it can. I suppose for heat/summer enthusiasts, you gotta start somewhere ... maybe this one will do what none other could before: get here The only thing is, there's a elephant ass vortex rollin' through Canada along the 55th parallel... The GFS, as is typical at this range ( 168 - 200 hrs) accumulates too much depth in that feature ( 00z ), shamelessly ending up with a 528 dm non- hydrostatic height core (D8, 00z) while the NH enters the hottest climatological heights time of the year... no problem - It's been a problem with the GFS guidance I've noted for the last several years actually, that it always is the deepest vortex guidance at D8.. It seems to correct as it get closer in time, but along that temporal outer seam between the late mid range and extended...? PF posts happy and giddy about trough parades... But hey - we have model cinemas that our forefathers never got to be so psychotropically addicted to, lubing our moods with dopamine drips our otherwise dysphoric lives fail to provide. They certainly serve a purpose. Thing is... the GGEM and Euro do something similar - which is to mean, they kind of end up with too much L/W power out in time, too. They arrive there for different reasons, tho ( probably). The GFS, I think ... accumulates /integrates dynamic cooling surpluses that integrate mechanics. The Euro has a normalization scheme that tends to suck the life out of smaller wave protuberances giving their energy to the L/W trough ..thus, falsely creating constructive interference to convert that one lottery winner cumulus cloud into D9 coastal bomb. The GGEM is just an amp happy POS out there in time no matter what.. Where as I, as usual... tried to pen something simple and quick but forgot along the way ... no one reads length anymore. I think the models may "fill" that vortex over eastern Canada along it's trajectory way. That could provide a more N ejection axis for the kinetic air layers. It's tough though...because even though everything above is true, we have a separate kind of a cold butt-plug problem going on that is causing the flow to cut off/ curl back SW in NE .

Punchin' the clock on what appears more and more to be a dependable global-scaled aspect/concern during warm seasons.. https://phys.org/news/2022-06-summer-swelter-persistent-spirits.html

I had heard/read of marine heatwaves in the recent past, but the 'direct' causality aspect is a little new to me. Meteorologist's inquiry I'd be interested in the fuller explanation of the total circuitry there - I mean it's not like there is some button pushed that has a label reading, "cook fish" It's easy to imagine, anthropogenic C02 and/or other anthropogenic flux attributed warming, then causes the planetary circulation modes to change. The SS stressing patterns change with it. That disrupts the prior thermal distribution. Given time, that then integrates to depth ... etc. But there is also conduction thermodynamics in the quasi oceanic-atmospheric exchange. Heat source/sink in either direction should obviously matter. Example, warm water does not evaporate as fast into warm air that is by nature already holding more water vapor. Less phase change means less cooling of the water. Also, I am not certain, but I wonder if IR radiation, the other way a black-body cools, is also effected because the ocean and the air then come into equilibrium at a higher temperature, such that the water doesn't cool as fast from that mechanism, too ( it does not radiate heat at the same amount). These factors prooobably make up a lot or some of that circuitry? But ... I don't have access to a retinue of over worked red-eyed grad students crunching numbers to back my rise to insight glory here ... Anyway, these seemingly minor lags in winter cooling, set up the following warm seasons to achieve warmer and warmer SST states ... It doesn't take a huge leap of intuition to see how that's a kind of "quasi" ( or like a -) run-away effect.

Scattered air mass crispies tomorrow and garden variety showers with a crackle or two ... 91/61 type heat Saturday 94/62 Sunday ...heh, that's getting up there actually. Reset to climo Monday by way thunder/front, but nothing annoying after. Heat may return late...

Single species green grass is horrible for the ecology. The healthy balance of the latter requires a bio-diversity in every direction, that which cannot be footed by grass, alone. If there are gardens? They do much better if they are adjacent to this competition, which brings in pollinating insects - that's just one example in how the ecology requires diversity. ...Duh. But, in particular ...when neighborhoods are developed with bifurcating asphalt streets/divisions, where the abutting lands create a patchwork of exclusive, excessively maintained grass/lawn care .. you are thus contributing to an unhealthy natural setting and ecology. This is making the 1980s "Stepford" lawn look increasingly outmoded. There is a reason why in progressive 'state of the art' regions, where awareness of this has led to cultivating low elevation pollinator flowering species, and is becoming practice. And it's not just "weed" - it's choosing Japanese Iris, and alpine Delphinium sub-genres to grow with the grass, and allowing White Clover to integrate, along with grass. That is a vastly, vastly healthier lawn ( as just an example). And by virtue of stunning flower displays, there's no aesthetic contest. Those that don't know about this/that it is happening ... probably live in a cultural mindset that is older, but are unfortunately on the wrong ( and getting wronger ) side of history.

I wish Dr. Paul Roundy ( ...I think he's a doc by now...) still ran that probability product available on line like back in the old days. I found that tool to be more than merely eye candy. It seemed to do rather well at early detection for development regions of the Pac and Atlantic expanse. Not so much going forward, but the recent MJO and orientation of the R-wave correlate to eastern Pacific then relaying into Atlantic TC genesis, and now ... the 00z GGEM and Euro both have suggestion for MDR development nearing the Islands if just for sport. It's obviously hugely early by climo for that region, but it is what it is

Depends on what we mean by 'heat' in this context. If we're dancing around the notion of 'big' as an adjective? I'm inclined to agree - but inclination isn't an outright sale, either. Lol. No but it's likely to be 90/59 on Saturday, and perhaps 92/62 on Sunday or whatever ( I have spent retentive time on it this morning...) Even though the 850 mb kinetic expulsion goes through that aspect you noted, where it collapses roughly BUF's longitude, the 850s are warm nonetheless. Muse: This whole closed(ing) mid level thing off the upper MA/NE coast ...it isn't a "coastal" in that sense. It has very little lower attending expression .. of which is missing, a CAA region around a west arc of a cyclone model... It's one of those ordeals where as it pulls away, you default warmer. We see this behavior in the early and late chapters of winters ... where the colder aspect was the front side of the event. Then as the low moves away and the sun comes out, the temp rockets to 44 F that afternoon or the next day... and that beautiful 10" of new snow ends up 4" of glop. So the weekend ... the OV to NE region defaults under +15 to 17C 850s, with [apparently] low ceiling RH, while slowly increasing WSW gradient spanning those two days. By convention, 90 is hot .. it's just not very big. Little longer: Also .. further down the road, there's a dicey period D8.5 - 11 on these models. The 00z and 06z GFS briefly closes off a 594+ dm contour over the upper mid Atlantic during that span, and both the GGEM and Euro indicate a significant mass of SW released air is/has extended all the way to the Va coast across the continent at that same time as the GFS. Meanwhile, the telecon footprint -PNA is still in place... I'd call that playing with fire ... Heat's really fragile in guidance, and in practice once above ~ 35 N. It only takes a subtle outflow from shower two towns over to undermine a hot afternoon. In the macro sense ( in guidance) just about any perturbation imaginable tends to offset big numbers. Be it a poorly timed debris plume off an MCS ... or a diffused front below the sensitivity of WPC's detection.. The closer to 95 ... 100, the more perfect things need to be. But, the flip side of the fragility is that it can be 'hidden' by these offsets, in guidance, and then if the guidance removes the offsets...it can emerge rather quickly. In the period leading and going through the D8 to 12, there is a -PNA hot signal that appears to have the elephant ass of the polar regions suppressing it south. It's like spring loaded heat in a sense. If/when the N branch of the westerlies relaxes thru S/SE Canada, the heat end up N in tandem. If the N stream is correct as is, we narily miss.

Little time sensitive but present IR channels reveal a sizeable warm eddy seclusion has severed and meandered N of the g-stream axis. … about 250 naut mi SE of Cape Cod

He musta been using the NAM then

I had been watching it all morning ...because I have such a richly fulfilling and meaningful life otherwise ... and it's been interesting to see this rarity of improved conditions materializing from the Labradorian region - it's almost like the curse tried to hard and over shot. Lol Bust seriously it's got to be a unique synopsis to drive this total scenario like this. Over the next 30 hours, we see the closure of mid level circulation then drive west some 350 naut mi of distance from 65 W to nearly 72 W, some 3 standard non-hydrostatic intervals of depth ... That's an unusual feature and trajectory combination at this time of year. That sort of retrograde motion is more apt to occur in Feb and March, for seasonal reasons/concepts. But in doing so, this bulging west of the warm front and associated cloud band did seem to happen in lock-step with the backing 500 mb flow that is currently taking place S of NS. It's ironic that a close 500 mb/u/A low causes nice weather to happen on the coast? like wtf chuck -

Interesting ...trying to clear from the E... Looks like the flow aloft is beginning to back with that expected closure off-shore. Last couple of hours, the eastern edge of this stubborn multi-day band of piece-o-shitness clouds is beginning to bow west from that exertion. I can see open blue sky like 5 mi E of here,while the sun overhead is completely gone. It's a very sharp edge.

Yeah... I mean, the topographic forcing is a sufficient "trigger" - if we want to call it that - for that Euro scenario. I was just looking at the NAM and GFS ... no interest. It's all Euro, but it has been consistently painting that 18z pop off. I dunno - nice test for the Euro happy mixing. The old ETA versions ... of which the NAM roots its heredity, used to be an outstanding tool for 'convective initiation' - whether by accident in the model's design. Talkin' way back there though. Like 1995 when I was up at UML ... not sure if the versions and time-dependent human mangling of the tool may or may not have cleverly made it bad at convective initiation, also by accident LOL I'm not frankly sure what the NAM's usefulness is outside of convection physics and dopamine excitement at QPF numbers on the 72 hour grid ahead of coastal storms that are also biased too far NW.

Hey 'Wiz ... this is what I was mentioning to you yesterday, about subtle reasons to be engaged- heh ...I mean it's all we got after acceptance of what we are around this region of the planet. But this is a cut out of the 06z Euro, and this smattering region of QPF is convectively sequenced ... notable from 12z as non -existent, then blossoms nearing 18z. Not a big deal and wouldn't be mentioned but .. those are crispy towers and zap threats to golfers nonetheless... I like those kind of sky scape artistries of summer air masses. Nice towers for serious bun times ... the smell of warmth has its aroma, and then a txt arrives from a long lost dream love ... Oh wait - Of course...it may also be overdone .. heh. As we know, the Euro tends to mix and extend BL too much - not sure if that's an augmenter to convection but since both are UVM related .. Re heat this weekend: I'm noticing the 2-m products suggest sucking the DP out of the air, as it the air mass spills E of the western OV/E Great Lakes... Some of that is d-slope, but I wonder about these erstwhile deficits lending to that. It's kind of like a inverse dry-line somewhere along the spine the Apps. But 63 to 65 type air mass seems to end up in the high 50s across SNE ..both Sat/Sun afternoon, when both global models have 90 to 95 west and north of the marine zones. Maybe a dry heat pulse. I'm starting to wonder if this 2023 warm season is going to go down this way ... Like, for ever 10 days of translucent blue and/or temp challenged scung overcast like today, we finally get 2 days of summer where we pay yet more in curse-taxes for existing here with stealing DPs or some other shit to take something back... unreal

Look at this monsoon anomaly that's transiently sending clusters up the central Valley of California .. nice. Not sure y'all been following the world, but California pretty much won't be inhabitable in 30 years without some seriously stream-lined desalinization tech and implemented distribution infrastructure. No problem - it'd take the GDP of the United States for 50 years to pay for the f'er but it could be done. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Cen_California-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined If a TC were to ever get caught in that trajectory ... something like that is really what California needs - or perhaps not. Not sure how the geography would handle a 20 inch, "Mitchian" rain-out scenario when dry compaction has choked off all the macro-pores in the ground.

https://phys.org/news/2022-06-systematic-pool-pacific-due-human.html

short version, concept agreement ... very little agreement on details. longer version, probably because this closing ordeal is really A, not that strong, and B, ...most of it's mechanics are elevated. It's an odd behavior - really, it's like what we might see in February, with a closing 500 mb surface that retrogrades. During the the cold season, we delight in that behavior for obvious reasons. But unlike the cold season...we don't have intense lower tropospheric, lateral baroclinic gradients ...and strong frontal identification for structuring UVM/jet responses closer to the sfc --> cyclogenetic results. So the models are printing QPF and axis for focus sort of like spraying as a result lacking those foci. It's 'sort of' a red flag that the whole operation could be over done, or...even underdone, if some region stalls a rain band.

The same lag in the other direction... Jan 21 give or take a week(s) depending on latitude.

Seasonal lag ... a very normal aspect resulting from the time-dependence of the greater planetary system to fully absorb and thus be forced by solar variance ... was supposed to always protect places like San Francisco, Chicago and New York City ( I'd include Boston, but clearly New England is a micro-asshole-cold-climate that isn't really even on Earth for f's sake). Said lag did not collocate the highest intensity radiation of the solar year, with the Earth's ability to store it in the biggest 'atmospheric battery' ridges. That all-important month of lag, spares. Obviously it follows, that is why climate shows that although big numbers happen in June, there were always less frequently observed than July and even early Augusts .. But that's changing, because of CC. A hidden charm of the climate change, when that change is going up... eventually ( like gee ... the Pacific NW in June 2021 ) those two aspects will have increasing ability to happen in tandem. So we'll go on and keep getting killer heat and desiccation events through July's and August's of the future.. .but these Pac NW events that coincide with the acme of the solar curve are less prevented. Pretty much any time spanning within mid April to early September can create feed-back heat. But during June ( really late May to early July) when the sun is at it's most punishing intensity ... heat is extra special.

There are aspects to offer some minoring ...if 'better than nothing' entertainment. Like ...this closed low - it appears more 500 to 300 mb tropospheric, and not really reflected very well below those levels. That offers a clue to some lag instability onward tru later Thursday into Friday ..when the lower levels tend to improve while radiative forcing ( sun bombardment) sets the sky a-day glow... No one asked ...but I also suspect that if we set up a quasi-stationary band of training rains that pivots slowly thru the area while it rots into a miasma of low level left over moisture with the sun lasing through it, we probably end up more DP rich than the models are indicating at that time. So you uncomfortable fetish types ...? Don't grouse, better times may not be too far off. I mean there's no "back side" to that mess once that thing gets kicked out.. It just sort of emerges with 850 mb > + 14C over top ...with no CAA having mixed out the low levels. The synoptics look that way, yet the machine and 2-m DP products are lower... heh, we'll see. Higher theta-e blue tinting the distant hills .. offers some corrective SB CAPE suggestion Point is, it's not like there is a dearth of anything at all to at least wonder about - believe me... there are far worse uninspired ruts ...I've seen some 45 day long eternal unrelenting stretches in the winter months of the 1980s... where one become so accustomed to nothingness, a mere flurry inspired giddiness.

Hump? .. I guess the solar hump? Climate should be one's relevant metric, and that's long about July 21. Sun doesn't mean shit ...other than maintaining surface life on this planet - but that's another discussion. Lol. No, we're not over any 'hump'

Right, right ... and try running into those Superior waters for salvation, and your ballz get kissed by Medusa

Kind of funny seeing frost advisories covering N ME while WI is headlining inferno alerts

That may manifest into flood concern Thursday morning.

mm ..I don't trust the Euro beyond D4 with that behavior though ...

Okay ... so, you officially picked the fight - Just remember this after the next several pages of smoldering vitriol that cloaks hostility (poorly) ...who in fact "started it" LOL