Typhoon Tip

Right ... as miserable soul sucking demoralizing as this fun killer weather is ... it's really farmer's gold for lawn care. Grasses love this salad shit. My lawn inspires the appetite it's so deliciously green. It's like everything not to wanna head out there with Italian dressing and oregano

In any case ... it's more likely that oddity would 'delay,' rather than enforcing a missed warm-up, anyway. The telecon spread signals a warm 'mid month' - that's a bit longer than just D6-7-8, first of all. But these operational runs, GGEM and GFS have susbtantial ridging continuing right through D10. It seems to be growing more likely that above normal's going to happen.

I wouldn't trust the GFS run... It's almost like NOAA's modelers deliberately parameterized the thing to punch holes in ridges... Kidding... but that's an excessive looking feed-back scenario there. There's likely to be something whirling there but not that spatially owned. One thing I am also noticing over the last several runs... several days worth, is the handling of this little critter S/W that's almost nondescriptly sneaking in, as the D(NAO) is flipping signs... If you toggle/loop.... that little gnat of an innocuous feature gets dumped in. GFS has been stubborn about that subtle momentum getting tossed backward... The Euro was kind of onto that sort of subtle/insidious stream addition too, as of last night's run. We'll have to see... I believe a weakness if not a cut-off contour. The +D(NAO) is quite rapid in execution, and whatever happens to be in the flow there is likely to be ambered in once the westerlies lift out. But the propensity for the outer mid range/extended to magnify/enhance in that range, leaves me somewhat skeptical of that gutted ridge look.

I don't like personally running in the cold either... I mean, I hear others that run, some regularly gush about 50s being ideal - uh...really? I like it about 66 to 72. Sweat kicks in by mile two, and then that's plenty of cooling through evaporation to not get too hot. Above that... yeah, if it's very sunny and still air, ...open terrain with no shade, that goes the other way. 80 F is too warm for example. But I have... I once ran in 89 F because the gym was closed and needed to get my 5 miles in. Oh man - I think it took two days to shake that weird feeling that it left behind. I was pie -eyed when I came down my street and set to walking it off, but had to get to the sink for cold water on the neck. I think I borderline overheated. But less than about 65 is doable but for every degree down, ... by the low 50s? I've spent too much time up front getting lithe and lubed by my own body heat... Then the run's over. Don't feel like I even sweat enough because of it. I even think the next day something is arguing and achy for doing it more so. Cold sucks. It pulls the will out of you. And putting up those tepid times like you described doesn't surprise me. But everyone's got their range. For some... running in cold is preferred.

Hopefully these NAM metrics are right about tomorrow. Should be nearing 70 by 21Z ... if not 72, with light NW wind, very little cloud contamination. Purified post frontal air mass too. It's one of these 'warmer after the cold front' deals. Helped along by d-slope flow, and the fact that the actual amount of cold advection behind the front is too weak to offset the May sun. Nice! Anyway, could be a couple of hammock hours tomorrow mid- late afternoon. It would be starkly contrasting to that misty murk out there today...

It's odd seeing the GFS get the adiabatic temperatures all the way to (ave) 86 next Thursday across the breadth of the area ... when the model had been fighting off this warm signal at least excuse imagined - reversed with the Euro, which now challenges whether the deeper warmth gets in here because of it's oblong/stalled surface high parked due E of Logan's latitude like that. That thing would drill CCB clear to Albany ... (hyperbole but yeah-) The 06z's, 18z GFS 2-meter vision for next Thursday is probably 92. I don't know why those products label "2-meter temperatures," when it is abundantly clear that maps are limited to the linear adiabats. They don't/probably can't calc the bottom 100 meters of the sounding where it slopes log to the right like a knife blade nearing the surface(s), where the 2-meter actually is! Friday back doors badly .. not sure folks are seeing that? But... f if it's 8 days out.. probably won't exist Actually all these details are almost useless... heh. I mean this signal is still emerging/evolving in the runs. I'm not even sure how much of that cut -off momentum is really true.. Talking 7 days away. If that's weaker (say), then it acts less like an inverted block, and that high settles S-SE of our latitudes faster. We get more robust heat in here sooner - cannot be precluded at this range. Telecons favor a warm anomaly over eastern N/A; we are still where we were 4 or 5 days ago when I mentioned that warmer solutions should begin to emerge.

Why are people seemingly compelled to make this comparison all the time, "...If this were winter -" Silly ... childlike might be apropos. Don't get me wrong, I also think a lot of adults in the world could use a little 'child,' but as a metaphor for keeping an optimistic vigil, ..willingness to be open minded, see the fun..etc. But in the former context, as it pertains to qualitative observation of model cinematics ... it's unsophisticated. A slow moving non-synoptic thunderstorm drops 3" of rain over a freak hour, and it's, "If that happened in winter -" Let's ask the question: 'When was the last time there was a slow moving non-synoptic thunderstorm in winter ?' It seems to me, the physics of the leading environments, winter vs [not winter], are intrinsically different; such that the emergence of anything would have to also be physically, intrinsically different. Apples vs oranges... There is almost no meaningfulness in drafting the comparison... People should just say what is really on their mind: 'God, what I'd give to see 30" of snow in under an hour with vivid lightning and 70 mph outflow gust front...with a dangling wall cloud near the right-rear flank..." etc etc... Because that's got sooo much possibility of actually happening out here the reality of space-time-Earth continuum's menagerie of events. That suppressed wave over the M/A wouldn't exist if this were January, because the N stream would be rolling along, governed by Rosby scaled forcing that doesn't exist now. I guess to be fair and machine like ... yeah okay, there have been suppressed MA events that didn't involve SNE - in a vacuum, that statement is true. But at that point it also just becomes arbitrary.

Not yet. It may evolve to be a “furnace” but as of right now, it needs work. Heights are not enough. You have to look at the sfc features too. Deep warm air has trouble getting in here until the weekend.

That Euro run was wonky lookin'... That giant broad thing - I suspect ... - is the process of filling in the guidance, et al. I could swear, this happened prior to last May's NW NE heat event ( Or was that in 2020. I think it was 2020 now.. hm..) Anyway, the D9 had a cut off along the MA and it never really materialized. A weakness in the under side of the ridge instead, with S/SE inflow keeping DCA colder than BTV ... It was a 79 down there when it was 96 in BTV...or something like that. This strikes me as a similar deal

Oooh k haha ...millions and millions of dollars on the line never inspired a fix, huh? I know just bustin' ballz... but I honestly did wonder why there were so Dr. Jeckle/Mr hyde like that - who wouldn't that cares about the game. So I had that sarcastic excuse rollin' around in head ... long before the opportunity availed to snark it out in the open - which you so graciously provided. Thanks dude!

Because to the key to not getting caught cheating is to not do it all the time.

Clearing from the east

Jimmy Hoffa

Thursday trying to sneak into the top 10 .... I qualify that utopia last Sunday in that recognition, with 73 high, zip wind under 99.9% purity skies. Not sure we'll do quite that, but the NAM's grid has Logan's 18z at 310 degress/10 mph, and bone dry sigma level RH's, with 850 mb +6 ... That all looks like 3pm 71 with barely noticeable wind under mostly sunny.

It's kind of an unusual pattern this late in the year. Trough west, ridge east, manifesting over a -PNA footprint. That's not exactly a wild anomaly in and of its self, but the power of the Pac jet is hidden. The westerlies persisting with momentum across the N. Pacific. It may deliver a series of rain/ elevation snow to California and other western regions in what's become a multi-decadal hydro crisis, but doing so in May - usually they're going the other way, seasonally. Meanwhile, we warm back east - the extent of which is vague at this range. This is all still D 7 to 10

`Heh...it's aight. Yeah, coulda summed it up in one sentence a pop but rubbing the shit in has it's own rewards.

Weekend looks shit to me. I mean, we could petty argue/bargain it's better because we are not under 538 dm thickness, rather 552 - so some form of morality victory there... But, with that cutting-off low over top a slow death coastal, just being enough to long shore a fetch from S of NS clear to Buffalo, there's not much about that synopsis that looks realistically nice. That's just the way the 00z run look to me. I do think we are still in the process of modulating them two days in the guidance. What ultimately gets severed in terms of momentum, mid and aloft of that... could have an effect on the patterning later next week during that extended warm-up. Re that/ extended ideas: the 00z GGEM backed away. However, the GEPS suggests its engineering bs. That ens mean is going to be smoother at this range, either way, but it still makes the operational version noisy looking. Either way, milder to warm d7-10. The Euro, on the other hand, maintained ...arguably adding ridge growth. The ens mean (EPS) was slightly more robust as well. Both bring significant, though non-historic, non-hydrostatic height anomaly slow over arching a vestigial weakness over the SE/FL headed for the Gulf...which by the way, ... and EPS/oper. evolution might be early tropical interest with that region as it ends up festering down there D10-12. The GFS is still dumping too much mechanical power into that feature, but not as much so as previous runs. That will probably have to slowly back off the throttle. It's fighting its bias to do so. The GEFs demonstrate a weaker vibe with that.. Either way, particularly the 06z, these guidance were opting for more ridge prominence over a closed gale - So, reasonable continuity/emergence, toward the teleconnector signal, for warm mid month continues overall. Very early guess, doesn't look historic ... As much as all this has > 50% in the "proof of concept" perspective, the models will tend to also magnify versions that come over the outer edge of the guidance horizon, if/when those signals are emerging within a telecon backed regime. So -PNA/ +(AO/NAO), is likely going to show up on D9 oper models in exaggerated form. Sometimes that holds... but most of the time you end up with a tamer ordeal. We'll see.

Euro RH sigmas, 700, 500 ... have RH wall cutting NW-SE right thru SNE but advancing enough that we've gone under the edge by then. Plus, nothing screams a nice pleasant mild May day like 4 isobars running parallel along an axis from Cape Cod to Rut VT. Turn on the easterly soothing balm and walks away, why don't you... weee. That day's a piece of shit.

it's funny but you know ...I've been thinking about this off and on this last week. How we seem to be in an all or nothing climate, wrt to specifically the cold side behavior. We either have a direct feed of harshness, or it's rest state above normal. I'm convinced of this behavior. We don't seem to statically maintain cold air. Even in the depths of winter that seems harder to do then 30 years ago. I most definitely attribute this to CC.... I began having email exchanges with Mets and climo folks outside the forum 10 years ago, regarding how our "flip direction" in marginality seems to favor going liquid as opposed to parachutes ... just as an inclusion. But wrt to temperatures, soon as this pattern finally yields... absolutely the yaw back in the other direction could take some by surprise. Separate muse: I think if we are ever going to have a historic heat event here that is on par with the Pac NW, or France or the Urals ... Siberia etc, over the NE states, it would tend to happen prior to full green-up N of the Mason Dixie. That way, we are not holding the kinetic temp down for storage into theta-e, so that we can lock up > normal for nighttime lows. Being that we are exiting the continent, our atmosphere is an miasma of bio and industrial farts, weighting too much to allow temps to do the 108's.

Yeah ..that's a toasty extended Euro, no doubt. Sets up a surface anticyclonic node centered N. Pa, with what appears to be a thermally induced trough east of the Berk's up/down the coastal plain. That pretty much forces the flow WNW dragon breath. Meanwhile, non-hydrostatic heights approaching 590 dm. Hydrostatic heights > 570 dm. The 850s would likely be warmer than that - I mean they're not un-warm.. One thing I've noticed is that the 850s tend to moderate in the Euro. Whether cold outbreaks in winter, or the extended range heat in summers... the D8-9-10 more typically will elevate a tick or two, if/when the long range essence becomes real. So we'll see there... But, that set up pushes D9 into the 80s and probably 90 D10. Again...I'm > 50% confident in a pattern change toward warmer over mid latitudes of the continent/E but those particulars are low confidence for now. It would be nice if that dumpster setting up through the W. could get them some hydro tho -

Does any building built in the last 20 years utilizing modern physical materials ... actually burn? I was told by off duty hats that most of what they do, ... outside of triple decker box traps down in Worcester or older neighborhoods in the N. End, tend to be hazmat related. Chemical order calls, or electrical stink.. that sort of stuff. Coconut Grove is thing of the past...

Bump for bearing current relevancy - ... here we are again, in May, with clockwise circulation node emerging (modeling) between NS/Cape Cod. This delivers 'over-the-top' early heat signal ... targeting SE Canada/ perhaps NNE ... maybe as far S as NYC...etc, with anomalies that push those region above areas from TV-MA ( possibly).

GGEM brings it from DTX to BOS for how much/little it's worth - Hate to say, some kind of warm anomaly fits this: How far it actually goes or what orientation, who knows...

I thought it was supposed to rain tonight - whatdya mean

Wait ... so you're gonna install your AC, for heat 600 miles away up in Toronto ? Interesting... Sides, window units are phasing out. They're loud and power exhaustive and not terribly efficient - some are better than others..whatever. Homes and other edifices are getting out fitted with what are called, 'mini-splits,' which do more complete environmental controls vastly more efficiently, within the air space itself.