Typhoon Tip

Mm... I don't think that's it. Two aspects to consider: One, the AO index is in fact rising rapidly and exceeds the 0 SD into positive mode this week. It's +1 by the weekend, and then settles off to neutrality next week with lingering tendencies to flop positive. Two, ... in summer, 'blocks' up N do not correlate/forcing at mid latitudes due to the break-down of the R-wave distribution. Combining those two facets really does not lend to that assumption ( bold ) above for me. Plus, just what I'm observing - which (ha) may not mean anything, but op-ed. The next two weeks ( who knows beyond...), is precarious. The nearer term will grab attention as historic heat erupts over the SW and interior California, where there are many millions of civility residing on borrowed time and will have to mass exodus the west over the next 50 years .. ( lol ). No seriously, it's after that. There are two opportunities for heat expulsion - and the areal extension east that these afflict is in question. Like I was offering as hypothesis/explanation for, the models seem to be anchoring a modest trough S of NS ...with no apparent wave forcing - I hunch the heat itself is having something to do with that. That kind of artifact ... heh, I'm leery of believing is real. The Euro operational model has at times, seem to correct that feature out of there... The 12z run yesterday for example... But the 00z reverted back. Meanwhile, the N Atl. circulation mode is observably different in the operational runs - again - and should actually argue for the stretching/rising heights where that trough is. The trough appears manufactured and not really part of what R-wave scaffolding is observed. I think idiosyncrasies in the models - and they may be right. perhaps this kind of super-synoptic synergy shit will happen and "protect" NE and the upper MA from the heat because of those positive feed backs over the Missouri Valley... But the arctic domain spaces don't appear to be driving the reason why the heat is being blunted from getting E of Pittsburgh -

"CNN — A “dangerous and deadly heat wave” is on the way for the Southwest through the weekend, the Phoenix National Weather Service warns. More than 30 million people are under heat alerts, and more than 50 daily high-temperature records could be broken through the weekend – including in Death Valley, California, one of the hottest places on earth." That blurb in there about DV will be interesting to test. The specter of major heat has been looming on the mass-field numerical techniques, and in operational charts, for over a week. Now seeing it manifest more deterministically ... by whatever discrete means being employed. longer observation and hypothesis: I'm noticing two distinct concerns looking east across the country over the ensuing week, thereafter. Originally, the extended range thought to release that SW heat, more en masse, sending into a R-wave rollout ... due to the general PNA --> -PNAP flow structure. That's the basics for SW/Sonoran release events and continental heat burst takes place. But, since, the model have been biasing the trough-ridge coupled whole-scale, west of standard model for -PNAP. That's causing at various run times over the last several days, a tendency for the wholescale flow to take on a quasi -omega flow type, with Pac NW trough, Chicago death dome inferno, and blunting flow that is apparently more impenetrable than a stellar neutronium core along and off the EC. Jesus... It doesn't look like there's anything that really is causing the NW flow and trough to emerge off the EC... almost more like an artifact of the models - I surmise it may actually be the heat in the mid latitude/mid-riff of the country, itself. A scenario that repeats in the deep extended, too. I've seen/suspected this during other summers over the years. In both scenarios, the PNA establishing the -PNAP over the country, sends a heat explosion that's so intense, it is super-imposing over the initial ridge response, and that physical feed-back causes that west bias as the two come into sync. That's a non-linear wave effect, incarnate. In order to be 108 in the STL-ORD longitude, it's gotta be 62 with an east wind in Boston. The NAO is neutralized or modestly even positive through this next 10 days to two weeks. It doesn't seem there is any other reason to anchor lower height between Bermuda and the EC ... other than R-wave dispersion forcing the troposphere to tip backward and dive SE off the "planetary heat" bomb that may set up when the initial -PNAP orients, right as the Sonoran/Central Valley California/Pheonix air mass is getting ejected into it. It is what it is... It may be that we never can get the truly awesome heat here because these super-synoptic wave events will tend to do that.

And working at home is a great cultural turn for us nudists … Thank you Covid !

Something aeronautic ... The streamer shot out over eastern CT is a hint that some sort of propulsion was likely involved to have covered that distance so fast. Seems to also be vectored back to those high intensity DBZ blips. Who knows, maybe some experiment or illegal dump heh

Tomorrow's a sneaking humid day - Looks like residual debris band if not ongoing elevated instability moving through in the overnight/predawn, then tends to allow sun punch through into a fresh moisture ... I dunno. Machine (MEX) didn't look too impressive at 60F, but synoptics and experience together argues for a richer experience than that. T1 on the NAM has +24C at Logan at 18Z-21Z (in full sun the 2-meter's about 27 in reality!) on a wind from 260 ( W by WSW..), with no advecting sourc of drying air. Not sure why the machine has DP less than the overnight lows in/after .5" in QPF has fallen. Seems a bit off. we'll see.. and unless there's a high cirrus problem ...we're getting some pretty tall hard sun shining into a theta-e rich lower level.

Some of these meso runs ( albeit outside their better performance windows) look suspect for EOFies on Thursday. Seeing a precarious warm frontal arm NW of NYC-BOS axis over the interior, with a potent mid level jet relay moving along it during the morning and early afternoon... It's not a slam dunk look for that, no. But having a low moving along that axis with mid level jet feeds portrays wet warm sector with low lcls intruded into the ORH/SE areas. The NAM wants more of strata rain with embedded convective stripes ...those can be prolific rainers over short durations as a ball sequences through...but I'd remind that it was system(s) like this that brought unusual convection and even tor results over SE zones, Cape and the Islands over recent years. Not sure this sort of climo/local studies event is SPC's thing so don't bother -

Looking forward to Thursday. Convectively augmented overrunning with unusual jet mechanics … things get tricky when that happens. Summers don’t typically have mid level exit entrance relays quite as intense as that looks and if pwat spikes/infuses that could surprise bust guidance. Would not be surprised if some locations overproduce is all. Not talking Noah time but corrective some of the way

Huh. interesting... 2 days ago, that was +23C ... Nice 25 swing

Frost in autumn ..heh. Seriously ...I think it's not one size fits all. Some are sensy to tree pollen, others it waits until molds/spores and rag-weed type stuff in Aug/Sep. Those that didn't breast feed are screwed either way ... But this year is interestingly dense with these plume events. What's up with that - right? We're getting "pollen squalls" - I didn't even know that was a thing. I mean, we've seen 'ribbon' echo boundaries along BDs in the past but that thing last week like a f haboob. jesus. And trying to do workouts, outside, have been triggering hack and spits. Pure speculation, the Doom's Day dry soil that backseats murder in the Ukraine ... maybe it's just a timing thing? Why would it be worse this particular year? I'm just wonder if it's not, but just timing the former weirdly.

It's time's like these I wonder if this pass-time on whole is just an on-line a spill way for those to release some toxic aspect of their personality in general, and that weather and weather types "suffered" is just mechanism and isn't even really what's chaffing at them. Because nothing appears to make them happy. I mean if 73/40 squarely occupying both weekends days isn't eventful enough? So the narrative shifts to ...oh the humanity of soil moisture. Haha. wow. Like oh-my-tedium-god, can we scrape and find something to gripe. "Must ... gripe" through death gasps for having breathed in splendor. I get it ..it's about different groups with different preferences. Some really like perfect weekend weather that cannot sanely be diminished for it's utipic value. While others - I guess - can't stand the fact that we just got that on with both Saturday and Sunday like we had, and continue to do so through mid week, before a fast moving maintenance perfection rain happens on Thursday ... A shockingly too Disney distribution in space and time - particularly considering a CC era increasingly more apt to blow houses of foundations and toss babies across the seas, and melt asphalt in summers. I mean these alternatives are so much better. It's gotta be our own special brand of that western cultural psychobabble issue of being overly stimulated. It's gone on 80 years... so long it's causing kind of "institutionally entitled" access to excitement on tap. And failing that ...such that reality really only really moves at the riveting rate of what you see our your window right at this very moment, they don't fulfill and get some kind of depression or angst thing. And then these internet bus-stops of western technological amazement really just become therapeutic wailing walls.

There are chances over the next 8 days. The operational runs ( Euro/GFS/GGEM), as anyone can see ..carry two chances in the synoptic evolution for substantive rain: Thur/Fri ...then again Sun/Mon. ... All models also carry a whisky front through late Tuesday ..unclear what that will do. Probably a broken line of convection but not pervasive enough to mention here. The EPS mean likes Thursday for laying down total approaching 1" across CT/RI and SE/E Mass, pretty much right where the greatest deficits currently are. The latter possibility on Sunday is interesting ( from a pure Meteorological perspective not likely shared by the bored consensus in here LOL ), having to do with whether the max in +PNAP fosters an actual coastal storm. It's been showing up ..sometimes more commital to actual cool side, NE flow with rain ball rolling up ... Other times, it more convectively modulating with a low more up over NYS ... This time of year probably favors the latter...but, the whole of it is uncertain as half the weight of all esn and operationals are 50/50 strength and layout. It's D7.5 so give that time. In any event, we're dry through Thursday, then we get some chances at maintenance rain. At least we're not looking at a dearth way out there.

Give it time ... If the 850 mb thermal layout is indeed +24 C on average along the BUF-BOS axis ... over top a BL west wind, while predominately max solar insolation is being realized, that's a rare convergence of metrics. Usually one of those screws up and we end up 89. There's nothing wrong with 100 .. 101, and in fact, from this range, user experienced would tell you that 2-meter T seldom model that large - that's impressive for a D11/12 Also, we are no where close to higher confidence for heat strike here. This is still just recognizing the super synoptic markers, which we appear to have. So we'll see the model cinema as we go, and see how that movie's plot materializes over time. We've seen these normalize ... in fact, the majority of them do, because we just don't get 95+ big heat as frequently as it is modeled at D9-13's. Something about this season smacks of it though. Maybe it's the no rush to rain priming soar potential, with those ongoing attempts at GB flow nadirs.... a leitmotif that flirts with trouble as we head to the end of June through early August.

Tell me about it ...jesus christ. just did a 30 mi cycle in that pall. It's hard to sustain 20 mph when you're haulin' in chalk dust. f man what a hack fest

probably laid eggs there - that's what it looks like. my neighbors down the way live next to a brook that runs under the road... and they had one of those big snappers in their garden diggin' away like an episode of Animal Planet.

Bump for relevancy to the 12z operational GFS... The actual deterministic value is low - it has to be for D9-13 ( as it matters to us...), but the entire evolution from D6+ is a very good illustration for this post shared with Kevin, yesterday.

Well ...actually, ..it's a short google effort to find accredited bio-informatic that points out we are already in a mass extinction event. The most likely causal candidate in fact being, climate changing too fast for adaptation rates - ...already happening. That said, rate of species loss could also increase ... it's not a linear metric, either. Duh. I mean, if a comet smacks the planet and wipes out 80% of everything inside of a week, that would be an example of a greatly accelerated extinction event, huh. That is obvious arithmetic, I know, but the sad fact of the matter is, ...there is sooo much disconnect between humanity's various exploits, needed to run the industrial engine, vs consequences of profligate usage of nature. It isn't always abundantly clear that people really get it. As an aside, ...you know, it honestly isn't really the fault of our fathers... It was circumstantially unknowable - but that doesn't stop the damage, just because the forefather's of oil-fueled innovation didn't know any better. So, generations later, the responsibility and culpability was never part of the journey, thus, those simple dot-connections have to be spelled out. Those that now "use" uncertainty to dial up the rev rate of the engine, don't connect to a morality. Maybe there is large background population of sociopaths amongst us all, who have no compunctions in manipulating for gain. Or, the the idea of institutional multi-generational ways and means that provide the very spirit of existence, as being the reason for detonating an entire planet - it's just too big to wrap their heads around... So, of course it can't be true, then. Either way, it seems they number too vastly to stop - it's really like we are executing the step 2 of the Fermian explanation. sorry - not bloviating at you per se.

Our DPs are modestly warmer, with mid 50s at NWS ASOS sites with the typical 7 point bump out among the bucolic settings being baked by June lasing ... LI's are marginal through late afternoon. Can see summit towers W-N of here as they line up over ridge lines. They look crispy ... might be a spot over-achiever/shower here and there.

Southwest heat ejection phenomenon doesn't operate in perpetuity. It's a wave event. The flow flips +PNAP --> -PNAP, ...effectively dislodging SW air ... which then if unperturbed by intervening aspect, it has a chance to get loaded into the eastern ridge. Once that initial ejection sequence is complete, that's it. It's a wave event - not like leaving the heat faucet on and walking away. lol I suppose in some imaginative sense of it... it is plausible to have that all take place above, and then the flow pulsates at super-synoptic scales, such that the anomaly merely waxes and wanes from AN to MAN (above normal to much above normal), more cyclically. But I've never seen that. I've seen persistent tendencies to reflex the SE heights back higher, making it easy to heat up..sure. AN summers in general. But not in such way as to alternate between perfectly timed SW ejection scenarios into 104 at Logan destinies, in a dependable framework ( most lucid readers should be laughing at this point..). The problem is, ...there are too many intervening things that happens to interfere with the perfect relay of super heat along the way. That's probably why we don't see the "Hot Saturday" scenario that often. That all said... yeah, we're observing strange heat events with increasing frequency, globally, ...most likely as a part of CC - most attribution studies leave really no room for doubt. These events bring factors together, giving "rise" ( haha) to synergistic results that models couldn't see. Like 117 F where it never has happened type oddities. I'm not saying we can't get into an ensemble line wobble between 94 and 107 ... I'm only here to say that we're experimenting with time, and how long it takes for one of those freak heater to hit home ...as a single wave event, and trying to be proactive and identifying ways to get that done.

Yeah ...we're all noticing the same thing - or should be... Personally watching the deep SW/Central Valley of California out through the Sonora/desert regions. The nearer term +PNAP lids that region and sends superb heating potential through the roof. Some runs have been nearing historic - gosh forbid the local ocean/land cycle should break down and send that air mass to the coast. That rarely happens but it's been a long while since a solid Sana Ana wind set yard brush afire.. heh...hyperbole. But, the GFS severs that air mass and ejects into the flow, during a non-hydrostatic ridge bulge. The +PNAP --> -PNAP is presented. That's the leading relay for big heat; then if EML/associated kinetic 850 air layer gets sent along with the transition... Brian and I were just discussing this early today, matter of fact. The possibility of a significant positive temperature anomaly mid month has its origin in the D5-8 range in the SW, and we'll see if said relay takes place like the GFS operational plans. The telecon is less than useful until about October 10 ... but, it doesn't hurt to see the (AO/NAO) going neutral, with the PNA slumping negative D10+, ...thus fitting that this signal.

Yeah... it's called the American Weather Forums Twilight Zone addition

Yeah I wasn't paying that close attention to your region of CT ...but here, we have not seen sun since Monday.

For some reason I'm having trouble getting font to bold ... but, "We just need to tap one of these near record mid level warmth airmasses with the right downsloping WNW flow" I could not agree more vehemently. We're playing with fire. It's a matter of time. Personally? I'm certain. I keep seeing us miss, just oh so close... Like a big right hand hitter lifting fly balls to the warning track 'cause he's a fraction of angle off on the baseball that game - it doesn't mean he's gonna fly out all season. In that metaphor, the 'season' being the next 10 .. 20 .. 50 years..etc. In recent years, that 2017 historic non-hydrostatic height balloon over eastern mid latitude N/A ...did not have a SW heat ejection plugged into it. Contrasting, we may observe those ejections mangled into flatter, or too transient ridge scenarios that offer other problems not allowing free/synergistic temperature rises... It kind of reminds me of that February, 2015 - using the antithesis. Earlier in January that winter ...I recall saying the pattern was playing with fire ( weird word choice), because these obscene cold air masses were knifing in for 24 to 36 hours, rolling out and then it would rain - the S/W frequency was there, and they were potent. We just needed the polar to sync up - it was a temporal spacing issue. Boom - We've been avoiding the dire heat scenario by 'luck' is some senses of it all.

See...I feel uneasy with this mode of thinking ^ Simple logic, the climate is unstable. In this case, moving in a predictive +delta Climate cannot = D(climate) Reliance/assumptions footed upon a past climate that was not in the same delta ( changing...), makes using that in present era, dicey for me. That said, I also see the winters pattern behaviors as being effected in the same way over the last 10 years, doing so, regardless of ENSO this, or polar index decadal that, or PDO/AMO ... solar dogs and cats. It's not only an homage to the notion that past climate is less reliable, but it also tells me that there is an unknown forcing here that could very well mean that winter distribution of cold and snow will continue to result in unexpected ways. I short, 70 years means less to me in delat(climate), and then also adding trend of observable/objective pattern analsys/biases over recency ... 40 years ago, if some said to me, 'that hasn't happen in 70 years' I'd be more impressed than saying so in 2022, when climate oddities are raining.

There we go Brian ... Maybe you looked at a different Sat source/rendering than COD, but just in the last 2 frames, there's more of that under glue being exposed by the back edge. But my hunch is that it punches through in this case ... with the June sun and nothing above it. It'll be an interesting little nerd project for the mid day. Lol

I didn't do that... The receding frost line is about as harmlessly generic, and in fact, not exposing to any agenda, as one can be considering the subject matter of CC is real ... ...whether we want to believe it or not. To wit, that means seasonal frost line recedes. The HC stuff is one component in the total CC manifold. As far as your 6th winter? you didn't ask me but I put that at 50/50.