Typhoon Tip

Yeah...that sea ice engagement over there in the climate sub-forum ? This'll probably irk folk, oh well... I'm not sure that stuff has much use for me. The arctic ice is holding up better ...okay - within a realm of totally f'ed implications. (I'm not shading you here...just using it as statement catalyst). Yet, there's this kind of comfort seeking ( I suspect) aspect, evinced by the quickness in which posting happens where the weekly numbers expose were above x-y-z years within the group f'ed implications. When in reality, we are also behind a lot in that same group since 2000, all which are dire. It seems that's a hope support group.

mm... I dunno about this subjective stuff - mainly because by nature of it, one does not ever 'really' influence folks with their pearls of wisdom and arresting powers of speech .. lol Shakespeare would surely fail, amid this vitriolic hoi polloi, so ...heh, the attempt may not work too well. That said, still, the number of days in June that were of that chamber ilk, I'm pretty sure exceeds the total any summer typically allots. Check this, but it 'seems' like 20 out of 30 of those days were competitive for 'top 10' ranking, and considering there are only 12 weeks of summer, and ... there was still decent days in July adding to the bliss total, I'm not sure we really have room here for much complaint. It's certainly not timely ... And since, getting two back to back, week long heat waves certainly becomes erosive to patience. It just means that the distribution of the nice days vs ones that are subjectively not so nice ( for whatever personal druthers), was not as agreeable. I don't personally think the characterization this morning survives the statistical test, frankly. But we do this... we could be flirting with above normal snow fall for the winter, and then miss too coastals in row, and we're comparing to 2012. This is an emotional engagement - probably could just say that. haha

Late to the party this morning ... but cursory evaluation suggest the BD has trended up the coast - ~ PWM by 21z Monday. I'm sure everyone knows this ..blah blah. However, convection is a wild-card. With all this ginormous CAPE things get a bit touchy, and that may not be handled well. That would be very short-term/now-cast correction if need be, but if the boundary has modest momentum toward PSM by 21 Z Monday, then... a cluster of boomers runs out along it, it will push that boundary farther SW of guidance. That said, ... not likely to happen - no. I see that as best and only hope for salvation. Otherwise, the NAM doesn't like a BD anymore, and being between 36 and 60 hours ... is not a good sign for BD. Only mentioning it because the 3km to 32 km versions were pretty horny on that idea in yesterday's runs, as was being highlighted. Yes the models a p.o.s. for synoptic... but it's also got the finite BL resolution...etc. Anyway, it's actually surging the hydrostatic heights over Logan to 580!! I'm not sure I've ever seen 580 get breached after the first week of Aug ... T1 is 30 C, but I've noticed with the FOUS grid, that particular metric is just about invariably and always initializing 1 or even 2 C above the previous runs. So... if say 32C at T1, given no interference from clouds or wind direction, should produce a 36 to 37C 2-meter... I don't want any part of that with DPs above 60 let alone 73.

Looks like 2-m 35.. 36C as a general SNE potential

NAM is an inferno on this run straight thru Tuesday

Imho June coming in legit negative for the month at all climate sites was extraordinary. But for warm summer enthusiasts it unfortunately ruined this year.

I’m not part of your conversation but just be careful using the significance of Logan … particularly comparing years. That site can flip the wind SE and 89 a whole week when it’s 95 on the Cambridge side of the river

Also I’m wondering about so many days above 95 … not just Logan but all sites combined. I don’t recall seeing so many 96.8 to 99.4s But it’s been dry. Been having difficulty keeping DPs above 65 on a lot of those days. The nights haven’t been terrible because of that. It’s been as much a story about large diurnal swings. … I mean it’s dewy now but thru July etc. So sites are “only” running +5 or 6 thru these first five days of August but likely that goes up by this mid week, barring BD i just wonder if a 70DP string like in 1988 woulda meant more 93 instead of all these 97s either way … the longevity has been impressive. Lol in-spite of the GFS model

Right...but the trend may not be finished. It's a rapid trend onset. ..I'm not sure as a Meteorologist, 'they new by 5 days out' really means that much to me personally. These things can manifest at different rates. It doesn't preclude this becoming that. They have a history of this sort of thing in recent years and this season already ... seeing this same thing with a closed low near the Azores and that big 500 mb non-hydrostatic ridge in the region is too similar in the broader scope to gloss over for me. - just nuanced and it is very risky to rely on that. Morph that in 5 days into something more? not hard to do at all.. But honestly.. I'm really more interested in the recurrent nature of that general set up... being one reproducible, and apparently...increasing in frequency the deeper we get into CC future. That may be the deeper point to make.

One 'cane, two nor'easters and a thunderstorm oughta do the trick

that was actually a good film

Looks like the NAM-o-romma ding-dong model backed off the BD for Monday afternoon. Looks like SNE makes it to 00z Tuesday unscathed by a pube. Not sure I trust that... but, the Euro not having it either... tough call.

Oh oh...well, that's fine then - HAHA no I was referring to Kevin's 1980s "Risky Business" lawn

That type of single species grass coverage is appallingly unsound to ecology as a whole. It's become outmoded this era - in fact ... - with new and growing fad ( no doubt in part motivated because green 'awareness' is gaining popularity ...pretty much because it has to or we're ordering up ours and other species extinctions... but that's a digression for another ignoring session) that is taking on multi-genera layouts.

Much better! thanks - geez the 5 minutes were annoying.

Figured it was a later arrival.. man...it is just f'n hot as hell along this end of Rt 2. We got an impressive CB head with conjoining dark towers punching into it, visible to my south - buddy says constant thunder in that...but we can't buy anything overhead in this incinerating gap in the sky. It's 96 at all home stations within a mile or two of town's center, with DPs 70 to 73.. . This may be the tallest HI we've had here - brutal!!

LOL ... even with a historic fantasy bomb ...the models must respect the Methuen nadir -

Actually Logan's METAR -fwiw - at 17:54 KBOS 061754Z 19009KT 10SM SCT060 BKN070 35/21 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP207 T03500206 10361 20261 56015 36.1 max works out to 96.98 ...so excluding Meso west book keeping technique ... looks like 97 to me.

Oh. Wait. Wrong anomaly … sorry

actually only 79 due to rounding conventions Logan's 96.8 for 15 minutes straight so ...maybe that's legit

Does anyone know how deep the NOAA buoys sample the temperatures ? I'm looking at the station temp at 44005 ( for ex) which is out there in the GOM E of PWM ...and they're putting up a 76F Then I looked at 44098, which is 20 or miles ENE of Cape Ann and their putting up a 73 - wtf. I've never seen that...

90 ORH 95 BOS 95 BED right up there man

The last four day's worth of nightly EPS means have been amplifying another NW European, 500 mb non-hydrostatic anomaly - roughly centered on August 11th. As of last night, it has breached the 590 dm in/and continuing along that established trend. As for now, this is really more of a hot couple of days by their standards, but it is noted that there are still 5 days - the erstwhile trend to amplify further may not be finished yet... This could be more an operational effort, but ...seeing as these 'synergistic' heat waves are very much a part of CC - as per well documented attribution studies - and this is beginning to take on the appearance of being a potential intra-seasonal analog ( meaning it happened once, it can happen again before we exit the hemispheric summer), it's sharing contextual space with forecasting efforts. The 850s mb has also been maturing along the same trend, showing a 'river' of hot air origined over the NW African Continent, ... passing over the Iberian Peninsula, where there is less means to modify, circumstantially. This won't take much more modulation of these synoptic metrics to become another headline event for much of France and the UK. Even if this does not destined to produce ( ..in fact, it's getting kind of late for their latitude), it is note-worthy that this look is materializing again.