Typhoon Tip

23 here... 36 down in Auburn on the S side of Worcester. It's like in early May, when it's 73 there and 50 here. Interesting to see this kind of set up more in winter proper - just sort of down the scale a ways.

Why would I have an issue with police? ...perhaps you are unclear on the concept of "Dude, I'm totally just fuggin with him" ?

In shocking finding ... scientist were staggered back when making the startling connection, one that's "never" been made, that the recent firestorm activity in southern California was interminably worsened by climate change... https://phys.org/news/2025-01-climate-conditions-fed-california-wildfires.html ( that's sarcasm above )

Dude, I'm totally fuggin with him .. hahaha Psychology my ass - I write as a hobby. I'm a published author. Despite other's perceptions of me in that regard, and/or their just loathing in general ... I have a facility for this. Look, as an art? one is missing a lot of colors on their pallet if they don't "get it" when it comes to the spooky perceptions of others. Try character writing in a novel - you'll understand what I mean... One really is not very good if one does not accuse COPs as having some form or another of suppressed unresolved issues with authority -

If you really are law enforcement in the NY PD ... you must have a pretty solid resume in the field of suppressed narcissism that ends up masquerading as heavy handed righteousness ... j/k - I think I heard that line in a movie somewhere years ago. Anyway, you should maybe opt for life- wellness. To wit psychological health is a huge part of that. Consider sending out your resume to say ... Fryeburg, Maine. Yeah, find some place where the soft tourist population of the warm season flees for dear life do to the onset of 'real' winters. You know? Where the town becomes a barren podunk wagon and outhouse depot, where cops have nothing better to do but to park in ambush and swipe their phones 38 hours a week, and the other 2 ... make quota by pulling the 22 mph over the speed limit folk just trying the get the hell through that miserable sub alpine abandonment. Relo to anywhere would be better than jammin' your head and life permanently up the dragon's ass of NYC's rectal heat. "No we don't" and "We want snow" are head knocking expectations there.

Did you see the 00z extended op Euro, tho? ha. I then compared the op GFS' PNA against the Euro's - just the single run. The GFS was about a -2.5 SD index; the Euro came in +2.5 5 point swing... Man, those two models just don't like one another. War Of The Roses The EPS mean is like -.25 ... so is lower than the operational's (likely) errant nonsense, but it is also higher than the GEFs. Seems like we're already entering the time of seasonal change, already, where the models start daydreaming. I do see that warming thickness have returned to the south over the longer term means, tho - about 10 days sooner than the 20th century climo, as it probably should.

The GFS very recently sank to the Pike before bouncing back N 50 or so critical miles over night ...Phew! spared anyone in SNE the agony of having fun - the ultimate goal of course. lol I'm wondering if the mid and extended range, having a boundary near by with waves every day and half offering 'hope' as Keven just said, may all do this whence arriving into shorter terms. Last minute CC shuffle I dunno man. I'm not sure how long I can hold on this particular winter post GHD. I'm likely to manifest ADHD pretty damn fast

I briefly got into an article over at Phys.org that discussed recently how CO2 cycle over the Arctic has changed from sink to source. here it is, https://phys.org/news/2025-01-millennia-arctic-boreal-region-source.html

same idea as of overnight guidance but bump everything 50 mi n Reasonable consensus at this point ...should be a stripe of moderate snows from the N Cap district of eastern NY across S VT/S NH with light QPF challenged mix down to Rt 2 or the maybe the Pike. The mechanics of this thing are weakening as it is coming through and that should limit the ability to truly scour out the interior of shallow cold despite a low track straight across the area. Should about do it for the Feb 1 mystery.

2.5" 13 on the season

18z GEFs corrected the low track dramatically sw some 250 mi for Fri evening … NE ME down to the Ma Pike Meanwhile the op version has observed continuity as the the southern outlier … That’s a pretty strong lean in fav of the op … too munch to ignore 18z oper Euro also S / tho no idea on thermal … looks like snow Rt 2 N with icy mix below then R s o the pike might even be more leery of an eventual total collapse …overall these are typical needle thread short side of mid range corrections. But the ens move gives them credence Not a major but may approach moderate or low even low end warn along a narrow corridor.

not that anyone wants to read this but ... the operational Euro and GFS were both a southern outliers to their 12z ens means, re Friday night.

It's not the most sciency thing to say ... but it seems like there's a signal out there that is being masked by the operational tenor - trying to hide it. muah hahaha. Seriously though, if the EPO cold source alleviates while the PNA is neutral neggy ...that signal above may emerge in time. time will tell, but the EPO is the only thing sticking winter heads in the sand. So long as it's enabling, they'll be happy to stay buried.

Proooobably not with the 'climate alarmists on this forum' Most of those that I have read are not really alarmists (first of all...). If there are really alarmists among us ... they are too few to care. Everyone else demonstrate enough intelligence that it is more likely they understand that the above d-day clock concept covers a spectrum of threats. Duh. It is less likely they would even mention it, as the content as it relates to CC and the risks therein, are quite remedial to the going understandings about climate change objective reality. Climate is just one facet in the d-day clock's larger compendium of risks, all of which are man made ... etc. That's the purpose of it.

It may have started that trend at 6z

The ONI distraction ( to me ) is another expose into coupling breakdown

No one asking me and I’m just poking my nose in but … imho, as soon as the hemisphere decides to switch off the EPO cold source, all wintery and/or outlook expectations related to will find themselves surprising wrong while mid latitude continent balms out disproportionately, when more than the climate-based ‘above normal’ takes over. Basically reminds everyone where the world really is When that happens is your question

May be short duration but we’re getting easily advisory scale wind gusting, leaning tree tops and audible indoors

Re the 1st/2nd, I'm not sure I totally buy the N corrections at 00z. I'd like to see any 'needle thread' scenario inside of 4.5 days before feeling very confident. This recent event that laid down 4-6" regionally was also errantly handled at this range - owing to the higher compression and speed soaked flow. FWIW the 06z GFS with just a small adjustment S and brought mix/ ice to Rt 2, possibly even the Pike. Not a major event, but for those feeling a bit winter storm lorn ... it's better than nothing.

I dunno if any of that's going to happen but that 06z GFS was a hoot. Clipper, then whatever GHD ... then, two SW flow snow burst events, finally ending in a cold available coastal. None of which were majors but kinda like shouldn't be there? the clipper and GHD are okay but those latter ones. The interesting nerd aspect, all's during a -PNA/+NAO It doesn't have a lot of support from the other guidance ... or the super synoptic indicators for that matter, but I guess it's not physically impossible either.

no it sucks... nothing' to see here - ha Imagine if this happen now, with the modernity of physical society: "People in New England, and in its geological extension southward through Long Island, have felt small earthquakes and suffered damage from infrequent larger ones since colonial times. Moderately damaging earthquakes strike somewhere in the region every few decades, and smaller earthquakes are felt roughly twice a year. The Boston area was damaged three times within 28 years in the middle 1700's, and New York City was damaged in 1737 and 1884. The largest known New England earthquakes occurred in 1638 (magnitude 6.5) in Vermont or New Hampshire, and in 1755 (magnitude 5.8) offshore from Cape Ann northeast of Boston. The Cape Ann earthquake caused severe damage to the Boston waterfront. The most recent New England earthquake to cause moderate damage occurred in 1940 (magnitude 5.6) in central New Hampshire."

re-assessed to 3.9

Same with me... I went out to the Bay area back in 2021 and hoped I would get to experience the shake - nothing. Yet, there's been a few of these minor rattlers in recent decade right locally. I hadn't felt any of them tho. This one, I did, and it was first to finally feel that. It's definitely a different vibe to the type of vibration from the freight trains going by - which unfortunately limits the re-sail-abiility of my house but that's a different matter. Anyway, you get the distinct impression of having 0 control/ 'what's happening'

There it is! M 4.1 - 13 km SE of York Harbor, Maine

Went to text and there were already messages waiting ... Hudson NH was rattling too -