Typhoon Tip

Just brutal for the emotional side of this engagement. Frustration at an all-time high considering we just spent like 6 consecutive weeks with enough cold air to fill 10 seasons with blizzards; then, suffer that kind of defeat this late in the season?! That would be proof that it is time to put all this quantum computing AI to the task of figuring out how to get humanity to at last leave this planet. haha

yeah it appears there's an emerging signal for the 6th; it would likely be in that area of the storm spectrum given the -PNA , after 2 or 3 days of -EPO loading. Statistically, cutting is always a risk. But the continent is like so deeply pre-prepped with cold air, it's going to slope the system toward triple point tendencies... heh, assuming it's real - let's get that ironed out.

Seems the pattern change is being pushed back... this is nearing the ides of the month (blw). But, if we go back a week, the GHD system ( which become tomorrow, sped up by flow correction/compression ), was supposed to be a sort of last hurrah on the cold intraseasonal pattern, then balm by the end of next week. Now, it looks like we're negotiating a Feb 6th wintry system, and this below is pushed to after? I'm not a big fan of can-kicking in the models. I think the model in question needs to put up or shut up, in the sense that it can't be trusted. I don't doubt that the pattern may ( or not ) change, but the guess as to "when" becomes hugely problematic..

Man ...that's a wildly storm prone D10 ..12 operational GFS complexion out there on this 12z run. It's just got all kinds of embedded wave interference issues, otherwise that'd likely host something. But, it's one run and long way off in the distance -

yeah... it's a coarser look than all these dissection analytic tools that provide all those drill into sub-standard layering and whatever... but I like to use this as a canvas - particularly < 36 hours. Which this event is not in that range just yet; the numbers may adjust coming into that inner range. T1 Temperature in model layer 1 (lowest 35 mb) in degrees Celsius. If temperature is below freezing, it is coded as the difference from 100. i.e. 97 = -3 C, 88 = -12 C T3 Temperature in model layer 3 (approximately 900 mb). T5 Temperature in model layer 5 (approximately 800 mb). ...are all at or less than 0C, and this synoptics isn't really placing a 700 mb elevated warm layer, so "as is" this is a snow column at Logan unless there's a some very low level warm layer, but .41 QPF is enough fall rates to overcome that. Probably west of Boston is no problem relative to these numbers, either way.

At least as far as the NAM's old fashion FOUS product, the grid is all snow at Logan on this 12z run. I realize some don't know what these numbers mean. I've written the definitions out before, but it doesn't seem to get learned so - if anyone wants to know, just ask and I'll answer directly. 42041987425 04615 080315 42009899 48009967111 -0813 110216 34009595 54001763526 -0823 193409 31999290

There seems to be a pattern here of crediting certain posters with objectivity, so long as their opinions provide a winter-like lean haha

This has been the case over these last several weeks of mid winter pattern bias. However, I'm not personally sure that is supported as much moving forward. I guess we won't know until we can test that, huh. We've enjoyed episodic +PNA's alternating between -EPOs since mid Dec. That's about perfect - whether or not this has generated snow storms as a result ? mm, that's like the perturbation on the dice. I think the compression in the flow is a non-linear negative interference pattern but that's probably going to stop people from reading any further so will defer. haha But the PNA is different beyond this weekend's deal depending on the source. That bold is annoying! Meanwhile, there are hints in the spatial presentation of the ens means for elevating height along the EC/TV/SE regions, though.. That's a strong hint that there is an underpinning tendency for a pattern change away from the persistent NE Pacific dominating circulation mode - or at least a conflict. I also bear in mind the big heat burst phenomenon in February's and March's since 2012, occurring regardless of ENSOs and other longer term index aspect, and think of those as significant enough to be considered.

Euro's 00z ( I realize was not out yet when you posted this above....) was a big pig N/A trough with an endlessly 'denial enabling' hope that this is still 1996's climate ( lol ). Then there was the GFS with it's thing, which for all intent and purpose was continued on the 06z. If you're a winter enthusiasts ...these are quite alluring. If you're a end winter, warm weather enthusiasts, your frustration is really not that these models are engaging in those practices ... It's that they are doing so with -PNAs. Or so it it thought - Therein is the weird thing. Depending on what source, the teleconnectors are being computed somehow differently enough that there are varied index values. The CPC looks like it's trying to lift the PNA positive... Other sources are as low as -2 SD. Those to have whopper giantly different implications of the flow structure over the continent. One thing they all have, though, is a -EPO burst between now and Feb 4th ...5th... This will likely load more cold into N/A... It seems prior to ironing out the PNA in the longer term, that cold in the foreground is going to cause flow compression ( at minimum consequence, most likely ...). That supports a gradient footprint and rapid wave translations through the mid latitudes. The GFS more than less is honoring that expectation, though I wouldn't buy a car from it's selling points on any particular one of them. Just to identifying expected behavior is all... Not sure I buy the operational Euro's look until the PNA gets figured out beyond.. If the PNA become more "correct" as a low index state, however, while also the EPO index relaxes like both the EPS/GEFs suggest ( Feb 10 or so ), then we probably emerge more spring intrusion in the guidance with possibilities for early tastes even up here. I've been on the fence for 5 days now and the uncertainty dial has been stuck.

hoping this isn’t a cc variation of 2015

Needs to propagate downward or the correlation goes to very low skill

NAM with a wholesale correction S but it’s warmish

No shit. huh - I wondered about that, whether or not the eastern continental N/A were among the cooler regions of N/Hemi (relative to normal...) during these central weeks of winter. Without even seeing this - source/veracity notwithstanding ... - I had a strong hunch this would turn out true, base in no smaller part on the fact that the global means are still honkin' high. I figured it couldn't be like this very many other places - both couldn't be true. I wanna also say, this isn't the first time I've noticed this type of "picking on N/A" result since 1998. It's interesting... I think it's because the base-line perennial pattern features a western N/A "bulge" due to sorting out the westerlies flow; as it's forced to rise over the western cordillera it turns N creating a topographic ridge. It's subtle though, but when footing that under weather patterning, that gives a constructive feed-back ... Basically what I am getting at is that we are sort of situated favorably to claim one of the cool offset locations. Doesn't mean it will be that way every year, but some percentage of years in a set of 20 of them ... I bet we get 3 or 4 of them like this.

GEFs ens mean looks like about .5" with regions more and less by a couple tenths by mid day Sat.

Thicknesses are cold in this "warm" sector, though. If gets to 50 it's just adding to instability. I could see that wooshing in with a dark sky and light rain and then the wind gusts arrive and the light rain spends 20 seconds as moderate cat paws and then bloof! white out heavy snow gusts ... then dwindling as drier fluff as it ends. Temp crashing from 45 to 29 across 10 minutes of it all -

here ... some form or another of this is coming through here later on with that squall warning -

wow... so, we must still be under a warm frontal inversion up here... temp is rising fast. I just posted 32 but now 34 a moment or two later. It'll be interesting if/when said inversion passes off and the wind mixes down

temp jump from 25 to 32 here in the last half hour. Sun bursting through now. Satellite loop shows the cloud dispersion rather nicely. This is all sort of symbolic to an early summer convective day - symbolic. The ole morning warm front passage with overrunning activity, opens to improving skies and a temp jump... Then the eruption comes down the Mohawk Trail ... I wonder if some squalls might accompany the arctic front as it arrives. Light rain immediately flips to turbine gusts and white out wet snow ending in powder as the temp crashes from 42 to 28 in 5 minutes. Pure imagination there, as though the cold air equivalent of the June 4 severe day.

I guess look at that again that's just not doing anything. Man, this thing is weak sauce -

Anywho back on track re Feb 1 the 12z NAM is like 20 mi S of the current blended rain boning for rt 2 up in N Ma. The model wants to put them back in contention by a very narrow margin for snow. Actually, question ... I don't normally pay much attention to the ptype graphics. Is it normal for the mix type qpf regions to be blanked ?

Probably should move all this to the banter - too early in a month's coverage to derail a thread. Haha

I don't know if anyone would really like it? I am frankly a little insecure about it as it was a first go at novel writing - I feel almost more like 'lucky' the publishing house went with it. But I could also be ( admittedly ) imposturing self. One doesn't necessarily know these things. I guess here - it's a dry read at first, as it intermingles some character development with an expose on the "science fiction" created for the story. What's interesting ...as an aside, the sci fi has since actually been papered by Roger Penrose et al. As though plausibly more than mere fiction being the implication there - ... quantum mechanics in the emergence of consciousness, only in "Dominion" ( a title I hate but the publishing house insisted - ) it is sort of discovered by accident. In terms of quality...the feed back I've actually received is varied. A pattern there...where those that hunger and lust for sci fi seem to love it. Those that just like reading? they offer advice that it's a compelling idea but needs more time in the mill in terms of prose itself - to which I would never argue that. I re-read some passages and wish at times it were still on the editing desk - anyway,

yeah...that's a continuation of the same joke - lighten up... both of you. Jesus

We've engaged in this debate a few times over the years ... There's definitely some angst in the duality of the dystopian thrill/d-drip addiction, fighting against the responsible morality in having to see/hear about orphanages losing power. Firstly, the draw is the awesome. Just as some people are moved by a Hail Mary touchdown. Some by an angelic aria. For others ... it's the specter of big weather. I have this dilemma to some degree. I find the specter of ice stenciling trees and power lines to be quite aesthetically pleasing at a superficial level. And yes, there is some thrill there, too. I have thought about that thrill factor, though - as it pertains to me. It is really more awed at the power of nature. I don't know what it is in other's in their want of the ice storm, but that's really what it is for me. Perhaps less about the crisis... Very short window of satisfaction there, however. Because that soon turns to regret when the background white noise of civil living is suddenly rendered to silence. If lucky enough this happens in the daylight hours; at least gray light limps through the windows. No one in this forum ( most likely ...) was raised without the programming and ultimately, entitled assumption of electricity. It really is taken for granted. And it's not just about the inconvenience - oh for a lot of folks...that'll be all it is, and a little reminder isn't a bad thing. But there's too many people whose survival is closer to hanging in the balance and having lost power, whether it is for a small business ... to personal health matter, once the angst turns existential. Mmm... it's a dereliction of moral intelligence to continue to gloat and want of the calamity of ice storms. It's an odd one. But you know... in reality, no weather extreme event is really absent of the above dilemma. I mean, one goes tornado chasing for a chance to stand there transfixed by the awesome power of God's finger. But while it is carving a canyon through a town in Tornado Alley - those pixels on the video? Gee, some of those could be 4-year olds. I've given all this a lot of thought and thankfully ...as I've grown older those higher cerebral responsibilities as a human being have begun to shade scenarios that cause destruction. I've been able to compartmentalize the awe at nature's machinery, while still sending remorse and dreams that it would ever be possible to bear witness to extremes, without the price tag being ultimate. Yeah, not very realistic. It's about at this time in the internal muse that my thoughts morph into the idiocy of humanity placing themselves in harm's way. And so the compartmentalization is awe in the specter of nature's wonders; anger and frustration at the "Pacific Palisades"