Typhoon Tip

GGEM is 4 straight days of straight cool rain. Euro at least offers "parole" hearings. If the rain bomb Sunday overnight scoots along, we may dry slot Monday and find some mercy in there, but... the cold core - which may also be lagging behind seasonal forcing in the guidance some ... - then settles through for a butt- banged mid week. Thing is, that caveat about seasonal forcing...sometimes things settle out better with those deep mid level deals in May - not always though. Ha, how did they feel about that under 20" in 1976? Trick is knowing which way it'll correct. More often, the specter of it softens some as the mid range nears, however. We'll see. I frankly don't mind personally if we get 3 or 4" of water ... then pattern changes circa May 7-10. There are big signals that the latter may take place, that the general model systems may not yet be detecting.

It is... (bold), and it almost seems endemic to New England, too. I've experienced change from San Francisco to Chicago in my time, and that sort of coldest before it warms, and warmest before it cools happening almost at the seam of the change is more noticeable around this region of the continent. I think it has to do with barriers associated land-air interface. The cordillera west, holds cold till the last minute, and then the other way, once the gradient finally works down to the coastal plain, it actually strengths the mean WCB response. ...hypothesis... But no where else I've been is that behavior so well defined. I've seen a 52 F murk behind a strong BD in May actually find its way to a min of 49 F the morning the skies break and the warm front suddenly mixes through, and then it's 79 by 5pm, more times than I can to count.

I realize we have a 'sea ice -related' thread, but this isn't related to sea ice. It has to do with oceanic temperatures, in general... A fascinating user interface graphic: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ I'm sure for y'all that pick and probe through the web and research matters this is already known? either way. It's referenced in an article over at Phys.org, that also conveys some weirdness that seems prequel to alarm and criticality - but we'll see on the latter. https://phys.org/news/2023-04-earth-hot-sudden-ocean-spike.html

It’s April.

Watch in 2 weeks there'll be a ridge node approaching 600 non-hydrostats right where that asteroid crater is

It was the worst subjective 4th holiday sensible weather spanning all my time on Earth, period. Now … I’m hoping that just atones to rareness and not some new delicious peregrination of summers in a CC thing going forward …

I agree with y'all for the most part. But, I'd be willing to risk May ... maybe May 10 as my return date? 2005 is exceedingly rare... Hell, if we really had our druthers, we're rich enough not to waste time, and can set our return date based on telecons and model trends haha. But, usually, if it's ass bangin' after May 10, the summer's likely to screw anyway so may as well come back. Like what was the 4th of July weekend recently that was like 44 F ... for warm/summer enthusiasts, that's the winter of 2022-2023

Entirely actually ... heh. That's what it always is about, relative dissenting opinions being relatively offended... haha. But yeah, ... I've made no illusions about my own feelings with this particular season of the year. We have to understand ...there are in fact 5 seasons in New England: Summer, Autumn, Winter, Spring, and Rectal chamber. The latter of which happens to ballast along the April span of time..but can lapse either direction... And just like the other 4 seasons, Rectum can be more or less stinky depending on that year's rendition. We've had Rectums that are seamless to spring because they were almost tolerable. We've had other years, like May 2005 ...when Rectum proved that God himself is a shameless sociopathic sinner... This year...mm, I'd say so far it's on the lighter side of the spectrum of funk. It's not a bed of roses ( ever )...but at least we are not doing push-ups in dogshit. (I'm obviously joking around)... I work out everyday. I do a mix of machine work, running, then cycling, along a 3 day rotation and then start over. So I lied just there...I actually end up taking two days off a week for rest. It's 3 on by 1 off. The treadmill in the winter was really getting on my f'ing nerves! My lower back and hamstrings just refuse to take to it... despite one night a week doing yoga with a married hottie ( which has its own frustration..). These 59 F afternoons the last two weeks have been really quite ideal for doing 5 mi, which has been better on my hammies and back. I'd really rather the days be 82/48 utopia with hot chicks and stuff ... but all things being (typically) oddly unequal in our Mar-Mays, there's been some reasons to appreciate. It's got some redemption to it in other words? Weatherwiz, ...it won't take that deep into May - most likely.... Strong tropical forcing signal is emerging in all guidance sources and derivatives, and we've sans the La Nina firewall... So, the anticipation is that said forcing will in fact contribute to R-wave distribution. It is more likely that the operational models a merely not detecting that forcing just yet.

case closed...

Here you go Kevin... CPC's seeing it now too - ... • Atmospheric responses associated with the long-lived La Nina continue to wane, as the MJO is expected to be the dominant driver of tropical convective anomalies, and eventually provide an environment conducive for tropical cyclone (TC) development in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific later in May. • Extratropical linkages become less clear during boreal spring, however there is some support for Maritime Continent MJO events leading to increased mid-level heights and above-normal temperatures over the central and eastern U.S. during May

Pretty damn nice out for being embedded in April’s rectum …

Oh I've been trying to get PF rich with those land scape shots for years but ...nope - he just loves his provincial mountain dwellings too much I guess...

I was wondering if/when it would come around... The NAEF system has been selling more than the operational runs ...but the EPS/GEPs were more in line with the former. I don't think it will put us hugely over-budget into a 1987 or 2005 or 2010 .. but, might be able to see some creek side little legal ball parks under water. You know ...when green trash barrels and the playground swing set near by are half under,

Mm... the issue ( originally aroused for sarcastic humor) isn't art value. It was about when not being clear that what is being shown is intended for "art"; that could be a problem. Pointing out the obvious here: We don't know what is the 'organic' experience, then ... Which in fact means more in truth, as to the extent of what reality is. When someone titles and contents a Tweet without recognizing the exaggeration/doctoring due to technology, merely broadcasting their vantage point of the event, that is manipulative (i.e. can and usually ends up being, divisive ) You know.. op ed: we live a media soaked impression of what reality is, already. Which has turned that "could be a problem" above into a whopping IS. These fantastic Tweet phenomenon, regardless of aurora this ... or deep fake that... whatever, they are just microcosms of the same practice of the "Industrial Media Complex." Media makes money. The Tweeter gets their notoriety... Whatever the currency sought, aside ... it is disingenuous in either sense. The whole practice ( "really" haha) markets their "recreation" to the blind - so to speak ... - those whom ( and unfortunately, this appears to be proven > 50% of the populous) are initially less if not totally unprepared to objectively scrutinize what they are seeing/hearing... The commoner's don't have a chance. ha. I mean, the technology is beyond their scope of understanding, so the dazzling display is more akin to the first protohominid lifting a burning flame.

Well yeah... it is what is. Not to discredit one being able to see - or ridicule the significance of the event ( I was initially poking fun at the audience seekers out there that use technology... blah blah). I've driven I84 at night a few times, though... It seemed to me once 10 or so miles up the way heading out of Hartford, that sky up there gets pretty damn dark though. If "ambient light pollution" in this context means diffused artificial light, that would cloak ( ironic oxymoron -) the existence of smaller nooks that may offer some better viewing chances. sure. Man, I just wonder how a Carrington -scaled event would compete with the illumination grid of the planet. Well...heh, ultimately it would win of course. Because within an hour or two of onset, the grid sectors would start blinking off in chunks... but for a time, would you be able to see those unworldly spirits that seem like they could almost touch the tree tops in downtown NYC, or how 'bout "Lost" to Morality Vegas - that'd be the shits. You ever see those satellite/night displays of the landscape, and the artificial lights looking nerve cells replete with dendritic connections to nearby other nerve cells... digress

I did see an iPhone video taken outside of Fairbanks Alaska a month or so ago, ...when a sneaking CME that for some reason escaped the detection methods ... slammed the Earth out of nowhere ( or it may have been one of those "co-rotating" deals). The guy was moving the vantage of the phone's camera around an undulatory sky of light curtains while crowd oo's and ah's were audible in the background. He was offering some baser hick expletives of his own... That's in Alaska though. The last time I saw unaided aurora my self (mid latitudes) was way back in 1985 around 11pm in Rockport Mass, looking NNE from Long Beach. It was very low on the horizon and you had to stare for a while to see it or gain much impression of any irregular light pulsations... Prior to that, I saw it several times in Michigan growing up a young lad. Oh wait ...I forgot. I went back there for an autumn in 1990 and saw a pretty good display that was higher in the sky ... But, that looked nothing like these renderings we are seeing on social media so frequently nowadays. I suspect the ambient light pollution from PWM-ATL east of Appalachia also represents certain interference problems for ooing and aahing caliber displays, too.

Yeah, pretty low slugging percentage for the first month of this years 'summer batting' season...

was that witnessed by unaided eye, though? ... with camera tech the way it is, and pervasive these days, ... these auroras are photoed by way of timed exposures, that are then rendered to Twitter and other social media platforms under the auspices of, 'look what I saw last night' - leaving the part out that they could not have "seen" anything without these devices. I rarely see a disclaimer or any comment at all really that says, 'I am not actually worthy of the center of attention I'm seeking, because I could not have seen this without high tech assistance' lol. No but these long exposures can "see" auroras that glancing at the nocturnal firmament alone more commonly cannot detect.

Tomorrow looks sneaky gem like.

The giggedy range of the GFS with a continental heat dome forming ... I think in this case, however, we should watch for that sort of emergence in general as we head toward D12 and beyond, based on long lead perceived telecon modes. The ONI is offering less resistance to tropical forcing with the waning La Nina, which there is such a forcing that appears to replace this current ...whatever the f this is... I know what it is though - we're suffering a blocking hang over from eastern N/A and Asian early heat dispersion into higher latitudes ... but anyway. When this wanes out there is an actual wave signature emerging in the RMM correlating to heat, and without very many offsets it may couple to the R-wave momentum giving to a quasi- standing wave over N/A ... Speculative, but I personally wouldn't be shocked if early heat balloons E of 110 W

Going back well over a decade... I've been noting a remarkably tight correlation between space weather activity, and New England's inability to ever see them due to terrestrial weather interference.

I guess it depends on what sector your in - in other words, any lag may be below the regional scale ... Up here we are if anything ahead by ~ a week, so close to climo. And with the addition of today's water we'll be about on target for hyrdo too. What we are is way above normal in temperature. So, putting all that together and dividing by N terms ... doesn't really scream a belated spring for the Mohawk Trail/Rt 2 crowd.

That sounds like the genesis of a new narrative -

I'm surprised there isn't even a rudimentary sort of flood statement down here. Gray ME office has a statement ...

I kind of like the lower bandwidth rad NWS is switching to - or 'back' to... Looks similar but not exactly like the product they had prior to the 'pretty much no radar worth using era at all' they just sent us through over the last couple of years... Not sure why, but the "enhanced" product is not really as good from a user experience - for me anyway. It may be all primitive, as part of an ongoing longer term product evolution/plan. But I have an iphone, couple of laptops with Celeron tech, and a home PC with quad, 2.51 GZ processor core. Yet, using any of these, the term 'enhanced' would not be the adjective I would use to describe the user experience. I think the bigger problem is both the navigation response, as well as frame load times. Both are frustrating ... even on these latter conventional technology platforms.