Typhoon Tip

verified the Warning here... 7.5" 32 presently S/S+ ...VIS definitely down more so than prior hours of this though. 1/3 mi or so

Rad p/type just surged to the coast ... went from between 495 and 128 to Arlington Heights in like 10 minutes of sweep... It happened, interestingly enough, right when my aggregate size when small... I had just got done entering a post about the snow type being large with no particles in the gap... visibility being disproportionately up for S/S+ ... etc, when no sooner...poof.. .now we have uniform smaller sizes and also a wind shift more from ENE to NNE ... so something's up

6" as of 10:30am temp won't budge from 32.5 ...perfectly wrong should this kind of snow just continue on infinitum. Really would trade the entire f'um storm if it means not losing power -seriously. I really don't give a ratz ass about this stuff when my house is 100% electric. Be that as it may ... we are snowing S since 5 am or whatever... with occasional suggestion of S+ (Ayer), but interestingly ...the visibility is never really much below 3/4 to a mile. I think it is because of the wetter nature of the aggregates. They are big, and there's no smaller particles filling the gaps between them as they are fluttering down. It' really rather mesmerizing to stare at for very long. You close your eyes and the illusion of them lingers.. But, those smaller 'gap particle' filling the medium between is what really brings the vis down. So the vis metric cannot really be used to deduce the fall rate. It's not typical vis for S bordering on S+ Just a nerdy tedium ob.

That matches here in Ayer. 36 with 1 in 10 impacts are paws

I'm already getting a dash of cat paws with these light rain drops at a raw 38 ... Hate to sound like a goober but it really does smell like it out there. I'm not going the other way around here. If this comes down hard after dark, it's snow - no question. I just have difficulty believing in this situation that you're area has to be that much different. I almost feel that that the pivoting of the rain/snow into N/S axis during today could just be an artifact of this present rendition of noise - I mean the GFS isn't necessarily constrained by physics into having to plow a warm micro node into NE Mass like that ... it's just randomness.

Cat paws along side R- drops in Ayer. 38 You can smell snow in the air - really the first time this year I've been able to. interesting. There's a feel to it that if this came down any harder, we'd be over to snow with rapidity. It just a matter of eradicating this gossamer low level "warm" layer.

Don't get me started ... I've been trying to sort of poetically emphasize, there's too much technical deep dive reliance, and not even common sense ... The orbital perspective of the 'dominate factorization forest' provides and impression of its make-up that is obfuscated by the trees.. so to speak Not always - no... These tools are meant to supplement, though. Not take over... and fact of the matter is ( and too your point ) if one is being too far gone reliant You know, actually you can't really look at everything in time. Imagine that? Trying to categorize quantitative amounts of qualitative forecast metrics across a broad array, and then synthesize any kind of idea from? In 6 hour before the next siege that quickly replaces .... Nah. You'd almost need a super computer to integrate all the gunk coming off these super computers.

Could be either.. heh. I mean, that's the N/stream part of this phasing. There's not much that can be gleaned from that loop, as to how it will perform down stream - unfortunately. But, having it actually there and impressive means there will be a performance - I suppose it's good for that reason alone.

You guys do this... You get this array of models all collocating at long last upon a consensus, then run out and look for any dark outlier you can find in order to turtle inside a neurotic left-out-of-the-party carapace jeezus. fuckign rap models

wow... quite the rotational kinematic display cutting its way SE out of the Great Lakes this hour. It's got spiral arms ...like a galaxy

ha... took you this long? I get that way about Feb 15th every year. -or something like that

To be fair, the Euro is behind American guidance of couple of hours; we don't know if that comparison is true per 12z ...

Considering all that is immensely distracting at this time ... reasonably high probability that I am the only person on the planet that's thinking about this. Thursday has 850 mb near 0C ... in pure unabated Equinoxian sun. Winds are very light, too. So the 2-meter is 44 on the synoptic products. The machine numbers don't go out that far. But I've seen it be 60 F in mid February over a snow pack with 0C at 850 mb - not that the boundary layer gets that tall. But the adiabatic assumption is still going to be 70 .. 80% well enough. Anyway, bottom line ... major nape day/d-slope dandy. I could see that being 53 or 54 F with gullies bubbling with quick work of tomorrows snow pack. I'm just nerdly enough to think this is interesting -

I'm hoping someone who cares enough just a little more than me ( lol) to put in the tedium, a long duration high res loop of this things life cycle is going to be gorgeous cinema - regardless of where/what happens from it. Look at this zygote cyclone near Cape Hatteras... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Hatteras-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

It can happen though, too.. I mean that's what I was saying a while ago, all these solutions are plausible. It's not about impossibility. I recall a coastal monitoring effort not too many years ago... within the last five, where there was 'convective robbing' and most thought it was grid scale feed-back but it turned out to be the case that a conglomerate of convection erupted escaping the SE coast and we had to sit there and watch and say, 'well, guess it was real' I remember thinking it was a pretty damn fantastic model performance to initiate convection and use it to force the synoptic evolution - It doesn't mean that's the case for this thing. Situations are not the same. This really has just an off the hook 500 mb/ ml evolution potentiality and it's ability to force matters below is quite impressive. It's a matter of tuning in the guidance -

someone should initiate an obs/now-cast thread for this event. Like 200 pages isn't enough...I think we've beat the horse enough anyway

Was just talking to John ... we both agree the lacking/amorphously defined b-c axis likely causing the models like to Euro to " go out a find" anything it can to place a low. Usually some supercell out there in the ocean...etc. Not sure if that makes the NAM more believable, but it certainly a reasonable consideration.. the 32 km has a better deep layer integration ( I think this is true ) than the 3km, because it considers a larger volume of total domain space... When coupling that concept with a superior overall meshing, it may make this circumstance 'in its wheelhouse' so to speak. This is also what/why Dec 2009 was handled so well by the this model's ancestor version - it detected that b-c wall with pin point precision because it was like 20C across 10 lateral miles along a line between NJ and ACK that faithful day. Gee, where's the low going to rail along, right?

You know Brian ...I hate to say ( but secretly enjoy the opportunity ) but the NAM's (32 may be better, too - ironically) superior meshing may be able to "pick" a focal point for a low to "anchor" that latter aspect ( I just posted a popsicle headache that will surely scroll without many noticing) is causing the models et al ( I feel pretty strongly) to spray solution shit all over the wall on this thing.

I realize you're being sort of CT-centric here ( it's all good ...), but this looks fantastic for everyone really... particularly considering that this thing is just getting situated and will rage for another 9 hours after that... or more -

Which this next model series will suck, guaranteed ! There will be one model in the bunch that looks just about like a soulmate to the imaginations of the winter enthusiast, while all the others are varying degrees of angst and dither. The reason for this plaguing lack of consensus has become pretty clear - to me. This is for sake of discussion ... a perfect 500 mb evolution taking place over a hugely flawed low level environment. ...and by "flawed," we mean lacking a coherent baroclinic boundary/ ...thermodynamic intersection. It's rather amorphous, don't you think ? when there isn't a whole helluva lot of substantive difference between the sounding at BTV vs ACK. That circumstance is causing all kinds of problems with 'where to place' the low; that placement is necessary to more than less, "anchor" the total vertical vortex evolution. Without it, the models are quite figuratively if not literally ... spraying solutions by way of where ever the fractals of their complex physics happen to emerge a position in both space and time. This represents certain challenges to determinism for one, but a low will certainly develop out of the morass. It's likely that we are at modeling limit when faced with those challenges and will have to just wait and see... Or, perhaps they will all suddenly coalesce in the 18 ... 12, or 6 hour window

yup haha and all the guffaw ... but, the capitalism banter was under the auspices of "while we are waiting for the next model runs" - just sayn'

mmm ... this unfortunately may not really be true. Yes, it has "red hair" and it is certainly a clad colloquialism to consider it a "step child" to the U.S. suite of products ... But the Euro actually did better on the most recent snow event and total synoptic evolution despite the consistency of the GFS, during the lead to that particular event - That is unfortunately the most useful example for comparative scoring because truth be told ...this winter has featured a stark dearth of anything else.

While we're waiting on the next d-drip dose ( lol ...) ... ...I still find it interesting ( timing ) how the Euro corp recently relaxed a lot of their policies on free dissemination of a lot of their product suite, right around the time these performance issues began scratching heads. Thus, making the access less useful to the those seeing the free dissemination of said product suite. It comes off to me as marketing strategy because they know the GFS/GEFs technology, for all our varied criticisms has become competitive enough to loosen their testicle grip on a purchasing world requiring accuracy. That's my paranoid conspiracy theory ... ha. But it's the kind of move that's not atypical in capitalism warfare; they are stuck having to plan for the possibility down the road of their own obsolescence. That barb about 'scoring big in Scandinavia' ? sure... they're running the version that scores well, closer to populism for a "Euro-based products" and the users there will entrust in the cache of that familiarity ... So, they free up access to a lot of product suite in the off chance that the JV version of their product we are all getting will still be good enough for at least some market share ... and putting more of their eggs in better profit outlook closer to home when using that strategy. I just don't know why the free lunch. The moral of the old adage, 'there is no such thing as -' is really more like 'beware Romans bearing gifts' in this context.

People keep referring to this has having a 'high bust potential' Busting what, though? I don't know what they think will bust when every solution is on the table and almost equally plausible here. I think people have it sort of instilled in their deeper mentality that a big snow event not happening, must be a bust. But that's not really( in the philosophical sense) fair to pin that on models when they are all demonstrating pour continuity. If folks' expectations are high, and that is not fulfilled, pure logic would thus dictate in a situation such as this, that it is their expectation that is busting... IF that's what we mean by bust for a system that has vast spread and continuity problems, than sure - but ... we can certainly control our expectations? That's on us.

Spoke to him earlier … he’s in the camp that this will dynamically over power BL thermal fields and that models are likely underselling those physical resolutions in the lowest levels … not to be a dank, but he was actually agreeing with me – and I only say that really cause this whole situation is just starting to frustrate the shit out of me But it makes sense higher res tools are seeing it colder - we’re getting some colder looks as we get closer. It’s all a moot point however, if we can’t nail down where it’s actually going to be snowing for Christ sake