Typhoon Tip

Fairly significant heat signal materializing beyond next week.

I was wondering about that this morning.. .how it compares to the 2021 4th of July weekend of the damned ... Wasn't that Saturday, July 2nd in the upper 40s ? I was thinking that 2021 scenario was actually closer to the sun's perennial zenith. I wonder what the coldest solstice high low /diurnal mean actually is. I recall ... 2001 I think it was ( so I guess I don't recall very well ha!). I was peering out the 3rd floor of my apartment window over Chestnut street below, living in Waltham .... that May 19th or 22nd ... it was like literally a month from the solstice, and there were white rain globs going passed embedded in the sheets of upper 30s rain. It was mixing with bow-tie pasta

Yeah, and I'm being deliberately mocked by the models. LOL ... soon as the post happens, the new run goes out of its way. I was being somewhat sarcastic in that last missive ... but, it was based upon actual model depictions - like I said though, maybe they'll be wrong? The 12z NAM is hugely different for Monday now. Suggests clearing with the onshore flow cut all but completely off. ...seems to parlay into a warmer Tuesday in that cinema. Meanwhile, the cyclonic flow structure aloft persists ... maybe. heh...NAM beyond 24 hours doesn't inspire much confidence either way I suppose.

mm... provided we raise the hydrostatic medium below the ~ 750 mb level. This thing the models are structuring isn't a cold pool towers by 11:30 am type of look - at least not to me. It's a perpetuating NE flow of uber stable cold Labradorian ejecta. The ocean/Maritime source is a problem for that 'cold pool convection' idea. For obvious reasons... But .. the models could too pessimistic and/or just wrong about how the lower tropospheric vectors lay in. We'll have to see.. but for now, this has sort of a mock 2005 May appeal to it ...at least for the next 5 days ( yikes! ) The present severing 500 mb attempts to move away, but we dump in a fresh new N-stream turd over the next day, and that plunks down in to capture the lead. The whole thing deepens and retrogrades... In 2005 that exchange happened in perpetuity for 3 weeks and gobbled nearly the entire month. it was literally between 39 and 50 that entire span as a back carving retro 'great blue spot' locked in. Not saying it's the same scenario this week, but it can be "too much" to allow a cold pool with a lower level underneath that is very capable of becoming diurnally unstable like your imagining there . lol... nope. No convective salvage. Just enjoy the Labrador butt bang

yeah... this oughta send 'im up to at minimum, the lower 60s but quite possibly even 70, huh

Not to be too priggish but ... it was really more of a 'hybrid front.' More of a backdoor phenomenon down the coast S of here - if that makes any sense. Typically ( for the general reader ... ) the S/W cuts SE out of E Quebec ... more often times, barely denting the non-hydrostatic gradient over us ... as it sweeps past up there. The front that results beneath really doesn't look physically like it should even be there. But that's when/where our local geography dooms us... Typically there is a NW flow type at mid levels as the above S/W slips past. That is flow is lifted over the Dacks/Greens/Whites general massif ... and than passes as an elevated wind max that becomes slightly imbalanced in the lower elevation nadir east of said elevations ... as that lower eastern region fades to sea level (where cold Labradorian water mass and cool dense slab of air is just aching for a reason to move west ...) That induces a vector pointing back SW or W ... Now imagine if the above S/W in our example triggered a front to move back SW. That happens everywhere, anyway ... These fronts have a backward wash momentum - it's just a matter of how much so. Just look at the current sfc layout from WPC this hour, and it's trying to move SW toward Michigan ( the main frontal axis). But if we superimpose that type of momentum over the top of the above geographic/geo restoring tendency, that's what drills the "real" BD scenario. It's really more of a "meso beta scaled" event, as the synoptics are smaller then continental and confined to just our region ..etc ... where the "pure" BD mechanics create the momentum. This thing is tied into a wholesale mass-field jolt retrograde - actually one of the faster I can recall - different conversation. This was more a straight N-S cold front that would have overwhelmed all those other mechanics. But I think of it as a hybrid, because it is shallowing out ... and will end up being a BD down toward the mid Atlantic. Either way... 93 to 53 is a straight 40 point correction in 24 hours. It's a whopper synopstic ordeal. Evidence of this latter can be seen in guidance, where this thing isn't a one an done thing. They're trying set up a 10 days pattern with this cold local hemisphere anomaly.

Haha. Scott trying to lure Kevin out of cover …

heh ... the NAM's last couple of cycles buckin' for 60+ straight hours of 0 deviation from 53 F and 0 deviation in cloud cover and 0 deviation of wind direction.

yeah..it's sort of why I've been hedging... among other reasons, but that 'correction climate' is there. But as Scott nicely pointed out there ... this is higher end anomalous hemisphere so we have to unfortunately reconsider the lesser likely results, too.

may sound kinda to suggest but ... I kinda like the NAM's idea on this 12z. in simpler respects it's kind of a compromise. The upshot is that it's not the whole weekend ... it's shitty tomorrow, but sunnier on Sunday. Oddly chilly on the coast/shore exposed ... with wind.. but it may make the upper 60s to near 70 out by 495 ...etc that day. Doesn't help sore thumb SE zones, no - just sayn' I mean if the models are going to be right about bullying in that new N stream raging boner idea next week, it's gotta bump the weekend's thing right along. I don't buy the Euro's notion of stalling the lead and waiting for the latter ... to phase and destroy the rest of the entire summer straight through to Thanks Giving before finally switching to a ridge -out pattern that last through next April... and ... oh, wait. heh. No but I'm also wondering if next week's thing starts to normalize some.

93 here … But I live kitty corner to a brick and mortar town center

I bet that other trough dive next week does the same damn thing too

Wouldn’t be shocked personally… I’ve been an advocate for trending that whole mess east. It may not do that, but I’m just sayn’ Actually, the 18 Z NAM has clearing RH levels by early Sunday and Sunday afternoon probably gets up into the low 70s out by 495 in middle Massachusetts. Watch this end up just being a standard BD piece of shit boring uninspired waste of a journey. I mean it would’ve been an interesting up shot if all that other anomalous crap happened. Lol

It appears to be alone with as much impact …

Heh Id call that a move toward a June nor’easter jesus

This is an interesting paraphrase/study... https://phys.org/news/2023-05-emissions-pandemic-climate-reveals.html It's in deference to an actual article written in "npj Climate and Atmospheric Science" , which is contained ... The gist covers the effectiveness of 'greenhouse effect masking,' caused by in situ aerosols. The 2.x year reduction in global industrial emissions during the Pandemic, exposed a reality that without aerosol, the heating potential is greater. It quickly generates an argument in my mind that ( among others...) about the dangers of "shock reduction" ... You know, as a metaphor ( and 'think' we've brought this up in here many many songs ago, anyway - ) it reminds me of an alcoholic checking into a rehab. Detox can't happen all at once, because the shock can kill.

Were you around for the 1995 supercell event in CT ? I'm pretty sure you were like 2 years old ...haha. anyway, that developed along a BD. Other than that though ...I've lived through hundreds of BDs of all different varietals over the decades since moving to this region of the country, and maybe 3 of them had actual thunderstorms upon their initial advance through the region. Usually ... the convection happens two days later ...when the boundary is sort of still in the area as a frontalysis ... offering a weak trigger. You get those yellowy w-n horizon mountain top towers ... visible to eastern zones as the morning fog/strata is breaking ... 11am or so. Then later anvils and thunder is heard. I don't know ... is there's something discretely obvious about this scenario in the models that makes it unique? Otherwise, I'd be willing to correct the whole scenario a little little ham-fisted in the general synopsis ...which opens the door to like what Scott was mentioning about selling on the QPF ... or even just a standard run-o-the-mill boring correction ...sparing the region from enjoying summer.

Oh... I said 2003 earlier... this was the one I was thinking of - it was in 2002 I guess. I was working for Frontier Sciences as a DB coder back in the day, stationed along the 900 block of Comm. Ave across from the B.U. rec center. The setting was right over the T-stop, the 2nd floor above that CVS. Heh, I wonder if that setting is even the same these days. That was 21 years ago ...and they had broken ground on a new rec/gym facility across the street. That was the 2nd most pernicious whiplashing at the hands of BD invasion I had ever experienced, a short distance behind the March 31 1998 ... '98 it was like the heated fervency of a Titanic party crashing into an ice-burg. 91F at 3pm on the UML WX Lab monitor, 39F by 1am. Boom. That's a delta of 52 inside of 18 hours! But 2002 April was almost as gloriously horrible. I think it was 47 or so in Waltham that next dawn where I lived at the time ... so 45 ~ But yeah...that first hour was really nuts. Came through that neighborhood with stack plumes of steam suddenly made condensation visible ... leaning smartly SW across the city-scape. College women, clad in rather thigh revealing shorts and mere halter tops were caught out in the open and stood waiting in close huddles with their arms crossed - thighs turning purple.

Also ... just willing to point out. The models et al did that exact same thing ( if not to letter, in principle - ) about a week to week and half ago, when they tried to send a 500 mb severing trough component SW along the St L. Seaway, through western NY/PA ... I recall posting how strange that was to perform that kind of physically realized retrograde motion at that latitude. Eventually, it corrected E and we ended up with more of N-door/BD type frontal passage. I also would venture the catastrophe model outlook for MDW that we were dealing with the week before is also related to the same sort of tendency in this pattern residency. To be overtly too pessimistic in the D5 range. This thing this weekend held onto it a little longer; I suspect that's because the flow is actually showing coherent signs of seasonal break down with meanders and nebularity becoming more observable... It's like the models need more defined R-wave mechanics to operate the machinery.

Wrt BD phenomenon... I did an under grad research into this ... decades ago, when the dinosaurs reined ... turns out, there's like an 'average whiplash' value that seldom exceeds 40 degrees as the maximum 24 hour SD. Basically ... 80 to 40 in April ... or 90 to 50 in summers. The frequency of d(T)/day = 40 ( between 35 and 45) was higher in February - April, than falls pretty quickly by the end of May. If going by that latter aspect, this is getting perhaps a little late for d(T)/day = -40 ... But the event in itself ( probably in the 32 to 38 range when reality pushes back on guidance ) has plenty of company. What I found interesting about that statistical review was the definitive tendency to 'move together' ... preferentially 30 F was the standard. If it was 90 and the BD came in, actually getting d(T)/day to exceed 30 was dropped off pretty abruptly - though there were occurrence. Then there is/was a large smear of in the 10 to 20. But it was pretty robust. 96 --> 66... 76 --> 46 Something about the antecedent synoptic wholesale structure tends to limit the correction extreme, regardless of time of year, too. That was as of the mid to late 1990s and combing through chart library and identifying BDs like any TOtally normal person would ...heh. There are some -45 outliers though... March 1998, and since graduating ... I recall also April 2003 approached 50. Anyway, the 06z GFS ... well, actually ... the last 6 cycles of that model, is showing the inevitable bump east with the diving impulse/500 mb structure, as of this most recent frame, keeping it east of Logan. Day ... day and half ago, it was still trying to send it into PA, which as we discussed yesterday was highly unusual and bizarre. The problem is... the 500 mb closing vortex is a cyclonic motion - yet the model was trying to move it, en masse, along an ANTIcyclonic curved value - like the ridge over the GL was steering it - yet, while deepening it? Last I checked, NVA tends to offset PVA I think this silliness is exposing bad physics in the models. They all were doing it, too. The Euro/GGEM ...etc. Now, they too are bumping east. But this all has the upshot of trending the weekend ordeal into a standard cool shot and strong BD event - which is like 'more sane' haha. We'll see.

Seldom does virtuosity sell ... buuuut, - be happy this weekend isn't MDW or 4th of July. Hm?

I've personally never seen a 'big soaker' arrive by the means that models are delivering that thing... Truly a very bizarre total synoptic cinema there - for too many reasons to bother labeling. It just shouldn't be doing that.

Ugly ugly look crashes in Saturday morning, huh yuck. 544 dm thickness plume drilled all the way from Greenland as though it was targeting New England by Sunday. Then we set up a 5-7 day synoptic dread ball trough.

Yes ... but this recent 18 hours was augmented by this front. This wasn't really a BD now that I look at this. The front just descended on a steeper azimuth. It was what I call a "north door front" heh. The thing is...behind the front the wind cuts around the ENE but that's because of the orientation of the higher pressure being due N of the region. Makes it physically observe as though it were a BD. It may in fact be more so a BD down near Philly ...should it get that far S along the coast. I don't know why I'm bothering to make this distinction lol

I dare you to give 'er a push -