Typhoon Tip

62 here last night. The air 'smells' like summer, if that means anything to anyone.

https://phys.org/news/2023-08-deep-blue-seas-oceans-hue.html ...one fear of mine is that we'll go and have done something through all of this industrialization cleverness that pushes some key threshold of climate change and/or chemistry into the environment, over unknown thresholds - that were unknown ( perhaps because it is even an emergent negative property by the interaction of multiple aspects from pollution and temperature changes that are as yet unknown). On the other side of that hypothetical boundary ... there is a mass and abrupt die-off of critical oceanic means to fix C02 out of the atmosphere. The oceans have absorbed the vaster majority of the anthropogenic C02 forcing into the background state, since we started this take and take without any thought to ramification of 'species-method' for conquering over the natural order. If we did not have this mechanism, largely owing to the biota in the top 100 meters of the ocean depths... ..we wouldn't be here having this discussion.

Yeah, and the word 'hinted' was a conservative usage, too. I'd say by day 12 lead even it seemed all the major players were unavoidably going to be put into position. This was both modeled to be so, ...but the trend/abstractions ( the 'super synopsis' aspects), gave the allusion to the event. Thus, combining the more rational/materialized solution set ( modeling... extended or not!) with that... ... the thing about probability chi-test shit, it's maybe something to do with the 'chi-square test' - which is among the 'non-parametric test' ... The definition of those where they don’t make as many assumptions about the data. The common statistical assumptions can be violated... Sounds like something useful in the present context... But whatever, Sandy was just going to happen. It was a matter of ironing out details

Sandy was 'hinted' 2 weeks in advance Gloria 1985 modeling, though more primitive to ^, was placing players in position around the 7 day long range guidance. Oh, what I would give to have today's technology in place on or around September 12 1938. There's a bit of 'probability art' . What is meant by that philosophy, you create an initial day 10 probability that is relative to perhaps 3 main factors: seasonal pattern trend (is that favorable?); the general state of the MDR cyclone parameters; model performs in that time window - which believe it or not, you can have times when a day 10 chart isn't entirely without use. Each of those have complex positive and negative argument points (typically), and this season is no different. The season pattern trend, having that consummate ridge west trough east, was above average ... might be good on paper for the EC risk assessing, but it's not IF that pattern represents a -AAM hemisphere - which it did. The MDR flow structure hasn't been very favorable for long tracks that don't succumb to early polarward turns. HOWEVER, just this recent few days and throughout this upcoming week, the AAM has/is shifting phase - albeit likely temporary. The models are responding in kind to their own thinking with that structure, because they are bringing TC all the way across. Not sure we can disconnect that behavior from the +AAM.. The general state of the MDR parametric layout is good.. SAL is minimal. Shear in a +AAM tends to be mitigated. Ample OHC. I also like the fact that Invest 95L is situated along the 10 and not 20 during these early chapters of it's life story - whatever that turns out to be, this gives it a little wiggle roam for the unavoidable beta displacement that will take place once it gets its act together. Said motion would bring it farther N where it can then be/risk picked up and turned, should the longitude nature of the flow start to break down earlier. All and all, this is likely the best category it's got going for it - for now. Model performance has that relativity aspect. The initial approach to this should be that guidance beyond day 7 is intrinsically less reliable. However, as those events in history have shown, there are those rare circumstances whence longer term performance average has a relative work-ability. In this situation regarding 95L, I suggest the basin in time, is split. The next 96 to 120 hour have above normal dependability, ... because the behavior proposed by guidance fits the super synoptic aspects associated with +AMM hemispheric state ('super' meaning the more abstract/emergent tendencies. Longitudinal flow types tend to favor longitudinal results... ). However, there is pattern delta just beyond that range removes that reliance ... falling like sailing a ship off the edge of the world. It has to do with the reintroduction of more curved flow types - models are highly susceptible to run-to-run variance - almost no reliance. *I actually like the idea that we get a week of +AAM hemisphere followed by -AAM. The former delivers the TC west, the latter induces the turn (enthusiasts hope) in the right timing. The specifics of when/where/how/after that all happens? That's where the dice really roll.

GFS just can’t wait to get us back into tough. Throws everything it can invent to lower the heat too, then sends us into early frosts.

wow. NAM has 28 C above the 2-meter slope temp tomorrow across metro west of Boston. That's usually good for 32C walking the dog.

What we want to see is a switch in the sign of the angular momentum fields, from positive to negative... (everyone's lost! muah hahahaha) as the TC is approaching PR Essentially ... the positive aspect keeps the TC chugging west across the MDR, because the STR is stronger to the N (in theory ...) with less perforated troughs enticing early polarward motion. Also keeping shearing kinematics low. ...Then, the AAM up and decides to flip negative, which bottoms the flow out over Tennesse-ish, while there is at least a transient -NAO or even tendency there in, over the western limb of the N. Atl domain. That former provides a 'weakness' that pulls the system parabolically NW toward the EC, and thereafter, between it and the ridge/tendency NE, a steering conduit between also is an accelerating wind as you move N in latitude. That's the idealized super structure. There's probably wiggle room, but as long some 70 ... 80+% of that total relay of players are on the stage, you can say you have a good set up. Cyclones can hit the key slot - or has a chance to ... - and moving quickly by the time it's crossing over the shelf waters S of LI, the rest can be history.

It's interesting ... these models ( all of them) appear to be seeing the +d(GLAAM) state of the subtropics in allowing this next 'flurry' of MDR activity to deliver one into positions so far west across the Basin. Indirectly, our incoming dry period of days with positive temperature anomalies ... really is part of all that. The same super synoptic scale forcing that's altered the pattern for this new paradigm, is also what sets up the Basin to allow a TC to evade recurving earlier... Anyway, that all said ...and assuming we find ourselves with a well-formed entity passing through the climate key-slot lat/lon (no less) like the models are suggesting, there would be work that needs to be done with the particulars between the Great Lakes and NF. The circulation mode isn't right. There's plenty of time though.

it's a fun time of the year for us dorks ... I mean, the 00z 850 mb layout across this side of the hemisphere increases in 0C integral by a factor of 2 or 3, above the 70th, by the time it's out to D10.

oh. ha. helps to look at more recent guidance; the Euro's 00z apparently abandoned that. makes sense ...

So y'all not spectin' any influence from that weird trough/capture of Idalia corpse routine the Euro was drilling west toward the coast, then? Not snarkin'; seriously askin; I suggest no myself, but it was an interesting retrograde/ quasi loop behavior for so high in latitude. If that were to take place, we get CD'ed east of 91

47 was the low.

Not sure what the “standard sauce” is In the old climate eh hm ..between the 15th of august and the end of the month we normally clean house with one of these and plumb the 40s at night. If the shoe fits. Sep this is 60s. Oct this is upper 40s. That said … the old paradigms are vanquished … or more and more, seems to be.

18z GFS went warmer again by total synoptic manifold. Just heard that this was the first August since 1986 that Central Park failed a 90 degree reading. It would be a muse if Sep went the other way

Weak sauce shot across the bow.

I think that’s more mid Novie to early Jan but don’t otherwise disagree.

Too many small favorable domain spaces cut off from one another. Interspersed with broken steering channels and sometimes shear. I'm not liking it

I like how the 00z Euro finagles a way to prevent SNE from getting hot from those synoptics next week, but taking the something/anything method of approach. lol - It take Idalia's guts... reinvigorates and does a loop SE of the Cape and parks it there so that the warmest 850s' never really get east of the Hudson.

LOL, yup... I think it is poetically fitting as a violent disapproval for summer... Pretty significant failure ( being silly here of course...), then underscored by +20C 850s being well mixed, after Met summer officially ends. haha. But more seriously though, there's some use to defining 'when the corner is turned' so to speak. And it's not so much the scaler value of the temperature, but it's really more like a whole appeal. This air mass is in fact this cool because the hemispehre is tipping away. A month ago, this is 7 warmer ...so to speak.

shot before the shot across the bow air mass ... felt almost nippy on the open-toed shoes and shorts this morning. Coolest/dries it's been since prior to the June stench pattern ... that went on to claim the entire summer... This air mass ear-marks the end of summer for me. It does... despite whatever warm signals moving forward, those are henceforth autumn anomalies to me. This statement may inflame certain warm-biased participants, understood - what can I say... No offense intended. Time to adult reality

as though they want/need it - it should be without passion.

the inevitable ridge shirking has begun

Not sure where to put this .. https://phys.org/news/2023-08-additional-earth-due-air-quality.html

MJO looks like it wants to enter a destructive interference with warm ENSO ... who knows how instrumental it will be in modulating matters over the ensuing week(s).

yeah... tru - the floor is dropping