Typhoon Tip

I've seen that site before. It's a nice quick expose' without a bunch of busy data entry that's not very well described ..making the user feel a popsicle headache coming on. I wish they'd do some other index spaces.

So that's a pretty significant consensus shift by the operational versions across the board, for multi contoured closing low. Something is missing there ... there should be an explosive response as that much q-v forcing combined with height falls intersect the coast - it's really almost on textbook spec. I suspect it is the lead Miller A evacuating the dynamics away and so we're looking at a starved scenario. Otherwise there'd likely be a much more significant response with that thing. There may in fact yet be one, too - it's a bit of wild notion but I'd really watch that. It could be a weird scenario that just happens to be particularly difficult to model. The Miller A may be too deep; a weaker passage would leave a marginal dynamic b-c axis more intact - things end up different. The last Miller A turned out to be almost 15 mb weaker than the 4 day consensus, too. Predicated on the assumption that N/stream is real.

Fwiw, even the JMA has now got a deep 500 mb solution meandering through mid week. It's a coarse model which I have no familiarization with in terms of accuracy and all that goop, but it has the idea of marginal thickness with instability

Looks to me like Dec 28-31 is the next hot seat. Doesn't mean we can't materialize something sooner. I mean the flow being fast and all... it's almost like fractals are getting involved. ha.

GGEM too... just not as protracted. It actually brings a CCB burst exiting on this solution - It's all obviously subject to change with these ongoing continuity issues. Next period of interest is Dec 28 -31st

Fwiw, the Euro's like 1.5 days of grits and zr in between periods of light snow between at 120 and 156 hours.

Something tells me one of those 3 scenarios ends up more dominant while the other two end up just being vestigially there - like what verifies looks like it almost did either. Not all 3. Of the 3, I put the Euro STS at lower likeliness - could be wrong, sure. I suggest the WCB rain ball with some wind ( perhaps more so than this last thing) is highest probability. Flip a coin on the follow -up thing. But, I will add .... "IF" somehow the N/stream gets more powerful and digs to Hades that will wave interfere with the Miller A and we might start seeing something new evolve altogether. This is happening < D5 on guidance. The Euro's last 3 solutions demonstrating usually poor continuity.

Huh, what a multi-faceted menace next week could be. Flooding SE'easter Tropical cyclone 'hook 'n' latter' nor'easter with rain/snow mix

Has the follow-up ordeal, too

throw another rendition into the pile ...

I would have started a thread for all this a week ago but ... hard to see the doing so without inciting a lot of backlash if the primary ptype is rain, and otherwise ... failing wind headlines. Fact of that matter is, this interval/signaled active scenario was evidenced even prior to the operational runs in some cases. Most of this is abysmal handling of the complex interaction in whether the N/stream gets involved, tune and forcing. These hangover ULL snow chances are all happening because this thing is actually failing to phase. Any N/stream at all is a relatively new guest to the party, but these models plumb it down in and then the S/stream bottle rockets out of it and leaves the N/stream to cut-off. It's really it's own event. Also, there's cold air in the hemisphere - the N/stream and timing confluences .... where the f is southern Canada, though.

As Will hinted ... GGEM with borderline warning snow for the eastern ORH highlands

I was joking about that earlier, 'does sleet count as a white xmas' ha

Does rattling sleet for an hour count as a white Xmas

It's 'a little' less common to cut a low from a starting point around Atlanta GA, but in this era of repeating negative results I guess. The EPS 00z 500 mb depicts the N/stream crashing the party over Chicago. That's new. Some of the guidance had been fiddling with more phasing - this particular run didn't fiddle around! That'll do it. Anyway, whether that happens or not really doesn't change a rainy windy time for everyone - just a matter of where the low goes. There may be some 'pinch' low lingering hope later in the week but that should/could be considered a different event if something does like the 06z GFS.

18z EPS takes an east Gulf o/ Mex low west of Albany. Whatever it takes to avoid colder solutions in New England I guess

Why are we bringing up ‘94-‘95 so often? Between that and 2011-2012 I’m not sure which winter wins as the worst of all time. ‘94-‘95 is tantamount to, “Hey … remember that girl that broke your heart so bad it took 10 to 15 years to get over and about $30,000 worth of psychotactic treatments …?” Thanks for bringing it up… Lol Worst I’ve ever ever experienced. I tend to give it to ‘94-‘95 as the all time ahole because the Halloween storm in 2011 was such an unusual specter it kind of gives that winter a little bit back. Of course, then there’s philosophy over whether that storm took place actually in winter - makes that a bit dubious. Making any kind of comparison to the 1994 right now is probably the worst troll anyone could come up with. Beautifully done.

Hunga Tonga is passe

Over all I like the trends since yesterday's 12z abomination ... well, make that the last 3 day's worth of abomination. Which may not be saying much... the needle really couldn't move any more deeply embedded in the cistern of shittiness so any movement at all was going to be an improvement? sure - you can snark that back at me but I disagree. This was more of a qualitative step in a better direction.

Ray shouldn't be bunning people; in principle you are right. One thing about December events of any kind, they tend to be seasonal-latency charged with PWAT.

yeah, I hear ya. I spent time having some fun with the Nov 1921 ice storm earlier. According to reanalysis, that was a coastal. But that was exceptionally rare. By and large, it's more typical to get it done the other way.

This is obviously hugely subjected to change ...but, there is some value in noticing the excessive ( more so than even is typical at this range) variability, and not assuming the worst just because one may not see it literally illustrated on a given model run. This look is wild for the 23rd

12z GFS trended that way...

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-wildfires-sea-ice-warmest-summer.html