Typhoon Tip

yeah, the more i've analyzed the hemi this morning i suggest the gefs merely strayed for a day. there's weight coming from other telecon that offer less support. it happens. it's not an indictment before anyone gets started with that vamp, not at this range. we've seen the eps do that before.

yeah .. i mean not to oversell it - just don't ignore. that doesn't have to modulate a ton to be the first player entering that time span. i feel pretty confident - more so than climo for this range and modeling ... - that there'll be a system then and there but lots of time to iron out the marginality

12z eps and operational euro are more emphatic about my jan 2nd system actually existing on the map - heh... that's important for one. but, the operational euro's position thru ny state is a warm/west outlier relative to the ensemble mean, which is in fact, deeper than its 00z depiction, and also more se, taking a low along the climate track that typically does well... also the ensemble mean is showing that a cold solution at 850 mb is on the table i think we should be at minimum not flouting this energy here in this range. it's 7 consecutive eps mean cycles getting 2 mb more coherent per, and this is still 200+ hours, while the 850 is getting ticks colder.

gefs migrated though ... ...I mean I get what you mean with the 'ptsd' barb. that's funny by the way, and quite true. see, people don't realize that sardonic humor isn't conveyed very well, not in a toneless written media, so they only achieve sounding like trollic assholes .. i kind of get this image of a person typing with a smirk grin on their face, thinking they got the room laughing along with their grapes, when really everyone's going 'you're a douche' anyway, the gefs may come back.. there are some east asia/west pac arguments that combined with the mjo projections ... sort of make the gefs recent move come under scrutiny. the short version i'm personally more in the eps side for generalizing the pattern foot. we'll see as far as meat, the better hamburg is probably the 5/6th like we were saying the other day, but this one on the 2nd is still there. for what it is not worth ( which is a lot of not worthiness haha), the 00z euro skynet model is mix miller b with the 2nd, then a mix/snow for the 6th. who's with me!?

haha LOL ... hey, in the spirit of the empathic diplomacy ... choosing words delicately here. altho- it's true that that a modulating -nao is in that noise out there.

1993-1994 was barren of any snow thru Dec 28 ...then all hell broke loose and many sites over eastern SNE would go on to laying down their greatest snow season in history because of what happened after Dec was lost. it's an open a shut case... a dumb case/debate to begin with, but just fwiw - ------------------------- quite the the guidance source battle. You intimated there was a conflict yesterday? or someone did. Anyway, conflict is the first description that leaped to mind when comparing the EPS vs the GEFs mean ( 00z) this morning. I lean EPS and suggest this system is real ... at least more real than the paltry (if at all existing...) GEFs. but again, I'm not sure if the troposphere will modulate ( in guidance ) colder as this time period gets closer. In theory ...the NAO derivatives of both sources enter a statically negative value from about 3 days from now, out to the end of the 360 hrs; spatial synoptic handling would have it manifesting over the western limb, too. Meanwhile, that is not being very well represented in the operational versions of either the Euro or GFS. That's tricky...because for one, that means that it can reemerge at any time; small correction vector is suggested, pointed at suppression/colder even though it may or may not be presently seen. The other aspect is that these operational layouts, having less NAO ... they don't offer enough suppression and cold, so these systems are cutting inland in the recent operational tenors. There are two main aspects to contend/resolve for me. The first is whether the ensemble mean of the EPS is more or less correct than the GEFs with the Pac across N/A. The 2nd is whether the circulation mode over eastern Canada doesn't exert out of seemingly no where ... seeing as there's a memo in circulation telling that department it's okay to do so. I will say though that the GEFs has almost completely lost the +d(PNA) that the EPS still has. There's quite a lot of tension and implicit impact differences there. Yesterday, the GEFs mean still had, albiet more modestly, a +d(PNA) heading into the 2nd of January(ish). As of last night, it's gone. It's really been a remarkable feat of engineering watching the GEFs forecast system work to eradicate it. So now ... yeah, conveniently the GFS is no longer out of sync with it's ensemble mean. It doesn't fit the MJO comin' around the bend out there in 7 and then moving through 8, however. Nor the Nina foot print that's "suppposed" be strengthening through this period - these latter aspects according to the MJO desk/CPC. "...• An MJO signal crossing the Pacific tends to be associated with a pattern change favoring increased troughing over the eastern US. This pattern shift has recently become quite prominent in dynamical model forecasts for early January....." They both are -EPO out there toward Jan 10... and also have the negative AO... these are actually correlated well to phase 8--> 2... putting all this together ... it seems there is room for the GEFs to be wrong here - or more wrong than the EPS. But I have to fair and honest, having the GEFS/GFS now together ...mmm The thing is...I'm interested ( tho less than two days ago, admittedly) in the Jan 2nd/3rd-ness becaues typically ... events take place closer to the entry and exit temporality of large mass field changes - which is what these telecons are designed to mark in time. The EPS spatial synoptic cinema fits that expectation - for now.

every one of the waves the gfs progresses through flow that is being impelled by blocking to slow down ..( eh hem ), is preceded by +pp n-ne of maine, yet the gfs takes cyclone after middling cyclone right through it - these gfs runs as of late have sooo many issue with them, from the super synoptic continuity breakdown as of late, to these nuanced idiocy discrete aspects like above... not saying the euro products are better per se, but i still suggest the eps mean - which has actually improved during the day - for the 2nd(ish) is our next more significant system. it may also be led in short duration by some sort of a disturbance prior to the slow down around the 31. this does not speak to ptype.

it’s more than that the entire hemisphere in the gfs has been rotated clockwise since 12z yesterday by 30 or so deg. one should be able to perceive that using the animation above ‘differences on or about the 3rd’ if you took the eps mean on that date and rotate it clockwise by that approximation the two means line up.

it really never appeals to me to begin with. no one's asking me for my opinion of course, just my commiserate contribution if it is like this while lacking any event cinemas once we get past the holidays i really just hope for cc to fight back and go shock and awe early balm and end it

I think it’s related to the expanding hadly cell phenomenon

in principle you were right though ... - just that feb 3 came to mind. point is, this has been rarefying

for 270 hrs out in time, to mention also the erstwhile coursework of discussion ..data et al, this is a fantastic signal - and it is in both the gefs and eps

the gefs ending frame is shockingly amplified at the wholesale hemispheric scope on this particular 12z mean - i've not ever seen that at this range, frankly. it's 360 dopey hours but ... usually by d10 the noise of the members is transforming the mean into a annular structure ... but this is just weird what that's doing

i'm not concerning with ptype at this range... could be rain. i'm trying to be right for the right reason on where storm genesis/impacts take place in general. i'm willing to bet that the nao's influence on temperatures at this range is open to modulation anyway.

that's the one i'm more focused on at this time rather than the crazed unlikeliness out there in the quackery time range -

guys just fyi, it's not just the euro. we've been expounding over the first week of january, with cited examples and deep theoretical discussion for a couple of days in this thread. lol it's funny how folks amble in like, 'hey, guess what -'

early feb 2023

it's what that could be, yup ... in fact, if you cinema the chart you can track that/those as they get booted east through the continent - i was just pointing this out in previous post. the difference there is that if wave is not trackable and the height impression is more statically positioned, it's more likely to be an artifact of the ensemble noise.

no, i meant an event - but the point is ...the ceiling is higher than normal. that's still not forecasting anything specific though. the pattern aspect is greater than normal confidence for this time range, do to a collection of sources ... i call this "teleconnector convergence" ... that favors the genesis of events even more. just as a primer, whenever you see a large scale change in the pattern basis, like that which is clearly being demoed now by all three ens systems ( eps/gefs/geps) to take place between the 30th and some unknown time beyond ( in a similar time span) , during such period that is when events are more favored to materialize. within that facet, there are some markers in the eps ensemble mean at the time, and that's when it gets more interesting. any one of those wave spaces that times through the continent, while that canvas is going on, has a +d(amplitude) implied. that's what the eps had yesterday, which i annotated ... it had a s/w injected through the west, and it was getting a huge positive feedback from the aforementioned background pattern change - a change that correlates to events. i suspect you want a clear and concise declaration for a big event ? it should be okay to address the potential of one materializing without being held accountable to one. I'd probably would have started a thread/conferred doing so if i thought i had that worked out. in fairness, i'm interesting in the 31st ...and how it may set the table for the 2nd/3rd, but the vision is way too primitive for now. anyway, that's what the 'massive' adjective was about. it is just because the relative scale and degree of the background pattern change, being that it is highly positively correlated, that means the ceiling is higher than normal.

no apology necessary ha. just that folks have sort of a 'constructive memory' - if anything, it's good to point all this out, to avoid that 'mechanical engineering' lol

it's amusing ... but also - i'm not on the big storm train? not yet, anyway. i'm on the favorable pattern train, luxury accommodations, too, but just for the pattern. as far as specific events the may come about, the nearest one that may emerge is ~ 31st, which as of the time of previous words was 10 days away; thus, to rule out the 31st is a bit braver than i. considering the panoply of different tech sources + personal experience + personal techniques) ..divided by 3, it really averages out to a period of interest that begins around 31st, but really also has a blurred ending... i've been saying 5th or 6th, but really the pattern carries on right to the temporal horizon of the ens mean, both in the spatial layout as well as the telecon numerical derivatives. the latter, btw, signals the 31st still as of this morning reviewing those... the one for the 2nd/3rd is actually slightly less supported, and there's not really a signal at out for the 6th there ... however, the spatial/ synoptic and super synoptic ( this latter contains aspects such as trends and even 'intangibles' for lack of better word) suggests a correction tendency toward emergence - that has to be speculative for now, unfortunately.

prediction ... we'll get a significant system on the charts for the 1/2nd ... then, the 5th appears, and starts to take over for a few days. the 2nd perhaps almost disappears in lieu of 5th...then, on dec 30 at 12z the 2nd comes roaring back and the 5th is still there but it just looks like something's oddly pulling at it. then the 18z is the same-ish... but the 00z makes a sudden all out bomb out of the 2nd and the 5th is shredded... or, reverse that order - i mean, that's the song and dance, not what Tiger' just snarked -

yeah i've been noticing that too but i'm interested in if that stays that way. pointing out the obvious, the eps and geps go out that far and don't present that much recession of the height medium. i've also seen that correct back upstairs as it nears. so as is ... that's not something i've seen really in some 9 or 10 years - perhaps 2015 is the last time. sufficed it is to say, that would slow the flow down and allow things to amplify up under as oppose to a race between stretching and deepening rates... edit: upon closer eval ...yeah that flow over the gulf and across florida has higher compression potential than we've seen in recent seasons. the old "miami rule" works, having the 582 south, with a big enough isohypsotic gap that the winds are not already buzzing a s/w eating 50+ kts before anything has a chance hit the se coast. again, i've seen that medium down there correct back upwards from this range in the past. we'll see.

yeah ...my 'period of interesting' is the 31sth thru around the 5th or 6th ... the whole interval is heading into the basement. yesterday i liked the 2-6th - already posted but I'm shortening it a little out of deference for the nao uncertainties. that cinema above was more to point out that the background/super synoptic ( non-linearity ) of the pattern is so conducive that even the ensemble mean is amplifying the first critter that dares to pass through that domain. that structure is nuts for this range. but also, even if it is that first wave ... i'm not about to begin any debates on the temperature at this range anyway. the -nao may be handled poorly at this range ( positioning that far S is suspect a little frankly ...). point is there's room for correction, perhaps the obvious statement

the 12z eps mean was really just fantastic it even targets a critically timed wave space injected through the western ridge, then ... into continental arena of rapid d(mode) ... at 324 hours. it's actually got continuity off the previous run cycle, just more coherence on this rendition. the gefs and the geps have at least the overall signal too