Typhoon Tip

huh NAM came in quite warm. backside of this s/w has been sneaky attenuating cold as it’s gotten closer just like winter.

Is this the 10th nasty storm entering X location of the day? lol. Just kidding some lighthearted trolling

Just my opinion, which probably doesn’t count for a whole hell of a lot in this… but this rather pedestrian convection result, aside from being entirely consistent with our climatology for getting butt banged being far more incredible than any realization when it comes to convection ( except for very rare circumstances 1953, 2011 whatever…), is that the situation was limited by two factors: 1, too much CIN that would not relent … 2, it looked to me this morning that although bulk shear may have been numerically impressive there wasn’t enough directional component involved with it just by observing high resolutions, satellite, visible imagery, and identifying different cloud layers.

Interesting how these storms, CT and NH, seem to be advecting along with the western edge of the lid as it's receding E.

Left Ayer at 8:45 this morning in a mist at 62 F ... wipers on delay, all the way to down to Worcester on I-91. But the temp crept up along the way to 66 or so when I got to Goldstart Highway... I turned up Rt 9 and climbed the long hill, and by the time I got to Marshal Street/Pyramid Disk Golf at 1100' el, it was 71 - testament to how shallow the cool murk was. The region was enshrouded in this 'smoke fog' - the difference between fog and actual cloud vapors. And it was dense...vis about 400 ft, the breeze was blowing plumes of it through the air. It was interesting. I'm pretty sure the warm front was right there. Left and went S of the City by 10 more miles and it was 78. Got back home to Ayer 2.5 hour later and it was 81/77 ... now it is 87/77 with more sun than clouds.

Any cells that are discrete and polarized will tend to move right and into a progressively CAPEy area.

Getting the impression this BD got a second push because we're all the way down to 62 now. Quite a 35 F correction over 2 days ago... not bad.

20 minutes west ~ of where I was on Rt 9

just kidding there but sort of true ... anyway, someone mentioned warm frontal thunder - looks like that's a good call along Rt 2 at present hour Was down just east of ORH at Indian Meadows between 9 and noon ... humid and cloudy at 68 with hints of mist. I get home to see that 20 minutes west it's 80s. This is a BD invasion into a heat wave pure and simple.

I think that's referred to in physical parlance as 'acceleration' LOL

Was noticing some intense CB action organizing into an apparent linear complex accelerating out of NY State on satellite...and got to wondering - huh, no shit https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1357.html

Bring it here ... need to a refresher

There's actually two phenomenon going on related to heading in the other direction. The 1st is the standard/WPC analysis showing that the main boundary is situated along the CT-RI borders with Mass, and is moving SSW. The 2nd is this almost N-S orient BD 'acceleration' ...which is importing a somewhat cooler air mass/lowering DPs

Trees swayin a little bit. ENE accelaration in the last 5 min. My experience with this kind of momentum is that if you are down in NE CT, this will probably make it that far - in what form we'll see.

BD is right on the doorstop here. Clear sky to the E ... bubbling to the W. Looking forward to the ahhh factor. Vis loop shows it rollin under. As Brian pointed out, nice DPs recession for the win

Heh ... he thought he was lobbying a shock jock statement at us, but not being connected to reality so much of the time as he is ( by choice it seems...) left him kind of short on the fact that ... yeah, we're doing that anyway. hahahaha

Yoga?

Here's my excruciatingly nerdy assessment ... The pressure pattern at the larger synoptic scale observation shows that the high pressure over western and lower Ontario, behind the front, is actually the same as the pressure layout SE of the front associated with the WAR aspect. Normally that's consistent with a stationary front. However, there is a small gap where the boundary is geometrically biased N-W of that axis in between - hence the apparent N wind prior to the frontal arrival. This gap will likely be were the front lays in and goes stationary... Prior to that happening, there is a local pressure perturbation effect as Brian pointed out with the convection over lower Maine... it's giving the boundary a kind of meso scale momentum down the SE NH into NE Mass. It just means for eastern zones, the front arrives several hours earlier. By this evening, the front will likely be somewhere near the Pike... or whatever

They'll probably end up through your living room picture windows (or worse) if they are "west" of you ..um, be careful what you wish for. what you said is akin to sitting out on a tree limb while you saw it off -

yup...just going to post that COD high res clearly shows some sort of scouring coming into Essex CO down here now. It's probable that our built in non-linear forcing will convert the eastern end of whatever we want to call this boundary ... into a BD and that'll be the final nail in this heat waves coffin. Might even cool off down here over eastern Mass before MHT in the old wrap around

Let's get the TCU tower machine revved up so cloud geeks can gawk !

...I'm wondering if the gradient, albeit very weak, is N and the front is still not through. WPC 10:30z analysis still had it near PWM ... maybe it moved that far S but without a wind pulse that seems odd? It's probably a moot point on the coast anyway. Soon as it starts to hint at heating up in the interior Logan is going to be ENE at 15 flag snapping kts regardless of where the front is so what's the difference -

Signal for heat return toward the end of the month is trying to decay. Not sure that means it's really going away. The telecon ( numeric ) spread are still modestly biasing the NAO positive, while the PNA is modestly negative, from the ggem, gefs and eps sources. The concert of those indexes correlates to some warmth penetration to mid latitudes over the eastern continent. It's just a subtly more modest now that previous trend. May not be significant enough to even read this but I've been finding over the last 5 years that whenever I see a very subtle variance, and figure it's too little to mean much it's ended up being the whole story with shockingly creepy high whatthefuckist correlation -

we were on the western end of that ... looked like lag-back anvil deposition after an initial small cell on the MCS outflow developed and dumped .25" very fast. But that trailing blob carried on for a couple hours and gave us to .6" or so total. Needed.