Typhoon Tip

It's unfortunate for deterministic usefulness but ... the next period of interest, having large scale footing, is 13th ... 16th. What form that ultimately takes... not sure. It could involve some modest cold loading with a weak but real -EPO preceding but then temporal relay into a d(+PNA) ... between the 13th and the 20th. Prior to that ...we may get something interesting from sub-index scaled events. Just means they are too small to be signaled by large domain deltas. Warmth/ridging in the Feb 9 range ...could be flatter.

It's kind of head scratching, actually ... The MJO is [apparently] better coupled now than it has been for a long while, evidenced [partially] because of what you said [and I agree]. The models are doing quite well to correlate a late phase 5 thru early 7 - with when/if applying the typically lag. What makes that interesting is that it should not be, not in a El Nino. Perhaps more akin to a La Nina. But it's not just the ability to couple so well - wtf is/was the MJO doing so robustly on the right side of the RMM in the first place. That's the neat part -

I'd be willing to bet the 1979-1980 futility would have been matched recently if the factor of CC- attributed PWAT increases were removed...

I wanted to get back and change both recent titles actually, but during the course of both run-up week(s) I was bombed at work; and so it not really being a huge priority in anyone's life ( certainly should not be), I didn't find the time do so - oh well. That said, I don't typically use the word "threat," anyway. Not a big fan of that expression. I feel/suspect it is used ( if unconsciously ) to lean everything in a euphoria pitch. I like talking about prospects more dispassionately than that. I refer to 'periods of interest,' and then if those coalesce more coherently, 'signals' is warranted. I find that tact to be necessarily neutral enough. I am aware that I do reasonably well at diagnosing these events in the D6-10 range - not my first rodeo and have been told this over the years. NO, one cannot guarantee therein who gets the 8" and who "suffers" with 3" ... But the confidences of those, this season so far, have worked out well being set at medium for good reasons -I'm satisfied with the verification on both. But therein lies some responsibility not to inflate using dialogue that contributes to that euphoria thing people have created out of weather modeling graphics-engagement. Which I frankly am not even sure that is healthy -

4" 26" on the season

It’s interesting… the ICON and GFS tonight are trying to perform exactly what we were talking about earlier with the hook and latter scenario They’re focused on two different time frames, but it definitely shows that there’s something in the background physics suggesting that period should be watched roughly day 6 through 10 along the northeast coast, the continental latitudes

I'm probably going to be around 25 or 26" for Jan by dawn tomorrow... so will more than less of the front yards between here and say Auburn, east of the Worcester terrain. I'd say that's not doing too bad for one month in winter. I get it the Dec didn't deliver - that and the last 3 or 4 years et al is an automatic indictment on this season. Nerves are fried for patience. ...But knowing this group of "addicts," ... this attitude would spurn whenever there isn't a regular diet of d-drip model candy LOL. Anyway, the next 2 weeks don't look like closed shades to me personally. I don't see a major signal depot out there at this time, no. However, the general telecon projections offer a static modestly +PNA, while both the EPO and AO cyclically drop toward neutral... That strikes me as a layout supporting/potential for sub-index scaling for the event tracking.

Unless the larger synopsis changes the best winter storm enthusiasts can hope for toward the end of the week is a 'hook-and-latter' scenario - a lesser known storm type because they seldom set up. They're just exceptionally rare. The last good one I recall in fact may be that February event in 1997 ( I think it was the year). Out of seemingly nowhere the then ETA model, which only went out to 48 hours, came in on the FOUS 12z grid with something like 1.4" of total liquid equiv. at Logan in 55 mph NNE rips with temp crashing through the 20s, by that same late afternoon. This, from previous periods having little or nothing happening at all. Oops! A very potent S/W knifed down along N-->S azimuth.. probably why it was largely if not entirely missed by previous global guidance ( models were not as advanced as present era). The 500 closed off and the cyclone that formed ..., doing so already well SE of eastern L.I., got captured, and while bombing it moves NW. This is different from "back-lash" Schwoegology - not the same thing. It's basically taking a normal SW-->NE moving precip wall, but having it move SE--> NW.. Imagine the standard model and rotate it 90 deg... Winter storm warnings went up for eastern MA in a rush. Blizzards for SE zones and the lower Cape. Walter Drag was writing the AFDs that day... As it were, it never did get far NW ...at least, not as far as the UML/Merrimack Valley area in Lowell. We had undulating sky of snow plumes that occasionally shat shattered sparsely distributed aggregates in the gelid wind. It was like 15 F with that virga bulging motion overhead, and if I wasn't so pissed off for that sickening feeling that that was all we were going to get, I might have thought that spectacle was fascinating to bear witness... A specter that really went exotic at sun set when the sky exploded into this fiery orange and salmon exposure of those undulating plumes, under-lit by the setting sun. They almost looked like the plasma roils of fire... But, the 12 degrees by then made it abundantly clear the visage had nothing to do with heat. I think they did get upwards of a foot in those SE zones though. I'm not saying that's happening ... but, if I were going to prescribe a pattern that I thought might lead to the creation of a hook-and-latter scenario, that might be it. Exceptionally high meridian bias there.

S ... borderline S+ at the moment. Straight down style. Zip wind. Temp down tick... 33.dec/32.dec

Same here... ~ an hr of 'cat paws' and now it's raining wet snow, but it is snow at this point. Straight down fast fallers. 34/33

I wish there was some sense of Moderator responsibility to this thread, because when someone posts a statement of point fact, and they are met in return with these insulting emoji replies ... that is not mere free-speech at work.

yeah... this is late March event.

It's a good thing neither's been registered in/as the atmospheric response to the ENSO then, huh

33/32s and 34/33s showing up across the home network enough in multitude that I don’t believe that’s fake. Plenty cold enough given the thermal profile of this thing

wow

This is an interesting post.. I mean, at first it reads, "... Dropping from Nunavut to ACY ... highly unlikely" ...implying thus it should be dismissible. But look out! - some scenario at D10 ( no less ) where it is probably even more preposterous per comparing climate, 30" of snow at Norfolk VA, must somehow have legs. I get it - we're dancing around some notion that one way or the other we'll see some reality that is disappointing and seems unfair ... lol

I think didnt we talk about this possibility this morning. haven’t seen the euro. Stuck in a meeting

LOL ha hahahahaha... that's why I wrote it -

Mm... credit our insight my friend - not to be dink but it doesn't make zero sense. Whether it plays out that way? It's almost less relevant when in the business for just wanting to have the vision ability, because the fact that it's there in the model means that the physics are plausible. so the validation is already had.

ha, yeah ... total honesty, me neither. It's really juggling non-zero probabilities against the unsavory reality of NO probabilities. LOL Maybe theirs a modicum of solace in focusing instead on fleeting possibilities.

It's an interesting plug into a field that is non -earth sciences related, but is human sociological - ...the irony, to understand the following op-ed requires nuanced open-mindedness. I call it "the great socio-technological experiment" Basics: at no point in human evolutionary past has the advent of technology been so effective at modulating lives at a personal level, than these last 100 ...and in particular, 50 years. And that change in the populate, integrates the populous. Where this goes in terms of cause-and-effect is about as complex a field as Quantum Mechanics - if one understands at a rudimentary level, fraught with "uncertainty" ( lol ). There are pros and cons in how technology "enhances" ... but is is definitely enhancing for better or worse. There's a vast envelope of subtle ways in which that is evidence that ... pretty much given the daily life inside the Industrial bubble ... no one is set up to even consider. That, and the process is so gradual. Until the gross version of that enhancing comes along ... Like, "social acceptable boundaries" are no longer sufficient to stop a gun weilding mad person. Or, besieging new information in a overstimulated population leads to fear --> contraction of belief systems --> nationalistic modes and traditional non/progressive acceptance ... And it is not just a personal scaling -related matter. It's taking place at a species level. There are feed backs like brain dimensional shrinkage. Yeah dude. Capacity in general and lowering I.Q.s. There's papers about this. Adding failure of common intellect, there's less hope that a general bulk populous would stop a village idiot from rising to power ( ) See, the problem is an evolutionary one. At least as far as what evolution means to us. It's creating a "paradoxical dilemma" of sorts. Simply put, evolution leads inexorably to the inability to evolve Simply put, dumbing down. I like that. Conveniences lower the "weight training" of a "species' muscle." Through the arrival applied innovation(s) softening the challenges needed be overcome in order to survive, we unwittingly slow, if not stopss, the Darwinian crucible. It's function was not to provide us with the ability to endow ourselves with the best orgasms of reality we can find - that's just how we are apparently using it. Darwinian motif not only purifies over successive generations of trial and error ( where failures fade and successes breed), but through that challenge emerged newer sophistication and newly arriving aptitude(s). The decline in this latter aspect is symptomatically described by the subtle example of "losing the ability to nuance" Everything in nature ( I've come to find ...) is really analogical to some other aspect. Just like a single electron goes around a proton ... planets go around starts. These are not coincidences. The Universe is the greatest con artist in a way. The idea here is that we are distracted from seeing it; as nature merely cloaks the same model underneath colorful cloths, the pretty patterns actually blind us from seeing the reprisal of perhaps just a handful of original motifs. When we start thinking along these lines ... it really opens up interesting speculations. Like take the fact that 99% of all species that Earth has ever manifested, no longer exist. Perhaps our example here on earth is a reprisal of some yet to be determined fact that say ... 99% of all species the cosmos has ever created also no longer exist. An explanation for the "Fermian Paradox" might fall out of that ( the paradox goes: 'if the cosmos is teaming with intelligent life, or life at all, where is everybody'). Perhaps they've all simply evolved themselves right out their own evolution. Creepy. Aside from the obvious, that does not bode well for any species in existence right now ( lol ), that might just be an analog for what is out there in the cosmos. The universe is nothing more than a great cemetery. One species on Earth ( that we know of empirically ) has ever been capable of asking these questions, much less created technology capable of plumbing the incomprehensible scales of time and space in an attempt to answer the question as to whether we are alone in this thing. Hm? And, if they are passe', what %age of those species were even technologically advanced? But ...here's a thing: ultimately we are dealing with numbers so incomprehensibly large they escape and affective/effective meaning ...so therefore, in any pragmatic sense, were are looking into infinities. And by definition infinite probability insists that some other tech -advancing species like us ( more or less) must concurrently exist. If 1% of the "cosmic life" still survives the "99% gauntlet," that 1% is still an incomprehensibly large number. So this becomes as much a philosophy problem too.

HAHAHA ... and here it only took, ... 15 years of engagement?

that's how we all know we're reduxing 1978 now .. Thank you for your sacrifice, and congratulations! You are now a member. You cannot be a considered entry into the weather event seeking league of extraordinary hearts, until you've passed that mandatory hazing ritual by god where for some bizarre uncanny parallax of universal events... it is imperative you are away during the precision temporal bounds of the biggest ... whatever happened in the genre coveted as most dear. Just ask Jerry ... he'll explain it to you lol

Probably "as is" ..sure. But that "ridge" could end up being less of a full latitude R-wave signature, and more of a blocking node as we get closer - if that happens, we relax the field underneath. That's what happened in the early Feb days of 1978. I saw 06z GFS and remembered other guidance taking turns ( more or less...) and then it dawned on me - wait a sec. Low and behold, it's number 2 on the CPCs list ... umm... not shit. I'm just speculating here. This is not a forecast. I'm also not really trying to up the potency of the d-drip ( LOL ) either. It's just that that we're not making this shit up - CPCs has it there because it is true. Now... granted the analog has that on the 8th, which was after that storied event was already winding down, ... the 'idea' of it is certainly similar genetics.

Probably take 1/2 to may 2/3rds of that 06z Euro snow product there ... No qualms with 'where' ... but 10::1 seems a stretch in these thermals