Typhoon Tip

Yeah it's going for that NJ model low idea ... perhaps biased slightly N of typical. It's when a flat wave/wind max at mid levels crosses over the native instability along that part of the M/A coast - it helps is there some identifiable baroclinicity in the region when that takes place. The result is fast moving quick developer. They can sometimes evolve into major events if they are rigorous enough, but usually they're limited to moderate but headline-able snow amts. 6" -ish ...maybe 8. That's what that looks like. That model had that idea on the 12z yesterday. Weakened/too late on the 18z ... But then it comes back even more impressive looking on the 00z. Back to weak and too late on the 06z. Seems there's a data sampling constraint going on there. Not sure how the ICON's grid is populated - they may not "pay for" the full suite. We have to remember, Euro and GFS ...these models purchase their sounding data from foreign sources - or they used to. Maybe Brian or someone would know if that is still the case or if they've created some other coop program ...etc. But as far as the ICON's last 24 hours of runs, the old 12 on 18 off 00z on 06z off strikes me as the old days of data compliment shadowing. Why am spending so much time on this model ...

I dunno ... I think this qualifies pretty clearly as a 'saved by the bell' event. Look, every storm is going to shirk some zones. That's just the way it is. I remember back to some whopper storms of lore that shadowed CT. This time they fared better while the typical FIT Ma takes one for the team - so to speak. It's life. I'm really vastly more fascinated by the the crazy very late/short range wholesale model failure. It's actually encouraging in some respects, because that means there's still Dec 23 1997, or a Dec 9 2005 possible going the other way. - although I do think there's a bit of a weird model cinema reliance for mood control thing that's evolved over the years, which ironically ... that's tantamount to using an uncontrollable vector as a mood management control - hence the . That shouldn't be, but it is what it is.

I think you mean "willed it" haha

yeah I get it. just funnin'

LOL … after the last 24 hours of modeling peregrinations, you are only just now getting concerned ?

Part of this “bust “scenarios, also, I suspect attenuation caught up with us a little bit. I mean, it was pretty clear yesterday that the models were bullying the northern streaming and increasing the confluence suppression, and that was causing the south adjustment that seemed pretty clear. Southern Stream tending to weaken as we got closer slip below a threshold that allowed the northern stream - perhaps the model physics were overbearing and so on. But that appears to be an error now because it came back north - at least some degree. But in nowcast we’re not getting quite the dynamic intensity as earlier coverage dreamed up; such that not enough vertical mixing to scour out that shallow 34° white rain boundary layer going on down there. So it’s offsetting multifaceted errors in the handling of this damn thing.

umm Did we have a storm in December? I’m not sure I understand what this means lol but anyway… everyone should be able to start threads and let the merit of the content speak for itself. Someone should start a thread for the two minoring events at the end of the week. It’s entirely possible that somebody would get 3 inches from both those events with no melting between …spanning only 60 hours ? that becomes a 6 inch ordeal and is a significant enough.

Definitely a fringe job here. Aggregate types fluctuating. Sometimes uniform small ...back to mix of plump sizes with saw-dust sizes mixed together. Vis 1/3 mi, then 1 mi, then 1/2 mi ... back to 1 mi That behavior is typical of non-fully committed into the storm head but being grazed by it. Rad seems to confirm. A 10 min drive N of here is probably frustration flurries at best. 10 min drive S is up over 3" already. But ... all told this event is working out as 6-9" and counting down in CT/RI into interior SE Ma ( unfortunately west of the village of "Scottage" ) will be meaningful enough to justify this event coverage. Phew. what the f* right? Anyway, couple of clippers ...well, one clipper and one leading edge of an arctic outbreak ...whatever you call low later in the week.

S now. vis 1/3 mi uniform small to mid aggregates. 32

Fwiw - perfect aggregates here. Steady S- ... but, that is fine all things considered ... jesus. I was thinking sun dimly visible stuck at 34 F, with scud-strata off cold ocean skies would be this event's turnout here so a relative win perhaps. 32F

I'm not sure I agree there in general ... but if using this system? that would not be a very fair. The model came perhaps too far S? - the essence of having to do so was very necessary because the storm is S of what the consensus portrayed at this time yesterday. All the models are indictable on this. What we just saw in the run up to this is no model performing particularly well. The N camp was wrong until very late in the game - which is disturbing by present day standards of the technology ..etc. The S camp either was suppressed too much for days, or ... their late correction were too much - either way. Having said all that, even though storm influence-envelope appears to be verifying back ( maybe ) 1/3 or 1/2 the distance lost from that aggressive last minute correction S, yesterday ... the actual amount of snow may still be < 8" ? Radar and speed of movement doesn't look anything like those haughty totals from before, anyway. SO, there's some righteousness to that - What took place in the forecast arena before the storm arena, machine to man and back, was not good compared to what is verifying. I told everyone first thing in the morning yesterday that we'd probably have to now-cast this event - well... I think we all get credit for recognizing that there'd be something on the charts to monitor going back a long ways, but the details ? ...heh, this was poor.

Technically, it’s not a bust because we know it’s happening ahead of time? When I was young, a bust was always waking up in the morning the storm, and having it be not storming. yeah I guess relative to standards of todays modeling maybe. I dunno. I really think this requires some kind of analysis research to figure out what happened I mean this is a pretty serious indictment. I bet you the UKMET is right for the wrong reasons.

Have to go back to February 1987

There has been but ... let's see how this arriving -EPO distributes the temperature anomalies down stream over the continent - this is the deepest EPO mode this season ( as is projected ). It's gotten late and we're out of the solar min and into the solar transition season so it's racing a bit against the inevitable but there's time.

Folks will conflate/blame those two as interrelated and I'm not sure that's the case. Both situations are true ( looking), while the error for the 'minor' vs the total collapse likely coming from different handling. The stuff before was normal noise we see in these types of systems This thing today behaved like a proverbial demolition crew finished setting up the charges and brought Vegas casino down. Something changed in the data going into the models all at once

If this goes on to break this way ... the public trust issue needs damage control. The commoners have short memories - kind of like MLB ... you're only as good as your last at bat? But say even a partial move back, like a 50 mi back NW bringing even 4" to the Pike would do a lot for people's impressions because the vast majority of the public cares more about inconveniencing at all, as opposed to inches that have fallen. If they are disrupted by traffic jams and inconvenience while their is snow actually in the air, that's usually good enough

Mm there was lots of convective release down S though. I think the intrusive/mishandling of the N/stream being a subtly 'less' phasing influence vs more neg interference is pretty culpable from what I am seeing. That confluence relaxed yesterday and is subtly showing back up in the models.. may not be right...just sayn'

I think I see why the Euro is collapsing S over time ... The last 24 hrs have shown a clockwise rotation of the N/stream S/W relative to the position(s) of the S/stream system. This is a pull back on the amt of phasing, ...however subtle it was crucial before, and it is causing a tendency to weaken the S/stream due to more destructive vs constructive interference with the imposition the N/stream assertion in these latter runs. The other runs also show this slight reduction ( clockwise rotation evidence by toggling the intervals across successive runs) but for some reason, the foreign model type are more sensitive. ... or perhaps just more aggressive in doing so - again ... it may be too subtle to be very readily coherent. This is what it means to live by threading needle and dying by it... Feel pretty confident in the why - I don't have much confidence over whether this is the way reality ultimately plays out. It's almost like we're catching chaos with it's pants down/in the act -

There's a hidden upshot to a complete bust inside of 15 hours ... and that is knowing all those adolescent people turned away from schools, forcing enormous logistical hardships upon the NYC life tomorrow, would turn out to have been vacuously unnecessary - hahaha. Priceless

The Universe/'cosmological superstructure' has built in "kill switches" too - their called Fermian Paradox explanations. And the god-like brilliance of that design ...? the victims always trip that switch on their own. ha

Calm before the storm ... ...sneaky nape gem of a day going on out there. 45 F is an apparent MOS buster under intensifying mid Feb sun angle and almost dead calm clear air - super adiabatic very thin layer of warmth is nice for a lunch stroll. I didn't see this day being this way honesty and I tend to track these tedious nerd fest thermometer watch days at this time of year ha.. I thought we'd bottom out lower last night, and than have a bit more thickness of cirrus arrival to help cap cold.

Boom! yeah we'll see... I love NJ Model lows ( as I'm sure you've probably gathered by now... LOL ). I mean I like them because they do happen ( for one...) from time to time, but they are kind of the last frontier of blind events in modeling. It's hard to get a significant event to approach with out at least "something" betraying its potential, when/if it is at planetary scales ( telecon this and that...etc) But NJ modelers can happen ( again ) beneath the index coherency because their domain is smaller - they're just lost in the noise. They tend to only expose < 5 days ... you're thinking you got the general tapestry of your mid range worked out well enough but oops. Some of those 1980s November storms are really good examples of this. Dec 2005 was an NJ-like

really ? ..I'm not sure I feel so safe trying to "escape from NY" anymore

lighthearted and perfectly awesome trolling or not ( hehheh) ... those proportions are essentially correct when considering all. I mean ... much to the chagrin of our return social media folk, the climate zones are moving. Plus from an acclimation approach. even up here along Rt 2 ... NW Middlesex CO, if we go 1.5 or something years having only incurred piece of shit under performing winters, the first slush on the roads event and it's cars with headlights pointing backward against the direction down the slope below the breakdown lanes ... wiper blades still going furiously while the driver looks around slack-jawed, white-knuckling the steering with eyes bugging and a rapid heart beat. People 'forget' how to be winter aware very fast. Although, I don't know if a mere few inches would survive on the ground down town where is the nucleus of the urban heat island ... probably above freezing while hell's heating the pavement beneath 150 years of "city of dreams"

is there a graphic for dummies seasonal snow 'normals' product out there? yeah yeah one can search the web themselves but if anyone has that link off hand ... going into the internet and searching for that sort of thing is far less successful now that the internet has become something other than shared information, rather an enterprise for economic ambition and petty greed. it just makes one angry -