Typhoon Tip

Folks will conflate/blame those two as interrelated and I'm not sure that's the case. Both situations are true ( looking), while the error for the 'minor' vs the total collapse likely coming from different handling. The stuff before was normal noise we see in these types of systems This thing today behaved like a proverbial demolition crew finished setting up the charges and brought Vegas casino down. Something changed in the data going into the models all at once

If this goes on to break this way ... the public trust issue needs damage control. The commoners have short memories - kind of like MLB ... you're only as good as your last at bat? But say even a partial move back, like a 50 mi back NW bringing even 4" to the Pike would do a lot for people's impressions because the vast majority of the public cares more about inconveniencing at all, as opposed to inches that have fallen. If they are disrupted by traffic jams and inconvenience while their is snow actually in the air, that's usually good enough

Mm there was lots of convective release down S though. I think the intrusive/mishandling of the N/stream being a subtly 'less' phasing influence vs more neg interference is pretty culpable from what I am seeing. That confluence relaxed yesterday and is subtly showing back up in the models.. may not be right...just sayn'

I think I see why the Euro is collapsing S over time ... The last 24 hrs have shown a clockwise rotation of the N/stream S/W relative to the position(s) of the S/stream system. This is a pull back on the amt of phasing, ...however subtle it was crucial before, and it is causing a tendency to weaken the S/stream due to more destructive vs constructive interference with the imposition the N/stream assertion in these latter runs. The other runs also show this slight reduction ( clockwise rotation evidence by toggling the intervals across successive runs) but for some reason, the foreign model type are more sensitive. ... or perhaps just more aggressive in doing so - again ... it may be too subtle to be very readily coherent. This is what it means to live by threading needle and dying by it... Feel pretty confident in the why - I don't have much confidence over whether this is the way reality ultimately plays out. It's almost like we're catching chaos with it's pants down/in the act -

There's a hidden upshot to a complete bust inside of 15 hours ... and that is knowing all those adolescent people turned away from schools, forcing enormous logistical hardships upon the NYC life tomorrow, would turn out to have been vacuously unnecessary - hahaha. Priceless

The Universe/'cosmological superstructure' has built in "kill switches" too - their called Fermian Paradox explanations. And the god-like brilliance of that design ...? the victims always trip that switch on their own. ha

Calm before the storm ... ...sneaky nape gem of a day going on out there. 45 F is an apparent MOS buster under intensifying mid Feb sun angle and almost dead calm clear air - super adiabatic very thin layer of warmth is nice for a lunch stroll. I didn't see this day being this way honesty and I tend to track these tedious nerd fest thermometer watch days at this time of year ha.. I thought we'd bottom out lower last night, and than have a bit more thickness of cirrus arrival to help cap cold.

Boom! yeah we'll see... I love NJ Model lows ( as I'm sure you've probably gathered by now... LOL ). I mean I like them because they do happen ( for one...) from time to time, but they are kind of the last frontier of blind events in modeling. It's hard to get a significant event to approach with out at least "something" betraying its potential, when/if it is at planetary scales ( telecon this and that...etc) But NJ modelers can happen ( again ) beneath the index coherency because their domain is smaller - they're just lost in the noise. They tend to only expose < 5 days ... you're thinking you got the general tapestry of your mid range worked out well enough but oops. Some of those 1980s November storms are really good examples of this. Dec 2005 was an NJ-like

really ? ..I'm not sure I feel so safe trying to "escape from NY" anymore

lighthearted and perfectly awesome trolling or not ( hehheh) ... those proportions are essentially correct when considering all. I mean ... much to the chagrin of our return social media folk, the climate zones are moving. Plus from an acclimation approach. even up here along Rt 2 ... NW Middlesex CO, if we go 1.5 or something years having only incurred piece of shit under performing winters, the first slush on the roads event and it's cars with headlights pointing backward against the direction down the slope below the breakdown lanes ... wiper blades still going furiously while the driver looks around slack-jawed, white-knuckling the steering with eyes bugging and a rapid heart beat. People 'forget' how to be winter aware very fast. Although, I don't know if a mere few inches would survive on the ground down town where is the nucleus of the urban heat island ... probably above freezing while hell's heating the pavement beneath 150 years of "city of dreams"

is there a graphic for dummies seasonal snow 'normals' product out there? yeah yeah one can search the web themselves but if anyone has that link off hand ... going into the internet and searching for that sort of thing is far less successful now that the internet has become something other than shared information, rather an enterprise for economic ambition and petty greed. it just makes one angry -

Ha! I know you guys don't normally look at the FOUS ( it's an old habit of mine ...) but my god at the QPF at Logan comparing prior runs. since 12z yesterday's NAM ...every model cycle had been stubbornly putting out 2 intervals of QPF/liq equiv, and the numbers are always .5"-ish followed by .3"-ish ... totaling ~ .8". It just was not changing for that location. 12z just now? .27" + 1.04" + .22" hahaha my goodness

The last two run cycles of the operational GFS are carrying two of them, actually. 16th is being separated by the 18th by a general fast flow/higher volatility continent. These impulses are riding along where the ambient thickness gradient is getting rather steep down stream of the -EPO forcing.... That latter one for the 18.5th has kind of a sneaky NJ model look to it out of nowhere. Both these perturbations are below index coherency. I call those "sub-index" features... It just means events that take place because the synoptic restoring/forcing happens across domain spaces that are smaller so are 'hidden' in that sense. Teleconnectors are less useful by scale, and/or often lost entirely within the noise of ensemble distribution too. But if that trough sharpens a little more on the 18th one, that could easily become another fast movin' bigger player... That system between the 20th and 22nd is dubious but is also a new introduction along said gradient, too.

Probably this needs now-cast ... The 06z Euro doesn't really drop the mic on this for me at all. Seems as though some are acting like it should? Yes, it could certainly be right, but there's just as much plausibility for this to bump back NW on the next cycle(s) - all thse SE "giga" movements in the models don't appear to be coherently driven by large scale forcing. That tends to thinking that behavior is an artifact of model noise... Stakes are high-ish. Even a half back correction and 4-6" comes back to Rt 2 with 6-10" to the Pike ...etc.. Or should the ICON's overnight rendition prevail, that obviously implicates more. I consider the Euro as the southern goal post and the ICON the northern. You know, it would be wonderfully entertaining if the 06z ICON solution verified in lieu of the Euro ... It's sort of an underdog model. I like mixing things up a bit and rattling preconceptions. It's fun to bear witness. Lol I will say, that ICON's track and intensity have varied the least of all guidance between 18z yesterday, 0z last night and 06z this morning. It has moved around a little, but less than the other guidance. It's QPF distribution was mod/major, moderate, back to major respectively ...so some additional variability run-to-run with that ... But by and large its general cyclonic manifold has demoed the better continuity. The Euro moving S some 100 mi in < 3 days before go-time is atypical model performance ... If that verifies that would be just as interesting. And if so ... I'd suggest that attenuation phenomenon caught up with this... Perhaps at imperceptible scales, a weakening in the total scaffolding of the circulation within which this system transmits ...becomes less supportive, that could induce a southerly track correction in the finality. It's just that "imperceptible" ( or maybe "sneaky" is a better word) makes that less reliable. Anyway, we find ourselves in a situation where worse continuity is being rewarded with more confidence? That's also interesting -

We may also be dealing with a slight amount of that attenuation bullshit that always happens as we get right on top of these damn things. Still … Looking at the 18 Z model runs that probably should matter the most … diffs I see aren’t very germane

Rain south of the GW Bridge

There used to be an NHL hockey team called the Hartford Whalers. They are now the Carolina hurricanes… Maybe he should’ve said the “GFS hurricanes” heh

My theory is that the preference for shorter posts really began when these kinds of Internet social media became portably accessible … that’s just too hard to dink around with editing sentences and shit on one of these little interfaces especially when the algorithms that they employ they’re supposed to help you? Don’t they actually fight you

The funny thing is we still have 3 or 4 model cycles before this goes into now-cast ‘panic’ … that’s when the battle royalle between Librium and Xanax to determine what is the more effective management tool really gets going…

JD part of that’s my phone…

Right – I might be wrong, but I don’t see them as significant enough to worry or much “consternation”. I keep reading post like icon way south and I go look at it and it barely bounced. I mean it’s still a big blue inky dark mass of heavy snow for 4 to 6 hours between White Plains, New York and Bedford Massachusetts - doesn’t seem to change run to run to run to run to run. Bit of “over application of interpretation” It’s OK I get it though on the south. I mean whoever gets snow and doesn’t get snow might actually be a really tough and tight gradient to call down there because it could be 10 miles differentiating 9 inches from an inch of mix …everybody’s gonna flash freeze as soon as the wind backs that isn’t already frozen.

what “ghost poster” highlighted any blizzard on the 20th … I guess that must just be sarcasm but there’s been suggestion of ‘period of interest’ in the ens means. Ex, it took time for this 13th thing to emerge out of this positive PNA too. So long as we maintain that steep temperature gradient from north to south at Continental scale, the entire period is going to be volatile as baseline …so the background potential is going to be elevated. but I will enter that I don’t think we’re gonna have a protracted winter into March unless we see some index variations that are favorable for that pretty soon start to show up on the coherency horizon. … This is not 1956 climate and I know it’s hard for people to get their head around this, but warming and seasonal change is a spring loaded affair in this era of history. We have the benefit of a very strong and deep negative EPO but that ends around the 20th… And the PNA is modestly positive at that time but does tend to collapse negative afterwards. If we do not have a fresh insert of cold air, it will get warm pretty quickly ahead of schedule and probably faster than people think.

No, I think the people are focusing on details that are a little bit below expectation for what the guides are capable of doing - because they need to get the snow into their backyard very small movement seem very much bigger than they really are. If we step back and look at it from a bigger, synoptic overview? Theres a decent short duration impactor that’s higher confidence - the changes are not significant to warrant whether that’s going to be the case or not

Looking at the icon, and the GFS solutions over the past 36 hours I don’t really see their variations from run to run as being significant enough to warrant much consideration

Oh, I’m just confirming what other people are intimating. I don’t really have an opinion on that icon model fact I wasn’t really impressed with it last year. I heard it stated that it’s supposedly doing better this year, but I almost feel like people are making that narrative up to satisfy needing it to verify Whenever it has a deep blue black snow shield