Typhoon Tip

coils up a solid tc and has it moving along the archipelago to emerge near the bahamas toward the end of the run

91/70

i'm pretty resolute in the notion that we're being 'protected', so to speak, from experiencing what cc-attribuation is already capable of doing

impressive 12z ggem run

it can't be 90 at bdl

this looks like it could just as well be the climate footprint but fwiw cpc's september is 50-60% chances for above normal

this is the 12z Euro's depiction for 2pm tomorrow indicating the 'real' frontal position at that time placing all CT zones in contention for some impressive heat ind values - just playin' devil's advocate here

there's also home grown season

just to foot this meme, the mjo desk are negging the teleconnection through mid month for the mdr, too. wah wah wahhh. they do remind [however] that we're nearing climo peak and that may offset the signals but ... i'm not sure is see a pathway even there, without a better tw trafficking behavior. there's been a dearth of robust waves and the general counts have been down.

pretty cool 'white squall' event over southern lake michigan https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Michigan-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

culture's only gonna get more heat sensy in the future. was discussing the emergence of the 'synergistic heat' phenomenon, as a new paradigm that needs special attention or even categorically codified, with an nws director and she was in agreement ... indicating it's on the desks. that was a year ago this last June

omg rockford il is putting up a 97/79 this hour. that can't be right. altho some sites around n il are also tainting

mm i dunno bout that - could be conservative. it's currently 93/77 in kalamazoo mi and about that in south bend in there's 24-hr lag telecon with the lower lakes and sne i dunno, maybe it shunts, but it's mid 80s and mid 60s dp at a few sites now - it's not synoptically cooler around here tomorrow

Blue Hill/'Southern New England Weather Conference' is scheduled for October 26 down in Canton. Looks like the programming is interesting. ripped from the website, https://bluehill.org/join-blue-hill-observatory-for-the-2024-southern-new-england-weather-conference-on-october-26th/ “How the Weather Defines our History and Impacts the Future.” “Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning in Atmospheric Models” “NOAA’s “Climate Ready Workforce” Initiative” “Extreme Weather Events Playback” “Extreme Weather & the Symbiotic Relationship Between Weather and Climate” “Climate Change in New England—How Fast Are We Warming” “Winter 2024-2025 Seasonal Outlook” - presentation provided by Raymond; NSA reps will be onsite ... just fyi

yeah, i'm read/heard. probably should've wrote 'considering' instead of 'figuring'

yeah gotta admit for those seeking entertainment distractions by the weather arm of natural wonders, your wrestling with a paraplegic when looking over that modeling cinema. ooph every time the models start leaning warm departures ...they yaw the entire hemisphere into an early autumn. then, yaw back the other way. reality being something in between is about as uninspiring as a dynamic realm the size of a whole planet is physically capable of dulling our senses with. and every time those oscillations happen, the posts by the respective warm vs cool season enthusiasts hang their trophies from the other side's taint hairs. better things to do than spectator that nimroddery. but unless the tropics gin up something even fractionally as impressive as the social-media's heretofore bundemental skill's prediction for this season, this is why 2nd to april, the two times of the year can be quite the slog

pick a model ...they've been off and on showing at least a 'dent' in the itcz pressure layouts suggesting at least tw's in that range. some have even identified by the 2nd or 3rd i maintain, not sal, not aggregated shear stress ...not some fantasy sudden collapse of the tropical atlantic ssts ... the primary reason for the lack of development has been very spatial. it's the low motility of tws. hard to make babies with tail-less spermies

it appears that early august period of time, back in 2012, is whence something happened ... something took place, however unique/rare, that triggered an ensuing deeper nadir than fore or aft years. that outlier could be telling. figuring out precisely why might be useful. heh outlier to this sample size, for one. which may or may not be an important distinction. i don't think it is less important tho, personally. it happened once. it can happen again. trope, but unfortunately apropos. and if/when that happens, the next time it will have the melt-advantage of doing so after an aggregated acceleration from 2012 to 2025's worth of CC. ... well, it's rather intuitive to see where that goes. to spell it out, an abrupt 'fall off' - probably another 'leap year' that both surpasses 2012's scalar depth, but a greater delta wrt that local 10-year running average. not to be a monger of peril or anything, but the fact of reality is, we are experience and observing more and more synergistic events in the objective reality of earth - those that surpass leading indicators/predictions. we could just as well be seeing a suppression of absolute 'melt capacitance' by fortuitous circulation modes ... and just not be aware of it (despite everything that is known). when those 'lucky' offets break down or even reverse some future year, you get an over compensating rebound. seems pretty obvious

i've lamented at length ( no kidding! ) about a similar concern over the ancient pages of the thoughts on climate change thread ... this aerosol modulation [possibly .. but who are we kidding - ] directly contributing to a reduction in cloud materialization --> d(E budget ) has, to me, unwittingly provided a very good experimental opportunity. the results of which proves my point. and by extension, argues for why as a terraforming-capable species we need to be very careful in how it is we back away from the erstwhile forcing our activity has and continues to contribute. think alcoholic entering detox: the last thing the medical staff would ever do to a hopelessly addicted, liver cirrhotic, physiologically chemical dependent patient is abruptly cut off the patient's access to alcohol. the patient is obviously the metaphor here; not to be taken in the literal sense. the point being, there are background processes that unless all are known, we're flying blind into a vast realm of cause-and-effects that can if not likely will lead to abrupt, unwanted responses. some of these are non-linear, too. synergistic heat waves that over perform over leading guidance indicators, and the predictive assessments of humans that observe those indicators, is just one example of non-linear feed-backs causing a bigger response than anticipated. but longer terms ... life itself, in the seas and land, and how et al have been adapting ( or struggling to; some are not making it!) may not be able to 'turn off' their offsetting defenses to climate change. taking the world back to pre-industry too abruptly could have dire consequences. yet, that antiquated state of affairs, where human activity wasn't nearly so capable of playing blind god with the world, appears now to be an imperative. our father, who art in heaven ... bestowith upon us the rights to access the power of the cosmos. i'll tell you, from my op ed position ( a little rhetorical fun here...) when humanity sold its soul to technology 250 years ago, we unwittingly also slaved our dependency to technology as our savior - salvation from the results of technology. now that's an interesting predicament ... hints at a Fermi Paradox explanation ( for those privy to that stuff). as in, too few alien worlds got past this 'discovery of dad's gun' stage of their own evolution. in the contest of earth's greatest destructive forces to have ever afflicted, human innovation may turn out to be the prohibitive favorite. maybe the greatest enemy of evolution turns out to be evolution itself.

this whole event biased over the western edge of the watch area

my guess is not much prior to these last 24 hour trends but don't quote that

looks to me like warmth is trying to make a com back during sep 1 to 10 range. these things aren't often very coherent. have to be look for subtleties that by definition are not easily always seen.

what about it do you disagree with ? that's not below normal. that's a 50-60% chance of being below normal. which is what you basically just intimated -

i might uv read somewhere there's a neg correlation between the eastern pac and atl basin it would fit as the e pac has been ensemble lining lately

wouldn't have thunk so and it's obviously the nam and all that but the model's bringing biggest heat since late june in the fous grid hydrostats approaching or at 580 dm is impressive at any time of year 54000684918 -0195 102220 78272417 54000634818 -1096 142213 78282416 60000746366 -4391 112615 77282215 60000595315 07192 122314 80312518