Typhoon Tip

We got really lucky down here along rt 2 ... 71 in near full sun and very little wind in zip RH. It's like that utopia feel to the air.

There kind of is though ... maybe this is hard to dispute when all sources the compute the teleconnections have some variation that does not argue this from CPC, That's actually huge signal for warmth over continental mid latitudes. What's puzzling is neither the operational runs, nor their respective ensemble means are being very representative of that warm signal. I was half thinking the CPC needed to 'recalibrate' or something, but other sources are similar. Maybe the numerical field is sort of detecting the non-linear wave function/forcing ... which is inherently always masked by the linear - what we see. In other words, "lurking" ... perhaps in wait of the linear to come toward constructive interference.. Supposition, but you can kind of see that 'trying' to happen if one pays attention to the run to run cinema over time. Which I am crushingly nerdy enough to do LOL

Yup, exactly

So yeah ... GFS seems to have come around to the pivot S idea with the weekend synopsis' .... sparing us inundating cold rains and mist... but, the trade off isn't very balmy either.

Yeah, I saw you mention the EML around the time I posted that Wednesday looked interesting. I think that was 4 ...might have been 3 days ago. You may recall, I was telling you that there was possible warm intrusion into CT and that the helicity in the area look impressive while there was also a jet acceleration running by exit/entrance style N of the warm front. So the pieces were certainly there. The EML in concert with these synoptic advantages and away we go.

We were stuck in the BD air mass all throughout the event...right into the evening, and couldn't be liberated from it until the whole system passed off and gave it no choice but to mix out. When that warned cell came through around 4:30 pm to our S ( Ayer Ma), we had dead still air slate gray sky down pour with massive rain drops but no thunder. Didn't even hear any distant low decible, probably because the dense cool air. That's all we got from anything yesterday. It was all about where the warm front penetrated - along and S of that boundary had a party.

No offense to Ryan but some of us mentioned that Wednesday looked interesting 4 days ago ... Folks are getting used to disregarding some posters. boo hoo LOL it's all good.

'Cept that "back in the day" ... it didn't typically snow in May. Lol It's become a leitmotif since 2000 where these May excursions into a severely regressed/transient cold atmospheres. Whether they succeed in producing snow in air, the can... This was far less common prior to that 2000, though yes ... not unheard of, either.

Possible physical mechanism for the west Pacific warm pool and other consequences found https://phys.org/news/2024-05-north-pacific-due-china-aerosols.html This is important. For example, "break away" ridge nodes, containing climate anomalous warm atmospheric plumes, then meander down stream of these Rosby Wave sources and cause havoc. In a separate study cites the principle cause for the mega heat wave in the Pacific NW in June 2021 to be such a plume that migrated into a position over the Pac NW, stalled and then festered under solar maximum irradiance of that time of year. It also most likely means something for seasonal forecasting; the ENSO correlations have been less stable/coherent to the winter time patterns, for example. It's entirely intuitive that there is some negative interference, slow moving, at very large scaled mass fields ...etc.

Started to hint at brightening up here at this end of Rt 2 in N-NE Mass but with those anvils now capping that'll pretty much close the book on any meaningful sun sparing the day here. Different world in CT/Western MA ... pretty classic SNE butt bangin' day. Tomorrow might actually be decent. I'm wondering if the models are too stingy with blue slots and sky lights given the general synopsis. I could see it being partly sunny mid day. That would also goose the T's a little too. Course, ...that could cause some pancaking.

A historic severe day in SNE is unfolding before our very eyes... Very hard to elevate our region to this high level/criteria of concern... Mesoscale Discussion 0702 – Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

cells firing off around the western end of the Pike

fascinating to watch. just in the last 10 minutes, the lower scunge lurched N across N CT. WF may be on the move 79 in HFD ... 60 in BAF...

yeah, that's how New England works there's 2 slices to the atmospere that apparently decouple entirely at times. when they do ... you get sat and obs and conventional metrics not exposing the lowest layer below the 'floor' https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined that field of blasting cu is passing right over the closed circulation like there's nothing there.

Watching the hi res vis loop this hour and comparing that to surface obs through upstate NY, there seems 0 way to prevent the warm front from blasting in. yet, it won't move. ah yes. New England at it's physical finest

25 to 30 deg temp variance between W CT and NE MA

which means nothing if no one knows where 'here' is ? lol - I'm one to talk. But I do say my town. Are you "can'tconnectadick" ? It looks like warm sector intrusion by sat.

Clearing punching through CT now.. nearing HFD. Also western MA and VT starting to thin. It'll be interesting to see what we're left with when the last of this mid u/a debris passes off - what will it expose underneath. It may be the old SNE latex paint spill

mm maybe CT does better. There appears to be pretty significant clearing and cloud fractal change punching E out of central/SE NY. It may arrive over western zones. Probably cooked much N of the Pike ...certainly Rt 2 up here, though. I saw waveform llv striations on hi res vis loop just before the debris canopy from this morning's activity hid them, moving SW of PWM latitude. That's probably active BDoring. It would probably come through here unnoticed ...maybe some additional breeze, but limited effect on temperatures. No warm front is getting NE of that feature *if* it does in fact get this far S before the synoptic low ripples through. Interesting intersection of air mass types though.

Agreed the wf seems stagnant. By the way, I've also developed an anecdotal local correlation between morning rain/elevated convection on days where SNE does well. Like all ...it's not 1::1... Something I noticed over the seasons that followed the Derecho in 1987 that came roaring down the Mohawk Trail. The Monson tornado in 2011 ..there are others. There was a morning garble that seemed to imply a drab cold rain miserable day. But then the sky brightened by noon or 1pm sending T bursting under blue skylights. Boom

I haven't read any studies but I think - my own supposition - there might be a relationship with the Lake Michigan boundary layer interface with the land over that area. When there is a S humid flow, with a west wind aloft, you have a deep layer helicity issue anyway ... but, think about having the Lake boundary, there ... it might enhance/give a boost to the SRH below the mesos. Cooler, stable flow would back the llv wind slightly more westerly, with S winds immediately out ahead. The interface provides an easy curl Thing is... Flint Michigan had a F4 monster the day before the Worcester 1953 event. It was in fact the same synoptic package. But that's pretty far away from any such mechanism and unlikely related... There is a 24-hour Michigan correlation to Massachusetts specifically, btw ... Severe in southern Michigan tends to precede severe in SNE by 24s with fairly high coherence. Seems today we may miss though ... the clouds are not clearing behind our morning warm frontal ib burst. we'll see.

It's my home town when I was boy my family members still living around there are hearkening back to May 1980, when a (then) EF3 tornado carved a canyon right down Michigan Ave through the heart of the city. I was at the gym yesterday when on the television I caught sight of the tornado watch graphics. At the time, the radar had cluster of severe cells moving up out of NW Indiana. I went onto my phone and savvy rad sites saw two clear hooking super cells within that group - holy shit. One went right over the city, after ( thank goodness) it had already put down the finger of god, but spared 1980 by lifting the vortex into the meso just in time. My sister lives about a mile S of the city center and had golf ball hail do a solid number on prized shrubbery - she's very grateful. The other went SE of Kalamazoo County, up through Calhoun/Battle Creek - smaller city and home of Kellogg cereal to the East of the 'Zoo. No word on that one - it may have stayed entirely elevated. My initial take was that both would miss where my family members reside. I must admit to feeling a little irresponsible and very, very lucky, because that meso went right over the city. I'm hoping some vids will surface to confirm... Anyway, it was close, too close to have not phoned my sisters and father as someone that saw these super cells in the vicinity. I have some guilt - blessed that it's not confirmed! I remember 1999. I was working ... WSC I think it was called. They don't exist any more. Weather Services Corporation, I think it was. I saw the very first radar blip of the famed F5 tornado near Oklahoma City, when it was some 10s of miles upstream. Within 5 or so sweeps, it was already rotating. I remember just looking at it, and the path along which it was extrapolating, and one word occurred in the internal monologue: "Jesus" ...within an hour it was a 75 dbz core with rancid abortion coat hanger hook, replete with debris ball, going right over dense township labels on the map beneath the radar scope. Several of us Mets were by then watching the cinema from our seats that evening - crazy. It's tough... when you see and know ahead, and you think about the population that cannot see,lacking enough of any background to know ... probably just carrying on oblivious while the home denudation bomb blithely arrives. Mind you, this is prior to iPhones. In 1999, society was still vastly less individually informed. There were no loud pings on any devices, warning people of impending calamity like now.

I'm on the fence ... On one hand, the GFS rages on with an amplitude bias that surpasses all other amp bias' across all guidance, that kicks in around 96 hours. The flow is slowing ( hemisphere ) and I suspect that it's amplitude bias shifts <- ...etc. Lot of intuitive experience with this guidance. Plus, the GGEM is noted ( I mentioned that myself earlier) and would make sense. It has good continuity between 00z and 12z, where the GFS is all over the place. I just think the GFS trips over it's own amplitude fantasies. On the other hand, pure experience. New England's unique p.o.s. spring climate cannot be discounted. Pistol to the head I suspect the GGEM is closer to right with some caveats perhaps. One other aspect that's seasonally heading toward the back burner, but the teleonnectors are in aggregate a warm basis for the next 10 days to 2 week. At some point that may and probably should begin to present in the guidance.

cool

For the hawks nests maybe. I don't diminish the cold profile at this late in the year, but that's the eastern region of the Tug Hill, which has an elevation around 2,000 ... than again S Greens and up there near the Presidential Range in NH.