Typhoon Tip

oh shit... put that in the wrong thread. sorry bro - i'll move it

Heights over western N/A are the challenge. This situation leading and during the 20th needs that component to improve, otherwise this will be another enhanced modeling challenge over the week with both spatial-temporal aspect, and just spacial synoptic interference issues. It's a bit frustrating because from what I am seeing, the basal hemisphere is a little less compressed ( less is definitely better! ). You can see in the 00z 500 mb height cinema of all three, Euro/CMC/GFS, how the SPV fragment really tries to tuck into the S/stream, but because the flow geometry lacks that meridian restoring ( better ridge west --> constructive depth feedback in the east), the situation ends up stretched looking with the triggered cyclone escaping ENE in the CMC/GFS. The only real difference between the Euro and these misses is the Euro actually gets the thread through the needle's eye on 00z stab. But again ... the flow overall is -d(gradient), and so if a ridge were to materialize over the west, that whole downstream situation would be slower/more proficiency compared to these bottle rocket smear troughs of the last month

identical to here. 1.5" currently 32 on the button with limping -ZR ... accretion is inefficient. I'm waiting on a tuck, not to save this situation but... we have this deal on the 16th that may also offer a tuck opportunity. that system is like this one, only more strength and a little south. So sort of a bush test - unless the 16th does the CMC version in which case we CCB with sleet. zomb

Jesus one way or another you’re gonna get your drama dose out of this huh?

No, Kevin, the run is showing .6 to .7” accretion and not as much over lower elevations. That interpretation just means that there’s some members that have more but that also means there’s are members that have less. But people seem to lean on the idea of some members being more and thinking that it’s some kind of ominous implication, but that’s never been true.

Like I said to Kevin earlier … I don’t have an issue reaching low warning ice … Just the “big ice” d-drip rocks getting off oh boy oh boy should be toned down.

No one is getting 3” of liq equiv

The speed of the storm should keep the ice totals down… Doesn’t seem like people are listening to that. It seems like people are ignoring this statement. Even that product is barely warning ice. Needs to be a half inch if we make it we make it but we’re not talking about a crippling thing

It’ll be colder than the Euro

Completely out of line for this sub-forum to talk politics but this isn't really a political distinction. It's an observation of a stagnation and more apropos to say, deterioration, of both the bulk ethical/moral, as well as functional intelligence, at the scale of whole society. The populace has been exposed. The bulk of the people are literally inept to the point where false media reliance became substantive. And by that ...conned into elevating this kakistocrasy to realization. Neither a healthy sense of right and wrong, nor any 'math' existed enough in their minds to have prevented this. In a way, don't blame them. Blame the circumstantial multi-generational mollycoddling by the relative advantages of Industrialized living - there's no sense of morality to those that consider matters as entitlement and presumption of rights. There is a disconnect from understanding that was earned by sacrifices in the history of the world ... and not innately provided as some kind of given right. They may have hailed from a given political distinction, but no... this wasn't politics. It was idiocy run amok unchecked, and unbalanced, winning, purely by huge numbers that were made to be that way because of that reciprocating effect of diminishing intelligentsia. Remember this. History will remember this era as "The Great Dumbing" ... I interact with rural Massachusetts and Michigan in my own personal experiences; literally lack the objective filters to not be assuaged by the Machiavellian tactics, perpetrated as righteousness, by certain mass media organizations and their network of social media stratagem, which so affectingly reached what was really a socially engineered constituency.

Trend is of monster importance for the weekend... I've been saying all day that this was suspiciously too far W with all these canonical arguments that are valid for this scenario. If there's a trend to go SE at all, it is like "more" important than the typical trend - if that makes any sense ..

not sure "big" ... it would be marginal warning ice amts do to the fast speed of the system. It will also depend how heavy it comes down and just how cold it is too. It's a delicate thing that goes on in the thermal balancing between kinetic energy from falling heavy rain, vs dry DP feed, vs latent heat of phase change. There's a tug of war there. The best accretion rate I've ever seen was a 19 F moderate rain with almost not pellets, which is bizarre and rare for that cold of a temperature to be clean rain. Must have been pretty warm at cloud height... But being the dweeb that I am, I was studying the droplets as they impacted the car windows and there was pretty much zero loss. Every drop froze almost instantly. 6 hours later it was 33 with just plain drizzle and lots of dripping. Ice "storms" need to have the 3 aspects above in a stasis over a longer period... the bigger events are typically 24 hours with another 2 days of intermittent continuance.

that cold tuck was on the 12z run big time... It actually sloshed back enough to ZR for an additional .1 or .2 accretion in the interior NW too

this model has not deviate on that event now for 2 day's worth of cycles.

these dry NAM solutions ... i mean yeah the model generally isn't very intelligent, but just in principle it's like it dances around genius.

Yeah... I only "like" the 20th because as I've been pointing out using a lot of tl;dr's and some time wasting annotations ... the flow is relaxing while entering a +PNA. However, as I've also pointed out... this is not the first time this last 45+ days I've seen the guidance aggregate attempt this lessening compression - but what happens is an insidiously slow adding of gradient in time, such that we're not aware ...we just end up sped up to hell and back in the same quagmire. Back to earth re the 17th ... it's a little frustrating because there are canonical reasons to argue that track being farther S-E... Not even a ton, but just not so enraged like the Euro. I also noticed the 12z GFS is outright modeling a nasty tuck early Monday. I still think we have a lot of low level model error potential from this range, with that warm intrusion - all cynicism and snark aside.

mm no. Not in this context. That was regarding a single model run of the GFS, and I was discussing why those "kind" of looks shouldn't be tossed because of the broader correlations in play. If anything, below is a the primitive attempt to materialize that idea, so it offers support to it. The teleconnectors now, are in aggregate, completely abandoning any cold signaling. It is entirely fair to say that is a first, if perhaps primitive, in deterministic method to demonstrate the matter; within which, that is unfortunately what you don't like. Too bad. If you want to quibble with the notion that nothing is absolute - okay. That's true everywhere in nature at all times, at all scales. But one that is connected to objective reality understands the importance of probability, and how reality is constructed out of very high degrees of to anticipate - it's like one of the things that separates humans from other apes. We're all supposed to remove that native, gift of evolution and faculty of higher order intelligence, because you think the future cannot be presupposed. Not going to happen. EVER.

You talking about the 20th? -it hasn't liked that one yet ... at least not very much. Few members It's a caution flag. The pattern is still better for something like that oper. version to take place. Whether reality opts to actually doing so remains to be seen

No... that should actually read, "Mt Tolland State Asylum"

They held back the dissemination when they noticed a bug in the output that included too much frozen or freezing ptypes in SNE -

Yeah ... and it not just the AO. All the indexes are flagging a warm abrupt end to winter ... This is the agglomerate index mode on Mar 7: +AO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA Mmm, yeeeeah, that's a pretty quick end. I mean, maybe in another era, imagined or distantly in the past, the behaviors of the total atmosphere would argue for exceptions to the rule that implies - a big warm one. But nowadays ? Folks need to get real about where we are circumstantially at a global scale, and just how enabling this has been over the last 6 or so weeks Here, and Japan ... are the only two places on the entire planet, where civility reigns or doesn't, that has experienced a January that was "cold" relative to climate, and probably extending into these first 10 days of February. Where do folks think this winter would be without that very insular layout above? Experienced hobbyists and mets know why this was the case ( above) and it was related to the NE Pacific dominating the circulation mode during that 45+ days. Oscillating between -EPO cold loading into N/A and/or highly compressed low wave height +PNAs Should this index spread confirm, +AO/+EPO/+NAO/-PNA , out there, doing so in that world above, at a time of year deep into the solar transition, during a La NIna footprint that correlates to warmer than normal springs... during CC... anything else we can pile on? I mean, geez

bump.... just because the pattern relevancy is still in play. But the model complexion out there remains, so far, a lower large scale height gradient +PNA

Here comes Spring a week later ?

Know why the posting frequency drops immediately after a "credible" model solution that looks like that ? Eyes are rollin' back in heads as the needle slips from the finger tips and tumbles to the floor -

So ... relaxation sweeps over the local hemisphere aft of the 17th... "possibly" setting the stage for more small scale wave space interaction and a different kind of storm production.