Typhoon Tip

novie was seldom a winter month along the 42nd ... that changed in climate recency. i've lived as far west as kalamazoo mi, vs locally, my whole life. regardless of either end, novie only became a month that serves cryo events more recently decade(s). prior, it was always more like smelling like snow during cold rains ( ...none of this describes whatever your weather culture was up in higher terrain) anyway.. we're passing through the doorway into solar minimum. right on cue ( or is it queue ) the operataional model runs are painting -20C above the 70th parallel. there's cold air around, it's a matter of access. cpc is selling an ao mode relaxation, if not change, from the lofty index. this is apparently dragging the nao as well. these are not yet compelling because at this time of year, ...index forecasting is error prone, almost as stochastic as the daily model at times. we'll have to see. but the epo is negative at some sources ive seen out there between d10 and 2 weeks... putting these together, they're like the light over the horizon even if the winter day is not yet dawned in the models. for now, we enjoy ludicrous warmth followed by seasonal temperatures, before repeating

if we don't get rid of this cc-attributable higher water vapor content at 13 k feet gunk, global warming will cause today to be a cold bust at the sfc

it's interesting. i've given that question some thought in the past ... 'how can the difference between that and just ss stressing... etc' i mean obviously, fractal forcing would register change in sfc water, much, much faster. but, that would likely 'self correct' once and when the former fractal behavior dispersed. then, how much stressing has to happen before masking begins? ... how long after it ends does the correction take... ? goes on just as an intuitive sort of approach ... it would be a neat idea to test the basal oceanic thermal state, establishing what that is... once known, if removing the coupled ocean-atmospheric forcing, does the year 2020+ ocean settle back to a basal state that is warmer, or colder, than the 1990. that delta there might help in determining if there are concurrent physics in play ( which i personally believe there are, anyway ) that really create reality. perhaps of more importance... how much of each. i could see the amoc approaching a disaster scenario, but that approach is being masked by a vastly more readily observable fractal stressing patterns - literally as in, fractals giving the illusion of a structure but are by nature actually ephemeral. so ... it's all neatly explained and amoc isn't that big-o deal. yay! a circumstance that is super-naturally designed to hide the former, too. muah hahahaha LOL ... fits my sci-fi idea about a kind of 'gaia' back ground consciousness, one that is an emergent property of the entire planetary infinitum of multi-variate interacting processes ... giving rise to the synergistic phenomenon. emergence by interacting systems, via a complexity that is only in existence while interaction is occurring, seldom do that, right? like how a 100 billion nerve cells, creating trillions of dendritic connections formulate the ability to write these sentences ( however incomprehensible they are, aside haha) ... why can't the earth know it has cancer, class? well, you know ... human technology has devised a way - if perhaps ultimately proven primitive in the long run ... - to eradicate cancer cells: radiation therapy. hmm warming world is thermal radiation. see where this is kind of going in a "fun" imaginative way? i also like to refer to this as the 'toad in the pan' cleaning operation. the funny thing is, whether that fantasy notion of the gaia awareness is an agenda of an agency or not, slowly turning the oven dial all the way up to the clean end, at such a slow rate to allow human imagination to affectingly explain wy it's not happening ... still works! in the end, we've been scoured out. cancer cured.

i am interested in the cpc handling of the ao(nao) lately thats correlated with mjo space 8 which is also prevalent - that coupling presages -epo… or tends to. not sure if peppeRONI should only apply to enso, but all telecons anyway the rna may be in the way persistence

I’m pretty sure the topic of Scott’s point was “into December“ but sure

Mmm one could justly go ahead and say it’s highly unlikely though - to the extent of new hobby in the meantime when people caboose omissions with “ it doesn’t mean it can’t…” that smacks as psycho babble bargaining. are we really just as scared to accept as we are willing to admit?

It’s all about threshold… I’m pretty sure most papers say “nearing“ tipping points as their warning for the nearby future and they’re still giving it some decades…

... haha, you know what? we need it to happen. we need operation no-winter shock and awe to happen. it may be less potential, yet, along this curve of the cc trajectory, duh. but we need some sort of 'it can't happen,' yet +10 to 15 from d.c. to boston all 3 month, cherry bud swollen, shrubbery greenin' ... 7 days past the solstice type shock and awe. why? it would just be a fantastically entertaining sociological experiment, and subsequent observation, as we sit back and take in all the climate denialism 'explanations' lol given the "phenomenon characters" going on around the world, i don't think it is too far ( as some may think...) beyond the pail to see something like to take place. oh, it would be unlikely to recur the following year, but it's like the one event that is the shot across the bow freak season that is suggestive of a more permanent future. march, 2012, was +8 to +12 at a lot of climo sites in the ov to ne regions that early spring - perhaps 'standing wave' event etc... here we are, 12 years farther up the curve? go ahead, tell me we can't do it for 3. i dare ya. but we really have not had a freak eastern n/a mid latitude 'attribution' event that is very well comparable to all this shit going on around the world. we haven't. not so far as what we're seeing on media, elsewhere. and, i'd like to see the longevity event that isn't a hurricane, frankly. in a era whence populations have become dysphoric, for lack of better word, to information believability in general ... there's always some erosion of faith as to the seriousness when they see said medias. it seems to always be something for a distant shore. anyway, operation no winter shock and awe and then we get to watch denialism squirm. priceless

however the baseline quasi persistent/super synopsis of the hemisphere gets to that Can of who knows what it's SIPing, 500 mb distribution on whole aside, just in quadrature that would have to be a historically positive north atlantic oscillation mode to put it softly. in fact ... so much so that i question any likeliness for that to succeed. the problem with 'SIP's distribution is that it must be all but entirely discounting any negative phase state from ever happening. the nao is a very stochastic field, more so than any other index - few reasons for that.. but that variability therein would have to never be variable, if it is always positive. just sayn' that would be truly remarkable success. i don't doubt ( or support either way ) a +nao predominating season, it's the amount of that. if a 3-mon mean were 70% +, that would probably nearing the top positives in history; that CanSIPs would need it to be there or exceeding that to get a 3-mon mean that coherent. it'll be an interesting to monitor.

https://phys.org/news/2024-10-earth-climate-humanity-net-emissions.html ( https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1353/2024/ )

morning bus stop small talk ... 25 here, coldest so far this forwarding year. lots of still air leaf fall. i love that affect. the sun's morning beams shown sideways with leaves flitting down; they're the only movement or sound. we've had a couple of these cold shock mornings but they were only in 29. 25 is deep enough to really get the fluttering going. interesting that despite the patterns ... on going hemisphere being so warm this autumn we're getting any of this - well timed I suppose.

Until the index significantly change the GFS operational likely to keep flopping right back to warm looks …obliterating those. Probably gonna get periodic inserts of cold just good for upslope and maybe snowmaking but you’re gonna get warm blasted two or three days later and it won’t make it worth it If the index change then fine otherwise check back in after Thanksgiving giggity

you do realize half my intent there was a deep poke and stick wiggle into the hornet's nest muah hahaha

funny was thinkin about this during disk this morning. back in the 1980s or 90s ... a 58 on nov 2 was a huge lucky bonus yummy warm balm bliss day. climate fixing i guess

how come cc isn't factored in

that's crazy out there. i realize we were 78 to 80 nov 6-10 in 2020 but doing this with all that wind today ... probably doesn't mean 'more' per se but it's just wrong. i mean, windy in november is really not existentially consistent with heat. windy in novie = cold

12z euro attempting an atmospheric river genesis, but displaced a bit n of climo for that sort of hemisphere. suppose it makes sense... only so far to extend the hc n of normal before these base latitudes start also (gee) ending up n. anyway, pac rivers into the w coast typical of raging rna hard ons so we'll feel the heat of the balls back e, with another mid month warm stench probably if that happens

i know ... people 'get' to see the annihilation of winter in time to get a good night sleep instead of waking up thinking the new day might have brought a different reality in the models...

29.8 here a couple of times ... so a freeze but not really very impressively so. may have just been the dip temp anyway, not having spent much time in that range - unsure. 34 a few times though. agreed mid month. earlier telecon projections ( like those from last week and prior ) suggested the wpo may slope off ...if so, perhaps an indication that by mid novie we'd be seeing a pattern change coming around the bend but that doesn't seem to be as coherent anymore. seems we've established a pretty obvious precedence going back some 15 years that "correcting" at all, has been favoring warm side - without getting into causal debate. it just is what it is. if anything corrects colder, that's become the rarer circumstance. sometimes the greater synoptic construct looks like it corrects cooler, but the actual dailies seldom really reflect it. seeing it here... subtly offering reasons to see the se ridge bloom again/protract.

it would be nice if nature followed the intents and purposes of human designs like that. lol

It’s really just a shift tho, isn’t it ? doesn’t the sunrise also later for a couple weeks on

oh, we came up since then. it's see 64.

62 ... air smells like a warm sector finally.

the reason i was really asking is the seasonality of that. the nws conference last year ( not this one the other day ...) showcased a 48 to 55 f, sensibly cold air, low eof swarm down in se sections down here, and showed the neg tilt 500 mb and sfc cyclone pulled up west of orh while that was happening. can't recall exactly but i think the case study was an octo or novie event. maybe even dec. fascinating. seems autumn/early winter is a time to get that. i think there was some discussion/speculating about diabatic association to the near by ocean entrainment

actually ...the low turd has been wiped off this underwear of a day at this point. it's mid and high deck. temp up to 59