Iceagewhereartthou

It's good to be north of I-40! I40 - I85; here's a tease. Everybody else; sorry Charlie I honestly don't know how to feel about things going forward. I think there is a lot of potential, but I am concerned about the lack of true cold so far, not just around here, but nationwide. Despite the early signs of blocking we still don't seem to be able to get that in winter, and it's frustrating we're already playing the SSW card in hopes of getting some to come our way. The only thing that seems to be working out is the (endless) rainfall, but we need the cold. When I say we, I mean everybody outside of NC that got burried a couple of weeks ago and have gotten in on several small events already. I said before I fear this is going to be an I-40 /north or even state line/north winter, despite all the positive factors leading in, and that fear has not abated.

2.9 per NOAA. GSP was 4.3 Highest I can find in NC was 32 Mt Mitchell Highest in SC was 14 Caeser's Head

Despite the western upstate screwzone, I fully agree CAE has it worse. We get leftovers, but that's better than nothing.

We need to remember this next year. Forget NAO, PNA, EPO, Nino/Nina, MJO, Solar activity, Almanacs, etc,etc,etc. None of that matters a pinch. If your'e North of 85 you'll see some; if you ain't you won't! = North of 85 = South of 85

Yeah; I vaguely remember that conversation with Lookout, he knows only too well. He's absolutely correct; we have to have a stronger high, or a high that comes in sooner and locks in for CAD senarios, or the cold takes too long to get here and then loses out too quickly to the WAA. Those "cold in place" setups (Jan 88, Jan 2011) work well for us but those seem to only happen decades apart so we're not due for another 20 years or so...! Guess we'll have to settle for our penny and nickle (we don't get dime) events here.

With this one, you see not only the west/east cuttoff, but also the north/south downslopping cuttoff. It's amazing what a one thousand foot rise will do (Gville to Hendersonville for example). And you don't often see the same drastic cuttoff in the NC piedmont; sometimes, but not as often or pronounced.

And again, this is how it happens over and over in the upstate. This is the norm. Pretty frustrating.

Ok, thanks. I would be interested to see a more detailed history. Here is a link for the top ten snowfalls. https://www.weather.gov/cae/Snowfall_Total_Records_cor.html

Is there a good site showing a detailed history of CAE snowfall? Their NOAA site only has the monthly CF6 info for the past five years but I don't see anything beyond that or an overview of monthly historical snowfall. The GSP NOAA site has historical monthly snowfall charts for AVL, CLT, and GSP.

Looks like it didn't happen so 1764 days and counting.

Let me preface this by saying this would be true of anywhere, but I think it's very true of the upstate. If you haven't lived here, it's hard to appreciate just how strange the climate can be from county to county and town to town. There is something about the western upstate (west of Spartanburg) and NEGA that makes it really hard to get a good snowfall, despite having several ingredients you would normally consider good for snowfall relative to the rest of the upstate. The counties of Oconne, Pickens, and Greenville are closest to the mountains, slightly higher elevations, among the farthest North in the state, and many times the coldest in the state. The elevaton changes cause some oddities and many outlying areas are significanly colder at night that the urban areas, even though those are generally colder than other urban areas of the state. Being in Easley, I am generally 5-10 degrees colder than Greenville on clear nights; just tonight I left DT at 39 degrees and it was 31 when I arrived at my house 20 minutes later. But this isnt true when systems come through. Despite these apparent advantages, the western upstate routinely fares worse in winter storms than eastern, and sometimes even southern, upstate locales. The onyl systems that come to mind that we have fared better on were Jan 87, Jan 88, and Jan 2011; all of which were cold snowsorms where we werent waiting on cold or timing. We also did better on March 93 (and Jan 96), but that was simply a placement factor, below us was mix to rain. Most other big storms for our area resulted in either a min for the wetsern upstate or a complete skip. This storm, last Dec storm, Jan last year, March 2017, Feb 2014, Feb 2004 (2 feet eastern upstate flurries western) 2003 (CLT 10 inches, western upstate 2-3), Jan 2000 (aka Carolina Crusher - flurries here), the list goes on and on, from year to year. We're too far north for southern sliders (1973, 1989, last year CHS coastal snow), too far West for coastal snows and Noreaters (generally), not high enough for Miller B and apps runners, too far west for CAD events without a crazy warm nose, too far east for TN valley snows that get MS/AL/GA/TN/NC. We typically get the most rainfall throughout the year due to mtn proximity, but suffer dryslots in winter setups. Were typically colder/cooler 95% of the time but suffer warmnoses worse than anybody. Look at a list of largest snowfalls in SC history and Greenville/Pickens/Oconee cities are behind. Rock Hill, Florence, Columbia, Spartanburg, Gaffney have all had larger snowfalls, including many smaller towns across the state. Heck, even MYB had like 12-14 form the 89 storm. Here are a couple reasons why I think all this is true. We have taller mtns on the NNE, N, NW, W, and even WWS. This creates a lower lying pocket ( though still higher than the rest of the upstate) that makes it very difficult for CAD and CAA to penetrate. CAA coming over the mtns either results in downslope warming, or skips over us to other points in the upstate outside the eddy area the mtns create (similar to the eddy effect in a river except here the air skips over the immediate lee, cooling areas further away from the pocket). In CAD situations lke this last one; the cold takes too long to work this far SW (or never does) but is colder in eastern upstate, and for longer, so they get more snow. In Miller Bs we have too much downslope warming and the darn warmnose, that is much worse here than N,NE, or East of us. We also are in the perfect min area for many coastal transfer setups- we lose the energy from the original low as it approaches and the coastal low takes over. So we don't get as much as areas further west because of the loss of energy, but then we miss out on the energy from the new coastal low as well, that places farther east get in on. And within the western upstate are areas that perform even worse realtive to the rest of it; with Clemson being one of them. This is a great place to live for many reasons, but it is an incredibly frustrating place to live for winter weather lovers, even compared to the rest of the upstate, let alone NC.

Could this be the night to break CAE's streak of non measurable snowfall? 1763 days since Feb 12, 2014; 2.1 inches.

Wow, checked radar again and that's it for me. It went from east to south on a dime. Some one could definitely score later tonight...won't be us though. This just wasn't our storm, but hopefully we'll get something a little better later on.

35 now, but it's sagging south pretty quick, look a like it will be gone within the hour. Thought it was going to move more east but...

Yeah, not going to happen. Not sure about column temps but surface is 37 here. Looks like a pretty big batch so could be a few inches if all snow, but I think all its gonna do is wash away the little remaining snow.

I'd love to have to find that out for myself. The biggest snow I've had IMBY since Storm of the Century in 93 was 8 inches from 1/2011, and that was awesome. I think this winter will go much like 09/10 and its going to be a blockbuster for NC, heck, it already has been. I wouldn't be surprised if many NC locations set seasonal records this year and it already has a great start. I think for the rest of us this storm epitomized how it will be. Upstate and NEGA will get some sloppy seconds, but will never get to dine at the big table. I'm sure there will be some cutters that will be good for the TN/ MS/AL crew, and there may be another coastal like last year, but it doesn't seem there is any setup that can deliver big for the ATL - GSP -CAE crowd; or if there are they belong to yesteryear.

Maybe we'll have to move to Wake county in order to see a good snowfall!

now that you mention it...

Wow, beautiful! So THAT'S what a big snow looks like!

Yep. NWGA and coastal areas got it big last year. NC gets it big every year. Need an ATL to GSP to FLO to CAE big dog.

I feel your pain...

After a low of 30, had a high of 35. Had dropped back down to 33 but now back to 34. Waiting on more rain!

For all the same peeps who got it this time, AND will get more tonight... I think us GA and SC people see how this winter's going to go...

Looking at models it looks like the upstate will miss out on any snow from the upper level low tonight, except possible extreme eastern or southeastern upstate. Some even showing it to our south all the way to the Midlands. While I won't begrudge the Midlands any snow, it would have been nice for some NEGA /western upstaters to get in on that since the warm nose from Hades visited us last night.

Yeah way too much sleet for us. 2.5 on the table, 3 in the yard here. It's beautiful and happy to get it. It would just be nice for NEGA /Western upstate to be able to experience a double digit snowfall, just once. It's certainly nice to see our small events each year, but it's also hard to see so many people get the big nice ones and it never be US. Congrats to everyone in both carolinas who scored big; I'm jealous of all your 8-16 inch totals!!!