Iceagewhereartthou

Here's everyone on the board that gets left out come zero hour next weekend

Not to mention the mountains tend to set the trend for snow each year, and the storm trends tend to trend well for those folks!

GFS would absolutely suck for upstate, especially western upstate, but would be much more climatologically likely. Most of NC gets good snowfall while western upstate gets almost nothing, with eastern upstate getting in on the cold before moisture ends. That's about par for the course.

That's about as bullish as GSP ever gets, and I don't ever remember that much confidence 6-7 days out. That surprises me at this stage.

I also agree with that. And the infamous NW trend, though not universal, is climo, so I think most want to see that suppression continue for the next couple days at least. It's going to be a crazy week of watching to say the least, with some mega mood swings in this thread!

That almost seems like an impossible scenario anymore. I guess we did pretty well with Jan 11 storm, but of course our standard is Jan 88. While those totals are pure fantasy, it would be awesome to see a double digit snowfall again, it's been decades for us! Defintiely need this Miller A scenario to happen. Unfortunately, we have to temper ourselves with this being so far out. What are the odds the setup we're seeing today (almost perfect for us) actually verifies? Extremely small I would think. Nevertheless, pretty cool to see so many big dog solutions from various models.

Wow, one clown map is bigger than the next! This one will either go down in antiquity or in infamy... but which will it be? I have dreams of seeing one storm like that in my lifetime... just once. That aside, it's hard not to get excited about the runs over the past 24 hours.

That IS weird, slams into MYB at hour 132 then tracks over FLO to CLT to AVL to TYS. Almost a hint of Diana you guys were just talking about with the loop/double cross!

It is a hard call and really is a no win situation. It is looking more and more like SC will be spared the worse, but based on the forecasts and possibility of a SC landfall you kinda have to male the call, and make it far enough ahead of time for people to plan and act. If it indeed keeps trending NE and farther away, there will be LOTS of frustrated people complaining about "having to evacuate for no reason", and "the forecasters are never right", etc, but of course the same people would be yelling the loudest if it actually hit and there had been no prep. Those people think weather is actually predictable and that forecasters should truly KNOW what it's going to do. He probably could have waited another 24 hours, but is obviously trying to err on the side of caution.

I would think so too, the NE trend with canes is like the NW trend with winter systems, not quite a guarantee but pretty close. With 3 days still to go and a strengthening system I still would think a scrape to OTS is still in the cards, or even a delmarva hit.

Are you guys thinking the ridge is stronger than modeled? It seems 98% of these go farther North and East in the days leading up to a potential landfall. A few exceptions, but few and far between. Already the forecast track cone has shifted significantly since yesterday morning, from as far south as Jacksonville Fl to about Hilton Head now, with the center over Wilmington. I'm thinking this will probably be another Outer Banks scraper or even near miss OTS (hopefully).

I truly am happy for the NC folks but this has been one of the most painful winters for snow ever in SC! On the edge of two big events squeezed out a couple inches each for the upstate but the only real snow in SC this year hit the coast. Everything else has been just above the state line and NC just keeps getting it, with even NEGA having done way better. Even though I expect the short end here in the upstate, this has been a hard one to take. Everything has overperformed... for everyone else. Watching NC this winter makes me feel like I'm back in high school, watching all the other guys get all the dates...

GSP to CLT to CAE triangle really got the shaft this year. Just about everybody else got their average or way above (CHS, coastal areas, even gulf coast). CAE is really in a drought and I feel for those guys. By the time they get their next shot it will be going on 5 years since their last measurable snowfall. The upstate has really gotten the short end though last few years as well.

Just becoming too hard to get snow in the upstate, let alone in March. Is there even a single model run showing any blue at all into the upstate? On every map I've seen the SC border snow wall is in full force. Heck, it's already happened this week, snow showers all the way to the border on Wed, then nothing.

Total vent here but this weather has put me in a rather foul mood. Cleaning out the garage today and having to put up with sweatiness, bugs, pollen, humidity, and seeing everything thing come out and grow and thinking about all the yard work is just grotesque. If it was May or even April I could accept it but this is beyond ridiculous. Then seeing all my neighbors cutting grass, doing yard work, and walking their dogs in shorts whilst talking about how much they like is just insult to injury. THIS IS MISERABLE! I can't believe this has happened two Februarys in a row. Man, people west of the Mississippi are so freaking lucky.

GSP calling for mid 70s Thursday and Friday with a low of 60 sandwiched in between! That's a page from last February. Then we get back almost to normal for another rainy weekend before going back to upper 60s again. Winter in this area is soooo stinkin pathetic!

Yep. And there are countless examples. Christmas 2010, we have warm surface temps, snows all day but I got like an inch and a half. Ramps up big east of here, Gaffney got like 10 inches. I grew up in Dacusville and they seem to do better for whatever reason, but still..Definitely a strange little hole over here, wish it would go away. I lived in Taylors for a few years and def did better over there, and we aren't talking about great winters either.

As frustrating as the upstate is, CAE really does have a tough time. I calculated that back in the Dec storm, and it has indeed been almost 4 years w/o measurable snow, that's INCREDIBLE. Every now and then, cola gets a really nice one, but gets blanked a heck of a lot. Not sure why it's so difficult there.

What is your exact location? I don't think people around here understand just how difficult it is for the western upstate to get over about 5 inches. They see and hear about the upstate getting snow, which we often do in a GA/NC/SC winter system (but it's usually small time), or they hear about Landrum or Gaffney and think well the "upstate " got a lot, but that's eastern. IMBY, I can think of only 2, 5+ inch snows since the 96 Blizzard; 8 inches from 1/2011, and 5.5 from 1/2016 storm. Just think how many on the board have seen 5+ just this winter. Think how many storms since 96 blizzard have delivered 5+ EAST of GSP in the upstate; MOST systems have yielded that total somewhere in Eastern upstate, but never approached in western. And don't even try to count the number of times areas a few miles north above 2000 ft have seen 5+; dozens? Scores? There is always a monkey wrench; downslopping, warm bubble, dry slot, not in prime lee regeneration area, last to feel frontal cold, gets precip from west just as it dies in situations where a coastal low forms, but too far west to benefit from that coastal low, ULLs push away from mtns, etc, etc. Eastern upstate is just a little bit better in all those situations. This storm was a perfect illustration of many of those. Amazing to see all the 4-6in totals from Sptbg eastward and look at all the sub one inch totals from clemson westward. But sadly, that is the norm. The only way we can really get a big one is in a true cold over running event (1/88, 1/2011), and those are just extremely rare. Despite the beauty of Pickens and Oconne counties, it's almost enough to make snow lovers want to move.

They're never excited either

Despite better trends for some, not helping mby. Maybe went from a trace to a dusting or half inch in Pickens county. Seriously? Doesn't matter which way it trends or what kind of a set up we have, Pickens, Oconee cannot buy a good snow. Now I may miss b/c I'm north of 85, and that happens much more than people around here remember.

I really try to stay positive, especially with the cold we've had, and I would have almost put money on it that I would have seen at least an inch since Christmas, but nothing. And I swear, it doesn't feel like there is any scenario or set up that could possibly bring more than a dusting to the upstate ever again! What the heck is going on, how has the upstate ever gotten snow before? We've missed every way possible since Christmas. Burrel, or Wow, or someone, help me off the ledge for the upstate, I'm about to declare we'll never see snow again as long as the world lasts!

Surprising but a pipe dream at this point. 1. It will look NOTHING like this next week. 2. Don't believe EURO clown maps, haven't you been burned before? 3. Even verbatim, it's basically a western upstate skip...AGAIN!

Not this again Bric ... er.. I mean Mack! #1; your statement is only true if you don't like cold and dry, which I do (and others). I'll take it any day over 70 in summer! So you need to add "IMO" after that! #2; It will never snow if it's 70 degrees. ( So by your wish, it will never snow again!) #3; IT WILL NEVER SNOW IF IT'S 70 DEGREES!!!!!!!

Cause this time of year it never gets warm enough to rain...