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Iceagewhereartthou

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Everything posted by Iceagewhereartthou

  1. Iceagewhereartthou
    24 inch line coming down to HWY 11 in SC there. Burrell, Oconeeman, and me with 20, Lookout getting buried, Mack getting the shaft with 16... man, I LOVE this model!
  2. Iceagewhereartthou
    That's the most realistic map I've seen yet. I-40 north with best chance, Wake gets some fun, upstate gets blanked. Does Vegas take weather bets?
  3. Iceagewhereartthou
    Buy both, keep your receipts, take the unused one back
  4. Iceagewhereartthou
    That bubble is absolutely intolerable and always shows up. It's basically a product of that area being surrounded; NE, N, NW, and W of higher mtns, PLUS, being so far west of the CAD highs, it literally takes forever to cool off. It usually results in a ton more mixing or even just rain. It's maddening to be in that and get next to nothing while everyone around can get a lot. Did you notice the snow home over Lake Jocassee on the clown map? 2-4 while just a few miles east in the 20+! Hopefully the cold press will be stronger and close that gap up!
  5. Iceagewhereartthou
    Yeah, those counties and western upstate and NEGA seem to always have heartbreak with these CAD setups. By the time the cold gets this far SW the precip has passed and everybody to our north and east gets the big snows. It's really hard to take in the Ellicott rock area.
  6. Iceagewhereartthou
    Cool graphic, thanks for posting. It's retreating pretty fast until that last frame, then appears to retrograde a bit. I would be interested to see the frames for Sat and Sun when they come out. The wetbulbs on this map are colder than the dps on the other map for Sat. That can only happen if the dps really plummet on Sat, or the wetbulbs really shoot up. Wetbulbs can't be colder than dps.
  7. Iceagewhereartthou
    Yes. What the upstate and NEGA needs is for those upper teens in WNC to bleed our way. With dps in the mid to upper 20s our wetbulbs would likely be above freezing, so we'd get just cold rain or a melting slop that never accumulates.
  8. Iceagewhereartthou
    This matches up almost exactly like the snowfall output maps we're seeing from the GFS and Euro right now. This map doesn't bring the lower DP s into the upstate or SC, and the snowfall maps (op clown maps, not ensemble means) are almost an exact match, with any real accums stopping at the boarder. Remember, in the SE (especially outside elevation) cold is ALWAYS the first consideration. Needs these dews in the teens to come further south and west for any real chance for most.
  9. Iceagewhereartthou
    Thanks. Way down for the upstate unfortunately, moved north.
  10. Iceagewhereartthou
    Map?
  11. Iceagewhereartthou
    You could come to my house, I only get a trace of ice and an inch and a half of snow
  12. Iceagewhereartthou
    30-36 hours of pink in the upstate; is that sleet or zr? Anyone have the zr map from this run?
  13. Iceagewhereartthou
    Boy a cruel cuttoff for us Oconee, Pickens, Greenville county peeps if that verifies! Unfortunately, that happens often.
  14. Iceagewhereartthou
    HP and LP in good tandem at 108, but LP looks like is getting to amped to me, closes off then. HP at 1040.
  15. Iceagewhereartthou
    S/w goes from being closed at 72 to almost being sheared out at 90, then looks like it really flares up around Dallas at 102.
  16. Iceagewhereartthou
    I believe it's also further north, didn't the 18z come ashore in mid Baja?
  17. Iceagewhereartthou
    That's crazy honestly, I can't remember seeing means like that at this lead before. Almost all the panels show significant snowfall, although I am sure most of that, at least for CLT and GSP would be mix. Crazier still, is how the op runs have basically left GSP with all rain; how can the op's and ensembles be so different? Something for everyone to keep in mind, in a setup like this with very marginal cold, timing and placement are the whole show; even more than usual when we have better cold air sources. Speed up or slow down one player, 50 miles here or there for placement, or a couple mbs of pressure up or down will change the model outputs tremendously; even up till go time. I certainly wouldn't expect it, but it's very possible a nick here or tuck there could change our output back to a colder suppressed look; it wouldn't take a whole lot. Too early to be jumping ship, even though tempered expectations are wise.
  18. Iceagewhereartthou
    High gets pushed out after 126, way too warm, even mtns mostly a mix. Terrible run there!
  19. Iceagewhereartthou
    Looks good, just a stronger NE high!
  20. Iceagewhereartthou
    Well what we're pretty sure of: - An LP will bring significant amount of QPF into the SE next weekend - There are several key ingredients in play for a winter storm somewhere in our area > S/W, HP somewhere to our north, early season cold - It's climo for some areas such as the high country of NC and VA, and early climo for adjacent areas. There are some other factors that appear to be going in our direction at this time, such as the relatively weak baja low, a bit of a 50/50 low, and possibility of 2 highs; one in the MW and one in the NE. And the fact that most models have been showing something wintry for a few days now. Some things to consider: The Baja to Jax track of a 1008ish LP with a 1035-1040 HP over Pen/NY (and another high over MN) would give most of the board the best chance for a decent storm (with timing considerations). Many of the model runs we have seen have shown deviations of that and even slight changes would yield nice results for some folks, while sticking it to others. This looks to be a high QPF scenario (we're usually trying to scrape a few tenths) with many areas possibly receiving 1-3 inches of it! With high QPF will come a HUGE bust factor based on the temp profile. Cold = big snow (or mix); not cold =big rain (big disappointment). Someone is likely to get a very nice dump out of this, but there will be big gradients in short distances and elevation changes, and lots of heartbreak. As always, NC Mtns and SW VA will have the best chances, and are in great shape for a nice storm. Next would be NC piedmont, Upstate, and NEGA, though the odds of serious mixing increase considerably even if those areas are fortunate. IF we get the trends we need, more folks will have a chance. Right now both the GFS and Euro Ensembles are pretty close (even though the OP runs are wildly different) which I think is pretty unuual at this point. Hope for the best but expect cold rain and we'll see what happens!
  21. Iceagewhereartthou
    I've thought about that one also and that's not good for my neck. I was in Taylor's and saw a few sleet pellets mixed in with the cold rain. Caesars Head got close to a foot of snow- had to go up above about 2500 ft. Lower levels just a hair too warm. A tough one to take in the upstate, similar to last year in that regard. This one has that type of solution written all over it unless that cold press is really strong. Pulling for suppression as long as possible, but it would be against the grain around the upstate.
  22. Iceagewhereartthou
    Looks like FV3 is the only model that came in colder and further south. All others came further north and a little warmer. We'll have to watch today's runs to see if that continues. If so, that would likely indicate our NW trend, which this early, would be bad for non NC peeps. My guess is that is exactly what will happen as we approach game time; low will become more amped and/or cold press is less and this is an I77/40 West and elevation storm. That's climo anyway. Hopefully we see a return to the more southern and colder solution on runs today or tomorrow, but it's hard to get that once we start losing it.
  23. Iceagewhereartthou
    I'd like to see that low 100 miles to the south and the high 100 miles SW at about 1038 or 1040.
  24. Iceagewhereartthou
    Here's everyone on the board that gets left out come zero hour next weekend
  25. Iceagewhereartthou
    Not to mention the mountains tend to set the trend for snow each year, and the storm trends tend to trend well for those folks!
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