Iceagewhereartthou

What we all were hoping for back in the Fall with the most epic winter predictions of all time: Now that reality has hit:

Wow, that's early! Looks like its April. Made it down to 27 this am, and had just enough cold to keep that from happening here. Boy that tree is in full bloom though, not just budding! BTW, just checked out NOAA; there's at least a WWA out for EVERY southeastern state except two; Florida and SC. Kind of expected in FL but how pathetic is SC?

I really like Chris Justus, but his facebook says "coldest air in several years" coming after the front, then the wyff outlook shows highs in mid 40s, lows in 20s. Not only did he forget about last Jan, but that's not even the coldest of this wimpy winter.

Honestly, with the semi-permenant southeast ridge and totally absent wintertime -NAO over the past decade, it seems to be becoming the norm. Frustrating as heck, but unless and we can get some larger patterns to realign in our favor this will continue. I'm afraid this is the new normal. With the mountains already making it difficult, much of SC may see less snow than Mobile and FL panhandle going forward. If CAE can't sneak something out in Feb, they'll be looking at a six year drought by the time next winter rolls around. Even GSP has seen only two accumulating snows in Feb and March COMBINED since 2015, and they were .4 and .5 inches. Snow in SC is quickly becoming a thing of the past.

If it's true that we'll have to punt till mid Feb in hopes of getting a better pattern after that time, most south of I-40 are probably about done for this winter. I won't throw the towel until there's nothing cooking about the third week of Feb, but I'm getting my towel ready. Of course, even the upstate has had some big snows even mid to late March, but let's be honest, this isn't the 70s or 80s anymore. March is pretty much a Spring month for us. Even the good March NC had a couple years ago did nothing for SC. Unless we get a quick reload to a better pattern (than we've had since early Dec) it's not going to be pretty. On the other hand, as my dad has always said, "you never can tell about fishing and the weather!"

Well here's two more: Mondays system we get nothing due to drying from downsloping winds. Wednesday we'll see a couple tenths of QPF but the mountains will delay the cold so it will be all rain. I'm sure the final shot, next Fri/Sat we'll be too far north, or we'll get the perfect track with no cold or...

I LOVE the upstate!

We're living in the WRONG place my friend, we can't even get fantasy snow right now!

How about the "In Your Dreams" model!

If we could just get that low to off the coast of Brunswick GA and bomb there...

DOn't fall for the Euro clown maps! I have before - they're about as useful as a DGEX (ahem, Feb 2014...)

Unbelievable isn't it?

Sorry it's already 2:54! Couldn't resist...

Lol; 11 inches for Orangeburg, 1 for western upstate! This will change 100 times of course, but you just have to laugh...

All relative and personal perception I guess, I feel like I'm still waiting on the cold - it can arrive anytime now... 70 can (and will) happen anytime b/w April and October, but give me the cold right now! It's been a pretty wimpy winter so far, too many fantasy arctic outbreaks - all talk and no action from the models! For me, I'll take cold even if its dry. Rather have snow of course, but rather have cold and dry than warm ALL DAY ANY DAY!

Starting to get frustrated here in the upstate. There are 3 upcoming systems and I can't find a single snowfall map that projects anything more than a few flurries here (with most being a complete blank). There looks to be a great chance of at least one accum snow west of the Apps (and maybe as far down as the gulf coast), and the I-40 corridor through NC has lots of support for something, and even the coastal carolina areas have a shot next week. But the NEGA and upstate (heck, the whole state of SC) just cannot get any love from the models. I keep thinking we'll have a couple more shots before the end of Feb, and we still may, but each new threat leaves us out. Were going to run out of punting room here pretty soon.

Exactly, and whole lot more area above 5000. I actually accidentally wrapped this into my previous post, but the area in question is negatively affected in two ways by those same mountains. In this set up it's the drying of moisture. In many cases it's the blocking of cold air and the warming due to the winds. In either case, the same area is often left with a brown yard. Beyond that though, it still looks like there'll be a at least a couple chances in the next couple weeks, really all we can ask for.

For all the Athens to CLT folks (the newer guys anyway) this graphic is a perfect depiction of what happens when our precip has to come over the mountains. Imagine drawing a line from Raleigh to Macon- all things being equal, you would expect that snow line to be pretty consistent. Instead you have a 200 x 100 mile area with absolutely nothing (and especially the western upstate bubble ) due to the drying effects of down slopping winds off the mtns. Unless the cold is in place before the precipitation, this is how it will go down. It's easy to understand the frustration for people in the Athens to GSP to CLT line (and to a lesser extent the Midlands) who see this over and over again.

Pretty crazy lookout, I had no idea it was that warm there today. I just hit 46 and that's my high for the day. I just checked some other locales and its currently 61 at CLT and 64 at CAE. Power of the wedge can be pretty impressive.

Per radar, rain just now entering Georgia. Doesn't matter now, temp and dps above freezing. This slow mover is 24 hours too late. Even that would have just been ice.

I don't believe that- you know you want some snow too! Having said that, couldn't you have played golf the past six weeks (rain aside)? IMO, fall and winter are the best times to play golf. Summer is beyond too hot and humid.

Completely agree; that's why I hated having such marginal cold along the I-85 corridor. Some called it "bonus" as it was a little outside of climo, but I saw it as a huge monkey wrench in what might be our best setup all winter. I would LOVE to get that kind of set up now, but I think it's not very likely to see that set up again this winter. Always a chink in the armor.

Looks pretty good. I would like to see a low that overruns from the west or sw, like the one the Canadian showed yesterday. This one on the Fv3 18z shows another low sagging down from the NW and trying to go through the mtns. Invariably it will cause a down sloping lee side min for the foothills and upstate. Is there no way to get a southern slider when it's cold enough for snow?

Fv3 would be awesome for coastal areas and maybe over to I-77, but would be yet another heartbreaker for western upstate! Got a little from Dec but missed on most of it. Missed both big storms last year; Dec 17 to the West and North, and early Jan coastal to the South and East, looks like the exact same could happen again. THIS AREA SUCKS FOR SNOW!!! If the Fv3 were to verify, CHS would have more snow than GSP for the second straight year! Maybe we'll get a shot with the next system, but that may be another NC storm.

That looks absolutely beautiful! Classic southern snowstorm. Too bad it's the Canadian and it'll never happen.